scholarly journals Estimates of the Tempo-adjusted Total Fertility Rate in Western and Eastern Germany, 1955-2008

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Luy ◽  
Olga Pötzsch
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
Eastern Germany ◽  
Western Germany ◽  
Number Of Births

In this article we present estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Western and Eastern Germany from 1955 to 2008. Tempo adjustment of the total fertility rate (TFR) requires data on the annual number of births by parity and age of the mother. Since official statistics do not provide such data for West Germany as well as Eastern Germany from 1990 on we used alternative data sources which include these specific characteristics. The combined picture of conventional TFR and tempo-adjusted TFR* provides interesting information about the trends in period fertility in Western and Eastern Germany, above all with regard to the differences between the two regions and the enormous extent of tempo effects in Eastern Germany during the 1990s. Compared to corresponding data for populations from other countries, our estimates of the tempo-adjusted TFR* for Eastern and Western Germany show plausible trends. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate presented in this paper should not be seen as being on the level of or equivalent to official statistics since they are based on different kinds of data with different degrees of quality.

scholarly journals Tempo Effects and their Relevance in Demographic Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Luy
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Demographic Analysis ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Adjusted Indicators ◽  
The Right

Demographic period indicators like the total fertility rate or life expectancy are well known since more than a century and until recently there were only minor discussions about their usefulness. This changed with a series of publications by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF) in which they claimed that these indicators are inappropriate for describing current demographic conditions when the average age at childbearing respective death is changing. Therefore, BF proposed alternative tempo-adjusted indicators for such situations which can be very useful for demographic analysis. The still existing scepticism against the BF approach and the general rejection of mortality tempo adjustment in particular have their origin in a set of misunderstandings and misinterpretations of tempo-adjusted indicators. This paper systematically describes the basic idea of tempo effects, how they can distort the commonly used conventional period indicators and how the proposed methods approximate the idea of tempo adjustment, illustrated with empirical data for West Germany. We also summarize the critiques against tempo adjustment and try to put the tempo approach in the right perspective. Finally, the paper strives for providing a better understanding when tempo-adjusted measures should be used as alternative or in addition to the commonly used conventional demographic indicators.

scholarly journals Penentuan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Fertilitas Di Indonesia Tahun 2017 Dengan Metode Multiple Classification Analysis (Analisis Data SDKI 2017)

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 241-249
Author(s):  
Vivy Maharani ◽  
Annisa Putri Ramadhanty ◽  
Galang Madya Putra ◽  
Iqbal Mukti Pratama ◽  
Risni Julaeni Yuhan
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Classification Analysis ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Multiple Classification Analysis ◽  
Multiple Classification ◽  
The Village ◽  
Number Of Births ◽  
Growing Population

Fertility is the ability to produce offspring associated with female fertility. The desired condition is for the population to grow in balance as a prerequisite for achieving a population without growth, where fertility, mortality rates are declining, and distribution is more evenly distributed. To achieve a Balanced Growing Population Condition (PTS), a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 per woman is expected in 2015. However, based on the results of the 2017 IDHS fertility rate in Indonesia is 2.4. This has not met the desired conditions to achieve the Balanced Growing Population (PTS) condition. For this problem, it is necessary to do further research to find out the factors that affect the level of fertility or the number of children born to women. In this study, researchers used the Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA) method to determine the factors that influence the number of births. The results and discussion show that a mother who knows her ovulation cycle and / or lives in a city has an average number of children who are smaller than a mother who does not know her ovulation cycle and / or resides in the village. This happens because a mother who knows her ovulation cycle is more able to control the incidence of pregnancy compared to a mother who does not know her ovulation cycle.

scholarly journals Women's Education: An Important Tool for Birth Reduction? A GMM - Poisson Regression Model Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 285-302
Author(s):  
Ali Yedan
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Age At First Birth ◽  
The Government ◽  
Number Of Births

Burkina Faso is a country with a shallow level of woman’s education. However, it is one of the most fertile countries. This paper analyzes whether the education of women reduces the number of births and the Total Fertility Rate in Burkina Faso. It also predicts the average number of births per woman and the Total Fertility Rate if women were better educated. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, I model the two-stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with the Heckman model and Poisson regression. The results show that the high fertility in Burkina Faso is mainly due to the low level of the woman’s education. The post-primary education increases the age at first birth. The number of births per woman would be decreased in the quarter and the Total Fertility Rate would pass from 5.4 to 3.6 if all women had at least completed the primary school. If all women had at least an incomplete secondary school, the number of births per woman would halve and the Total Fertility Rate would become 2.0. The government would do better to improve the education system allowing a good education for all, especially for women if it intends to reduce fertility.

scholarly journals Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time – A Trend Analysis Considering Differences between East and West Germany

2011 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lois
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Church Attendance ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Church Membership ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Federal States ◽  
Eastern Germany ◽  
East And West Germany ◽  
Western Germany ◽  
Low Levels

On the basis of ALLBUS data this paper examines for the period under observation 1980-2008 how the probability of church membership and the frequency of churchgoing change depending on age, calendar time and birth cohort. In accordance with conventional secularisation theories, it is shown for Western and Eastern Germany that the share of individuals with a religious denomination in the periods 1980-2008 and 1991-2008 is continuing to fall. The general secularisation trend is however counteracted by positive age effects on the probability of church membership (in Western and Eastern Germany) and on the frequency of churchgoing (in Western Germany). A form of secularisation which has received little attention so far in this context lies in the fact that the positive age effect on church attendance among Western German persons weakens significantly with ongoing calendar time. In view of cohort effects, it is shown for Western Germany that in particular the 1946-1953 birth cohort, which was considerably influenced by the 68 movement, is typified by low levels of religious participation. A revitalisation of ties to churches is shown in the new Federal States in the cohorts from 1961 onwards, which were socialised during the dissolution of the GDR and after reunification.

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

Mapping the United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics against new and big data sources

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-169
Author(s):  
Dominik Rozkrut ◽  
Olga Świerkot-Strużewska ◽  
Gemma Van Halderen
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Fundamental Principle ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
Development Agenda ◽  
Data Gaps ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Exciting Time ◽  
Statistical Systems

Never has there been a more exciting time to be an official statistician. The data revolution is responding to the demands of the CoVID-19 pandemic and a complex sustainable development agenda to improve how data is produced and used, to close data gaps to prevent discrimination, to build capacity and data literacy, to modernize data collection systems and to liberate data to promote transparency and accountability. But can all data be liberated in the production and communication of official statistics? This paper explores the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics in the context of eight new and big data sources. The paper concludes each data source can be used for the production of official statistics in adherence with the Fundamental Principles and argues these data sources should be used if National Statistical Systems are to adhere to the first Fundamental Principle of compiling and making available official statistics that honor citizen’s entitlement to public information.

scholarly journals POPULATION CONTROL POLICIES IN THE SPECIAL REGION OF YOGYAKARTA AFTER TOTAL FERTILITY RATE INCREASED BASED ON IDHS 2017

NATAPRAJA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-53
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Fahrudin Alfana ◽  
Agus Joko Pitoyo ◽  
Rizky Laudiansyah ◽  
Sri Sugiharti
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Library Research ◽  
Grand Design ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Special Region

This study has two main objectives. The first is to explain the achievement of the value of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY). The second is to explain the population control policy after the increase in TFR in DIY results of the 2017 IDHS. The population control policy taken by the DIY government comes from the Grand Design of Population Development document published by the People's Welfare Bureau. The method used in this study is library research. The analyst uses qualitative descriptive. The results showed that according to IDHS data, there had been fluctuations in the value of TFR during 1991-2017. In the last ten years, the pattern of TFR values in DIY has tended to increase. Population control is necessary to prevent this tendency. The policies taken by the government in the future in terms of population control in DIY include suppressing population growth rates, maturing marital age, controlling the value of TFR, and increasing the prevalence of contraception. The DIY government will implement at least this policy until 2035.

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