scholarly journals Tempo Effects and their Relevance in Demographic Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Luy
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Demographic Analysis ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Adjusted Indicators ◽  
The Right

Demographic period indicators like the total fertility rate or life expectancy are well known since more than a century and until recently there were only minor discussions about their usefulness. This changed with a series of publications by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF) in which they claimed that these indicators are inappropriate for describing current demographic conditions when the average age at childbearing respective death is changing. Therefore, BF proposed alternative tempo-adjusted indicators for such situations which can be very useful for demographic analysis. The still existing scepticism against the BF approach and the general rejection of mortality tempo adjustment in particular have their origin in a set of misunderstandings and misinterpretations of tempo-adjusted indicators. This paper systematically describes the basic idea of tempo effects, how they can distort the commonly used conventional period indicators and how the proposed methods approximate the idea of tempo adjustment, illustrated with empirical data for West Germany. We also summarize the critiques against tempo adjustment and try to put the tempo approach in the right perspective. Finally, the paper strives for providing a better understanding when tempo-adjusted measures should be used as alternative or in addition to the commonly used conventional demographic indicators.

scholarly journals Demographic forecasting of population projection in Greece: A Bayesian probabilistic study

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Lamnisos ◽  
K Giannakou ◽  
T Siligari
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Demographic Aging ◽  
The Social ◽  
Support Ratio

Abstract Background Demographic aging is an emerging issue in Greece, characterized by low fertility and increased life expectancy. Undoubtedly, demographic aging is a challenge for public health not only due to the financing of public pensions, but also for the increasing utilization of health care. Methods The total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth are projected probabilistically using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations population data for Greece from the period of 1950 to 2015. These are then converted to age-specific mortality rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of total population by sex and age groups, total fertility rate (TFR), female and male life expectancies at birth and potential support ratio PSR (persons aged 20-64 per person 65+) by the year 2100. Results The total population in Greece in 1950 was around 7.5 million, increasing to 11 million based on the 2011 population census but is projected to decline to 7.5 million at 2100. TFR has followed a strong downward trend with 1.4 children per woman in 2005-2010 and is projected to have a slight increase to 1.6 and 1.8 children per woman for 2050 and 2100 with all values being below the replacement-level fertility. Life expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 88 years for women in 2050, and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100. PSR is expected to decline dramatically from 3 in 2011 to approximately 1.5 in 2050 and 2100. Conclusions Over the years, Greece has lost its youthful structure and has acquired the characteristics of an aging population, reflecting the population distribution of Western countries. Demographic aging is harmful for the economic growth, the social security system, the social assistance, and it is closely linked to national defense and public health. A long-term multidimensional program is recommended to confront the demographic issue based on the previous international experience. Key messages Total fertility rate will be below replacement level and potential support ratio will decline dramatically. A long-term multidimensional program needs to be developed to address the demographic aging.

scholarly journals The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities

2021 ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Elena V. Budilova ◽  
◽  
Michail B. Lagutin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Aging Index ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Significance Levels ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Birth Death

Results. Comparison of groups of cities with different levels of air pollution in terms of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio revealed significant differences between the groups in 2014 (significance levels are 0.018 and 0.025, respectively) and their absence in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, in groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, an increase in the median values of the total fertility rates and the birth-death rates is noted. Comparison of groups of cities according to the aging index revealed a significant heterogeneity of groups with different levels of air pollution in 2014, 2015, 2016: significance levels are equal to 0.0007; 0.005; 0.002 respectively. In urban groups, with an increase in air pollution, the median value of the aging index decreases. Conclusion. An analysis of the relationship between demographic indicators of population health and the level of air pollution showed that the most sensitive to the level of air pollution are indicators such as the total fertility rate, the birth-death ratio and the aging index. In groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, the median values of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio increase, while the median values of the aging index decrease. The results obtained are consistent with the provisions of the theory of life history evolution. This research was performed according to the Development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “The future of the planet and global environmental change”.

scholarly journals Impact of Demographic Variables on Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58
Author(s):  
Nisar Ahmad ◽  
Sara Nayyab
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Impact

This study find the impact of demographic variables on economic growth in selected South Asian countries; Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri-Lanka using panel data from 1976 to 2017. Fertility rate and life expectancy are used as demographic variables and GDP is used to indicate the economic growth. Panel unit root tests including Levin-Lin & Chu, Im-Pesaran & Shin, ADF-Fisher χ2, PP-Fisher χ2 are applied to check the stationary of variables. Pedroni and Kao Panel Co-integration are employed to test the co-integration among variables. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimators are obtained for long run relationship. Results show that total fertility rate and life expectancy have significant impact on economic growth in these four South Asian countries. For example, one unit increase in total fertility rate depresses the economic growth by 0.106 units. However, economic growth is accelerated by 0.196 units due to one year increase in life expectancy.

scholarly journals Prediction of neonatal and maternal index based on development and population indicators: a global ecological study

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 101-105
Author(s):  
Abdollahpour Sedigheh ◽  
Miri Hamid Heidarian ◽  
Khadivzadeh Talat
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Neonatal Mortality Rate ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Economic Participation ◽  
Human Capital Index

Introduction: Although worldwide maternal and neonatal mortalities have decreased, but Achieving sustainable development goals remains an unfinished agenda and global challenge. This study aimed to predict neonatal and maternal index based on development and demographic indicators. Methods: In this ecologic study, the dependent variables were Maternal mortality ratio (MMR), Neonatal mortality rate (NMR), and Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) and the independent variables were Gender gap index (GGI) and its four components, human development, life expectancy, total fertility rate, and population growth. Data conducted using international secondary data published data bases of health metrics from 2016 to 2018 in 149 countries from WHO (World Health Organization), World Economic Forum, UNICEF (United Nations Children's Fund), and UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). Data analysis was performed using correlation model in Stata version 14.1 software. Results: In this study, economic participation and total fertility rate are positively and educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy are negatively associated with MMR. Human Capital Index, Educational attainment, and Life expectancy are negatively associated with NMR. Economic participation and total fertility rate are positively and educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy are negatively associated with U5MR. Discussion: To reduce the maternal and neonatal mortality rate, it is important to pay attention to indirect causes such as equal conditions for men and women to demographic and population indices such as economic participation, educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy.

Demographic Transition in India: Insights Into Population Growth, Composition, and Its Major Drivers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usha Ram ◽  
Faujdar Ram
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth

Globally, countries have followed demographic transition theory and transitioned from high levels of fertility and mortality to lower levels. These changes have resulted in the improved health and well-being of people in the form of extended longevity and considerable improvements in survival at all ages, specifically among children and through lower fertility, which empowers women. India, the second most populous country after China, covers 2.4% of the global surface area and holds 18% of the world’s population. The United Nations 2019 medium variant population estimates revealed that India would surpass China in the year 2030 and would maintain the first rank after 2030. The population of India would peak at 1.65 billion in 2061 and would begin to decline thereafter and reach 1.44 billion in the year 2100. Thus, India’s experience will pose significant challenges for the global community, which has expressed its concern about India’s rising population size and persistent higher fertility and mortality levels. India is a country of wide socioeconomic and demographic diversity across its states. The four large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan accounted for 37% of the country’s total population in 2011 and continue to exhibit above replacement fertility (that is, the total fertility rate, TFR, of greater than 2.1 children per woman) and higher mortality levels and thus have great potential for future population growth. For example, nationally, the life expectancy at birth in India is below 70 years (lagging by more than 3 years when compared to the world average), but the states of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan have an average life expectancy of around 65–66 years. The spatial distribution of India’s population would have a more significant influence on its future political and economic scenario. The population growth rate in Kerala may turn negative around 2036, in Andhra Pradesh (including the newly created state of Telangana) around 2041, and in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu around 2046. Conversely, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan would have 764 million people in 2061 (45% of the national total) by the time India’s population reaches around 1.65 billion. Nationally, the total fertility rate declined from about 6.5 in early 1960 to 2.3 children per woman in 2016, a result of the massive efforts to improve comprehensive maternal and child health programs and nationwide implementation of the national health mission with a greater focus on social determinants of health. However, childhood mortality rates continue to be unacceptably high in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh (for every 1,000 live births, 43 to 55 children die in these states before celebrating their 5th birthday). Intertwined programmatic interventions that focus on female education and child survival are essential to yield desired fertility and mortality in several states that have experienced higher levels. These changes would be crucial for India to stabilize its population before reaching 1.65 billion. India’s demographic journey through the path of the classical demographic transition suggests that India is very close to achieving replacement fertility.

scholarly journals Retirees and employees ratio in the context of demographic ageing in Serbia

2010 ◽  
pp. 177-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jelena Stojilkovic ◽  
Mirjana Devedzic
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
Disability Insurance ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Insurance Fund ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Future Population

Retirees, as a group of economically inactive population, are especially important for future population trends, since their number is constantly growing. Our pension and disability insurance fund has a problem managing unfavorable socioeconomic trends and demographic reality, considering that the number of employees is steadily declining. Employee to retiree ratio has been affected by serious changes during the last half a century, and it declined from 5:1 in 1960s to 1,4:1 nowadays. This is a result of population ageing (life expectancy rising and dropping of total fertility rate) and unrestrictive law that allowed pensions to those who didn't deserve it (the share of disability retirees is significantly higher than that in other countries). An additional issue is the fact that baby boom generations are a few years away from the legal age acquired for the age pension. The data used in this paper are provided by the pension and disability fund. .

scholarly journals Estimates of the Tempo-adjusted Total Fertility Rate in Western and Eastern Germany, 1955-2008

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Luy ◽  
Olga Pötzsch
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
Eastern Germany ◽  
Western Germany ◽  
Number Of Births

In this article we present estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Western and Eastern Germany from 1955 to 2008. Tempo adjustment of the total fertility rate (TFR) requires data on the annual number of births by parity and age of the mother. Since official statistics do not provide such data for West Germany as well as Eastern Germany from 1990 on we used alternative data sources which include these specific characteristics. The combined picture of conventional TFR and tempo-adjusted TFR* provides interesting information about the trends in period fertility in Western and Eastern Germany, above all with regard to the differences between the two regions and the enormous extent of tempo effects in Eastern Germany during the 1990s. Compared to corresponding data for populations from other countries, our estimates of the tempo-adjusted TFR* for Eastern and Western Germany show plausible trends. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate presented in this paper should not be seen as being on the level of or equivalent to official statistics since they are based on different kinds of data with different degrees of quality.

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

IMMUNOTHERAPY FOR NSCLC: THE RIGHT TREATMENT FOR THE RIGHT PERSON

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-41
Author(s):  
Yelena Artamonova
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Tumor Cells ◽  
Advanced Nsclc ◽  
Objective Response ◽  
Combination Group ◽  
Line Treatment ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Median Response ◽  
The Right ◽  
High Level

Lung cancer is the leading cause of mortality from malignant tumors all over the world. Since most patients at the time of diagnosis already have stage III-IV of the disease, the search for new effective treatment strategies for advanced NSCLC is the most important problem of modern oncology. The results of the study of the anti-PD1 monoclonal antibody pembrolizumab were a real breakthrough in the treatment of NSCLC. In the KEYN0TE-001 study, the expression of PD-L1 on tumor cells was validated as a predictive biomarker of the drug's efficiency. Pembrolizumab demonstrated the possibility of achieving long-term objective responses, and a 4-year 0S with all histological types in the subgroup of pre-treated patients with PD-L1 expression> 50% was 24.8% and 15.6% in the PD-L1> 1% group. In a phase 2/3 randomized study KEYN0TE-10 in the 2nd line treatment of NSCLC with PD-L1 expression > 1% pembrolizumab significantly increased life expectancy compared to docetaxel and confirmed the possibility of longterm duration of objective responses, even after cessation of treatment. Then the focus of research shifted to the 1st line of treatment. About 30% of patients with NSCLC have a high level of PD-L1 expression on tumor cells and demonstrate the most impressive response to pembrolizumab therapy. A randomized phase 3 study KEYN0TE-024 compared the effectiveness of pembrolizumab monotherapy with a standard platinum combination in patients with advanced NSCLC with a high level of PD-L1 expression without EGFR mutations or ALK translocation. Compared with the platinum doublet the administration of pembrolizumab significantly increased all estimated parameters, including the median of progression-free survival (mPFS was 10.3 months versus 6 months; HR = 0.50; 95% CI 0.37-0.68, p < 0.001), the objective response rate (ORR 44.8% versus 27.8%), duration of response (in the pembrolizumab arm the median was not reached, in the chemotherapy (CT) group - 6.3 months). Despite the approved crossover, the use of pembrolizumab in the 1st line of treatment more than doubled the life expectancy of NSCLC patients with high PD-L1 expression as compared to CT: the median overall survival (OS) was 30.0 months versus 14.2 months (HR = 0.63, p = 0.002), 1-year OS 70.3% versus 54.8%; 2-year OS - 51.5% versus 34.5%. The remaining population to study were untreated patients with any level of PD-L1 expression. A randomized phase 3 study KEYNOTE-189 evaluated the effectiveness of adding pembrolizumab to the platinum combination in the 1st line treatment of non-squamous NSCLC without EGFR and ALK mutations with any PD-L1 expression. The addition of pembrolizumab to the standard 1st line CT significantly increased all estimated efficacy indicators including OS, PFS and ORR. After a median follow-up of 10.5 months the median OS in the pembrolizumab combination group was not reached and in CT group was 11.3 months. The estimated 12-months survival was 69.2% and 49.4% respectively (HR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.38-0,64; p <0.001). The median PFS was 8.8 months versus 4.9 months, alive 1 year without progression 34.1% and 17.3% of patients respectively (HR = 0.52; p <0.001). The ORR in the group with pembrolizumab reached 47.6% versus 18.9% in CT group, moreover the tumor regressions were much longer. Finally a randomized 3-phase study KEYN0TE-407 evaluated the effectiveness of adding pembrolizumab to 1st-line CT of NSCLC with squamous histology with any PD-L1 expression. As the first analysis showed, the addition of permboli-zumab significantly increased OS of patients with squamous NSCLC, median OS 15.9 months versus 11.3 months in the groups of pembrolizumab + CT and placebo + CT respectively (HR = 0.64; 95% CI 0,49-0.95; p = 0.0006), median PFS 6.4 months and 4.8 months respectively (HR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.450.70; p <0, 0001) and OrR 57.9% versus 38.4%, the median response duration 7.7 months versus 4.8 months. Thus, the convincing advantages of using pembrolizumab in 1st line therapy were demonstrated in 3 randomized phase 3 studies: in monotherapy of NSCLC of any histological subtype with high PD-L1 expression, and in combination with CT in squamous and non-squamous hystologies regardless of the level of PD-L1 expression.

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