scholarly journals Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970–2011

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Dominiak ◽  
Ewa Lechman ◽  
Anna Okonowicz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Variations ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
The Relationship

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led to significant falls in total fertility rates in many countries. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Goldstein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970–2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. The data applied are exclusively derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between the total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous, we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

scholarly journals Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Nexus in Beijing, China

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Songling ◽  
Muhammad Ishtiaq ◽  
Bui Thi Thanh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Beijing China

In the developing economy, tourism is the most visible and steadiest growing facade. Tourism is considered one of the rapidly increasing elements for economic development from the last two decades. Therefore, the proposed study used vector autoregression (VAR) model, error correction model (ECM), and the Granger causality to check the relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth based on the data of the Beijing municipal bureau of statistics from 1994 to 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a replacement variable for the economic growth index, while internal tourism revenue is used as a tourism industry indicator. The study supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis proposed in the existing literature in a different survey of tourism and economic development. The results show that there is a strong relationship in the tourism industry and economic growth in the context of Beijing, and at the same time, tourism creates a more significant increase in long run local real economic accomplishments. The results of the VAR model confirm that in the long run, Beijing’s economic growth is affected by domestic tourism, while the ECM model shows unidirectional results in the short term. Similarly, there is a one-way causal relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth in Beijing, China. The empirical results are in strong support of the concept that tourism causes growth.

scholarly journals Non-bank financial institutions and economic growth: Evidence from Africa’s three largest economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Rateiwa ◽  
Meshach J. Aziakpono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Background: In order for the post-2015 world development agenda – termed the sustainable development goals (SDGs) – to succeed, there is a pronounced need to ensure that available resources are used more effectively and additional financing is accessed from the private sector. Given that traditional bank lending has slowed down, the development of non-bank financing has become imperative. To this end, this article intends to empirically test the role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in stimulating economic growth.Aim: The aim of this article is to empirically test the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the development of NBFIs, and the causality thereof.Setting: The empirical assessment uses time-series data from Africa’s three largest economies, namely, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, over the period 1971–2013.Methods: This article uses the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model within a country-specific setting.Results: The results showed that the long-run relationship between NBFI development and economic growth is relatively stronger in Egypt and South Africa, than in Nigeria. Evidence in respect of Nigeria shows that such a relationship is weak. The nature of the relationship between NBFI development and economic growth in Egypt is positive and significant, and predominantly bidirectional. This suggests that a virtuous relationship between NBFIs and economic growth exists in Egypt. In South Africa, the relationship is positive and significant and predominantly runs from NBFI development to economic growth, implying a supply-leading phenomenon. In Nigeria, the results are weak and mixed.Conclusion: The study concludes that in countries with more developed financial systems, the role of NBFIs and their importance to the economic growth process are more pronounced. Thus, there is need for developing policies targeted at developing the NBFI sector, given their potential to contribute to economic growth.

A NOTE ON INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND INCOME INEQUALITY

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Jin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Endogenous Growth Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Negative Growth

This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model with capital and skill heterogeneity to analyze the relationship among inflation, growth, and income inequality. In the model inflation, growth, and inequality are jointly determined. We show that an increase in the long-run money growth rate raises inflation and reduces growth, but its effect on income inequality depends on the relative importance of the two types of heterogeneity. Inequality shrinks with the rise of inflation when capital heterogeneity dominates and enlarges when skill heterogeneity dominates. Therefore, our model supports a negative (positive) inflation–inequality relationship and a positive (negative) growth–inequality relationship when capital (skill) heterogeneity dominates. In any event, inflation and growth are negatively related.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

scholarly journals How do Poverty and Income Inequality affect Economic Growth in Developing Countries?

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 547-558
Author(s):  
Hamza Saleem ◽  
Fatima Farooq ◽  
Muhammad Aurmaghan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
World Development

The major objective of this research is to examine the relationship between poverty, income inequality and economic growth from some selected developing countries. This study uses panel data for the period of 2002-2015. All the data is taken from world development indicators (WDI). To find out the results, we have used Hausman test an econometrics technique for panel data in this research. The results of the study indicate that poverty and income inequality have a negative impact on economic growth on the other hand Gross capital formation, labor force, total population and government consumption and expenditure have a positive impact on economic growth. The result tells us that changes in these variables have a significant and positive effect on the dependent variable. To achieve the goal of economic growth developing countries should reduce poverty and take meaningful steps to overcome the problem of inequality in the society which can be very helpful in achieving the goal of economic growth.

scholarly journals Getting to Africa’s Demographic Dividend

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-96
Author(s):  
Jakkie Cilliers
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn this chapter, Cilliers defines the demographic dividend and explains its relationship to economic growth, with a focus on the African continent. It first covers the fundamentals of the relationship between population and economics, then offers an in-depth discussion of two key concepts, the demographic transition and demographic dividend. The chapter demonstrates that sub-Saharan Africa’s high fertility rates are a drag on development rather than an advantage, as the region can only expect to enjoy a demographic dividend after mid-century. It then uses scenario analysis to demonstrate that, given the right policy conditions, Africa can accelerate population-driven economic growth by reducing its fertility rate through interventions in education, infrastructure, human capital and, most importantly, women’s empowerment.

scholarly journals Moderating Effect of Political Instability on ICT and Economic Growth Nexus in Kenya: ARDL Bound - Co-Integration Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matundura Erickson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
The Relationship

The government has attempted to target specific macroeconomic factors in order to stimulate economic growth in Kenya through monetary and fiscal policies. Despite these efforts, Kenya's GDP growth is hampered by high interest rates and high interest rate volatility. Kenya's ability to address macroeconomic instability hinges on its ability to increase economic growth. Auxiliary evidence shows that perspectives on the relationship between ICT and economic growth are segmented. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of ICT on economic growth in Kenya, as well as the moderating effect of political instability on the relationship. The research was based on Solow's theory of growth. An explanatory research design was used, with data spanning from 1990-2020 obtained from Kenya Bureau of Statistics. In the empirical analysis, the study used the bound test to test for a long-run relationship and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to evaluate the relationship between the variables. The data was subjected to an Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test to determine stationarity.The long run ARDL results indicated that the coefficients of; ICT rate were insignificant . However with the introduction of political instability as the moderator ICT was significant and positively affected economic growth. Political instability moderated the relationship between ICT ( and economic growth. As a result, promoting effective governance should help to improve political stability. The findings of this study will help the government figure out how to address the problem of low economic growth. According to the study, the government should invest in the ICT sector to improve its accessibility and affordability. Additionally, the government should work to improve political stability and good governance by gradually establishing institutions that uphold the rule of law and provide security.

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