scholarly journals Population risk factors for severe disease and mortality in COVID-19: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0247461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Booth ◽  
Angus Bruno Reed ◽  
Sonia Ponzo ◽  
Arrash Yassaee ◽  
Mert Aral ◽  
...  

Aim COVID-19 clinical presentation is heterogeneous, ranging from asymptomatic to severe cases. While there are a number of early publications relating to risk factors for COVID-19 infection, low sample size and heterogeneity in study design impacted consolidation of early findings. There is a pressing need to identify the factors which predispose patients to severe cases of COVID-19. For rapid and widespread risk stratification, these factors should be easily obtainable, inexpensive, and avoid invasive clinical procedures. The aim of our study is to fill this knowledge gap by systematically mapping all the available evidence on the association of various clinical, demographic, and lifestyle variables with the risk of specific adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Methods The systematic review was conducted using standardized methodology, searching two electronic databases (PubMed and SCOPUS) for relevant literature published between 1st January 2020 and 9th July 2020. Included studies reported characteristics of patients with COVID-19 while reporting outcomes relating to disease severity. In the case of sufficient comparable data, meta-analyses were conducted to estimate risk of each variable. Results Seventy-six studies were identified, with a total of 17,860,001 patients across 14 countries. The studies were highly heterogeneous in terms of the sample under study, outcomes, and risk measures reported. A large number of risk factors were presented for COVID-19. Commonly reported variables for adverse outcome from COVID-19 comprised patient characteristics, including age >75 (OR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.81–3.90), male sex (OR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.39–3.04) and severe obesity (OR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.31–5.05). Active cancer (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.04–2.04) was associated with increased risk of severe outcome. A number of common symptoms and vital measures (respiratory rate and SpO2) also suggested elevated risk profiles. Conclusions Based on the findings of this study, a range of easily assessed parameters are valuable to predict elevated risk of severe illness and mortality as a result of COVID-19, including patient characteristics and detailed comorbidities, alongside the novel inclusion of real-time symptoms and vital measurements.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Booth ◽  
Angus Bruno Reed ◽  
Sonia Ponzo ◽  
Arrash Yassaee ◽  
Mert Aral ◽  
...  

AbstractAimCOVID-19 clinical presentation is heterogeneous, ranging from asymptomatic to severe cases. While there are a number of early publications relating to risk factors for COVID-19 infection, low sample size and heterogeneity in study design impacted consolidation of early findings. There is a pressing need to identify the factors which predispose patients to severe cases of COVID-19. For rapid and widespread risk stratification, these factors should be easily obtainable, inexpensive, and avoid invasive clinical procedures. The aim of our study is to fill this knowledge gap by systematically mapping all the available evidence on the association of various clinical, demographic, and lifestyle variables with the risk of specific adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19.MethodsThe systematic review was conducted using standardized methodology, searching three electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science) for relevant literature published between 1st January 2020 and 9th July 2020. Included studies reported characteristics of patients with COVID-19 while reporting outcomes relating to disease severity. In the case of sufficient comparable data, meta-analyses were conducted to estimate risk of each variable.ResultsSeventy-six studies were identified, with a total of 17,860,001 patients across 14 countries. The studies were highly heterogeneous in terms of the sample under study, outcomes, and risk measures reported. A large number of risk factors were presented for COVID-19. Commonly reported variables for adverse outcome from COVID-19 comprised patient characteristics, including age >75 (OR = 2.65 (1.81–3.90)), male sex (OR = 2.05(1.39–3.04)) and severe obesity (OR = 2.57 (1.31–5.05)). Active cancer (OR = 1.46 (1.04–2.04)) was associated with increased risk of severe outcome. A number of common symptoms and vital measures (respiratory rate and SpO2) also suggested elevated risk profiles.ConclusionsBased on the findings of this study, a range of easily assessed parameters are valuable to predict elevated risk of severe illness and mortality as a result of COVID-19, including patient characteristics and detailed comorbidities, alongside the novel inclusion of real-time symptoms and vital measurements.


Author(s):  
Kunchok Dorjee ◽  
Hyunju Kim

AbstractIntroductionProgression of COVID-19 to severe disease and death is insufficiently understood.ObjectiveSummarize the prevalence adverse outcomes, risk factors, and association of risk factors with adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients.MethodsWe searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science for case-series and observational studies of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through May 22, 2020. Data were analyzed by fixed-effects meta-analysis, using Shore’s adjusted confidence intervals to address heterogeneity.ResultsForty-four studies comprising 20594 hospitalized patients met inclusion criteria; 12591 from the US-Europe and 7885 from China. Pooled prevalence of death [%(95% CI)] was 18% (15-22%). Of those that died, 76% were aged≥ 60 years, 68% were males, and 63%, 38%, and 29% had hypertension, diabetes and heart disease, respectively. The case fatality risk [%(95% CI)] were 62% (48-78) for heart disease, 51% (36-71) for COPD, and 42% (34-50) for age≥ 60 years and 49% (33-71) for chronic kidney disease (CKD). Summary relative risk (sRR) of death were higher for age≥ 60 years [sRR=3.8; 95% CI: 2.9-4.8; n=12 studies], males [1.3; 1.2-1.5; 17], smoking history [1.9; 1.1-3.3; n=6], COPD [2.0; 1.6-2.4; n=9], hypertension [1.8; 1.7-2.0; n=14], diabetes [1.5; 1.4-1.7; n=16], heart disease [2.0; 1.7-2.4; 16] and CKD [2.0; 1.3-3.1; 8]. The overall prevalence of hypertension (55%), diabetes (31%) and heart disease (16%) among COVODI-19 patients in the US were substantially higher than the general US population.ConclusionsPublic health screening for COVID-19 can be prioritized based on risk-groups. A higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in COVID-19 patients can suggest increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition in the population.


Author(s):  
Panagiotis Paliogiannis ◽  
Arduino Aleksander Mangoni ◽  
Michela Cangemi ◽  
Alessandro Giuseppe Fois ◽  
Ciriaco Carru ◽  
...  

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is responsible for the most threatening pandemic in modern history. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate the associations between serum albumin concentrations and COVID-19 disease severity and adverse outcomes. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, from inception to October 30, 2020. Sixty-seven studies in 19,760 COVID-19 patients (6141 with severe disease or poor outcome) were selected for analysis. Pooled results showed that serum albumin concentrations were significantly lower in patients with severe disease or poor outcome (standard mean difference, SMD: − 0.99 g/L; 95% CI, − 1.11 to − 0.88, p < 0.001). In multivariate meta-regression analysis, age (t =  − 2.13, p = 0.043), publication geographic area (t = 2.16, p = 0.040), white blood cell count (t =  − 2.77, p = 0.008) and C-reactive protein (t =  − 2.43, p = 0.019) were significant contributors of between-study variance. Therefore, lower serum albumin concentrations are significantly associated with disease severity and adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients. The assessment of serum albumin concentrations might assist with early risk stratification and selection of appropriate care pathways in this group.


Thorax ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. thoraxjnl-2020-215322
Author(s):  
Hyun Woo Lee ◽  
Chang-Hwan Yoon ◽  
Eun Jin Jang ◽  
Chang-Hoon Lee

BackgroundThe association of ACE inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) with disease severity of patients with COVID-19 is still unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate if ACEI/ARB use is associated with the risk of mortality and severe disease in patients with COVID-19.MethodsWe searched all available clinical studies that included patients with confirmed COVID-19 who could be classified into an ACEI/ARB group and a non-ACEI/ARB group up until 4 May 2020. A meta-analysis was performed, and primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and severe disease.ResultsACEI/ARB use did not increase the risk of all-cause mortality both in meta-analysis for 11 studies with 12 601 patients reporting ORs (OR=0.52 (95% CI=0.37 to 0.72), moderate certainty of evidence) and in 2 studies with 8577 patients presenting HRs. For 12 848 patients in 13 studies, ACEI/ARB use was not related to an increased risk of severe disease in COVID-19 (OR=0.68 (95% CI=0.44 to 1.07); I2=95%, low certainty of evidence).ConclusionsACEI/ARB therapy was not associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality or severe manifestations in patients with COVID-19. ACEI/ARB therapy can be continued without concern of drug-related worsening in patients with COVID-19.


BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. e019468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bongani Brian Nkambule ◽  
Zibusiso Mkandla ◽  
Tinashe Mutize ◽  
Phiwayinkosi Vusi Dludla

IntroductionThe incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is now at least threefold higher in HIV-infected patients as compared with the general population. Although platelet activation and reactivity are implicated in the development of CVDs in HIV-infected patients, its precise role remains inconclusive. We aim to assess the association between platelet activation and selected cardiovascular risk factors in HIV-1-infected individuals on highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART).MethodsThis will be a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies evaluating the association between platelet activation and CVD risk factors in HAART-treated adults. The search strategy will include medical subject headings words for MEDLINE, and this will be adapted to Embase search headings (Emtree) terms for the EMBASE database. The search will cover literature published between 1 January 1996 to 30 April 2017. Studies will be independently screened by two reviewers using predefined criteria. Relevant eligible full texts will be screened; data will be extracted, and a qualitative synthesis will be conducted. Data extraction will be performed using Review Manager V.5.3. To assess the quality and strengths of evidence across selected studies, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment Development and Evaluation approach will be used. The Cochran’s Q statistic and the I2statistics will be used to analyse statistical heterogeneity between studies. If included studies show high levels of homogeneity, a random effects meta-analysis will be performed using R statistical software.Ethics and disseminationThis will be a review of existing studies and will not require ethical approval. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication and presented at local and international conferences. An emerging patient management dilemma is that of the increased incidence of CVD in people living with HIV on HAART. This review may inform treatment and cardiovascular risk stratification of HIV-infected patients at increased risk of developing CVD.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42017062393.


2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Proietti ◽  
G.F Romiti ◽  
V Raparelli ◽  
I Diemberger ◽  
G Boriani ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Frailty is a clinical syndrome characterized by a reduced physiologic function, increased vulnerability to stressors, and an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (AF) are often burdened with a high number of comorbidities and prone to frailty. The prevalence of frailty, its management and association with major outcomes in patients with AF are still unclear. Purpose To estimate the pooled prevalence of frailty in patients with AF, as well as its association with AF-related risk factors and comorbidities, oral anticoagulants (OAC) prescription, and major outcomes. Methods We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE, from inception to 31st January 2021, for studies reporting the prevalence of frailty (irrespective of the tool used for assessment). Pooled prevalence, odds ratio (OR), and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were computed using random-effect models; heterogeneity was assessed through the inconsistency index (I2). This study was registered in PROSPERO: CRD42021235854. Results A total of 1,116 studies were retrieved from the literature search, and 31 were finally included in the systematic review (n=842,521 patients). The frailty pooled prevalence was 39.6% (95% CI=29.2%-51.0%, I2=100%; Figure 1). Significant subgroup differences were observed according to geographical location (higher prevalence found in European-based cohorts; p=0.003) and type of tool used for the assessment (higher prevalence in studies using the Clinical Frailty Scale and Tilburg Frailty Index tools; p&lt;0.001). Meta-regressions showed that study-level mean age and prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and history of stroke were directly associated with frailty prevalence. Frailty was significantly associated with a 29% reduced probability of OAC prescription in observational studies (OR=0.71, 95% CI=0.62–0.81). Frail patients with AF were at higher risk of all-cause death (OR=4.12, 95% CI=3.15–5.41), ischemic stroke (OR=1.55, 95% CI=1.01–2.38), and bleeding (OR=1.55, 95% CI=1.12–2.14), compared to non-frail patients with AF. Conclusions In this systematic review and meta-analysis analysis, the prevalence of frailty was high in patients with AF, and associated with study-level mean age and prevalence of several stroke risk factors. Frailty may influence the management of patients, and worsening the prognosis for all major AF-related outcomes. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Prevalence of Frailty among AF patients


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e000774
Author(s):  
Fatema Alrashed ◽  
Robert Battat ◽  
Israa Abdullah ◽  
Aline Charabaty ◽  
Mohammad Shehab

BackgroundDuring COVID-19 pandemic, the safety of medical therapies for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in relation to COVID-19 has emerged as an area of concern. This study aimed to evaluate the association between IBD therapies and severe COVID-19 outcomes.MethodWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of all published studies from December 2019 to August 2021 to identify studies that reported severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients on current IBD therapies including 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA), immunomodulators, corticosteroids, biologics, combination therapy, or tofacitinib.ResultsTwenty-two studies were identified. Corticosteroids (risk ratio (RR) 1.91 (95% CI 1.25 to 2.91, p=0.003)) and 5-ASA (RR 1.50 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.93, p=0.001)) were associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients with IBD patients. However, possible confounders for 5-ASA use were not controlled for. Sub-analysis showed that corticosteroids increased the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission but not mortality. Immunomodulators alone (RR 1.18 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.59, p=0.28)) or in combination with anti-TNFs ((RR 0.96 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.15, p=0.63)), tofacitinib (RR 0.81 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.33, p=0.40)) and vedolizumab ((RR 1.02 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.31, p=0.89)) were not associated with severe disease. Anti-TNFs (RR 0.47 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.54, p<0.00001)) and ustekinumab (RR 0.55 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.72, p<0.00001)) were associated with decreased risk of severe COVID-19.ConclusionIn patients with IBD, the risk of severe COVID-19 is higher among patients receiving corticosteroids. Corticosteroid use was associated with ICU admission but not mortality. The risk is also higher among patients receiving 5-ASAs. However, patient-level data were lacking and insufficient data existed for meta-regression analyses to adjust for confounding. Vedolizumab, tofacitinib, and immunomodulators alone or in combination with anti-TNF were not associated with severe disease. Anti-TNFs, and ustekinumab were associated with favourable outcomes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaoqun Ma ◽  
Dingyuan Tu ◽  
Jiawei Gu ◽  
Qiang Xu ◽  
Pan Hou ◽  
...  

Objective: Cardiac injury is detected in numerous patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been demonstrated to be closely related to poor outcomes. However, an optimal cardiac biomarker for predicting COVID-19 prognosis has not been identified.Methods: The PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase databases were searched for published articles between December 1, 2019 and September 8, 2021. Eligible studies that examined the anomalies of different cardiac biomarkers in patients with COVID-19 were included. The prevalence and odds ratios (ORs) were extracted. Summary estimates and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were obtained through meta-analyses.Results: A total of 63 studies, with 64,319 patients with COVID-19, were enrolled in this meta-analysis. The prevalence of elevated cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and myoglobin (Mb) in the general population with COVID-19 was 22.9 (19–27%) and 13.5% (10.6–16.4%), respectively. However, the presence of elevated Mb was more common than elevated cTnI in patients with severe COVID-19 [37.7 (23.3–52.1%) vs.30.7% (24.7–37.1%)]. Moreover, compared with cTnI, the elevation of Mb also demonstrated tendency of higher correlation with case-severity rate (Mb, r = 13.9 vs. cTnI, r = 3.93) and case-fatality rate (Mb, r = 15.42 vs. cTnI, r = 3.04). Notably, elevated Mb level was also associated with higher odds of severe illness [Mb, OR = 13.75 (10.2–18.54) vs. cTnI, OR = 7.06 (3.94–12.65)] and mortality [Mb, OR = 13.49 (9.3–19.58) vs. cTnI, OR = 7.75 (4.4–13.66)] than cTnI.Conclusions: Patients with COVID-19 and elevated Mb levels are at significantly higher risk of severe disease and mortality. Elevation of Mb may serve as a marker for predicting COVID-19-related adverse outcomes.Prospero Registration Number:https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020175133, CRD42020175133.


2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
B Corica ◽  
G.F Romiti ◽  
V Raparelli ◽  
R Cangemi ◽  
S Basili ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Long-term anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) imposes a careful balance between the thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risks. An association between cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) and an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) has already been described; however, conflicting evidence exist on the association with ischemic stroke (IS). Although CMBs are often observed in AF patients, the actual prevalence and the magnitude of the risk of adverse events in patients with CMBs is unclear. Purpose We aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of CMBs in patients with AF through a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature. Additionally, we evaluated the risk of ICH and IS according to the presence and burden of CMBs. Methods We perform a systematic search on PubMed and EMBASE from inception to 6th March 2021. We included all studies reporting the prevalence of CMBs, the incidence of ICH and/or IS in AF by presence of CMBs. Pooled prevalence and odds ratios (OR), along with their 95% Confidence Intervals (CI), were computed using random-effect models; we also calculated 95% Prediction Intervals (PI) for each outcome investigated. Additionally, we performed subgroup analyses according to the number and localization of CMBs. Results We retrieved 562 records from the literature search, and 17 studies were finally included. Pooled prevalence of CMBs in AF population was 28.3% (95% CI: 23.8%-33.4%; 95% PI: 12.2%-52.9%, Figure 1). Individuals with CMBs showed a higher risk of both ICH (OR: 3.04, 95% CI: 1.83–5.06) and IS (OR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.26–2.49). Moreover, patients with more than 5 CMBs, as well as patients with both lobar and mixed CMBs, showed a higher risk of ICH. Conclusions CMBs were found in 28.3% of AF patients, with 95% PIs indicating a potentially higher prevalence. Moreover, CMBs were associated with an increased risk of both ICH and IS, with the effect potentially modulated by their number and localization. CMBs may represent an important and often overlooked risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with AF. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Prevalence of CMBs in patients with AF


Author(s):  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Han Han ◽  
Tianhui He ◽  
Kristen E Labbe ◽  
Adrian V Hernandez ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Previous studies have indicated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with cancer have a high fatality rate. Methods We conducted a systematic review of studies that reported fatalities in COVID-19 patients with cancer. A comprehensive meta-analysis that assessed the overall case fatality rate and associated risk factors was performed. Using individual patient data, univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for each variable with outcomes. Results We included 15 studies with 3019 patients, of which 1628 were men; 41.0% were from the United Kingdom and Europe, followed by the United States and Canada (35.7%), and Asia (China, 23.3%). The overall case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients with cancer measured 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.3% to 28.0%). Univariate analysis revealed age (OR = 3.57, 95% CI = 1.80 to 7.06), male sex (OR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.13), and comorbidity (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.04 to 3.85) were associated with increased risk of severe events (defined as the individuals being admitted to the intensive care unit, or requiring invasive ventilation, or death). In multivariable analysis, only age greater than 65 years (OR = 3.16, 95% CI = 1.45 to 6.88) and being male (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.87) were associated with increased risk of severe events. Conclusions Our analysis demonstrated that COVID-19 patients with cancer have a higher fatality rate compared with that of COVID-19 patients without cancer. Age and sex appear to be risk factors associated with a poorer prognosis.


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