scholarly journals The effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL investigation

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0248743
Author(s):  
Md Mazharul Islam ◽  
Majed Alharthi ◽  
Md Wahid Murad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unemployment Problem

Objective While macroeconomic and environmental events affect the overall economic performance of nations, there has not been much research on the effects of important macroeconomic and environmental variables and how these can influence progress. Saudi Arabia’s economy relies heavily on its vast reserves of petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, gold, and copper, but its economic growth trajectory has been uneven since the 1990s. This study examines the effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Methods Annual time series dataset covering the period 1990–2019 has been extracted from the World Bank and General Authority of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Saudi Arabia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration has served to investigate the long-run relationships among the variables. Several time-series diagnostic tests have been conducted on the long-term ARDL model to check its robustness. Results Saudi Arabia can still achieve higher economic growth without effectively addressing its unemployment problem as both the variables are found to be highly significantly but positively cointegrated in the long-run ARDL model. While the variable of carbon emissions demonstrated a negative effect on the nation’s economic growth, the variables of rainfall and temperate were to some extent cointegrated into the nation’s economic growth in negative and positive ways, respectively. Like most other nations the short-run effects of inflation and population on economic growth do vary, but their long-term effects on the same are found to be positive. Conclusions Saudi Arabia can achieve both higher economic growth and lower carbon emissions simultaneously even without effectively addressing the unemployment problem. The nation should utilize modern scientific technologies to annual rainfall losses and to reduce annual temperature in some parts of the country in order to achieve higher economic growth.

scholarly journals Crop Production, Livestock Production and Economic Growth in Botswana (1990-2017): An Application of ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1500-1508
Author(s):  
Mufaro Andrew Matandare ◽  
Patricia Masego Makepe ◽  
Lekgatlhamang Setlhare ◽  
Jonah Bajaki Tlhalefang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach

There are few studies in Botswana which have examined the relationship between agriculture and economic growth. The uniqueness of this study is grounded in investigating disintegrated agriculture components into crop production and livestock production and investigating their nexus with economic growth. This study estimated the short and long term effects between crop production, livestock production and economic growth in Botswana for the period 1990 to 2017. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to investigate the stated relationship. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between crop production, livestock production and economic growth. Results indicated that livestock production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. On the other hand crop production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth only in the long run. Efforts towards supporting agricultural sector growth should be emphasized to promote agricultural sector productivity in a bid to forge a move away from dependence on imports of food in Botswana. To enhance economic growth, in both the short run and long run, the government of Botswana and all relevant stakeholders should invest in and promote livestock production. In the long term, policies that foster crop production are essential for economic growth.

scholarly journals INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 401
Author(s):  
Feri Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

<p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>This study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate  terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model  (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.</em><em></em></p><p align="right"> </p>

scholarly journals CFCs and Rising Global Temperature During 1969-1998: A Time Series Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Partha Gangopadhyay ◽  
Baljeet Singh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Historical Fact

This paper seeks to assess if there is any evidence that Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have caused global warming during 1969 to 1998. The choice of the period of study is driven by the historical fact that the accumulation of CFCs in the atmosphere increased during this phase and the global temperature also registered steady increases. By exploiting a data set on accumulated CFCs along with changes in the global temperature we bring two new insights to the literature on global warming and CFCs: first and foremost, we introduce an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to capture the long-term relationship between CFCs and global warming. By doing this we establish that a statistically significant long-run relationship exists between CFCs and global warming. Secondly, we also establish that the nature of this relationship is rather counter-intuitive: the growth in the concentration of CFCs in the atmosphere, as our study finds, has reduced the increases in the global temperature during 1969 -1998. There is thus little empirical support that the CFCs are a source of global warming.

scholarly journals Financial Development and Stock Traded Contributions towards Economic Growth

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-8
Author(s):  
Shehper Maryam Zafar ◽  
Nadia Bukhari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Term Impact

This purpose of this research is check the long run as well as short run impact of Financial Development and Stock traded on the economic growth in the scenario of Pakistan. The time series data has taken for the year 1988-2013. This paper utilized ARDL methodology to determine long-term impact of Financial Development and Stock Traded on Economic growth. Further Granger Causality Check has used to check a uni-directional relationship. The results of this test support that FD and stock traded has a uni-directional impact over economic growth. Further, it has depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FD and Economic Growth as well as Stock Traded and Economic Growth.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Education Outputs, Education Expenditure, and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 320
Author(s):  
Benlaria Houcine ◽  
Messen Kerroumia ◽  
Emad Abdel Khalek Saber El-Tahan ◽  
Tarig Osman Abdallah Helal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Relationship

The present study investigated the relationship between education outputs, Education expenditure, and economic growth in Saudi Arabia for the time period of 1986–2016. The results obtained after employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model revealed a long-term relationship between the studied variables, an inverse relationship between the number of graduates and growth in the long term, whereas a non-significant positive relationship appeared in the short -term. Findings indicate also that public spending in education has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, he observed that a 1% increase in public expenditure in education contributes 18% increase in GDP per capita in the long run. This is in line with economic theory and previous research showing that expenditure on education leads to a rise in GDP per capita and economic growth rates. The recommendations of this study are fundamental to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

scholarly journals (The causal relationship between Saudi women's empowerment and economic growth (mid-2015-1999: العلاقة السببية بين تمكين المرأة السعودية والنمو الاقتصادي للفترة (1999- 2015)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoq Habab Al-Juaid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
General Education ◽  
Community Education ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Saudi Women ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Long Run

This research aims to identify the effect of the economic empowerment of Saudi women on economic growth during the period (1990 - 2015). The researcher used the descriptive analytical method. In its study, it adopted the standard methods of unit root testing to test the stability of time series. The results of the test showed that the time series of the variables studied were first-class. The results found that there was a relationship between economic growth and the proportion of girls in general education in the long term. The results also showed a relationship between economic growth and dependency ratio in the long term. Gangerger's causality test showed a positive, one-way relationship between economic growth and the proportion of girls in public education in the long run, indicating that economic growth affects the increase in girls 'education, while girls' education does not affect economic growth. The results did not show any statistically significant relationship between economic growth and women's participation in the labor market. In light of these results, the study presented a number of recommendations, the most important of which are: To find the best ways to activate the vision of 2030, especially the items related to empowering women and raising their contribution to the GDP; opening the fields for women to have their own work through raising awareness among the community; Education and workshops for women, and abandon the legacy that hinders women's work and participation in economic life.

scholarly journals Analysis of FDI and Financial improvements for the Economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-32
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Atiq ul Rahman Malik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Term Impact

This study is conducted in order to check the long run as well as short run impact of FDI and Financial Development on the economic growth. The study is conducted in the scenario of Pakistan and the time series data is taken for the year 1972-2013. ARDL methodology is used to determine whether FDI has long-term impact on Economic growth or not. Moreover, Granger Causality is used to check a uni-directional relationship and the results support that FDI has an impact over economic growth. Further, it is depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FDI and Economic Growth.

scholarly journals Intermediary performance of Islamic banks in the disruption era: Does it contribute to economic growth?

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-115
Author(s):  
Umrotul Khasanah ◽  
Ahmad Tibrizi Soni Wicaksono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models

The study aims to measure the intermediary performance of Islamic banks in relation to economic growth in Indonesia in the short and long term. There are four main variables used, namely financing, fund placement in BI (Central Bank of Indonesia), investment in securities, and third-party funds in all Islamic banks from 2007 to 2019. The data were tested using vector error correction models (VECM), Granger Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Variant Decomposition (VDC) to examine causality relationships, the short- and long-term effects, shocks, and variances in Islamic bank intermediary performance to economic growth. The results show that there is a two-way causality relationship between financing and third-party funds to economic growth. While in the short term, fund placement in BI, investment in securities, and financing have a significant influence on economic growth, but in the long run, only the placement of funds in BI will affect economic growth. Also, only fund placement in BI can shock and significantly contribute to economic growth in the long term. The overall intermediary performance of Islamic banks has not contributed to Indonesia’s economic growth in the long term.

scholarly journals The effect of CO2 emissions in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. 012026
Author(s):  
Z Yusuf ◽  
Wardhiah ◽  
G Syamni ◽  
M J A Siregar ◽  
Y A Sitepu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
The Government

Abstract This study was conducted to examine the effect of the variable use of CO2 emission gas and export variables on Indonesia’s economic growth. The data used in this study are time series data from the two variables for the period 2004 to 2019. All data were obtained from the world bank and accessed through the www.data.worldbank.org. The data analysis method used in this study uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model approach. The ARDL model is used to examine the short-term and long-term effects of CO2 gas emission variables and export variables. The results of the study found that the variable use of CO2 emission gas in the short term had a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. The export variable has a significant positive effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, in the long term, the variable use of CO2 emission gas and the export variable has no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth. This finding shows that Indonesia’s economic growth is still determined by exports, but in the long term the government must work harder to increase its exports. In addition, export activities must not lead to the use of excessive CO2 emissions.

scholarly journals Neocolonialism and the Ecological Crisis of the Suez Canal

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritapa Neogi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Suez Canal ◽  
Ecological Crisis ◽  
High Poverty ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Oil Tankers ◽  
Port Said

Since its construction in the mid-1800’s, Egypt’s Suez Canal has been a source of international conflict, economic growth, and ecological turmoil. Because it regularly transports a large number of oil tankers from the Suez Port to Port Said, the canal is one of the most valuable waterways in the world. However, in linking the Mediterranean and Red Sea, the canal has caused hundreds of invasive species to migrate to the Mediterranean -- most notably invasive sea jellies. This has led to damaging effects on industries surrounding the welfare of the sea; for example, fisheries and tourism. In late 2015, despite these ecological concerns, the canal was expanded to include a parallel channel, allowing for two-way travel. While supporters envisioned positive transformations to Egypt’s high poverty and unemployment rates, the expansion’s possible long-term effects on the ocean and industries based on the ocean were neglected in discussion. My goal is to examine these ongoing effects and their consequences on humans whose livelihoods depend on the Mediterranean Sea as a resource, with a focus on how the influx of migrating species, specifically gelatinous zooplankton, have already affected fisheries, agriculture, and tourism. I also look at the eutrophication of nearby waters through chemical disposal from local factories, one of the causes of jellyfish blooms. While the Suez Canal has led to much economic growth for Egypt, the waterway’s growing negative ecological effects may override its positive influences in the long run.

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