scholarly journals Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: A competing risk survival analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0249231
Author(s):  
Gerine Nijman ◽  
Maike Wientjes ◽  
Jordache Ramjith ◽  
Nico Janssen ◽  
Jacobien Hoogerwerf ◽  
...  

Background To date, survival data on risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in western Europe is limited, and none of the published survival studies have used a competing risk approach. This study aims to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands, considering recovery as a competing risk. Methods In this observational multicenter cohort study we included adults with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection that were admitted to one of five hospitals in the Netherlands (March to May 2020). We performed a competing risk survival analysis, presenting cause-specific hazard ratios (HRCS) for the effect of preselected factors on the absolute risk of death and recovery. Results 1,006 patients were included (63.9% male; median age 69 years, IQR: 58–77). Patients were hospitalized for a median duration of 6 days (IQR: 3–13); 243 (24.6%) of them died, 689 (69.9%) recovered, and 74 (7.4%) were censored. Patients with higher age (HRCS 1.10, 95% CI 1.08–1.12), immunocompromised state (HRCS 1.46, 95% CI 1.08–1.98), who used anticoagulants or antiplatelet medication (HRCS 1.38, 95% CI 1.01–1.88), with higher modified early warning score (MEWS) (HRCS 1.09, 95% CI 1.01–1.18), and higher blood LDH at time of admission (HRCS 6.68, 95% CI 1.95–22.8) had increased risk of death, whereas fever (HRCS 0.70, 95% CI 0.52–0.95) decreased risk of death. We found no increased mortality risk in male patients, high BMI or diabetes. Conclusion Our competing risk survival analysis confirms specific risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in a the Netherlands, which can be used for prediction research, more intense in-hospital monitoring or prioritizing particular patients for new treatments or vaccination.

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-41
Author(s):  
Yueh-Che Hsieh ◽  
Po-Yang Tsou ◽  
Yu-Hsun Wang ◽  
Christin Chih-Ting Chao ◽  
Wan-Chien Lee ◽  
...  

Objectives: Predictors for post-sepsis myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke are yet to be identified due to the competing risk of death. Methods: This study included all hospitalized patients with sepsis from National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of MI and stroke requiring hospitalization within 180 days following hospital discharge from the index sepsis episode. The association between predictors and post-sepsis MI and stroke were analyzed using cumulative incidence competing risk model that controlled for the competing risk of death. Results: Among 42 316 patients with sepsis, 1012 (2.4%) patients developed MI and stroke within 180 days of hospital discharge. The leading 5 predictors for post-sepsis MI and stroke are prior cerebrovascular diseases (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.74-2.32), intra-abdominal infection (HR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.71-2.20), previous MI (HR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.53-2.15), lower respiratory tract infection (HR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.43-1.85), and septic encephalopathy (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.26-2.06). Conclusions: Baseline comorbidities and sources of infection were associated with an increased risk of post-sepsis MI and stroke. The identified risk factors may help physicians select a group of patients with sepsis who may benefit from preventive measures, antiplatelet treatment, and other preventive measures for post-sepsis MI and stroke.


2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. 1183-1189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neika Vendetti ◽  
Theoklis Zaoutis ◽  
Susan E. Coffin ◽  
Julia Shaklee Sammons

OBJECTIVEThe incidence of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) has increased and has been associated with poor outcomes among hospitalized children, including increased risk of death. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for all-cause in-hospital mortality among children with CDI.METHODSA multicenter cohort of children with CDI, aged 1–18 years, was established among children hospitalized at 41 freestanding children’s hospitals between January 1, 2006 and August 31, 2011. Children with CDI were identified using a validated case-finding tool (ICD-9-CM code for CDI plus C. difficile test charge). Only the first CDI-related hospitalization during the study period was used. Risk factors for all-cause in-hospital mortality within 30 days of C. difficile test were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model.RESULTSWe identified 7,318 children with CDI during the study period. The median age of this cohort was 6 years [interquartile range (IQR): 2–13]; the mortality rate was 1.5% (n=109); and the median number of days between C. difficile testing and death was 12 (IQR, 7–20). Independent risk factors for death included older age [adjusted odds ratio (OR, 95% confidence interval), 2.29 (1.40–3.77)], underlying malignancy [3.57 (2.36–5.40)], cardiovascular disease [2.06 (1.28–3.30)], hematologic/immunologic condition [1.89 (1.05–3.39)], gastric acid suppression [2.70 (1.43–5.08)], and presence of >1 severity of illness marker [3.88 (2.44–6.19)].CONCLUSIONPatients with select chronic conditions and more severe disease are at increased risk of death. Identifying risk factors for in-hospital mortality can help detect subpopulations of children that may benefit from targeted CDI prevention and treatment strategies.Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2015;36(10):1183–1189


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karlijn van Halem ◽  
Robin Bruyndonckx ◽  
Jeroen van der Hilst ◽  
Janneke Cox ◽  
Paulien Driesen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Belgium was among the first countries in Europe with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Since the first diagnosis on February 3rd, the epidemic has quickly evolved, with Belgium at the crossroads of Europe, being one of the hardest hit countries. Although risk factors for severe disease in COVID-19 patients have been described in Chinese and United States (US) cohorts, good quality studies reporting on clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcome of European COVID-19 patients are still scarce. Methods This study describes the clinical characteristics, complications and outcomes of 319 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, admitted to a tertiary care center at the start of the pandemic in Belgium, and aims to identify the main risk factors for in-hospital mortality in a European context using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Most patients were male (60%), the median age was 74 (IQR 61–83) and 20% of patients were admitted to the intensive care unit, of whom 63% needed invasive mechanical ventilation. The overall case fatality rate was 25%. The best predictors of in-hospital mortality in multivariate analysis were older age, and renal insufficiency, higher lactate dehydrogenase and thrombocytopenia. Patients admitted early in the epidemic had a higher mortality compared to patients admitted later in the epidemic. In univariate analysis, patients with obesity did have an overall increased risk of death, while overweight on the other hand showed a trend towards lower mortality. Conclusions Most patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first weeks of the epidemic in Belgium were admitted with severe disease and the overall case fatality rate was high. The identified risk factors for mortality are not easily amenable at short term, underscoring the lasting need of effective therapeutic and preventative measures.


Author(s):  
Anis Kausar Ghazali ◽  
Thomas Keegan ◽  
Benjamin M. Taylor

A patient’s survival may depend on several known and unknown factors and it may also vary spatially across a region. Socioeconomic status, accessibility to healthcare and other environmental factors are likely to contribute to survival rates. The aim of the study was to model the spatial variation in survival for colorectal cancer patients in Malaysia, accounting for individual and socioeconomic risk factors. We conducted a retrospective study of 4412 colorectal cancer (ICD-10, C18-C20) patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2013 to model survival in CRC patients. We used the data recorded in the database of the Malaysian National Cancer Patient Registry-Colorectal Cancer (NCPR-CRC). Spatial location was assigned based on the patients’ central district location, which involves 144 administrative districts of Malaysia. We fitted a parametric proportional hazards model in which the spatially correlated frailties were modelled by a log-Gaussian stochastic process to analyse the spatially referenced survival data, which is also known as a spatial survival model. After controlling for individual and area level characteristics, our findings indicate wide spatial variation in colorectal cancer survival across Malaysia. Better healthcare provision and higher socioeconomic index in the districts where patients live decreased the risk of death from colorectal cancer, but these associations were not statistically significant. Reliable measurement of environmental factors is needed to provide good insight into the effects of potential risk factors for the disease. For example, a better metric is needed to measure socioeconomic status and accessibility to healthcare in the country. The findings provide new information that might be of use to the Ministry of Health in identifying populations with an increased risk of poor survival, and for planning and providing cancer control services.


Author(s):  
Christian O’Donnell ◽  
Melanie D. Ashland ◽  
Elena C. Vasti ◽  
Ying Lu ◽  
Andrew Y. Chang ◽  
...  

Background Currently, there is limited research on the prognostic value of NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide) as a biomarker in COVID‐19. We proposed the a priori hypothesis that an elevated NT‐proBNP concentration at admission is associated with increased in‐hospital mortality. Methods and Results In this prospective, observational cohort study of the American Heart Association’s COVID‐19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry, 4675 patients hospitalized with COVID‐19 were divided into normal and elevated NT‐proBNP cohorts by standard age‐adjusted heart failure thresholds, as well as separated by quintiles. Patients with elevated NT‐proBNP (n=1344; 28.7%) were older, with more cardiovascular risk factors, and had a significantly higher rate of in‐hospital mortality (37% versus 16%; P <0.001) and shorter median time to death (7 versus 9 days; P <0.001) than those with normal values. Analysis by quintile of NT‐proBNP revealed a steep graded relationship with mortality (7.1%–40.2%; P <0.001). NT‐proBNP was also associated with major adverse cardiac events, intensive care unit admission, intubation, shock, and cardiac arrest ( P <0.001 for each). In subgroup analyses, NT‐proBNP, but not prior heart failure, was associated with increased risk of in‐hospital mortality. Adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors with presenting vital signs, an elevated NT‐proBNP was associated with 2‐fold higher adjusted odds of death (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.23; 95% CI, 1.80–2.76), and the log‐transformed NT‐proBNP with other biomarkers projected a 21% increased risk of death for each 2‐fold increase (adjusted OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.08–1.34). Conclusions Elevated NT‐proBNP levels on admission for COVID‐19 are associated with an increased risk of in‐hospital mortality and other complications in patients with and without heart failure.


2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 030006052110251
Author(s):  
Minqiang Huang ◽  
Ming Han ◽  
Wei Han ◽  
Lei Kuang

Objective We aimed to compare the efficacy and risks of proton pump inhibitor (PPI) versus histamine-2 receptor blocker (H2B) use for stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) in critically ill patients with sepsis and risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III Clinical Database to identify critically ill adult patients with sepsis who had at least one risk factor for GIB and received either an H2B or PPI for ≥48 hours. Propensity score matching (PSM) was conducted to balance baseline characteristics. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results After 1:1 PSM, 1056 patients were included in the H2B and PPI groups. The PPI group had higher in-hospital mortality (23.8% vs. 17.5%), GIB (8.9% vs. 1.6%), and pneumonia (49.6% vs. 41.6%) rates than the H2B group. After adjusting for risk factors of GIB and pneumonia, PPI use was associated with a 1.28-times increased risk of in-hospital mortality, 5.89-times increased risk of GIB, and 1.32-times increased risk of pneumonia. Conclusions Among critically ill adult patients with sepsis at risk for GIB, SUP with PPIs was associated with higher in-hospital mortality and higher risk of GIB and pneumonia than H2Bs.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 322-322
Author(s):  
B. Samhouri ◽  
R. Vassallo ◽  
S. Achenbach ◽  
V. Kronzer ◽  
J. M. Davis ◽  
...  

Background:Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic inflammatory disease of the joints and other organs, including the lungs.1 Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a lung injury pattern associated with significant symptom burden and poor outcomes in RA.2 Better understanding of its risk factors could help with disease prevention and treatment.Objectives:Using a population-based cohort, we sought to ascertain the incidence and risk factors of RA-associated ILD (RA-ILD) in recent years.Methods:The study included adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota with incident RA between 1999 and 2014 based on the 1987 ACR classification criteria.3 Study subjects were followed until death, migration, or 4/30/2019. ILD was defined by the presence of bilateral interstitial fibrotic changes (excluding biapical scarring) on chest computed tomography (CT). In the absence of chest CT imaging, a physician’s diagnosis of ILD in conjunction with chest X-ray findings suggestive of ILD and a restrictive pattern on pulmonary function testing (defined as a total lung capacity less than the lower limit of normal) was considered diagnostic of ILD. Evaluated risk factors included age, sex, calendar year, smoking status, body mass index (BMI) and presence/absence of rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA). Cumulative incidence of ILD was adjusted for the competing risk of death. Cox models were used to assess the association between potential risk factors and the development of RA-ILD.Results:In Olmsted County, 645 residents were diagnosed with RA between 1999 and 2014. Seventy percent of patients were females, and 30% were males; median age at RA diagnosis was 55.3 [IQR 44.1-66.6] years, and most patients (89%) were white. Fifty-three percent of patients were never-smokers, and 64% had seropositive RA. Forty percent were obese (i.e., BMI ≥30 kg/m2); median BMI was 28.3 [IQR 24.3-33.0] kg/m2.In the cohort, ILD was identified in 73 patients. The ILD diagnosis predated RA diagnosis in 22 patients (3.4%) who were excluded from subsequent analyses. Final analyses included the remaining 623 patients with no ILD preceding, or at the time of RA diagnosis. Over a median follow-up interval of 10.2 [IQR 6.5-14.3] years, 51 patients developed ILD. Cumulative incidence of ILD, adjusted for the competing risk of death, was 4.3% at 5 years; 7.8% at 10 years; 9.4% at 15 years; and 12.3% at 20 years after RA diagnosis (Figure 1).Age, and history of smoking at RA diagnosis correlated with the incidence of ILD; adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.89 per 10-year increase in age (95% confidence interval 1.52-2.34) and 1.94 (95% confidence interval 1.10-3.42), respectively. On the other hand, sex (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.68-2.17), BMI (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.95-1.04), obesity (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.50-1.58), and seropositivity (HR: 1.15; 95% CI: 0.65-2.03) did not demonstrate significant associations with ILD.Conclusion:This study provides a contemporary estimate of the occurrence of ILD in a well-characterized population-based cohort of patients with RA. Our findings of a lack of association between sex, obesity and seropositivity with ILD may indicate a change in established risk factors for ILD and warrant further investigation.References:[1]Shaw M, Collins BF, Ho LA, Raghu G. Rheumatoid arthritis-associated lung disease. Eur Respir Rev. 2015;24(135):1-16. doi:10.1183/09059180.00008014[2]Bongartz T, Nannini C, Medina-Velasquez YF, et al. Incidence and mortality of interstitial lung disease in rheumatoid arthritis - A population-based study. Arthritis Rheum. 2010;62(6):1583-1591. doi:10.1002/art.27405[3]Aletaha D, Neogi T, Silman AJ, et al. 2010 Rheumatoid arthritis classification criteria: An American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism collaborative initiative. Arthritis Rheum. 2010;62(9):2569-2581. doi:10.1002/art.27584Figure 1.Cumulative incidence of ILD in patients diagnosed with RA between 1999 and 2014, adjusted for the competing risk of death. Abbreviations. ILD: interstitial lung disease; RA: rheumatoid arthritis.Disclosure of Interests:Bilal Samhouri: None declared, Robert Vassallo Grant/research support from: Research grants from Pfizer, Sun Pharmaceuticals and Bristol Myers Squibb, Sara Achenbach: None declared, Vanessa Kronzer: None declared, John M Davis III Grant/research support from: Research grant from Pfizer., Elena Myasoedova: None declared, Cynthia S. Crowson: None declared


Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001526
Author(s):  
Elena Tessitore ◽  
David Carballo ◽  
Antoine Poncet ◽  
Nils Perrin ◽  
Cedric Follonier ◽  
...  

ObjectiveHistory of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) may influence the prognosis of patients hospitalised for COVID-19. We investigated whether patients with previous CVD have increased risk of death and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) when hospitalised for COVID-19.MethodsWe included 839 patients with COVID-19 hospitalised at the University Hospitals of Geneva. Demographic characteristics, medical history, laboratory values, ECG at admission and medications at admission were collected based on electronic medical records. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital mortality or MACE.ResultsMedian age was 67 years, 453 (54%) were males and 277 (33%) had history of CVD. In total, 152 (18%) died and 687 (82%) were discharged, including 72 (9%) who survived a MACE. Patients with previous CVD were more at risk of composite outcomes 141/277 (51%) compared with those without CVD 83/562 (15%) (OR=6.0 (95% CI 4.3 to 8.4), p<0.001). Multivariate analyses showed that history of CVD remained an independent risk factor of in-hospital death or MACE (OR=2.4; (95% CI 1.6 to 3.5)), as did age (OR for a 10-year increase=2.2 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.6)), male gender (OR=1.6 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.3)), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR=2.1 (95% CI 1.0 to 4.2)) and lung infiltration associated with COVID-19 at CT scan (OR=1.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.0)). History of CVD (OR=2.9 (95% CI 1.7 to 5)), age (OR=2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 3.2)), male gender (OR=1.6 (95% CI 0.98 to 2.6)) and elevated C reactive protein (CRP) levels on admission (OR for a 10 mg/L increase=1.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.2)) were independent risk factors for mortality.ConclusionHistory of CVD is associated with higher in-hospital mortality and MACE in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Other factors associated with higher in-hospital mortality are older age, male sex and elevated CRP on admission.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (S3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Bauserman ◽  
Vanessa R. Thorsten ◽  
Tracy L. Nolen ◽  
Jackie Patterson ◽  
Adrien Lokangaka ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Maternal mortality is a public health problem that disproportionately affects low and lower-middle income countries (LMICs). Appropriate data sources are lacking to effectively track maternal mortality and monitor changes in this health indicator over time. Methods We analyzed data from women enrolled in the NICHD Global Network for Women’s and Children’s Health Research Maternal Newborn Health Registry (MNHR) from 2010 through 2018. Women delivering within research sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala, India (Nagpur and Belagavi), Kenya, Pakistan, and Zambia are included. We evaluated maternal and delivery characteristics using log-binomial models and multivariable models to obtain relative risk estimates for mortality. We used running averages to track maternal mortality ratio (MMR, maternal deaths per 100,000 live births) over time. Results We evaluated 571,321 pregnancies and 842 maternal deaths. We observed an MMR of 157 / 100,000 live births (95% CI 147, 167) across all sites, with a range of MMRs from 97 (76, 118) in the Guatemala site to 327 (293, 361) in the Pakistan site. When adjusted for maternal risk factors, risks of maternal mortality were higher with maternal age > 35 (RR 1.43 (1.06, 1.92)), no maternal education (RR 3.40 (2.08, 5.55)), lower education (RR 2.46 (1.54, 3.94)), nulliparity (RR 1.24 (1.01, 1.52)) and parity > 2 (RR 1.48 (1.15, 1.89)). Increased risk of maternal mortality was also associated with occurrence of obstructed labor (RR 1.58 (1.14, 2.19)), severe antepartum hemorrhage (RR 2.59 (1.83, 3.66)) and hypertensive disorders (RR 6.87 (5.05, 9.34)). Before and after adjusting for other characteristics, physician attendance at delivery, delivery in hospital and Caesarean delivery were associated with increased risk. We observed variable changes over time in the MMR within sites. Conclusions The MNHR is a useful tool for tracking MMRs in these LMICs. We identified maternal and delivery characteristics associated with increased risk of death, some might be confounded by indication. Despite declines in MMR in some sites, all sites had an MMR higher than the Sustainable Development Goals target of below 70 per 100,000 live births by 2030. Trial registration The MNHR is registered at NCT01073475.


Author(s):  
Jonathan P Huggins ◽  
Samuel Hohmann ◽  
Michael Z David

Abstract Background Candida endocarditis is a rare, sometimes fatal complication of candidemia. Past investigations of this condition are limited by small sample sizes. We used the Vizient clinical database to report on characteristics of patients with Candida endocarditis and to examine risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Methods This was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of 703 inpatients admitted to 179 United States hospitals between October 2015 and April 2019. We reviewed demographic, diagnostic, medication administration, and procedural data from each patient’s initial encounter. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. Results Of 703 patients, 114 (16.2%) died during the index encounter. One hundred and fifty-eight (22.5%) underwent an intervention on a cardiac valve. On multivariate analysis, acute and subacute liver failure was the strongest predictor of death (OR 9.2, 95% CI 4.8 –17.7). Female sex (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2 – 3.0), transfer from an outside medical facility (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 – 2.8), aortic valve pathology (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5 – 4.9), hemodialysis (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 – 4.0), cerebrovascular disease (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2 – 3.8), neutropenia (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3 – 4.8), and alcohol abuse (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.3 – 6.7) were also associated with death on adjusted analysis, whereas opiate abuse was associated with a lower odds of death (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2 – 0.9). Conclusions We found that the inpatient mortality rate was 16.2% among patients with Candida endocarditis. Acute and subacute liver failure was associated with a high risk of death while opiate abuse was associated with a lower risk of death.


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