scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 infection: Initial viral load (iVL) predicts severity of illness/outcome, and declining trend of iVL in hospitalized patients corresponds with slowing of the pandemic

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0255981
Author(s):  
Said El Zein ◽  
Omar Chehab ◽  
Amjad Kanj ◽  
Sandy Akrawe ◽  
Samer Alkassis ◽  
...  

Background Hospitalization of patients infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have remained considerable worldwide. Patients often develop severe complications and have high mortality rates. The cycle threshold (Ct) value derived from nasopharyngeal swab samples using real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) may be a useful prognostic marker in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, however, its role in predicting the course of the pandemic has not been evaluated thus far. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study which included all patients who had a nasopharyngeal sample positive for SARS-CoV-2 between April 4 –June 5, 2020. The Ct value was used to estimate the number of viral particles in a patient sample. The trend in initial viral load on admission on a population level was evaluated. Moreover, patient characteristics and outcomes stratified by viral load categories were compared and initial viral load was assessed as an independent predictor of intubation and in-hospital mortality. Results A total of 461 hospitalized patients met the inclusion criteria. This study consisted predominantly of acutely infected patients with a median of 4 days since symptom onset to PCR. As the severity of the pandemic eased, there was an increase in the percentage of samples in the low initial viral load category, coinciding with a decrease in deaths. Compared to an initial low viral load, a high initial viral load was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 5.5, CI 3.1–9.7, p < 0.001) and intubation (OR 1.82 CI 1.07–3.11, p = 0.03), while an initial intermediate viral load was associated with increased risk of inpatient mortality (OR 1.9, CI 1.14–3.21, p = 0.015) but not with increased risk for intubation. Conclusion The Ct value obtained from nasopharyngeal samples of hospitalized patients on admission may serve as a prognostic marker at an individual level and may help predict the course of the pandemic when evaluated at a population level.

Author(s):  
Reed Magleby ◽  
Lars F Westblade ◽  
Alex Trzebucki ◽  
Matthew S Simon ◽  
Mangala Rajan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) frequently require mechanical ventilation and have high mortality rates. However, the impact of viral burden on these outcomes is unknown. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from 30 March 2020 to 30 April 2020 at 2 hospitals in New York City. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load was assessed using cycle threshold (Ct) values from a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay applied to nasopharyngeal swab samples. We compared characteristics and outcomes of patients with high, medium, and low admission viral loads and assessed whether viral load was independently associated with intubation and in-hospital mortality. Results We evaluated 678 patients with COVID-19. Higher viral load was associated with increased age, comorbidities, smoking status, and recent chemotherapy. In-hospital mortality was 35.0% (Ct &lt;25; n = 220), 17.6% (Ct 25–30; n = 216), and 6.2% (Ct &gt;30; n = 242) with high, medium, and low viral loads, respectively (P &lt; .001). The risk of intubation was also higher in patients with a high viral load (29.1%) compared with those with a medium (20.8%) or low viral load (14.9%; P &lt; .001). High viral load was independently associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 6.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.92–12.52) and intubation (aOR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.68–4.44). Conclusions Admission SARS-CoV-2 viral load among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 independently correlates with the risk of intubation and in-hospital mortality. Providing this information to clinicians could potentially be used to guide patient care.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 2601-2601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Culakova ◽  
Marek S. Poniewierski ◽  
Jeffrey Crawford ◽  
David C. Dale ◽  
Gary H. Lyman

Background: Hematologic toxicities are common side effects of cancer chemotherapy. Despite advances in supportive care, febrile neutropenia (FN) continues to represent a serious adverse event often requiring hospitalization and is associated with an increased risk of mortality. The purpose of this analysis was to investigate the impact of comorbidities and infectious complications on in-patient length of stay (LOS) and mortality in hospitalized patients with cancer and neutropenia over the past decade. Methods: Hospitalization data from the University Health Consortium database inclusive of the years 2004-2012 from 239 US medical centers were analyzed. Cancer type, presence of neutropenia, comorbidities, and infection type were based on ICD-9-CM codes recorded during hospitalization. This analysis includes adult patients with malignant disease and neutropenia. Patients undergoing bone marrow or stem cell transplantation were excluded. For patients with multiple hospitalizations, the first admission during the time period studied was utilized. Primary study outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS≥10 days) and in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to study the impact of major comorbidities on the primary outcomes. Major comorbidities under consideration included heart, liver, lung, renal, cerebrovascular, peripheral-vascular disease, diabetes and venous thromboembolism. Results: Among 135,309 patients with cancer hospitalized with neutropenic events, one-third were age 65 years or older and 51% were male. Approximately one-quarter (24.5%) of patients experienced more than one admission with FN. The mean (median) length of stay increased progressively from 11.1 (6) days in 2004 to 12.8 (7) days in 2012. Patients with leukemia, lymphoma and central nervous system (CNS) malignancies experienced the longest mean LOS (21.4, 10.5, 10.2 days, respectively). Overall, 50,846 (37.6%) had a LOS≥10 days and 10,261 (7.6%) patients died during the hospitalization with no difference seen over the time period of observation. (P=.30). Greater rates of mortality were observed in patients with lung (11.2%) or CNS (9.3%) malignancies, and leukemia (9.3%). Infectious complications were documented in 59.5% of patients and their presence was associated with greater LOS≥10 days (48.2% vs. 22.0%) and higher mortality (11.2% vs. 2.3%). Greater LOS≥10 days (51.6% vs. 37.1%) and increased mortality (9.8% vs. 7.5%) were also observed among obese patients with cancer. Likewise, patients with multiple comorbid conditions had more prolonged hospitalizations and a greater risk of in-hospital mortality. (Table) Abstract 2601. Table Solid tumors Lymphoma LeukemiaNo. of comorbiditiesNo. of patients% died% with LOS≥10 daysNo. of patients% died% with LOS≥10 daysNo. of patients% died% with LOS≥10 days017,8580.911.28,1890.617.010,3950.853.5118,1723.417.97,7512.626.611,3803.463.2214,2508.927.25,3868.141.08,6039.769.937,49918.038.42,86118.455.25,04022.877.742,70525.151.41,06033.670.52,00438.183.1≥ 560235.262.327839.980.657749.087.0All patients*61,0867.022.625,5256.632.237,9999.265.4 LOS – length of stay; * 10,699 patients with other type or multiple tumors not included in the table The trend toward longer LOS and greater mortality with increased number of comorbidities persisted in multivariate analyses after adjusting for cancer type, age, gender, ethnicity and type of infection (odds ratio (OR) per +1 comorbidity increase: [mortality: OR =1.89; 95% CI: 1.85-1.92; P<.0001], [LOS: OR=1.56; 95% CI: 1.54-1.58; P<.0001]). Conclusions: Major medical comorbidities are common among hospitalized patients with cancer and neutropenia. Importantly, such comorbidities are associated with prolonged hospitalization and increased risk of in-hospital mortality with significantly worse outcomes in patients with lymphoma or leukemia. Greater awareness of risk factors associated with poor prognosis in cancer patients hospitalized with neutropenic complications as well as validated risk tools to better identify low risk as well high risk patients may guide more personalized cancer care, potentially improving clinical outcomes and lowering the cost of care. Disclosures Crawford: Amgen: Consultancy. Dale:Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Lyman:Amgen: Research Funding.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Souverein ◽  
Karlijn van Stralen ◽  
Steven van Lelyveld ◽  
Claudia van Gemeren ◽  
Milly Haverkort ◽  
...  

Background: We aimed to assess the association between initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the subsequent hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admission and overall survival. Methods: All persons with a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR result from a combined nasopharyngeal (NP) and oropharyngeal (OP) swab (first samples from unique persons only) that was collected between March 17, 2020, and March 31, 2021, in Public Health testing facilities in the region Kennemerland, province of North Holland, the Netherlands were included. Data on hospital (and ICU) admission were collected from the two large teaching hospitals in the region Kennemerland. Results: In total, 20,207 SARS-CoV-2 positive persons were included in this study, of whom 310 (1.5%) were hospitalized in a regional hospital within 30 days of their positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test. When persons were categorized in three SARS-CoV-2 viral load groups, the high viral load group (Cp < 25) was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization as compared to the low viral load group (Cp > 30) (ORadjusted [95%CI]: 1.57 [1.11-2.26], p-value=0.012), adjusted for age and sex. The same association was seen for ICU admission (ORadjusted [95%CI]: 7.06 [2.15-43.57], p-value=0.007). For a subset of 243 of the 310 hospitalized patients, the association of initial SARS-CoV-2 Cp-value with in-hospital mortality was analyzed. The initial SARS-CoV-2 Cp-value of the 17 patients who deceased in the hospital was significantly lower (indicating a higher viral load) compared to the 226 survivors: median Cp-value [IQR]: 22.7 [3.4] vs. 25.0 [5.2], OR[95%CI]: 0.81 [0.68-0.94], p-value = 0.010. Conclusions: Our data show that higher initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with an increased risk of hospital admission, ICU admission, and in-hospital mortality. We believe that our findings emphasize the added value of reporting SARS-CoV-2 viral load based on Cp-values to identify persons who are at the highest risk of adverse outcomes such as hospital or ICU admission and who therefore may benefit from more intensive monitoring.


2020 ◽  
Vol 105 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahim Ebrahimi ◽  
Alexander Kutz ◽  
Ulrich Wagner ◽  
Ben Illigens ◽  
Timo Siepmann ◽  
...  

Abstract Context Patients with hypopituitarism face excess mortality in the long-term outpatient setting. However, associations of pituitary dysfunction with outcomes in acutely hospitalized patients are lacking. Objective The objective of this work is to assess clinical outcomes of hospitalized patients with hypopituitarism with or without diabetes insipidus (DI). Design, Setting, and Patients In this population-based, matched-cohort study from 2012 to 2017, hospitalized adult patients with a history of hypopituitarism were 1:1 propensity score–matched with a general medical inpatient cohort. Main Outcome Measures The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included all-cause readmission rates within 30 days and 1 year, intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates, and length of hospital stay. Results After matching, 6764 cases were included in the study. In total, 3382 patients had hypopituitarism and of those 807 (24%) suffered from DI. All-cause in-hospital mortality occurred in 198 (5.9%) of patients with hypopituitarism and in 164 (4.9%) of matched controls (odds ratio [OR] 1.32, [95% CI, 1.06-1.65], P = .013). Increased mortality was primarily observed in patients with DI (OR 3.69 [95% CI, 2.44-5.58], P &lt; .001). Patients with hypopituitarism had higher ICU admissions (OR 1.50 [95% CI, 1.30-1.74], P &lt; .001), and faced a 2.4-day prolonged length of hospitalization (95% CI, 1.94–2.95, P &lt; .001) compared to matched controls. Risk of 30-day (OR 1.31 [95% CI, 1.13-1.51], P &lt; .001) and 1-year readmission (OR 1.29 [95% CI, 1.17-1.42], P &lt; .001) was higher among patients with hypopituitarism as compared with medical controls. Conclusions Patients with hypopituitarism are highly vulnerable once hospitalized for acute medical conditions with increased risk of mortality and adverse clinical outcomes. This was most pronounced among those with DI.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hosein Taziki Balajelini ◽  
Abdolhalim Rajabi ◽  
Masoud Mohammadi ◽  
Alijan Tabarraei ◽  
Seyed Mohammad Hadi Razavi Nikoo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Covid-19 has different clinical symptoms and severity. Predicting its progress and results is clinically important. Hence, in this study, we investigated the relationship between virus load and the outcomes in Golestan Province. Methodology: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 diagnosed with RT-PCR testing from May 2020 to December 2020. According to the severity of the disease, the study groups were divided into three groups: outpatient, inpatient, and inpatient with death. SARS-CoV-2 viral load was assessed using cycle threshold (Ct) values from a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay applied to nasopharyngeal swab samples. Demographic properties, Clinical characteristics, and CT values of the studied patients were compared. Data were analyzed using STATA Version 16.0 software.Results: Of 1318 included subjects, 599 were outpatient, and 719 were hospitalized. Of the hospitalized patients, 487 were recovered and 232 died. The mean age (year) of patients was 48.81±18.40 and 51.9% were female. There were significant differences between the age and the severity of the disease, the mean age of patients who died was higher than other patients (p<0.001). The mean CT value of all patients was 26.80±4.43, which was higher in outpatients than inpatients' cases (p <0.001). We did not find any significant differences for the Ct values between recovered and dead cases (p=0.66). CT value levels were not significantly different between age and sex groups. Conclusions: According to the results of the study, CT value can be used only as a factor to determine the severity of the disease at the time of admission, but the load of the virus is not a factor to predict the outcome.


Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 3596-3596
Author(s):  
Kahee A Mohammed ◽  
Kristen M Sanfilippo

Abstract Background: The burden of multiple myeloma has increased in last 30 years, both in US and globally. Patients with multiple myeloma are at increased risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE) resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to (1) determine patient and hospital characteristics associated with VTE, (2) assess the impact of VTE on in-hospital mortality and prolonged hospitalization, and (3) examine trends in the rates of VTE and VTE-associated in-hospital mortality and prolonged hospitalization in patients with multiple myeloma. Methods: A retrospective analysis of Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 2008 - 2014, was conducted. International Classification of Diseases-9-Clinical Modification codes were used to identify hospitalized patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with multiple myeloma. Trends in the prevalence of VTE and VTE-associated in-hospital mortality and prolonged hospitalization rates were assessed using the Cochrane-Armitage test. Weighted, multilevel hierarchical logistic regression using generalized linear mixed models with generalized estimated equations were used to examine the association between patient and hospital characteristics and study outcomes Results: Among 136,652 hospitalized patients with multiple myeloma, 4.2% were diagnosed with VTE. Although statistically insignificant, a slight increase in VTE rates were observed from 2008 to 2014 (3.9% to 4.4%) (p 0.18). In adjusted multilevel hierarchical regression, we found higher odds of VTE in male gender (odds ratio [OR] = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.02 - 1.14), Black race (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.03 - 1.19), those who had a major surgery (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.62 - 1.85), and higher Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR = 3.73, 95% CI = 2.66 - 5.23). Hospital level correlates of VTE included: admission to teaching vs. non-teaching (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01 - 1.13), and admission to medium vs. small sized hospitals (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.01 - 1.23), while lower odds of VTE were noted among patients admitted to hospitals located in Northeast (OR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.84 - 0.98) vs. South. Patients diagnosed with vs. without VTE had higher odds of in-hospital mortality (OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.22 - 1.51) and prolonged hospital stay (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.55 - 1.75). A statistically significant trend for decreasing VTE associated mortality (10.0% to 5.3%) (p <.001) and prolonged hospitalization (32.1% to 28.2%) (p <.001) rates were observed across study years. Conclusions: During the study period, there has been an increase in rate of VTE among patients with multiple myeloma. Patients with multiple myeloma and VTE had a high risk of in-hospital mortality compared to those without VTE; however, rates of VTE-associated in-hospital mortality and prolongation of hospitalization have decreased over time. Hospital level characteristics were significantly associated with VTE. These findings might reflect changing detection guidelines and better management of VTE in cancer patients. Lastly, patient level characteristics independently predict the occurrence of VTE. Given the higher in-hospital mortality associated with patients with VTE and multiple myeloma, there is a need for prospective studies to identify effective strategies to prevent VTE in this patient population and improve outcomes. Disclosures Sanfilippo: Bristol-Myers Squibb: Speakers Bureau.


Author(s):  
Leonidas Palaiodimos ◽  
Natalia Chamorro-Pareja ◽  
Dimitrios Karamanis ◽  
Weijia Li ◽  
Phaedon D. Zavras ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundInfectious diseases are more frequent and can be associated with worse outcomes in patients with diabetes. Our aim was to systematically review and synthesize with a meta-analysis the available observational studies reporting the effect of diabetes in mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19.MethodsMedline, Embase, Google Scholar, and medRxiv databases were reviewed. A random-effect model meta-analysis was used and I-square was utilized to assess the heterogeneity. In-hospital mortality was defined as the endpoint. Sensitivity, subgroup, and meta-regression analyses were performed.Results18,506 patients were included in this meta-analysis (3,713 diabetics and 14,793 non-diabetics). Patients with diabetes were associated with a higher risk of death compared to patients without diabetes (OR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96; I2 77.4%). The heterogeneity was high. A study level meta-regression analysis was performed for all the important covariates and no significant interactions were found between the covariates and the outcome of mortality.ConclusionThis meta-analysis shows that that the likelihood of death is 65% higher in diabetic hospitalized patients with COVID-19 compared to non-diabetics. Further studies are needed to assess whether this association is independent or not, as well as to investigate to role of glucose control prior or during the disease.


Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Severine Matthijs ◽  
Nick De Regge

The ecological and economic importance of bees for pollination and biodiversity is well established. The health of bees is, however, threatened by a multitude of factors, including viruses. In this study, we screened 557 colonies from 155 beekeepers distributed all over Belgium to monitor the prevalence and distribution of seven widespread viruses in Belgian honey bees (Apis mellifera). Several of these viruses have been linked with an increased risk for colony loss. Although these viruses can severely impact honey bees and can even cause the death of larvae or adults, colonies with a low viral load usually appear asymptomatic (covert infection). The presence of viruses was determined by real-time RT-PCR. The three most prevalent viruses in Belgian honey bees are Deformed wing virus B (DWV-B or VDV-1), Black queen cell virus (BQCV), and Sacbrood virus (SBV). These viruses were found in more than 90% of the honey bee colonies, but often with a high Ct value, which indicates that they are present at low viral loads (less than 3 log10 genome copies per bee). In certain colonies, however, DWV-B, BQCV, or SBV was detected with a low Ct value, representing a high viral load (in some cases, more than 7 log10 genome copies per bee) and with an increased likelihood of development of clinical symptoms. Deformed wing virus A (DWV-A), Acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV), and Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV) were found in less than 40% of the colonies. Kashmir bee virus (KBV) was not found in any of the analyzed Belgian honey bees. Most of the honey bee colonies are infected with multiple viruses, albeit with low virus loads. The impact of viruses can however become critical in the presence of other detrimental factors such as parasites (Nosema sp., Varroa sp.) and pesticides.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maha Al-Mozaini ◽  
Abu Shadat M. Noman ◽  
Jawaher Alotaibi ◽  
Mohammed Rezaul Karim ◽  
A. S. M. Zahed ◽  
...  

The correlation between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load and risk of disease severity in cancer patients is poorly understood. Given the fact that cancer patients are at increased risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), analysis of viral load and disease outcome in COVID-19-infected cancer patients is needed. Here, we measured the SARS-CoV-2 viral load using qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values collected from 120 noncancer and 64 cancer patients’ nasopharyngeal swab samples who are admitted to hospitals. Our results showed that the in-hospital mortality for high viral load cancer patients was 41.38%, 23.81% for medium viral load and 14.29% for low viral load patients (p &lt; −0.01). On the other hand, the mortality rate for noncancer patients was lower: 22.22% among patients with high viral load, 5.13% among patients with medium viral load, and 1.85% among patients with low viral load (p &lt; 0.05). In addition, patients with lung and hematologic cancer showed higher possibilities of severe events in proportion to high viral load. Higher attributable mortality and severity were directly proportional to high viral load particularly in patients who are receiving anticancer treatment. Importantly, we found that the incubation period and serial interval time is shorter in cancer patients compared with noncancer cases. Our report suggests that high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads may play a significant role in the overall mortality and severity of COVID-19-positive cancer patients, and this warrants further study to explore the disease pathogenesis and their use as prognostic tools.


2021 ◽  
pp. S253-S258
Author(s):  
R NOVYSEDLAK ◽  
J VACHTENHEIM ◽  
I STRIZ ◽  
O VIKLICKY ◽  
R LISCHKE ◽  
...  

In the era of COVID-19 pandemic, organ transplantation programs were facing serious challenges. The lung transplantation donor pool was extremely limited and SARS-CoV-2 viral load assessment has become a crucial part of selecting an optimal organ donor. Since COVID-19 is a respiratory disease, the viral load is thought to be more important in lung transplantations as compared to other solid organ transplantations. We present two challenging cases of potential lung donors with a questionable COVID-19 status. Based on these cases, we suggest that the cycle threshold (Ct) value should always be requested from the laboratory and the decision whether to proceed with transplantation should be made upon complex evaluation of diverse criteria, including the nasopharyngeal swab and bronchoalveolar lavage PCR results, the Ct value, imaging findings and the medical history. However, as the presence of viral RNA does not ensure infectivity, it is still to be clarified which Ct values are associated with the viral viability. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgA antibodies may support the diagnosis and moreover, novel methods, such as quantifying SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen in serum may provide important answers in organ transplantations and donor selections.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document