Predicting increases in COVID-19 incidence to identify locations for targeted testing in West Virginia: A machine learning enhanced approach

During the COVID-19 pandemic, West Virginia developed an aggressive SARS-CoV-2 testing strategy which included utilizing pop-up mobile testing in locations anticipated to have near-term increases in SARS-CoV-2 infections. This study describes and compares two methods for predicting near-term SARS-CoV-2 incidence in West Virginia counties. The first method, Rt Only, is solely based on producing forecasts for each county using the daily instantaneous reproductive numbers, Rt. The second method, ML+Rt, is a machine learning approach that uses a Long Short-Term Memory network to predict the near-term number of cases for each county using epidemiological statistics such as Rt, county population information, and time series trends including information on major holidays, as well as leveraging statewide COVID-19 trends across counties and county population size. Both approaches used daily county-level SARS-CoV-2 incidence data provided by the West Virginia Department Health and Human Resources beginning April 2020. The methods are compared on the accuracy of near-term SARS-CoV-2 increases predictions by county over 17 weeks from January 1, 2021- April 30, 2021. Both methods performed well (correlation between forecasted number of cases and the actual number of cases week over week is 0.872 for the ML+Rt method and 0.867 for the Rt Only method) but differ in performance at various time points. Over the 17-week assessment period, the ML+Rt method outperforms the Rt Only method in identifying larger spikes. Results show that both methods perform adequately in both rural and non-rural predictions. Finally, a detailed discussion on practical issues regarding implementing forecasting models for public health action based on Rt is provided, and the potential for further development of machine learning methods that are enhanced by Rt.

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Predicting increases in COVID-19 incidence to identify locations for targeted testing in West Virginia: A machine learning enhanced approach

10.1101/2021.10.06.21264569 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Bradley S Price ◽

Maryam Khodaverdi ◽

Adam Halasz ◽

Brian Hendricks ◽

Wesley Kimble ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

West Virginia ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Public Health Action ◽

Incidence Data ◽

County Population ◽

Targeted Testing ◽

Near Term ◽

Well Correlation ◽

Virginia Department

During the COVID-19 pandemic, West Virginia developed an aggressive SARS-CoV-2 testing strategy which included utilizing pop-up mobile testing in locations anticipated to have near-term increases in SARS-CXoV-2 infections. In this study, we describe and compare two methods for predicting near-term SARS-CoV-2 incidence in West Virginia counties. The first method, Rt Only, is solely based on producing forecasts for each county using the daily instantaneous reproductive numbers, Rt. The second method, ML+ Rt, is a machine learning approach that uses a Long Short-Term Memory network to predict the near-term number of cases for each county using epidemiological statistics such as Rt , county population information, and time series trends including information on major holidays, as well as leveraging statewide COVID-19 trends across counties and county population size. Both approaches used daily county-level SARS-CoV-2 incidence data provided by the West Virginia Department Health and Human Resources beginning April 2020. The methods are compared on the accuracy of near-term SARS-CoV-2 increases predictions by county over 17 weeks from January 1, 2021- April 30, 2021. Both methods performed well (correlation between forecasted number of cases and the actual number of cases week over week is 0.872 for the ML+Rt method and 0.867 for the Rt Only method) but differ in performance at various time points. Over the 17-week assessment period, the ML+Rt method outperforms the Rt Only method in identifying larger spikes. We also find that both methods perform adequately in both rural and non-rural predictions. Finally, we provide a detailed discussion on practical issues regarding implementing forecasting models for public health action based on Rt, and the potential for further development of machine learning methods that are enhanced by Rt.

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Using Machine Learning Algorithms on Prediction of Stock Price

Journal of Modeling and Optimization ◽

10.32732/jmo.2020.12.2.84 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 84-99

Author(s):

Li-Pang Chen

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Stock Price ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Machine Learning Techniques ◽

Support Vector ◽

Short Term ◽

Learning Techniques ◽

Historical Database ◽

Long Short Term Memory

In this paper, we investigate analysis and prediction of the time-dependent data. We focus our attention on four different stocks are selected from Yahoo Finance historical database. To build up models and predict the future stock price, we consider three different machine learning techniques including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). By treating close price, open price, daily low, daily high, adjusted close price, and volume of trades as predictors in machine learning methods, it can be shown that the prediction accuracy is improved.

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Machine Learning Approach for Confirmation of COVID-19 Cases: Positive, Negative, Death and Release (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.19526 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Samir Bandyopadhyay Sr ◽

SHAWNI DUTTA ◽

SHAWNI DUTTA

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Health Workers ◽

Original Data ◽

High Rate ◽

Learning Approach ◽

Good Decision ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Machine Learning Approach ◽

Death Cases

BACKGROUND In recent days, Covid-19 coronavirus has been an immense impact on social, economic fields in the world. The objective of this study determines if it is feasible to use machine learning method to evaluate how much prediction results are close to original data related to Confirmed-Negative-Released-Death cases of Covid-19. For this purpose, a verification method is proposed in this paper that uses the concept of Deep-learning Neural Network. In this framework, Long short-term memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) are also assimilated finally for training the dataset and the prediction results are tally with the results predicted by clinical doctors. The prediction results are validated against the original data based on some predefined metric. The experimental results showcase that the proposed approach is useful in generating suitable results based on the critical disease outbreak. It also helps doctors to recheck further verification of virus by the proposed method. The outbreak of Coronavirus has the nature of exponential growth and so it is difficult to control with limited clinical persons for handling a huge number of patients with in a reasonable time. So it is necessary to build an automated model, based on machine learning approach, for corrective measure after the decision of clinical doctors. It could be a promising supplementary confirmation method for frontline clinical doctors. The proposed method has a high prediction rate and works fast for probable accurate identification of the disease. The performance analysis shows that a high rate of accuracy is obtained by the proposed method. OBJECTIVE Validation of COVID-19 disease METHODS Machine Learning RESULTS 90% CONCLUSIONS The combined LSTM-GRU based RNN model provides a comparatively better results in terms of prediction of confirmed, released, negative, death cases on the data. This paper presented a novel method that could recheck occurred cases of COVID-19 automatically. The data driven RNN based model is capable of providing automated tool for confirming, estimating the current position of this pandemic, assessing the severity, and assisting government and health workers to act for good decision making policy. It could be a promising supplementary rechecking method for frontline clinical doctors. It is now essential for improving the accuracy of detection process. CLINICALTRIAL 2020-04-03 3:22:36 PM

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Derivation of Respiratory Metrics in Health and Asthma; Machine Learning Methodology (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.25178 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Joseph Prinable ◽

Peter Jones ◽

David Boland ◽

Alistair McEwan ◽

Cindy Thamrin

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Reference Signal ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Training Dataset ◽

Local Health ◽

Strongly Correlated ◽

Human Research Ethics ◽

Expiration Time ◽

Wide Variability

BACKGROUND The ability to continuously monitor breathing metrics may have indications for general health as well as respiratory conditions such as asthma. However, few studies have focused on breathing due to a lack of available wearable technologies. OBJECTIVE Examine the performance of two machine learning algorithms in extracting breathing metrics from a finger-based pulse oximeter, which is amenable to long-term monitoring. METHODS Pulse oximetry data was collected from 11 healthy and 11 asthma subjects who breathed at a range of controlled respiratory rates. UNET and Long Short-Term memory (LSTM) algorithms were applied to the data, and results compared against breathing metrics derived from respiratory inductance plethysmography measured simultaneously as a reference. RESULTS The UNET vs LSTM model provided breathing metrics which were strongly correlated with those from the reference signal (all p<0.001, except for inspiratory:expiratory ratio). The following relative mean bias(95% confidence interval) were observed: inspiration time 1.89(-52.95, 56.74)% vs 1.30(-52.15, 54.74)%, expiration time -3.70(-55.21, 47.80)% vs -4.97(-56.84, 46.89)%, inspiratory:expiratory ratio -4.65(-87.18, 77.88)% vs -5.30(-87.07, 76.47)%, inter-breath intervals -2.39(-32.76, 27.97)% vs -3.16(-33.69, 27.36)%, and respiratory rate 2.99(-27.04 to 33.02)% vs 3.69(-27.17 to 34.56)%. CONCLUSIONS Both machine learning models show strongly correlation and good comparability with reference, with low bias though wide variability for deriving breathing metrics in asthma and health cohorts. Future efforts should focus on improvement of performance of these models, e.g. by increasing the size of the training dataset at the lower breathing rates. CLINICALTRIAL Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee (#LNR\16\HAWKE99 ethics approval).

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Predicting Future Occurrence of Acute Hypotensive Episodes Using Noninvasive and Invasive Features

Military Medicine ◽

10.1093/milmed/usaa418 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 186 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 445-451

Author(s):

Yifei Sun ◽

Navid Rashedi ◽

Vikrant Vaze ◽

Parikshit Shah ◽

Ryan Halter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Support Vector Machine ◽

Real World ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Model Performance ◽

Learning Technologies ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Support Vector ◽

K Nearest Neighbor ◽

Continuous Map

ABSTRACT Introduction Early prediction of the acute hypotensive episode (AHE) in critically ill patients has the potential to improve outcomes. In this study, we apply different machine learning algorithms to the MIMIC III Physionet dataset, containing more than 60,000 real-world intensive care unit records, to test commonly used machine learning technologies and compare their performances. Materials and Methods Five classification methods including K-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, and a deep learning method called long short-term memory are applied to predict an AHE 30 minutes in advance. An analysis comparing model performance when including versus excluding invasive features was conducted. To further study the pattern of the underlying mean arterial pressure (MAP), we apply a regression method to predict the continuous MAP values using linear regression over the next 60 minutes. Results Support vector machine yields the best performance in terms of recall (84%). Including the invasive features in the classification improves the performance significantly with both recall and precision increasing by more than 20 percentage points. We were able to predict the MAP with a root mean square error (a frequently used measure of the differences between the predicted values and the observed values) of 10 mmHg 60 minutes in the future. After converting continuous MAP predictions into AHE binary predictions, we achieve a 91% recall and 68% precision. In addition to predicting AHE, the MAP predictions provide clinically useful information regarding the timing and severity of the AHE occurrence. Conclusion We were able to predict AHE with precision and recall above 80% 30 minutes in advance with the large real-world dataset. The prediction of regression model can provide a more fine-grained, interpretable signal to practitioners. Model performance is improved by the inclusion of invasive features in predicting AHE, when compared to predicting the AHE based on only the available, restricted set of noninvasive technologies. This demonstrates the importance of exploring more noninvasive technologies for AHE prediction.

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Global soil moisture data derived through machine learning trained with in-situ measurements

Scientific Data ◽

10.1038/s41597-021-00964-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sungmin O. ◽

Rene Orth

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Large Scale ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Soil Moisture Data ◽

Wide Range ◽

Global Soil

AbstractWhile soil moisture information is essential for a wide range of hydrologic and climate applications, spatially-continuous soil moisture data is only available from satellite observations or model simulations. Here we present a global, long-term dataset of soil moisture derived through machine learning trained with in-situ measurements, SoMo.ml. We train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to extrapolate daily soil moisture dynamics in space and in time, based on in-situ data collected from more than 1,000 stations across the globe. SoMo.ml provides multi-layer soil moisture data (0–10 cm, 10–30 cm, and 30–50 cm) at 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolution over the period 2000–2019. The performance of the resulting dataset is evaluated through cross validation and inter-comparison with existing soil moisture datasets. SoMo.ml performs especially well in terms of temporal dynamics, making it particularly useful for applications requiring time-varying soil moisture, such as anomaly detection and memory analyses. SoMo.ml complements the existing suite of modelled and satellite-based datasets given its distinct derivation, to support large-scale hydrological, meteorological, and ecological analyses.

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Learning chemistry: exploring the suitability of machine learning for the task of structure-based chemical ontology classification

Journal of Cheminformatics ◽

10.1186/s13321-021-00500-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Janna Hastings ◽

Martin Glauer ◽

Adel Memariani ◽

Fabian Neuhaus ◽

Till Mossakowski

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Logistic Regression ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Chemical Space ◽

Chemical Data ◽

Learning Approaches ◽

Class Prediction ◽

Chemical Structures ◽

Chemical Ontology ◽

Chemical Ontologies

AbstractChemical data is increasingly openly available in databases such as PubChem, which contains approximately 110 million compound entries as of February 2021. With the availability of data at such scale, the burden has shifted to organisation, analysis and interpretation. Chemical ontologies provide structured classifications of chemical entities that can be used for navigation and filtering of the large chemical space. ChEBI is a prominent example of a chemical ontology, widely used in life science contexts. However, ChEBI is manually maintained and as such cannot easily scale to the full scope of public chemical data. There is a need for tools that are able to automatically classify chemical data into chemical ontologies, which can be framed as a hierarchical multi-class classification problem. In this paper we evaluate machine learning approaches for this task, comparing different learning frameworks including logistic regression, decision trees and long short-term memory artificial neural networks, and different encoding approaches for the chemical structures, including cheminformatics fingerprints and character-based encoding from chemical line notation representations. We find that classical learning approaches such as logistic regression perform well with sets of relatively specific, disjoint chemical classes, while the neural network is able to handle larger sets of overlapping classes but needs more examples per class to learn from, and is not able to make a class prediction for every molecule. Future work will explore hybrid and ensemble approaches, as well as alternative network architectures including neuro-symbolic approaches.

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Financial Context News Sentiment Analysis for the Lithuanian Language

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11104443 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 4443

Author(s):

Rokas Štrimaitis ◽

Pavel Stefanovič ◽

Simona Ramanauskaitė ◽

Asta Slotkienė

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Sentiment Analysis ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Supervised Machine Learning ◽

Experimental Investigations ◽

Support Vector ◽

Applied Machine Learning ◽

Bayes Algorithm ◽

Website Content

Financial area analysis is not limited to enterprise performance analysis. It is worth analyzing as wide an area as possible to obtain the full impression of a specific enterprise. News website content is a datum source that expresses the public’s opinion on enterprise operations, status, etc. Therefore, it is worth analyzing the news portal article text. Sentiment analysis in English texts and financial area texts exist, and are accurate, the complexity of Lithuanian language is mostly concentrated on sentiment analysis of comment texts, and does not provide high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, the supervised machine learning model was implemented to assign sentiment analysis on financial context news, gathered from Lithuanian language websites. The analysis was made using three commonly used classification algorithms in the field of sentiment analysis. The hyperparameters optimization using the grid search was performed to discover the best parameters of each classifier. All experimental investigations were made using the newly collected datasets from four Lithuanian news websites. The results of the applied machine learning algorithms show that the highest accuracy is obtained using a non-balanced dataset, via the multinomial Naive Bayes algorithm (71.1%). The other algorithm accuracies were slightly lower: a long short-term memory (71%), and a support vector machine (70.4%).

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Machine learning–based reduced-order modeling of hydrodynamic forces using pressure mode decomposition

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part G Journal of Aerospace Engineering ◽

10.1177/0954410021999864 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 095441002199986

Author(s):

Hassan F Ahmed ◽

Hamayun Farooq ◽

Imran Akhtar ◽

Zafar Bangash

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Stokes Equations ◽

Decomposition Analysis ◽

Hydrodynamic Forces ◽

Reduced Order Modeling ◽

Navier Stokes ◽

Reduced Order ◽

Mode Decomposition ◽

Lift And Drag

In this article, we introduce a machine learning–based reduced-order modeling (ML-ROM) framework through the integration of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and deep neural networks (DNNs), in addition to long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The DNN is utilized to upscale POD temporal coefficients and their respective spatial modes to account for the dynamics represented by the truncated modes. In the second part of the algorithm, temporal evolution of the POD coefficients is obtained by recursively predicting their future states using an LSTM network. The proposed model (ML-ROM) is tested for flow past a circular cylinder characterized by the Navier–Stokes equations. We perform pressure mode decomposition analysis on the flow data using both POD and ML-ROM to predict hydrodynamic forces and demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed strategy for modeling lift and drag coefficients.

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Prediction of Head Movement in 360-Degree Videos Using Attention Model

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s21113678 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (11) ◽

pp. 3678

Author(s):

Dongwon Lee ◽

Minji Choi ◽

Joohyun Lee

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Moving Average ◽

The Other ◽

Learning Models ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Attention Model ◽

Long Short Term Memory ◽

Machine Learning Models

In this paper, we propose a prediction algorithm, the combination of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and attention model, based on machine learning models to predict the vision coordinates when watching 360-degree videos in a Virtual Reality (VR) or Augmented Reality (AR) system. Predicting the vision coordinates while video streaming is important when the network condition is degraded. However, the traditional prediction models such as Moving Average (MA) and Autoregression Moving Average (ARMA) are linear so they cannot consider the nonlinear relationship. Therefore, machine learning models based on deep learning are recently used for nonlinear predictions. We use the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network methods, originated in Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), and predict the head position in the 360-degree videos. Therefore, we adopt the attention model to LSTM to make more accurate results. We also compare the performance of the proposed model with the other machine learning models such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and RNN using the root mean squared error (RMSE) of predicted and real coordinates. We demonstrate that our model can predict the vision coordinates more accurately than the other models in various videos.

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