scholarly journals An agent based force vector model of social influence that predicts strong polarization in a connected world

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259625
Author(s):  
G. Jordan Maclay ◽  
Moody Ahmad

The model is based on a vector representation of each agent. The components of the vector are the key continuous “attributes” that determine the social behavior of the agent. A simple mathematical force vector model is used to predict the effect of each agent on all other agents. The force law used is motivated by gravitational force laws and electrical force laws for dipoles. It assumes that the force between two agents is proportional to the “similarity of attributes”, which is implemented mathematically as the dot product of the vectors representing the attributes of the agents, and the force goes as the inverse square of the difference in attributes, which is expressed as the Euclidean distance in attribute space between the two vectors. The force between the agents may be positive (attractive), zero, or negative (repulsive) depending on whether the angle between the corresponding vectors is less than, equal to, or greater than 90°. A positive force causes the attributes of the agents to become more similar and the corresponding vectors to become more nearly parallel. Interaction between all agents is allowed unless the distance between the attributes representing the agents exceeds a confidence limit (the Attribute Influence Bound) set in the simulation. Agents with similar attributes tend to form groups. For small values of the Attribute Influence Bound, numerous groups remain scattered throughout attribute space at the end of a simulation. As the Attribute Influence Bound is increased, and agents with increasingly different attributes can communicate, fewer groups remain at the end, and the remaining groups have increasingly different characteristic attributes and approximately equal sizes. With a large Attribute Influence Bound all agents are connected and extreme bi- or tri-polarization results. During the simulations, depending on the initial conditions, collective behaviors of grouping, consensus, fragmentation and polarization are observed as well as certain symmetries specific to the model, for example, the average of the attributes for all agents does not change significantly during a simulation.

Crisis ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 422-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masatsugu Orui

Abstract. Background: Monitoring of suicide rates in the recovery phase following a devastating disaster has been limited. Aim: We report on a 7-year follow-up of the suicide rates in the area affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred in March 2011. Method: This descriptive study covered the period from March 2009 to February 2018. Period analysis was used to divide the 108-month study period into nine segments, in which suicide rates were compared with national averages using Poisson distribution. Results: Male suicide rates in the affected area from March 2013 to February 2014 increased to a level higher than the national average. After subsequently dropping, the male rates from March 2016 to February 2018 re-increased and showed a greater difference compared with the national averages. The difference became significant in the period from March 2017 to February 2018 ( p = .047). Limitations: Specific reasons for increasing the rates in the recovery phase were not determined. Conclusion: The termination of the provision of free temporary housing might be influential in this context. Provision of temporary housing was terminated from 2016, which increased economic hardship among needy evacuees. Furthermore, disruption of the social connectedness in the temporary housing may have had an influence. Our findings suggest the necessity of suicide rate monitoring even in the recovery phase.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Narendra Kumar Singh ◽  
Nishant Goyal

Background: Schizophrenia is associated with a high familial, social and economic burden. Schizophrenia is also associated with a high level of disability which may create impediments on the social and economic areas of the patients as well as on their respective family networks. Families with schizophrenia may encounter problems such as impairment of health and well being of other family members, restriction of social activities of the family members and shrinking of support from the social network. Aims: The present study examined the difference in perceived social support and burden of care between the male and female caregivers of patients with schizophrenia. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study examining the difference in perceived social support and burden of care between the male and female caregivers of patients with schizophrenia. The sample consisted of 60 (30 male and 30 female) caregivers of the patients with the diagnosis of schizophrenia as per ICD-10-DCR. Results and Conclusion: This study revealed that male caregivers perceived more social support and less burden of care as compared to female caregivers. Key words: Gender, social support, burden


Author(s):  
S.A. Kirillina ◽  
A.L. Safronova ◽  
V.V. Orlov

Аннотация В статье изучены общие и специфические черты идейных воззрений, пропагандистской риторики и политических действий представителей халифатистского движения на Ближнем Востоке и в Южной Азии. В ретроспективном ключе прослеживается эволюция представлений о сущности и необходимости возрождения института халифата в трудах исламских идеологов, реформаторов и политиков Джамал ад-Дина ал-Афгани, Абд ар-Рахмана ал-Кавакиби, Мухаммада Рашида Риды, Абул Калама Азада. Внимание авторов сосредоточено на общественно-политических дискуссиях 2030-х годов XX столетия, а также на повестке дня халифатистских конгрессов и конференций этого периода. На них вырабатывались первые представления современников о пост-османском формате мусульманского единства и идейно-политической роли будущего халифата. Авторы демонстрируют различие между моделями реакции мусульман Ближнего Востока и Южной Азии на упразднение османского халифата республиканским руководством Турции. Установлена многоаспектная взаимосвязь между халифатистскими ценностями, проосманскими настроениями и формами самоотождествления, которые сложились в арабских и южноазиатских обществах. Отдельно намечено соотношение между подъемом халифатистских настроений и радикализацией антиколониальных действий мусульман Индостана.Abstract The article deals with analysis of common and specific features of ideas, propaganda, rhetoric and political actions taken by representatives of the movement for defense of the Caliphate in the Middle East and South Asia. The retrospection showing the transformation of conception of the Caliphate and the necessity of its revival in the works of eminent ideologists and politicians of the Muslim world Jamal al-Din al-Afghani, Abd al-Rahman al-Kawakibi, Muhammad Rashid Rida and Abul Kalam Azad, is also given in the article. The authors also focus on the social and political discussions of the 1920s 1930s, as well as on the agenda of Caliphatist congresses and conferences of this period. They helped to elaborate the early representations of post-Ottoman pattern of the Muslim unity and the ideological and political role of the future Caliphate. The authors demonstrate the difference between the forms of reaction of Muslims in the Middle East and South Asia to the repudiation of the Caliphate by the Republican leaders of Turkey. The article establishes a multi-aspect interaction between the Caliphatist values and forms of self-identification, emerged in Arab and South Asian societies. The correlation between the rise of Caliphatist attitudes and radicalization of anti-colonial actions of South Asian Muslims is also outlined.


Dreyfus argues that there is a basic methodological difference between the natural sciences and the social sciences, a difference that derives from the different goals and practices of each. He goes on to argue that being a realist about natural entities is compatible with pluralism or, as he calls it, “plural realism.” If intelligibility is always grounded in our practices, Dreyfus points out, then there is no point of view from which one can ask about or provide an answer to the one true nature of ultimate reality. But that is consistent with believing that the natural sciences can still reveal the way the world is independent of our theories and practices.


Author(s):  
Lexi Eikelboom

This book argues that, as a pervasive dimension of human existence with theological implications, rhythm ought to be considered a category of theological significance. Philosophers and theologians have drawn on rhythm—patterned movements of repetition and variation—to describe reality, however, the ways in which rhythm is used and understood differ based on a variety of metaphysical commitments with varying theological implications. This book brings those implications into the open, using resources from phenomenology, prosody, and the social sciences to analyse and evaluate uses of rhythm in metaphysical and theological accounts of reality. The analysis relies on a distinction from prosody between a synchronic approach to rhythm—observing the whole at once and considering how various dimensions of a rhythm hold together harmoniously—and a diachronic approach—focusing on the ways in which time unfolds as the subject experiences it. The text engages with the twentieth-century Jesuit theologian Erich Przywara alongside thinkers as diverse as Augustine and the contemporary philosopher Giorgio Agamben, and proposes an approach to rhythm that serves the concerns of theological conversation. It demonstrates the difference that including rhythm in theological conversation makes to how we think about questions such as “what is creation?” and “what is the nature of the God–creature relationship?” from the perspective of rhythm. As a theoretical category, capable of expressing metaphysical commitments, yet shaped by the cultural rhythms in which those expressing such commitments are embedded, rhythm is particularly significant for theology as a phenomenon through which culture and embodied experience influence doctrine.


Author(s):  
Gerald O’Collins, SJ

This book opens by establishing the substantial convergence in reflection on Christian tradition proposed by a 1963 report of the Faith and Order Commission (of the World Council of Churches) and the teaching of Vatican II (1962–5). Despite this ecumenical consensus, in recent years few theologians have written about tradition, and none has looked to the social sciences for insights into the nature and functions of tradition. Drawing above all on sociologists, this work shows the difference that tradition makes in human and religious life. In the light of the divine self-revelation that climaxed with Jesus Christ, the central characteristics of tradition are set out: in particular, its relationship to and distinction from culture. The risen Christ himself is the central Tradition (upper case) at the heart of Christian life. All the baptized faithful, and not merely their ordained leaders, play a role in transmitting tradition. The ‘sense of the faithful’ amounts to a ‘sense of the tradition’. The essential, if invisible, agent of tradition remains always the Holy Spirit. Scripture and tradition function in mutual dependence, as shown by the emergence of the creeds, the image of Christ as the New Adam, and the doctrine of justification (on which a 1999 joint declaration shows substantial agreement now reached by Lutherans, Roman Catholics, and others). The full context of Christian life and history focuses the relationship between Scripture and tradition. The book deals with the challenge of discerning and reforming particular traditions. A closing appendix shows how modern studies of memory—above all, collective memory—can illuminate ways in which tradition works to maintain Christian identity and continuity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.


Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 809
Author(s):  
Pawel Sobkowicz ◽  
Antoni Sobkowicz

Background: A realistic description of the social processes leading to the increasing reluctance to various forms of vaccination is a very challenging task. This is due to the complexity of the psychological and social mechanisms determining the positioning of individuals and groups against vaccination and associated activities. Understanding the role played by social media and the Internet in the current spread of the anti-vaccination (AV) movement is of crucial importance. Methods: We present novel, long-term Big Data analyses of Internet activity connected with the AV movement for such different societies as the US and Poland. The datasets we analyzed cover multiyear periods preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting the behavior of vaccine related Internet activity with high temporal resolution. To understand the empirical observations, in particular the mechanism driving the peaks of AV activity, we propose an Agent Based Model (ABM) of the AV movement. The model includes the interplay between multiple driving factors: contacts with medical practitioners and public vaccination campaigns, interpersonal communication, and the influence of the infosphere (social networks, WEB pages, user comments, etc.). The model takes into account the difference between the rational approach of the pro-vaccination information providers and the largely emotional appeal of anti-vaccination propaganda. Results: The datasets studied show the presence of short-lived, high intensity activity peaks, much higher than the low activity background. The peaks are seemingly random in size and time separation. Such behavior strongly suggests a nonlinear nature for the social interactions driving the AV movement instead of the slow, gradual growth typical of linear processes. The ABM simulations reproduce the observed temporal behavior of the AV interest very closely. For a range of parameters, the simulations result in a relatively small fraction of people refusing vaccination, but a slight change in critical parameters (such as willingness to post anti-vaccination information) may lead to a catastrophic breakdown of vaccination support in the model society, due to nonlinear feedback effects. The model allows the effectiveness of strategies combating the anti-vaccination movement to be studied. An increase in intensity of standard pro-vaccination communications by government agencies and medical personnel is found to have little effect. On the other hand, focused campaigns using the Internet and social media and copying the highly emotional and narrative-focused format used by the anti-vaccination activists can diminish the AV influence. Similar effects result from censoring and taking down anti-vaccination communications by social media platforms. The benefit of such tactics might, however, be offset by their social cost, for example, the increased polarization and potential to exploit it for political goals, or increased ‘persecution’ and ‘martyrdom’ tropes.


2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (11) ◽  
pp. 3401-3418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick A. Reinecke ◽  
Dale R. Durran

Abstract The sensitivity of downslope wind forecasts to small changes in initial conditions is explored by using 70-member ensemble simulations of two prototypical windstorms observed during the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX). The 10 weakest and 10 strongest ensemble members are composited and compared for each event. In the first case, the 6-h ensemble-mean forecast shows a large-amplitude breaking mountain wave and severe downslope winds. Nevertheless, the forecasts are very sensitive to the initial conditions because the difference in the downslope wind speeds predicted by the strong- and weak-member composites grows to larger than 28 m s−1 over the 6-h forecast. The structure of the synoptic-scale flow one hour prior to the windstorm and during the windstorm is very similar in both the weak- and strong-member composites. Wave breaking is not a significant factor in the second case, in which the strong winds are generated by a layer of high static stability flowing beneath a layer of weaker mid- and upper-tropospheric stability. In this case, the sensitivity to initial conditions is weaker but still significant. The difference in downslope wind speeds between the weak- and strong-member composites grows to 22 m s−1 over 12 h. During and one hour before the windstorm, the synoptic-scale flow exhibits appreciable differences between the strong- and weak-member composites. Although this case appears to be more predictable than the wave-breaking event, neither case suggests that much confidence should be placed in the intensity of downslope winds forecast 12 or more hours in advance.


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