scholarly journals Aid Effectiveness of Aid for Trade: An Empirical Analysis on the Extensive and Intensive Margins of Aid Recipients

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Kunhyui Kim
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Aid Effectiveness ◽  
Paris Declaration ◽  
Aid For Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness held in 2005 emphasized the role of Aid for Trade (AFT) on capacity building of developing nations. Past literature showed mixed results regarding the aid effectiveness of foreign aid both theoretically and empirically. To test the impact of foreign aid thoroughly, we first focus on the AFT which purposes are not only stimulating the volume of trade flow but also facilitating the construction of robust infrastructure and environment for developing nations to participate in the global economy independently. Second, we disaggregate bilateral trade into the extensive and intensive margin of international trade to examine whether AFT affects more on the new products traded or incumbent good. Lastly, we conduct Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation to control for zero-value observations and possible heteroskedasticity stemming from the sample. With different sample groups, the results indicate that AFT overall benefits the exports of aid recipients. Particularly, AFT from European Union (EU) shows the most considerable and consistent effect on both the new export and incumbent relationships. Furthermore, AFT from the EU facilitates the new export relationship between developing nations with other developing nations, specifically with those without a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) relationship, indicating that the aid from the EU is relatively effective in establishing new trade partners.

Institutional Quality and Trade Flow: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Other OIC Member Countries in Africa

2021 ◽  
pp. 097508782098717
Author(s):  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Luqman Olanrewaju Afolabi ◽  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Kafilah Lola Gold ◽  
Murtala Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
World Governance Indicators ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of institutional quality on bilateral trade flow between Malaysia and selected 25 African Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. Four institutional qualities were selected from World Governance Indicators with other trade predictors from the period from 1985 to 2016. Using gravity model of trade and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method (PPML) technique, the results confirm that government effectiveness, regulatory quality and political stability have an adverse effect on bilateral trade flow among the OIC countries in Africa. On the other hand, these institutional quality variables were considered as a strength for Malaysian economic growth. Therefore, better institutional quality reforms are needed among OIC member countries in Africa in order to accelerate trade, economic growth and development in their region.

scholarly journals Appraising the Impacts of Globalization on Gravity Model Economic Systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (09) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Bilal Khlaf Al Omari
Keyword(s):  
Latent Variable ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
General Hypothesis ◽  
The World ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Time Required ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at exploring the impact of economic globalization factors on the gravity economic systems. Nonetheless, the basis of the research is a gravity economic system exposed to the impacts of globalization, and the concern is to explore the effects of the exposure on the influences of distance and economic sizes on the model. Recognizing the role of population growth and globalization in driving bilateral trade follows is one of the objectives of this research as should be part of an economic model. The study used the modified gravity and globalization variables, data retrieved from the CEPII, the World Fact-book, and the World Bank. The ordinary squares regression and STATA statistical software were used to investigate the hypotheses. The model leading to the general hypothesis that globalization is reducing the cost of entry, and total time required to set up a business and to minimize the bureaucracy associated with registering businesses and launching operations. The trade flow latent variable should contain information on export, import, free trade agreements, preferential trade agreements, and union memberships, which would help in identifying globalization factors that mediate the interaction between global variables and bilateral trade responses.

PRIORITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION OF UKRAINE AND KAZAKHSTAN

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
В.И. Герасимчук ◽  
V. Gerasymchuk
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Глобальные перемены в мировой политике и экономике происходят под решающим влиянием стран «Большой семерки» и БРИКС, придя на смену биполярному миру (США – СССР). После развала СССР каждая из бывших 15 республик, а ныне независимых государств, выстраивает экономические отношения со странами-соседями, международными и региональными объединениями в соответствие со своими стратегическими намерениями. В статье анализируются тенденции социально-экономического развитии Украины и Казахстана в течение 1991-2020гг. Изложены особенности моделей трансформации экономик двух стран. Методологической основой исследования выступает сравнительный ретроспективный анализ происходящих изменений в экономиках обоих государств с применением рейтинговых инструментов и механизмов. Указаны различия в векторах при выборе стратегического партнерства: для Украины – это НАТО, США и ЕС, для Казахстана – ОДКБ, Россия, СНГ и ЕАЭС, а также Китай, США, государства Центральной Азии и ЕС. Обращено внимание на уязвимость национальных экономик от влияния мировых финансовых кризисов, разрывов прежних кооперационных связей, потерей традиционных рынков сбыта, комплекса нерешенных внутренних проблем. Дана оценка экспортного потенциала экономик двух стран; подчеркнута необходимость увеличения в его структуре продукции с высокой добавленной стоимостью. Детально рассмотрены тенденции развития двустороннего торгово-экономического сотрудничества. Предложен комплекс мер по увеличению товарооборота между Украиной и Казахстаном. Global changes in world politics and economy are taking place under the decisive influence of the G7 and BRICS countries, replacing the bipolar world (USA - USSR). After the collapse of the USSR, each of the former 15 republics, now independent states, is building economic relations with neighboring countries, international and regional associations in accordance with their strategic intentions. The article analyzes the trends in the socio-economic development of Ukraineand Kazakhstanduring 1991-2020. The features of the models of transformation of the economies of the two countries are stated. The methodological basis of the study is a comparative retrospective analysis of the ongoing changes in the economies of both countries using rating instruments and mechanisms. Differences in vectors when choosing a strategic partnership are indicated: for Ukraine, these are NATO, the USA and the EU, for Kazakhstan– the CSTO, Russia, the CIS and the EAEU, as well as China, the USA, the Central Asian states and the EU. Attention is drawn to the vulnerability of national economies to the impact of global financial crises, breaks of previous cooperation ties, loss of traditional sales markets, and a set of unresolved internal problems. The assessment of the export potential of the economies of the two countries is given; emphasized the need to increase its structure of products with high added value. Trends in the development of bilateral trade and economic cooperation are examined in detail. A set of measures has been proposed to increase trade between Ukraineand Kazakhstan.

scholarly journals A Geographic Incremental Theory of Democratization: Territory, Aid, and Democracy in Postcommunist Regions

2006 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 536-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomila V. Lankina ◽  
Lullit Getachew
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Institution Building ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The West ◽  
Democratic Institution ◽  
Democratic Reform ◽  
Border Regions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The article examines the impact of geographical proximity to the West and of Western aid on democracy in Russia's regions and advances ageographic incrementalisttheory of democratization. Even when national politicians exhibit authoritarian tendencies, diffusion processes and targeted foreign aid help advance democratization at the subnational level in postcommunist states and other settings. The authors make this case by conducting process-tracing case studies of democratic institution building in two northwestern border regions and statistical analysis of over one thousand projects that the European Union carried out in Russia's localities over fourteen years. They find that the EU shows commitment to democratic reform particularly in, but not limited to, regions located on its eastern frontier. Over time, this, as well as diffusion processes from the West, positively affects the democratic trajectory of the respective regions even if they had been more closed to begin with compared to other regions.

scholarly journals The Impact of Hard Brexit on Polish Exports

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Jakub Borowski ◽  
Jakub Olipra ◽  
Paweł Błaszyński
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
First Year ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The decision of the United Kingdom (UK) to leave the European Union (EU) is unprecedented, especially considering the recent trend in the global economy toward economic integration. There is a multitude of research concerning the implications of economic integration; however, research in the field of disintegration is scarce. Brexit serves as an interesting case study to investigate the effects of economic disintegration. The implications for trade are especially fascinating as trade liberalization is one of the most important benefits of economic integration. Existing studies focus mainly on Brexit’s impact on the UK’s exports and imports, while less attention has been paid to Brexit’s effects on the trade of other countries. The main objective of our research is to estimate Brexit’s influence on Polish exports. We present several possible scenarios of future trade relations between the UK and the EU and assume that, at least in the nearest-future post-Brexit scenario, trade under the World Trade Organization rules is most likely. This will result in the imposition of tariffs on trade between the UK and the EU members, including Poland. In our research, we used the real exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the British pound as a proxy for the changes in price competitiveness of Polish exports due to the imposition of tariffs. We find that in the first year after Brexit, the dynamics of Polish exports to the UK will decrease due to the imposition of customs duties by 1.3 percentage points (pp) and by 0.1 pp when it comes to total Polish exports. This paper contributes to the discussion on the effects of disintegration on trade. We propose a new method for assessing changes in trade volume due to increase of trade barriers.

scholarly journals The Consequences of Foreign Direct Investments in Redefining Bilateral Trade Flow in Nigeria: A Gravity Panel Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-379
Author(s):  
Saidu D Muhammad ◽  
Kenneth O Diyoke ◽  
Nnanna P Azu
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
The Impact

Most of the Nigerian government’s transformation agenda is geared toward creating and enabling business environments to attract foreign direct investment. Opinions are divided as to the impact of foreign investment on trade and this researcher believed it could be either positive or negative. Hence, this research is to ascertain the magnitude of foreign investment’s impact on Nigeria’s bilateral trade. Integrating foreign direct investment in the gravity model, we applied the PPML technique because of its robustness and ability to recognise zero trade. We segregated foreign investment into three-flow, stock and its annual growth. Our estimation revealed that foreign direct investment stock impacts negatively on bilateral trade flow in Nigeria for both exports and imports and it is robust with the overall sample. Exporters’ foreign direct investment inflow was also revealed to have an impact on bilateral trade in Nigeria. But in all ramifications the magnitude of the negative impact is relatively small but statistically significant reflecting that trade and inward foreign investment are at least substitutes. Nigeria should further encourage inward foreign investment to further stimulate economic growth and aid in creating import substitution.

scholarly journals THE COVID-19 DISEASE AND POLICY RESPONSE TO MITIGATE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN THE EU

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Marek Zinecker ◽  
Karel Doubravský ◽  
Adam P. Balcerzak ◽  
Michał Bernard Pietrzak ◽  
Mirko Dohnal
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Unique Event ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Future Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

This study aims to understand how Covid-19 contagious disease and the EU’s policy response may affect macroeconomic performance. Previous studies on this topic have used historical data sets on “rare macroeconomic disasters” such as Great Influenza to assess the impact of the current pandemic on the global economy. The authors examine the main channels of transmission and targeted policy response to mitigate crisis qualitatively. The authors use heuristics and apply qualitative trend-based analysis because the current pandemic is a unique event for which accurate quantitative data are not currently available. Researchers first identify a set of eight variables based on previous academic theories. They then express each variable as a trend: ascending, descending, and constant. The numerical calculations consist of 17 scenarios, supplemented by 24 transitions and a transition graph. Besides, the article proposes a graphical solution to examine the change in GDP that is too small. The results of the study should be understood as a reference point to allow both private and public stakeholders to understand better the relationship between the observed variables and their dynamics. The research provides a comprehensive list of future events to examine further the implications for the economy as a whole and each individual.

External Sector: Between Congestion and Sanctions—‘Syrian Economy Case, 1987–2018’

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 382-401
Author(s):  
Forat Suliman ◽  
Homam Khwanda
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade Sector ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Impact

Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in March 2011, the USA, European Union, Arab League and several other regulatory entities imposed negative economic sanctions on Syria—some of the most comprehensive ever implemented. This article first provides an assessment of Syrian foreign trade sector during the reform period of the 2000s and its impact on economic growth. Second, it estimates the impact of sanctions and conflict on the trade sector of the Syrian economy. The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity model between Syria and 78 trading partners (1987–2017). Multilateral sanctions and conflict-related disruptions demonstrate a large significant negative impact on Syria-bilateral trade flow by 65 per cent. We attempt to find out whether the Syrian economy was able to divert trade away from Europe and/or conduct de-Europeanisation. Findings confirm that the Syrian economy was unable to divert trade flow to Asian and other countries due to the conflict-related congestion and distance factor. JEL: C33, F10

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 1094-1132
Author(s):  
Shon M Ferguson ◽  
Johan Gars
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Unit Value ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities, we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 per cent increase in production leading to a 0.5 per cent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15–20 per cent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

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