scholarly journals Kecenderungan dan Perubahan Hujan Ekstrem Harian di Pulau Madura

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
Ahmad Nur Akma Juangga Fura ◽  
Retno Utami Agung Wiyono ◽  
Indarto Indarto
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
High Level ◽  
Crossing Test

Madura subject to a high level of flood hazard. One of the main causes of flood is extreme rainfall. Global warming generates changes in the amount of extreme rainfall. This research is conducted to identify and to analyze the trends, changes, and randomness of 24-hour extreme rainfall data on Madura Island. The method used is a non-parametric method which includes the Median Crossing test, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Rank-Sum test at the significance level of α =0.05. The analysis was carried out on 31 rain gauge stations. The recording period observed is between 1991-2015. The results of the analysis show that based on the Median Crossing test, most rainfall stations have data originating from random processes. The result shows also that the maximum 24-hour extreme rainfall trend is significantly decreased in a few locations, while for the majority of other stations have no experience a significant trend.

Extreme Rainfall Events in the Macro-Metropolis of São Paulo: trends and connection with climate oscillations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyne B. Machado ◽  
Thamiris L. O. B. Campos ◽  
Sameh A. Abou Rafee ◽  
Jorge A. Martins ◽  
Alice M. Grimm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Climatic Indices

AbstractIn the present work, the trend of extreme rainfall indices in the Macro-Metropolis of São Paulo (MMSP) was analyzed and correlated with largescale climatic oscillations. A cluster analysis divided a set of rain gauge stations into three homogeneous regions within MMSP, according to the annual cycle of rainfall. The entire MMSP presented an increase in the total annual rainfall, from 1940 to 2016, of 3 mm per year on average, according to Mann-Kendall test. However, there is evidence that the more urbanized areas have a greater increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, while coastal and mountainous areas, and regions outside large urban areas, have increasing rainfall in a better-distributed way throughout the year. The evolution of extreme rainfall (95th percentile) is significantly correlated with climatic indices. In the center-north part of the MMSP, the combination of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) explains 45% of the P95th increase during the wet season. In turn, in southern MMSP, the Temperature of South Atlantic (TSA), the AAO, the El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) and the Multidecadal Oscillation of the North Atlantic (AMO) better explain the increase in extreme rainfall (R2 = 0.47). However, the same is not observed during the dry season, in which the P95th variation was only negatively correlated with the AMO, undergoing a decrease from the ‘70s until the beginning of this century. The occurrence of rainy anomalous months proved to be more frequent and associated with climatic indices than dry months.

scholarly journals Trend and spatial variability of 1-day extreme rainfall from 1980 - 2015: study at the adminisitrative area of UPT PSDA Pasuruan

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Indarto Indarto
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Statistical Test ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Main Input ◽  
Crossing Test

This study aims to analyze trends,  shift and spatial variability of extreme-rainfall in the area of UPT PSDA Pasuruan. The daily rainfall data from 64 stations from 1980 until 2015 were used as main input. The 1-day extreem rainfall data is determined as the maximum annual of 24-hour rainfall events.  The statistical  analysis using Mann-Kendall, Rank-Sum, and Median Crossing Test using significance level α = 0,05. The spatial variability of extrem rainfall data is described using average annual 24-hour rainfall during the periods of record. Each station is represented by one value. The values are then interpolated using IDW interpolation methods to maps the spatial variability of extreem rainfall event.  The results show the value of statistical test for each stations that show the existing  trend, shift, or randomness of data. The result also produce thematic maps show the spatial variability of extreme rainfall and the value of each trend.

scholarly journals Drought indices and trend analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-45
Author(s):  
Patrik Nagy ◽  
Martina Zeleňáková
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Reconnaissance Drought Index ◽  
Rdi Index ◽  
Dry Seasons ◽  
The Subject

Abstract In recent times, extremely dry seasons have been occurring more and more often in the eastern Slovakia, alternating with extremely wet seasons like torrential floods from extreme rainfall. Trend of reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and streamflow drought index (SDI) was evaluated in the paper using the Mann-Kendall test. The indices were evaluated at six climatic and river stations in the eastern Slovakia. The Mann-Kendal test results showed that the trend in the SDI index is not significant in 5 stations and only in one station the trend is significant. In the RDI index the trend is not significant in four stations and the trend is significant in two stationshe abstract is to indicate the subject of the paper, how the author proposes to develop the subject and its overall objective, aim or outcome.

MANN-KENDALL TEST: TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE, RAINFALL AND DISCHARGE OF GHOTKI FEEDER CANAL IN DISTRICT GHOTKI, SINDH, PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-142
Author(s):  
Shoukat Ali Shah ◽  
Madeeha Kiran
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Flow ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Rabi Season ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Temperature and precipitation variations have huge environmental, socio-economic impacts. This study aims to detect the trend of temperature, precipitation, and discharge from 2000-2020 in the district Ghotki. Mann Kendal test and Sen’s slope were applied by using XLSTAT in MS Excel to investigate the significance of all trends. The results showed that the annual rainfall trend was increased with the highest intensity noted in 2003; 275mm and 2010; 271 mm. The trend in the monsoon season was increased with the highest slope 0.863 by comparing with non-monsoon which showed the slope was 0.642. The annual temperature was increased an average temperature recorded in 2016; 28.5 & 2018; 28 °C. Further, the summer-autumn season’s trend has sharply increased. While the trend of Ghotki feeder discharge was slightly increased in January due to the continuous flow of water and less demand for water during the Rabi season. But in July, the highest discharge was recorded in 2010 due to heavy rainfall and flood situations over the study area. The trend in Kharif was continuously declined due to farmers started sowing sugarcane crops instead of rice and cotton which need less irrigation water. It is concluded that the performance of MK and SS tests was consistent at the verified significance level.

scholarly journals A rapid flood inundation model in the floodplain area due to an extreme rainfall event

2021 ◽  
Vol 325 ◽  
pp. 01024
Author(s):  
Indah Salsabiela ◽  
Kuswantoro Marko ◽  
Mangapul P. Tambunan ◽  
Faris Zulkarnain
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Inundation Modelling ◽  
Hazard Area ◽  
High Level ◽  
Rapid Modeling ◽  
Floodplain Area

Extreme rainfall in East Jakarta on February 19, 2021 caused flooding in a number of subdistricts. The research was conducted in the central part of Kali Sunter, which flows through three subdistricts, namely Cipinang Melayu, Cipinang Muara, and Pondok Bambu. The purpose of the study was to do flood hazard modeling and analyze the characteristics of flood-affected areas based on land use and topography. Inundation and flood hazard maps is done by: calculating the flood discharge using the SCS-CN method, flood inundation modelling using HEC-RAS, and analyzing the characteristics of the inundated area. This combination is effective for rapid modeling during extreme rainfall events. Based on the research, the distribution of the highest flood hazard area is in RW 004 Cipinang Melayu, with the widest inundation affecting small and medium-sized houses. The characteristics of the affected area are that there is green and empty land which reduces the potential for water to inundate buildings or other land uses. Buildings located in low-hazard housing areas tend to be more organized and relatively medium to large in size. While the types of housing in the Cipinang Melayu with a high level of danger tend to be dense and small to medium in size, but the majority have two floors as a form of flood adaptation.

scholarly journals Coastal flood risk within a peri-urban area: SUSSEX Inlet district, SE Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. F. Asbridge ◽  
D. Low Choy ◽  
B. Mackey ◽  
S. Serrao-Neumann ◽  
P. Taygfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Planning Strategies ◽  
Natural Resource Managers

AbstractThe peri-urban interface (PUI) exhibits characteristic qualities of both urban and rural regions, and this complexity has meant that risk assessments and long-term planning for PUI are lagging, despite these areas representing new developing settlement frontiers. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by modifying an existing approach to quantify and assess flood risk. The risk triangle framework was used to map exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables; however, in a novel application, the risk triangle framework was adapted by presuming that there is a variation in the degree of exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables. Within Australia and globally, PUIs are often coastal, and flood risk associated with rainfall and coastal inundation poses considerable risk to communities in the PUI; these risks will be further exacerbated should projections of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and accelerating sea-level rise eventuate. An indicator-based approach using the risk triangle framework that maps flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability was used to integrate the biophysical and socio-economic flooding risk for communities in PUI of the St Georges Basin and Sussex Inlet catchments of south-eastern Australia. Integrating the flood risk triangle with future scenarios of demographic and climate change, and considering factors that contribute to PUI flood risk, facilitated the identification of planning strategies that would reduce the future rate of increase in flood risk. These planning strategies are useful for natural resource managers and land use planners across Australia and globally, who are tasked with balancing socio-economic prosperity for a changing population, whilst maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services and values. The indicator-based approach used in this study provides a cost-effective first-pass risk assessment and is a valuable tool for decision makers planning for flood risk across PUIs in NSW and globally.

scholarly journals Impacts of Polarimetric Radar Observations on Hydrologic Simulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 781-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Scott E. Giangrande ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Zachary L. Flamig ◽  
Terry Schuur ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Polarimetric Radar ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
Radar Observations

Abstract Rainfall estimated from the polarimetric prototype of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler [WSR-88D (KOUN)] was evaluated using a dense Micronet rain gauge network for nine events on the Ft. Cobb research watershed in Oklahoma. The operation of KOUN and its upgrade to dual polarization was completed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Storm events included an extreme rainfall case from Tropical Storm Erin that had a 100-yr return interval. Comparisons with collocated Micronet rain gauge measurements indicated all six rainfall algorithms that used polarimetric observations had lower root-mean-squared errors and higher Pearson correlation coefficients than the conventional algorithm that used reflectivity factor alone when considering all events combined. The reflectivity based relation R(Z) was the least biased with an event-combined normalized bias of −9%. The bias for R(Z), however, was found to vary significantly from case to case and as a function of rainfall intensity. This variability was attributed to different drop size distributions (DSDs) and the presence of hail. The synthetic polarimetric algorithm R(syn) had a large normalized bias of −31%, but this bias was found to be stationary. To evaluate whether polarimetric radar observations improve discharge simulation, recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) were used. This Bayesian approach infers the posterior probability density function of model parameters and output predictions, which allows us to quantify HL-RDHM uncertainty. Hydrologic simulations were compared to observed streamflow and also to simulations forced by rain gauge inputs. The hydrologic evaluation indicated that all polarimetric rainfall estimators outperformed the conventional R(Z) algorithm, but only after their long-term biases were identified and corrected.

Heavy precipitating events in satellites and rain-gauge products over the Sahel

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidiki Sanogo ◽  
Philippe Peyrillé ◽  
Romain Roehrig ◽  
Françoise Guichard ◽  
Ousmane Ouedraogo
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reference Dataset ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Microwave Sensor ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
Distribution Intensity ◽  
Rain Gauge Network

<p>The Sahel has experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events over the recent decades. These trends are expected to continue in the future. However the properties of these events have so far received little attention. In the present study, we define a heavy precipitating event (HPE) as the occurrence of daily-mean precipitation exceeding a given percentile (e.g., 99<sup>th</sup> and higher) over a 1°x1° pixel and examine their spatial distribution, intensity, seasonality and interannual variability. We take advantage of an original reference dataset based on a rather high-density rain-gauge network over Burkina Faso (142 stations) to evaluate 22 precipitation gridded datasets often used in the literature, based on rain-gauge-only measurements, satellite measurements, or both. Our reference dataset documents the HPEs over Burkina Faso. The 99<sup>th</sup> percentile identifies events greater than 26 mm d<sup>-1</sup> with a ~2.5 mm confidence interval depending on the number of stations within a 1°x1° pixel. The HPEs occur in phase with the West African monsoon annual cycle, more frequently during the monsoon core season and during wet years. The evaluation of the gridded rainfall products reveals that only two of the datasets, namely the rain-gauge-only based products GPCC-DDv1 and REGENv1, are able to properly reproduce all of the HPE features examined in the present work. A subset of the remaining rainfall products also provide satisfying skills over Burkina Faso, but generally only for a few HPE features examined here. In particular, we notice a general better performance for rainfall products that include rain-gauge data in the calibration process, while estimates using microwave sensor measurements are prone to overestimate the HPE intensity. The agreement among the 22 datasets is also assessed over the entire Sahel region. While the meridional gradient in HPE properties is well captured by the good performance subset, the zonal direction exhibit larger inter-products spread. This advocates for the need to continue similar evaluation with the available rain-gauge network available in West Africa, both to enhance the HPE documentation and understanding at the scale of the region and to help improve the rainfall dataset quality.</p>

scholarly journals Examination of Stress States and Lifestyle Habits of Academic and Administrative Personnel Holding Office at Universities

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Levent Var ◽  
Ahmet Dinc
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Regular Exercise ◽  
Lifestyle Habits ◽  
Positive Direction ◽  
Workplace Environment ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Administrative Personnel ◽  
Stress States ◽  
High Level

The purpose of this research is to examine the relation between the stresses and some lifestyle habits of academic and administrative personnel holding office at Ahi Evran University. 368 personnel in total as being 252 academic and 116 administrative personnel working holding office at Ahi Evran University had participated in this study. In the study, “Health - Exercise and Physical Activity Consciousness Level” questionnaire, developed by Dolasır Tuncel and Tuncel (2009), had been used as data collection tool. SPSS 22,0 packaged software had been used in the statistical analysis of data obtained, and the results had been evaluated at significance level of p<0,05. As the result of the research, by the comparison of states of regular exercise and being stressful among the academic and administrative personnel, significance had been determined at a level of .000 (p<0.001) for regular exercise, and of .021 (p<0.05) for being stressful. Moreover, when the relation among frequent tension, stressful workplace environment, alcohol consumption, regular exercise and smoking of academic and administrative personnel, a relation at high level in positive direction had been determined between frequent tension and stressful workplace environment (r=,723, p<0.001), a relation at very low level in positive direction had been determined between frequent tension and alcohol consumption (r=,124, p<0.001), and a relation at low level in positive direction had been determined between smoking and alcohol consumption (r=,422, p<0.001). Thus, it is being observed that the stress states of academic and administrative personnel holding office at Ahi Evran University are being affected depending on the workplace environment, and that the alcohol consumption of the personnel is increasing as the cigarette consumption increases.  

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall in the Mediterranean: What Can We Learn from Observations?

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 906-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Rebora ◽  
L. Molini ◽  
E. Casella ◽  
A. Comellas ◽  
E. Fiori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
Ground Effects

Abstract Flash floods induced by extreme rainfall events represent one of the most life-threatening phenomena in the Mediterranean. While their catastrophic ground effects are well documented by postevent surveys, the extreme rainfall events that generate them are still difficult to observe properly. Being able to collect observations of such events will help scientists to better understand and model these phenomena. The recent flash floods that hit the Liguria region (Italy) between the end of October and beginning of November 2011 give us the opportunity to use the measurements available from a large number of sensors, both ground based and spaceborne, to characterize these events. In this paper, the authors analyze the role of the key ingredients (e.g., unstable air masses, moist low-level jets, steep orography, and a slow-evolving synoptic pattern) for severe rainfall processes over complex orography. For the two Ligurian events, this role has been analyzed through the available observations (e.g., Meteosat Second Generation, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the Italian Radar Network mosaic, and the Italian rain gauge network observations). The authors then address the possible role of sea–atmosphere interactions and propose a characterization of these events in terms of their predictability.

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