Bioenergy production and land use changes in the context of the food-fuel-fibre nexus and climate change in West Africa

Abstract. This study analysed the separate and the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on hydrology on the Bonsa catchment in Ghana, West Africa, using the ACRU hydrological model. The study used five RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (wet, 25th percentile, 75th percentile, dry and a multi-model median of nine GCMs) from the CMIP5 AR5 models for near (2020–2039) and far (2060–2079) future time slices. Change factors were used to downscale the GCM scenarios to the local scale, using observed climate data for the control period of 1990 to 2009. The land use of 1991 and 2011 were used as the baseline and current land use as well as three future land use scenarios (BAU, EG, EGR) for two time slices (2030 and 2070) were used. The study showed that under all separate climate change scenarios, overall flows reduced, but under combined climate and land use changes, streamflows increased. Under the combined scenarios, streamflow responses due to the different future land use scenarios were not substantially different. Also, land use is the dominant controlling factor in streamflow changes in the Bonsa catchment under a dry climate change, but under a wet climate change, climate controls streamflow changes. The spatial variability of catchment streamflow changes under combined land use and climate changes were greater than the spatial variability of streamflow changes under climate change. The range of plausible future streamflows changes derived in this study provides natural resources and environmental managers of the Bonsa catchment, the first ever and the most current information to develop suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies, to prepare adequately for climate and land use changes.

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Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Land ◽

10.3390/land10060627 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 627

Author(s):

Duong H. Nong ◽

An T. Ngo ◽

Hoa P. T. Nguyen ◽

Thuy T. Nguyen ◽

Lan T. Nguyen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Household Survey ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Agricultural Land Use ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

Land Uses

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

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Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-20-4129-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 20 (10) ◽

pp. 4129-4142 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Emma Daniels ◽

Geert Lenderink ◽

Ronald Hutjes ◽

Albert Holtslag

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

The Netherlands ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Circulation Type ◽

Weather Research And Forecasting ◽

Temperature Perturbation ◽

Change Scenario

Abstract. The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3–5 and 2–5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7–8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2–6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

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Assessing the Opportunity Cost of Carbon Stock Caused by Land-Use Changes in Taiwan

Land ◽

10.3390/land10111240 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1240

Author(s):

Ming-Yun Chu ◽

Wan-Yu Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Opportunity Cost ◽

Carbon Stock ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Market Price ◽

The Government

As compared with conventional approaches for reducing carbon emissions, the strategies of reducing emissions from deforestations and forest degradation (REDD) can greatly reduce costs. Hence, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change regards the REDD strategies as a crucial approach to mitigate climate change. To respond to climate change, Taiwan passed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act to control the emissions of greenhouse gases. In 2021, the Taiwan government has announced that it will achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2050. Accordingly, starting with focusing on the carbon sink, the REDD strategies have been considered a recognized and feasible strategy in Taiwan. This study analyzed the net present value and carbon storage for various land-use types to estimate the carbon stock and opportunity cost of land-use changes. When the change of agricultural land to artificial forests generated carbon stock, the opportunity cost of carbon stock was negative. Contrarily, restoring artificial forests (which refer to a kind of forest that is formed through artificial planting, cultivation, and conservation) to agricultural land would generate carbon emissions, but create additional income. Since the opportunity cost of carbon storage needs to be lower than the carbon market price so that landlords have incentives to conduct REDD+, the outcomes of this study can provide a reference for the government to set an appropriate subsidy or price for carbon sinks. It is suggested that the government should offer sufficient incentives to reforest collapsed land, and implement interventions, promote carbon trading policies, or regulate the development of agricultural land so as to maintain artificial broadleaf forests for increased carbon storage.

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Land Cover/ Land Use Change and Climate Change in Dhofar Governorate, Oman

International Journal of Geoinformatics ◽

10.52939/ijg.v17i4.1949 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 41-47

Author(s):

E. Ramadan ◽

T. Al-Awadhi ◽

Y. Charabi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Spatial Differentiation ◽

Study Results ◽

Vegetation Activity ◽

The Status ◽

Landsat Satellite

The study of land cover/land use dynamics under climate change conditions is of great significance for improving sustainable ecological management. Understanding the relationships between land cover and land use changes and climate change is thus very important. Understanding the interactive and cumulative effects of climate and land-use changes are a priority for urban planners and policy makers. The present investigation is based on Landsat satellite imagery to explore changes in vegetation spatial distribution between the years from 2000 to2018 The methodology is focused on vegetation indexes tracking and algebraic overlay calculation to analyzed vegetation and their spatial differentiation, land cover change pattern, and the relationships between vegetation dynamics and land cover change in Dhofar Governorate. The study results have revealed that the vegetation vigor is lower in all years compared to 2000. The scene of 2010 shows the minimum vegetation vigor, overall. Besides, the investigation shows a statistical relationship between rainfall and the status of the health of vegetation. Monsoon rainfall has an impact of the growth of vegetation. Between 2012 and 2013, the vegetation activity shows a decreasing trend. The analysis diagnoses an area affected by the worst degree of aridity situated in the southeastern of Dhofar Mountains. Climate change is the main driving factor resulted from both human activities and rainfall fluctuation.

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Modelling the Hydrologic Regime of Arid Inland Wetlands: Non-linear Relationship Between Root-uptakes of Water and Underground Water Table

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13997 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lin Li ◽

Hu Liu ◽

Yang Yu ◽

Wenzhi Zhao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Water Table ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Northwestern China ◽

Wetland Ecosystem ◽

Soil Moisture Dynamics ◽

Inland Wetlands ◽

Moisture Dynamics

Abstract: Wetlands remaining in the arid inland river landscapes of northwestern China suffer degradation and their resilience and ability to continue functioning under hydrologic and land use changes resulting from climate change may be significantly inhibited. Information on the desert-oasis wetlands, however, is sparse and knowledge of how ecological functioning and resilience may change under climate change and water-resource management is still lacking. Research in oasis wetland areas of the Northwestern China identified linkages between subsurface flow, plant transpiration, and water levels. In this study, we present an ecohydrological analysis of the energy and water balance in the wetland ecosystem. A process-based stochastic soil moisture model developed for groundwater-dependent ecosystems was employed to modelling the interactions between rainfall, water table fluctuations, soil moisture dynamics, and vegetation, and to investigate the ecohydrology of arid inland wetlands system. Field measured groundwater levels, vertical soil moisture profiles, soil water potentials, and root biomass allocation and transpiration of pioneer species in the wetlands were used to calibrate and validate the stochastic model. The parameterized model was then running to simulate the probability distributions of soil moisture and root water uptake, and quantitative descript the vegetation&#8211;water table&#8211;soil moisture interplay in the hypothesized scenarios of future. Our analysis suggested the increasing rates of water extraction and regulation of hydrologic processes, coupled with destruction of natural vegetation, and climate change, are jeopardizing the future persistence of wetlands and the ecological and socio-economic functions they support. To understand how climate change will impact on the ecohydrological functioning of wetlands, both hydrological and land use changes need to be considered in future works.Keywords: Wetland ecosystem, groundwater, soil moisture dynamics, water balances, Heihe River Basin

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Global Natural Hazard and Disaster Vulnerability Management

Handbook of Research on Environmental Policies for Emergency Management and Public Safety - Advances in Wireless Technologies and Telecommunication ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-3194-4.ch005 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 83-104

Author(s):

Nkemdilim Maureen Ekpeni ◽

Amidu Owolabi Ayeni

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Natural Resources ◽

Natural Hazard ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Physical Environments ◽

Vulnerability Management ◽

Research Findings ◽

Two Sides

This chapter examines both concept of global hazard and disaster and its management in the lights of its vulnerability. It categorized the different types of hazards and disasters and their components. From the research findings, it is observed that hazards and disaster are two sides of a coin. They occur at the interface between human systems and natural events in our physical environments. This chapter highlights that the major environmental changes driving hazards and vulnerability to disasters are climate change, land-use changes, and degradation of natural resources. After presenting a typology of disasters and their magnitude globally, management of disaster has transited from just being a “response and relief”-centric approach to a mitigation and preparedness approach.

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Watershed-Scale Impact of Land-use changes for Bioenergy Production

10.13031/2013.41411 ◽

2012 ◽

Author(s):

David D Bosch ◽

Jeff G Arnold ◽

Jim R Kiniry ◽

George Vellidis ◽

Puneet Srivastava

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Watershed Scale ◽

Bioenergy Production

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Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽

10.3390/w11091790 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 1790 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Muhammad Afzal ◽

Ragab Ragab

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

High Emission ◽

The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

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Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11051443 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 1443 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Rui Yan ◽

Yanpeng Cai ◽

Chunhui Li ◽

Xuan Wang ◽

Qiang Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Loess Plateau ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Water Yield ◽

The Loess Plateau ◽

Runoff Water ◽

Lulc Change

This study researched the individual and combined impacts of future LULC and climate changes on water balance in the upper reaches of the Beiluo River basin on the Loess Plateau of China, using the scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate data indicated that both precipitation and temperature increased at seasonal and annual scales from 2020 to 2050 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The future land use changes were predicted through the CA-Markov model. The land use predictions of 2025, 2035, and 2045 indicated rising forest areas with decreased agricultural land and grassland. In this study, three scenarios including only LULC change, only climate change, and combined climate and LULC change were established. The SWAT model was calibrated, validated, and used to simulate the water balance under the three scenarios. The results showed that increased rainfall and temperature may lead to increased runoff, water yield, and ET in spring, summer, and autumn and to decreased runoff, water yield, and ET in winter from 2020 to 2050. However, LULC change, compared with climate change, may have a smaller impact on the water balance. On an annual scale, runoff and water yield may gradually decrease, but ET may increase. The combined effects of both LULC and climate changes on water balance in the future were similar to the variation trend of climate changes alone at both annual and seasonal scales. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area.

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