The Impact of Targeted Data Collection on Nonresponse Bias in an Establishment Survey: A Simulation Study of Adaptive Survey Design

Abstract Nonresponse rates have been growing over time leading to concerns about survey data quality. Adaptive designs seek to allocate scarce resources by targeting specific subsets of sampled units for additional effort or a different recruitment protocol. In order to be effective in reducing nonresponse, the identified subsets of the sample need two key features: 1) their probabilities of response can be impacted by changing design features, and 2) once they have responded, this can have an impact on estimates after adjustment. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is investigating the use of adaptive design techniques in the Crops Acreage, Production, and Stocks Survey (Crops APS). The Crops APS is a survey of establishments which vary in size and, hence, in their potential impact on estimates. In order to identify subgroups for targeted designs, we conducted a simulation study that used Census of Agriculture (COA) data as proxies for similar survey items. Different patterns of nonresponse were simulated to identify subgroups that may reduce estimated nonresponse bias when their response propensities are changed.

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Towards Principled Unskewing: Viewing 2020 Election Polls Through a Corrective Lens from 2016

10.31219/osf.io/29pvm ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Isakov ◽

Shiro Kuriwaki

Keyword(s):

Systematic Errors ◽

Nonresponse Bias ◽

Donald Trump ◽

Defect Index ◽

Approximate Methods ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Election Polls ◽

The Impact ◽

Corrective Lens

We apply the concept of the data defect index to study the potential impact of systematic errors on the 2020 pre-election polls in 12 presidential battleground states. We investigate the impact under the hypothetical scenarios that (1) the magnitude of the underlying nonresponse bias correlated with supporting Donald Trump is similar to that of the 2016 polls, (2) the pollsters’ ability to correct systematic errors via weighting has not improved significantly, and (3) turnout levels remain similar to 2016. Because survey weights are crucial for our investigations but are often not released, we adopt two approximate methods under different modeling assumptions. Under these scenarios, which may be far from reality, our models shift Trump’s estimated two-party voteshare by a percentage point in his favor in the median battleground state, and increases twofold the uncertainty around the voteshare estimate.

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Group sequential adaptive designs in series of time-to-event randomised trials in rare diseases: A simulation study

Statistical Methods in Medical Research ◽

10.1177/0962280219862313 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (6) ◽

pp. 1483-1498 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mohamed Amine Bayar ◽

Gwénaël Le Teuff ◽

Franz Koenig ◽

Marie-Cécile Le Deley ◽

Stefan Michiels

Keyword(s):

Rare Diseases ◽

Simulation Study ◽

Interim Analysis ◽

Risk Control ◽

Adaptive Designs ◽

Moderate Increase ◽

Survival Gain ◽

Α Level ◽

The Impact

In rare diseases, fully powered large trials may not be doable in a reasonable time frame even with international collaborations. In a previous work, we proposed an approach based on a series of smaller parallel group two-arm randomised controlled trials (RCT) performed over a long research horizon. Within the series of trials, the treatment selected after each trial becomes the control treatment of the next one. We concluded that running more trials with smaller sample sizes and relaxed α-levels leads in the long term and under reasonable assumptions to larger survival benefits with a moderate increase of risk as compared to traditional designs based on larger but fewer trials designed to meet stringent evidence criteria. We now extend this quantitative framework with more ‘flexible’ designs including interim analyses for futility and/or efficacy, and three-arm adaptive designs with treatment selection at interim. In the simulation study, we considered different disease severities, accrual rates, and hypotheses of how treatments improve over time. For each design, we estimated the long-term survival benefit as the relative difference in hazard rates between the end and the start of the research horizon, and the risk defined as the probability of selecting at the end of the research horizon a treatment inferior to the initial control. We assessed the impact of the α-level and the choice of the stopping rule on the operating characteristics. We also compared the performance of series based on two- vs. three-arm trials. We show that relaxing α-levels within the limit of 0.1 is associated with larger survival gains and moderate increase of risk which remains within acceptable ranges. Including an interim analysis with a futility rule is associated with an additional survival gain and a better risk control as compared to series with no interim analysis, when the α-level is below or equal to 0.1, whereas the benefit of including an interim analysis is rather small for higher α-levels. Including an interim analysis for efficacy yields almost no additional gain. Series based on three-arm trials are associated with a systematic improvement in terms of survival gain and risk control as compared to series of two-arm trials.

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From Laboratories to Collaboratories: A New Organizational Form for Scientific Collaboration

Psychological Science ◽

10.1111/j.1467-9280.1997.tb00540.x ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 28-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 115

Author(s):

Thomas A. Finholt ◽

Gary M. Olson

Keyword(s):

Geographical Location ◽

Scientific Work ◽

Joint Work ◽

Physical Sciences ◽

Scarce Resources ◽

The Status ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Conducting Research ◽

The Impact ◽

Participation In Research

This article explores the potential impact of collaboratories on psychology. A collaboratory is a computer-supported system that allows scientists to work with each other, facilities, and databases without regard to geographical location The impact of collaboratories is discussed in terms of changes in the organization and practice of scientific work as this work moves from physical to virtual settings Examination of prototype collaboratories in the physical sciences shows that use of collaboratories produces changes through improved access to scarce resources, support for joint work among distant colleagues, and opportunities for broader participation in research by students Similar results in psychology are predicted if psychologists exploit collaboratories' capabilities to design new ways of conducting research, rather than adopting collaboratory technology as an extension of the status quo.

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Change in Service Provision Networks: The Case of Animal Welfare Services

State and Local Government Review ◽

10.1177/0160323x211009285 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 0160323X2110092

Author(s):

Laura A. Reese ◽

Xiaomeng Li

Keyword(s):

Service Provision ◽

Survey Design ◽

Participant Observation ◽

Local Level ◽

Major Change ◽

Network Evolution ◽

Political Factors ◽

Before And After ◽

Organizational Ties ◽

The Impact

This research focuses on change within informal service provision networks, specifically examining the impact that changes within a key organization can have on the larger network. Employing a before and after survey design with a treatment at the midpoint and participant observation, it asks: What is the impact of a major change within one organization on the larger external network? What is the nature of the organizational ties? and, How do political factors exogenous to the network impact the network evolution process? The findings suggest that internal change within a focal actor can have ripple effects throughout the network increasing density. Public service provision at the local level can be enhanced through an increase in partnerships between the public and nonprofit sectors. However, network evolution can be limited by the larger political environment and lack of a coordinating role on the part of local government.

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Are e-learning Webinars the future of medical education? An exploratory study of a disruptive innovation in the COVID-19 era

Cardiology in the Young ◽

10.1017/s1047951120004503 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Colin J. McMahon ◽

Justin T. Tretter ◽

Theresa Faulkner ◽

R. Krishna Kumar ◽

Andrew N. Redington ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Deep Learning ◽

Carbon Footprint ◽

Quantitative Research ◽

Survey Design ◽

Hybrid Approach ◽

Disruptive Innovation ◽

Cross Sectional Survey ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

E Learning ◽

The Impact

Abstract Objective: This study investigated the impact of the Webinar on deep human learning of CHD. Materials and methods: This cross-sectional survey design study used an open and closed-ended questionnaire to assess the impact of the Webinar on deep learning of topical areas within the management of the post-operative tetralogy of Fallot patients. This was a quantitative research methodology using descriptive statistical analyses with a sequential explanatory design. Results: One thousand-three-hundred and seventy-four participants from 100 countries on 6 continents joined the Webinar, 557 (40%) of whom completed the questionnaire. Over 70% of participants reported that they “agreed” or “strongly agreed” that the Webinar format promoted deep learning for each of the topics compared to other standard learning methods (textbook and journal learning). Two-thirds expressed a preference for attending a Webinar rather than an international conference. Over 80% of participants highlighted significant barriers to attending conferences including cost (79%), distance to travel (49%), time commitment (51%), and family commitments (35%). Strengths of the Webinar included expertise, concise high-quality presentations often discussing contentious issues, and the platform quality. The main weakness was a limited time for questions. Just over 53% expressed a concern for the carbon footprint involved in attending conferences and preferred to attend a Webinar. Conclusion: E-learning Webinars represent a disruptive innovation, which promotes deep learning, greater multidisciplinary participation, and greater attendee satisfaction with fewer barriers to participation. Although Webinars will never fully replace conferences, a hybrid approach may reduce the need for conferencing, reduce carbon footprint. and promote a “sustainable academia”.

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Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043863 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. e043863

Author(s):

Jingyuan Wang ◽

Ke Tang ◽

Kai Feng ◽

Xin Lin ◽

Weifeng Lv ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Relative Humidity ◽

Human Mobility ◽

The United States ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

The Usa ◽

Higher Temperature ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact

ObjectivesWe aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.SettingWe use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.ParticipantsA total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.Primary outcome measuresRegression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).ResultsStatistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.ConclusionsHigher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (−0.0395 to −0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (−0.0311 to −0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (−0.0108 to −0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (−0.0150 to −0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

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Effective Demand Forecasting in Health Supply Chains: Emerging Trend, Enablers, and Blockers

Logistics ◽

10.3390/logistics5010012 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 12

Author(s):

Lakshmy Subramanian

Keyword(s):

Supply Chains ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

Weak Links ◽

Key Factors ◽

Scarce Resources ◽

Weakest Link ◽

Emerging Trends ◽

A Chain ◽

Health Commodities ◽

The Impact

Health supply chains aim to improve access to healthcare, and this can be attained only when health commodities appropriate to the health needs of the global population are developed, manufactured, and made available when and where needed. The weak links in the health supply chains are hindering the access of essential healthcare resulting in inefficient use of scarce resources and loss of lives. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and demand forecasting is one of the weakest links of health supply chains. Also, many of the existing bottlenecks in supply chains and health systems impede the accurate forecasting of demand, and without the ability to forecast demand with certainty, the stakeholders cannot plan and make commitments for the future. Forecasts are an important feeder for budgeting and logistics planning. Under this backdrop, the study examines how improved forecasting can lead to better short-term and long-term access to health commodities and outlines market-related risks. It explores further how incentives are misaligned creating an uneven distribution of risks, leading to the inability to match demand and supply. For this purpose, a systematic literature review was performed, analyzing 71 articles from a descriptive and content approach. Findings indicate the emerging trends in global health and the consequences of inaccurate demand forecasting for health supply chains. The content analysis identifies key factors that can pose a varying degree of risks for the health supply chain stakeholders. The study highlights how the key factors emerge as enablers and blockers, depending on the impact on the overall health supply chains. The study also provides recommendations for actions for reducing these risks. Consequently, limitations of this work are presented, and opportunities are identified for future lines of research. Finally, the conclusion confirms that by adopting a combination of approaches, stakeholders can ensure better information sharing, identify avenues of diversifying risks, and understand the implications.

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Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BMC Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Bimandra A. Djaafara ◽

Charles Whittaker ◽

Oliver J. Watson ◽

Robert Verity ◽

Nicholas F. Brazeau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Rural Areas ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Control Measures ◽

Additional Insight ◽

Short Term ◽

If Current ◽

Vaccine Impact ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Insight Into

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

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Differential impact of on-site or telepharmacy in the intensive care unit: a controlled before–after study

International Journal for Quality in Health Care ◽

10.1093/intqhc/mzab011 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 33 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Joao Gabriel Rosa Ramos ◽

Sandra Cristina Hernandes ◽

Talita Teles Teixeira Pereira ◽

Shana Oliveira ◽

Denis de Melo Soares ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Intensive Care Unit ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Phase 1 ◽

Phase 2 ◽

Differential Impact ◽

Scarce Resources ◽

Clinical Pharmacists ◽

Versus Phase ◽

Quasi Experimental ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Clinical pharmacists have an important role in the intensive care unit (ICU) team but are scarce resources. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of on-site pharmacists on medical prescriptions in the ICU. Methods This is a retrospective, quasi-experimental, controlled before-after study in two ICUs. Interventions by pharmacists were evaluated in phase 1 (February to November 2016) and phase 2 (February to May 2017) in ICU A (intervention) and ICU B (control). In phase 1, both ICUs had a telepharmacy service in which medical prescriptions were evaluated and interventions were made remotely. In phase 2, an on-site pharmacist was implemented in ICU A, but not in ICU B. We compared the number of interventions that were accepted in phase 1 versus phase 2. Results During the study period, 8797/9603 (91.6%) prescriptions were evaluated, and 935 (10.6%) needed intervention. In phase 2, there was an increase in the proportion of interventions that were accepted by the physician in comparison to phase 1 (93.9% versus 76.8%, P < 0.001) in ICU A, but there was no change in ICU B (75.2% versus 73.9%, P = 0.845). Conclusion An on-site pharmacist in the ICU was associated with an increase in the proportion of interventions that were accepted by physicians.

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