The Effect of Armed Conflict on Savings Rates: International Evidence from 1980 to 2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Torres-Garcia ◽  
Martin Vanegas-Arias ◽  
Laura Builes-Aristizabal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Intertemporal Preferences ◽  
Conflict Duration ◽  
Saving Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Savings Rates

AbstractEconomic growth theory highlights the importance of saving rates to explain the long-run economic performance of economies. While economic theory has provided an analytical and empirical framework to understand the determinants of saving rates, one of the limitations is that it excludes from the analysis the potential effects of armed conflict and political instability, although it has been demonstrated that such situations can affect intertemporal preferences in terms of consumption and saving. Using a sample of 55 countries with/without conflict from 1980 to 2015, we analyze whether aggregate savings rates are negatively correlated with the existence, intensity, and duration of an armed conflict. The results indicate that countries that have suffered some type of conflict exhibit a saving rate 2.7% lower on average than the rate exhibited by countries that have not suffered such conflict. Additionally, if there is a high-intensity conflict, the saving rates decreases 2.5% more relative to countries that experience low-intensity conflict. Finally, we found a nonlinear relationship between saving rates and conflict duration, suggesting that the impact of conflict on savings decreases with time. These results extend the literature on the effects of armed conflicts on the long-run economic growth.

scholarly journals VARIETY, COMPETITION, AND POPULATION IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Alberto Bucci ◽  
Lorenzo Carbonari ◽  
Giovanni Trovato
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Finite Mixture Model ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

We provide aggregate macroeconomic evidence on how, in the long run, a diverse degree of complexity in production may affect not only the rate of economic growth, but also the correlation between the latter, population growth and the monopolistic (intermediate) markups. For a sample of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, we find that the impact of population change on economic growth is slightly positive. According to our theoretical model, this implies that the losses due to more complexity in production are lower than the corresponding specialization gains. Using a finite mixture model, we also classify the countries in the sample and verify for each cluster the impact that the population growth rate and the intermediate sector’s markups exert on the 5-year average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.

scholarly journals Economic Development, CO2 Emissions and Energy Use Nexus-Evidence from the Danube Region Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.

Empirical Literature on Economic Growth, 1991–2020: Uncovering Extant Gaps and Avenues for Future Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 097491012110616
Author(s):  
Natalia I. Doré ◽  
Aurora A. C. Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Scientific Attention ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth ◽  
Latin American And Caribbean

The factors required to achieve sustainable economic growth in a country are debated for decades, and empirical research in this regard continues to grow. Given the relevance of the topic and the absence of a comprehensive, systematic literature review, we used bibliometric techniques to examine and document several aspects in the empirical literature related to growth, from 1991 to 2020. Five main results are worth highlighting: (a) the share of empirical articles on economic growth show a clear upward trend; (b) among all the groups of countries considered, the emerging economies (EEs) have received the most scientific attention; (c) the economic growth processes of the Latin American and Caribbean EEs have observed negligible scientific attention; (d) the very long-run studies comprise a residual share among the empirical literature on growth; (e) the extant empirical studies on economic growth have addressed mainly the impact of “macroeconomic conditions.” Our findings suggest there is a need to redirect the empirical growth agenda, so as to encourage more scientific attention devoted to the analysis of key determinants of economic growth in the very long run. There should also be increased scrutiny of the processes of economic growth in Latin American and Caribbean EEs

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Impacto das exportações de alta tecnologia no crescimento econômico: evidências empíricas do Paquistão

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Least Square ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Robust Standard Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Data Source ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this study is to explore the impact of high tech exports on economic growth of Pakistan. To examine this relationship, data are collected from World Bank database, State Bank of Pakistan data source and Statistical Bureau of Pakistan. Time span of study is consisting of 20 years from 1995 to 2014. By using ordinary least square (OLS) with robust standard error, results confirm that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of high tech exports on economic growth. Although Pakistan is an agriculture country and its economic growth is largely depend upon farming, but for long run economic growth, Pakistan has to increase its high tech exports.

scholarly journals Armed conflicts as a source of new formations in the Russian language (on material of the armed conflict in Donbass)

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Word Formation ◽  
Russian Language ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
The South ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Russian Language

The vocabulary of a language is a variable quantity, it is constantly changing, responding to the needs of life and reflecting its new realities. The events taking place in the South-East of Ukraine since March 2014 have significantly changed the usual picture of the world of the parties involved in this conflict, led to a new interpretation of reality, the emergence of new mental constructs, objectified in the language using a number of lexical innovations, most of which fall under the definition of „hate speech”. The purpose of this article is to try to examine the impact of the armed conflict in the South-East of Ukraine on the emergence of lexical innovations in the Russian language, to identify ways of forming new units and their main thematic clusters. The material for the work was neoplasms recorded in electronic Russian and Russian-speaking Ukrainian mass media, as well as selected from social networks and videos. The analysis showed that in the context of the armed conflict in the South-East of Ukraine, the characteristic manifestations of „hate speech” are mainly numerous new categories-labels with a pronounced conflict potential. The priority in this regard is offensive and derogatory nominations of representatives of the opposite camp, taking into account their worldview / ideological, national / ethnic, territorial / regional characteristics. The military jargon has also undergone a significant update, incorporating not only the reactualized slangisms of the era of the Afghan campaign of 1979-89, but also lexical innovations caused by the military and political realities of the current armed conflict in the Donbas. Neologisms are formed in accordance with the existing methods in the Russian language (word formation, semantic derivation, borrowing). At the same time, non-standard word-forming techniques are also used (language play, homophony, etc.).

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Friday Osaru Ovenseri Ogbomo ◽  
Precious Imuwahen Ajoonu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examined the impact of Exchange Rate Management on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The study was set to gauge how the management of exchange rate in Nigeria has impacted the economy. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in its analysis. Co-integration and Error Correction Techniques were used to establish the Short-run and Long-run relationships between economic growth and other relevant economic indicators. The result revealed that exchange rate management proxy by various exchange rates regimes in Nigeria was not germane to economic growth. Rather, government expenditure, inflation rate, money supply and foreign direct investment significantly impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian economy must diversify her export base to create room for more inflow of foreign exchange.  

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals The impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Abubakar Aminu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of cointegration covering the period of 25 years from 1995 to 2019. The findings reveal that education tax and investment in human capital have positive and significant effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy over the sampled period. The paper recommends that in order to boost the economy, Nigeria would need to, among other policy frameworks, provide a suitable environment for ensuring macro-economic stability through effective utilization of income from education tax that will encourage increased investment in human capital in the public sector. In addition to income from education tax, for effective and speedy economic growth and development in Nigeria, the government, beneficiaries (students/parents), employers of labor and other stakeholders in the society should share the responsibility for financing primary, secondary and tertiary education, so as to provide a solid foundation for human capital development. However, as revealed in this paper, the contribution of education tax and investment in human capital is most likely to be realized over a long-run period than in the short term. Keywords: Education Tax; Investment; Human capital; Economic growth

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