Iparági sérülékenység a pandémia tükrében
Összefoglaló. Jelen tanulmányban a termelési folyamatokat, valamint statisztikai adatokat elemezve azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a pandémia során milyen hatások érték az inputokat, magát a termelést, az outputokat, illetve hogyan változtak meg olyan versenyprioritási tényezők, mint az idő, a minőség vagy a rugalmasság. Mivel a rövidebb, a kevésbé komplex és rugalmasabb értékláncok válságállóbbnak tűnnek, ez felgyorsíthatja az ellátási láncok regionalizációját, amit tovább fokoz, hogy a termelőszektor gyors visszarendeződésével szemben a szolgáltató ágazatoknak elhúzódó kilábalással kell szembenézniük. Ezért azt is megvizsgáltuk, hogy az egyes országok ellenálló képessége függ-e a termelő szektor méretétől. Eredményeink alapján, ahol nagyobb az ipar aránya, ott gyorsabban képes a gazdaság talpra állni, ami újabb lökést adhat a fejlett államok iparfejlesztési törekvéseinek. Summary. The coronavirus epidemic posed challenges to all. However, with proper discipline, increased efficiency and adaptability, companies and economies can emerge stronger from this situation. In this study, we examine vulnerability of industries along three dimensions according to the general model of production complemented by aggregate statistics from Eurostat. In terms of procurement, shorter value chains seem more resilient than complex and long supply chains. Supplier risks may be also mitigated by increasing the number of suppliers of critical inputs. The costs and risks of transporting goods are also increasing. 90% of industrial products are involved in international trade, mostly transported through maritime shipping that faces significant increase in tariffs, and the difficulty of replacing crews could lead to further disruptions to the operation of maritime routes. Thus, it is not surprising that the pandemic has increased the issue of supply chain flexibility and simplification, and has drawn attention to the importance of inventories and input replacement. Companies may consider to diversify production sites or even reshore or nearshore their production. The rate of recovery varies in each sector: in services requiring a personal presence, such as tourism, the sudden economic downturn is followed by a slow growth, contrary to the rapid rebound of industrial production. Therefore, countries with significant manufacturing will witness V-shaped recovery, while higher reliance on services is characterized by slower and longer L-shaped scenario. Thus, the pandemic also pointed out that industrial production is key in a national economy: besides that industrial innovations increase productivity (and living standards) and manufacturing functions also have a significant multiplier effect on the service sector, manufacturing also has significant resistance against a pandemic. This could give a further push to the ongoing industrial development programs of developed economies such as Germany, the United States, or the European Union. At the same time, services that are able to move online show no decline, while service requiring a personal presence may struggle in the long run. Overall, structural changes are inevitable and companies have to adapt to the novel consuming and working preferences.