scholarly journals DESEMPENHO DE MÉTODOS NA ESTIMATIVA DE EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA PARA O ESTADO DA PARAÍBA, BRASIL

Irriga ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geffson De Figueredo Dantas ◽  
Vinicius Mendes Rodrigues de Oliveira ◽  
Alexandre Barcellos Dalri ◽  
Luiz Fabiano Palaretti ◽  
Miqueias Gomes dos Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Standard Method ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Satisfactory Performance ◽  
Time Period ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Level Of Agreement

DESEMPENHO DE MÉTODOS NA ESTIMATIVA DE EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA PARA O ESTADO DA PARAÍBA, BRASIL  GEFFSON DE FIGUEREDO DANTAS1; VINICIUS MENDES RODRIGUES DE OLIVEIRA2; ALEXANDRE BARCELLOS DALRI3; LUIZ FABIANO PALARETTI3; MIQUEIAS GOMES DOS SANTOS4 E ROGÉRIO TEXEIRA DE FARIA3 1 Licenciado em Ciências Agrárias, Doutorando em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo), Departamento de Engenharia Rural, FCAV-Unesp/ Jaboticabal, SP, [email protected] Engº Agrônomo, Doutorando em Engenharia Agrícola, Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, UFV/Viçosa, MG, [email protected] Engº Agrícola, Prof. Doutor, Departamento de Engenharia Rural, FCAV-Unesp/Jaboticabal, SP, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Engº Agrônomo, Doutorando em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo), Departamento de Engenharia Rural, FCAV-Unesp/Jaboticabal, SP, [email protected]  1 RESUMO O métodos padrão de estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência (ET0) FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) emprega variáveis meteorológicas as quais nem sempre estão disponíveis à maioria dos produtores rurais. Assim, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar seu desempenho e aferir se necessário, para as condições da Paraíba, diferentes métodos para a estimativa diária de ET0, comparando-os com o método padrão FAO Penman-Monteith. Utilizou-se uma série histórica de 17 anos de dados meteorológicos do INMET de quatro cidades do Estado da Paraíba. Os métodos avaliados foram os de Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Blaney-Criddle (BC), Camargo (C) e Jensen-Haise (JH). Para análise comparativa entre o método PM e os outros métodos, foi realizada a análise de correlação e regressão linear e do coeficiente de determinação (R²). Para a exatidão dos métodos empíricos, foi realizada a análise para a determinação do índice de concordância (d) e do índice de desempenho (c). A ET0, obtida pelos quatro métodos empíricos obtiveram desempenho satisfatório, o método HS para a mesorregião do agreste não necessitou de ajustes, já os métodos JH, C e HS para as mesorregiões litoral, borborema e sertão necessitaram de ajuste para melhor acurácia em relação ao método padrão. Palavras-chave: calibração,  irrigação, Penman-Monteith  DANTAS, G. de F.; OLIVEIRA, V. M. R. de; DALRI, A. B.; PALARETTI, L. F.; SANTOS, M. G. dos; FARIA, R. T. dePERFORMANCE OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING ET0 IN PARAÍBA STATE, BRAZIL  2 ABSTRACT The standard method for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ET0), FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) employs meteorological variables which are not always available to most farmers. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate and benchmark their performance if necessary, to the conditions of Paraíba, different methods for daily ET0 were estimated by comparing them with the standard FAO Penman-Monteith method. We used a time period of 17 years of weather data INMET in four cities in the state of Paraíba. The methods evaluated were the Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Blaney-Criddle (BC), Camargo (C) and Jensen-Haise (JH). For comparative analysis between the PM method and other methods, correlation analysis and linear regression to determine the coefficients of the equation (Y = a + bx) and the coefficient of determination (R²) was performed. For accuracy of empirical methods, the analysis was performed to determine the level of agreement (d) and performance index (c). The estimation of reference evapotranspiration, obtained by four empirical for meso-Paraíba PB methods, achieved satisfactory performance, the HS method for the rough mesoregion needed no adjustments since the JH, C and HS methods for meso coast, borborema and hinterland need adjustment for better accuracy compared to the standard method. Keywords: calibration, irrigation, evapotranspiration

scholarly journals Assessment of empirical methods for estimation of reference evapotranspiration in the Brazilian Savannah

2019 ◽  
pp. 1094-1104
Author(s):  
Lucas da Costa Santos ◽  
Guilherme Henrique Terra Cruz ◽  
Frank Freire Capuchinho ◽  
Jeffersom Vieira José ◽  
Elton Fialho dos Reis
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Standard Method ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Reference Method ◽  
The State ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Empirical Methods

Evapotranspiration can be sufficiently estimated when meteorological data are available to implement robust models such as Penman-Monteith (PM). However, due to data scarcity, alternative approaches are necessary. In this context, this study aims to compare the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) obtained from the PM standard method with eight empirical equations to identify the simplest method that can be alternative to the reference method (Penman Monteith method) for ten places in state of Goiás (located in west-central Brazil, Brazilian Savanna). To estimate the ETo, air temperature and relative humidity air, wind speed, sunshine and solar radiation data, which were obtained from the data platform National Institute of Meteorology and the Meteorological and Hydrological System of the State of Goiás, were used. For comparison of empirical methods with PM standard method, we used the following statistical indicators: slope and intercept coefficients (β0 and β1) of regressions equations, the coefficient of determination (r²), Pearson's correlation (r), mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) concordance index refined (dr) and performance index (Pi). Our results indicated that the Turc method is the best option for the state of Goiás when meteorological data are not suffeciently available to use the standard PM method. On the other hand, the method of Romanenko did not present acceptable performance in nine of the ten studied localities. Therefore, its use is advised only in the municipality of the Itumbiara. Among evaluated methods the Hargreaves-Samani method is the best alternative, when there is only air temperature data.

scholarly journals Evaluation of empirical methods to estimate reference evapotranspiration in Uberaba, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 875-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovani L. de Melo ◽  
André L. T. Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Standard Method ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Simple Statistical Analysis ◽  
Climatic Elements

Evapotranspiration is the process of water loss of vegetated soil due to evaporation and transpiration, and it may be estimated by various empirical methods. This study had the objective to carry out the evaluation of the performance of the following methods: Blaney-Criddle, Jensen-Haise, Linacre, Solar Radiation, Hargreaves-Samani, Makkink, Thornthwaite, Camargo, Priestley-Taylor and Original Penman in the estimation of the potential evapotranspiration when compared to the Penman-Monteith standard method (FAO56) to the climatic conditions of Uberaba, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. A set of 21 years monthly data (1990 to 2010) was used, working with the climatic elements: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and insolation. The empirical methods to estimate reference evapotranspiration were compared with the standard method using linear regression, simple statistical analysis, Willmott agreement index (d) and performance index (c). The methods Makkink and Camargo showed the best performance, with "c" values of 0.75 and 0.66, respectively. The Hargreaves-Samani method presented a better linear relation with the standard method, with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.88.

scholarly journals COMPARAÇÃO ENTRE MÉTODOS DE ESTIMATIVA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA PARA O MUNICÍPIO DE PETROLINA, PE

Irriga ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Daniela Silva Santos ◽  
Marcello Henryque Costa de Souza ◽  
Regiane De Carvalho Bispo ◽  
Kevim Muniz Ventura ◽  
Luis Henrique Bassoi
Keyword(s):  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Arid Climate ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Test Field ◽  
Rating Method ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Semi Arid

COMPARAÇÃO ENTRE MÉTODOS DE ESTIMATIVA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA PARA O MUNICÍPIO DE PETROLINA, PE  ROBERTA DANIELA DA SILVA SANTOS1; MARCELLO HENRYQUE COSTA DE SOUZA1; REGIANE DE CARVALHO BISPO1; KEVIM MUNIZ VENTURA1 E LUÍS HENRIQUE BASSOI2 1Programa de Pós-Graduação em Irrigação e Drenagem, Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”- UNESP/FCA, Rua Dr. José Barbosa de Barros, 1780, Botucatu, SP, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Embrapa Instrumentação, São Carlos, SP, [email protected]  1 RESUMO O conhecimento da evapotranspiração é vital na determinação das necessidades hídricas de uma cultura. Diante disso, o objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar o desempenho de sete métodos de estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência em relação ao método de Penman-Monteith, adotado como padrão, para o município de Petrolina, PE. Foram utilizados dados climáticos diários de 2004 a 2015, para estimar da ET0, obtidos na estação meteorológica automática do Campo Experimental de Bebedouro da Embrapa Semiárido, Petrolina, PE. Os indicadores estatísticos utilizados na avaliação foram: coeficiente de determinação (r²); coeficiente de correlação (r); índice de concordância (d) e índice de desempenho (c). Os valores do r² mostraram que o método de estimativa que melhor se ajustou ao método de Penman-Monteith foi o de Ivanov (0,73); seguido pelos métodos de Jensen-Haise (0,64); Makkink e Priestley-Taylor (0,63); Villa Nova (0,62); Hargreaves e Samani (0,53) e Hamon (0,45). No entanto, com relação ao do índice “c”, Hamon foi classificado com “péssimo”; Makkink como “mau”; Hargreaves e Samani e Villa Nova como “sofrível”; Ivanov e Priestley-Taylor como “mediano”; e Jensen-Haise como “bom”. Esse último método foi considerado como o de melhor classificação de desempenho. Palavras-chave: Penman-Monteith, correlação, semiárido.  SANTOS, R. D. S.; SOUZA, M. H. C.; BISPO, R. de C.; VENTURA, K. M.; BASSOI, L. H.METHOD-COMPARISON STUDY TO ESTIMATE THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN PETROLINA, PE  2 ABSTRACT The knowledge on evapotranspiration is vital in determining the water requirements of a crop. Therefore, this paper aims to compare the performance of seven of estimation methods for the reference evapotranspiration in relation to the Penman-Monteith method, adopted as standard, for the municipality of Petrolina, state of Pernambuco, Brazil. We used daily climatic data from 2004 to 2015 to estimate the ET0 coefficient, obtained in the automatic weather station of the Test Field in Bebedouro, Embrapa in the Semi-arid climate. The statistical indicators used in the evaluation were: coefficient of determination (r²), correlation coefficient (r), agreement index (d) and performance index (c). The r2 values showed that the estimation method that best fitted to the Penman-Monteith method was Ivanov's (0.73), followed by Jensen-Haise (0.64), Makkink and Priestley-Taylor (0.63), Villa Nova (0.62), Hargreaves and Samani (0.53) and Hamon (0.45) methods. However, in relation to the index "c", Hamon was classified as "very poor"; Makkink as "poor"; Hargreaves and Samani and Villa Nova as "tolerable"; Ivanov and Priestley-Taylor as "medium"; and Jensen-Haise as "good". The last one was considered as the best performance rating method. Keywords: Penman-Monteith, correlation, semi-arid climate.

scholarly journals Heuristic methods applied in reference evapotranspiration modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 314-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Althoff ◽  
Helizani Couto Bazame ◽  
Roberto Filgueiras ◽  
Santos Henrique Brant Dias
Keyword(s):  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Computational Techniques ◽  
Heuristic Methods ◽  
Scarce Data

ABSTRACT The importance of the precise estimation of evapotranspiration is directly related to sustainable water usage. Since agriculture represents 70% of Brazil’s water consumption, adequate and efficient application of water may reduce the conflicts over the use of water among the multiple users. Considering the importance of accurate estimation of evapotranspiration, the objective of the present study was to model and compare the reference evapotranspiration from different heuristic methodologies. The standard Penman-Monteith method was used as reference for evapotranspiration, however, to evaluate the heuristic methodologies with scarce data, two widely known methods had their performances assessed in relation to Penman-Monteith. The methods used to estimate evapotranspiration from scarce data were Priestley-Taylor and Thornthwaite. The computational techniques Stepwise Regression (SWR), Random Forest (RF), Cubist (CB), Bayesian Regularized Neural Network (BRNN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were used to estimate evapotranspiration with scarce and full meteorological data. The results show the robustness of the heuristic methods in the prediction of the evapotranspiration. The performance criteria of machine learning methods for full weather data varied from 0.14 to 0.22 mm d-1 for mean absolute error (MAE), from 0.21 to 0.29 mm d-1 for root mean squared error (RMSE) and from 0.95 to 0.99 coefficient of determination (r²). The computational techniques proved superior performance to established methods in literature, even in scenarios of scarce variables. The BRNN presented the best performance overall.

scholarly journals EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA EM FUNÇÃO DOS EXTREMOS DA TEMPERATURA DO AR NO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO

Irriga ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anderson Amorim Rocha Santos ◽  
Gustavo Bastos Lyra ◽  
Guilherme Bastos Lyra ◽  
Evaldo Paiva Lima ◽  
José Leonaldo De Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
The State ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
And Performance ◽  
E Mail

EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA EM FUNÇÃO DOS EXTREMOS DA TEMPERATURA DO AR NO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO  ANDERSON AMORIM ROCHA SANTOS1; GUSTAVO BASTOS LYRA2; GUILHERME BASTOS LYRA3; EVALDO PAIVA LIMA4; JOSÉ LEONALDO DE SOUZA5 E RAFAEL COLL DELGADO2 1 Engenheiro Agrônomo, Mestre em Engenharia de Biossistemas, Escola de Engenharia, Universidade Federal Fluminense – UFF, Campus da Praia Vermelha, 24210-240, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected] Meteorologistas, Professores Doutores do Departamento de Ciências Ambientais, Instituto de Florestas, Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro – UFRRJ, Campus UFRRJ, 23897-000, Seropédica, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] Engenheiro Agrônomo, Professor Doutor do Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal de Alagoas – UFAL, BR-104, 57100-000, Rio Largo, Alagoas, Brasil, e-mail:[email protected]  4 Meteorologista, Pesquisador do Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Solos, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária – EMBRAPA, Rua Jardim Botânico 1024, 22460-000, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected] Meteorologista, Professor Doutor do Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal de Alagoas – UFAL, BR-104, 57100-000, Rio Largo, Alagoas, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected]  1 RESUMO A aplicação do método de Penman-Monteith FAO56 (PM-FAO56) para estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) requer observações de diversos elementos meteorológicos. A maior parte das estações meteorológicas não realiza medidas de todos os elementos, o que restringe a aplicação do PM-FAO56. O objetivo foi avaliar o desempenho dos métodos empíricos de Thornthwaite, Camargo, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise e Makkink na estimativa de ETo em função dos extremos de temperatura do ar no estado do Rio de Janeiro (RJ). Foram utilizadas séries meteorológicas entre oito e 34 anos de 10 estações convencionais pertencentes ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia localizadas no RJ. As estimativas decendiais e mensais de ETo pelos métodos empíricos foram comparadas com ETo determinada por PM-FAO56 (padrão) para se avaliar a exatidão (Erro Padrão de Estimativa - EPE e Índice de Willmott - d), precisão (coeficiente de determinação - R²) e o desempenho (índice c de Camargo e Sentelhas) dos métodos. Independente da escala de tempo avaliada, o método de Makkink mostrou estimativas com maior exatidão (d > 0,82 e EPE < 0,68 mm d-1), precisão (R² > 0,88) e desempenho (índice c > 0,85) nas estações caracterizadas com clima úmido, subúmido, subúmido seco com pequeno excedente hídrico. Nas demais estações, clima subúmido seco com excedente nulo e semiárido, o método de Hargreaves-Samani teve melhor desempenho (índice c > 0,85). Os métodos de Thornthwaite e Camargo apresentaram estimativas com exatidão (d > 0,90 e EPE < 0,72 mm d-1) e desempenho (índice c > 0,76) entre os melhores e podem ser usados para estimativa de ETo no RJ. As menores exatidões (d < 0,73 e EPE > 1,38 mm d-1) e desempenhos (0,51 < índice c < 0,75) das estimativas foram proporcionadas por Jensen-Haise para todas as estações e escalas de tempo, não sendo recomendado sua aplicação no estado do RJ. Os métodos de Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise e Makkink devem ser ajustados às condições climáticas do RJ. Palavras-Chave: Penman-Monteith, radiação solar global, amplitude térmica   SANTOS, A. A. R.; LYRA, G.B.; LYRA, G.B.; LIMA, E. P.; SOUZA, J. L.; DELGADO, R. C.ESTIMATES OF THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION USING AIR TEMPERATURE EXTREMES IN THE STATE OF THE RIO DE JANEIRO, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL 2 ABSTRACT The use of the Penman-Monteith FAO56 method (PM-FAO 56) to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ETo) requires several weather elements. However, most weather stations don’t measure all the elements, which restricts the application of PM-FAO 56. The aim of this article was to evaluate the performance of five empirical methods (Thornthwaite, Camargo, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise and Makkink) to estimate ETo using air temperature extremes in the state of the Rio de Janeiro (RJ). Times series of weather elements between eight and 34 years from 10 conventional stations of the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology located in RJ were used. The ten-day and monthly estimates of ETo by empirical methods were compared to ETo determined by PM-FAO 56 (default) to evaluate the accuracy (Standard Error of the Estimate - SEE and Willmott index - d), precision (coefficient of determination - R²) and performance (Camargo and Sentelhas – c Index) of the methods. Independent of the time scale, the Makkink method showed the highest accuracies (d > 0.82 and SEE < 0.68 mm d-1), precision (R² > 0.88) and performance (c Index > 0.85) on the stations, characterized with humid, sub-humid, dry sub-humid with small water surplus. For the other stations, semiarid and dry sub-humid climate with no surplus, the Hargreaves-Samani method had the best performance (c Index > 0.85). The Thornthwaite and Camargo methods presented accuracy (d > 0.90 and SEE < 0.72 mm d-1) and performance (Index c > 0.76) between the top and can be used to estimate ETo in RJ. For all stations and time scales, the worst accuracies (d < 0.73 and SEE > 1.38 mm d-1) and performance (0.51 < Index c < 0.75) estimates were provided by the Jensen-Haise method, so it is not recommended its application in RJ state. The Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise and Makkink methods should be fitted to the climatic conditions of RJ. Keywords: Penman-Monteith, solar global radiation, temperature amplitude

scholarly journals Models for Estimating Reference Evapotranspiration in Different Periods in Rio Verde, Goiás, Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
P. A. L. de Castro ◽  
G. O. Santos ◽  
R. G. Diniz
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Standard Method ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Brazilian Cerrado ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
Annual Period ◽  
Agriculture Water

The water management in irrigated agriculture begins determining the need of water for the culture. Therefore, it was intended to evaluate the performance of the models of estimation reference of evapotranspiration (ETo) with regard to the method Penman-Monteith (PM), standard method, for Brazilian Cerrado Region (tropical grassland/savannah). The climate elements were obtained from the conventional weather station of Rio Verde from January/1972 to December/2016. It was compared the performance of the daily average ETo, during the dry, rainy and annual periods, by the PM method with regard to another 26 methods. Through the coefficient of determination, it was verified the methods of Turc (T) and Radiation-Temperature (RT) approached more to the PM, at any time of the year, being able to replace the standard method. The ETo average in the annual period was 3.8 mm day-1, for the dry period due to the smallest amount of solar radiation, the period submitted lower levels of ETo. The other models in which were used fewer amounts of climate data, they overestimated or underestimated the PM model by up to 57.9% and 60.7% respectively. With the management of water in agriculture, water availability can be increased in the hydric bodies, characterizing it as a tool for water management with the rational use of water resources.

THE USE OF HISTORICAL DATA IN ACCOUNTING RESEARCH: THE CASE OF THE AMERICAN SUGAR REFINING COMPANY

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Bricker ◽  
Kevin Brown
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
A Value ◽  
Time Period ◽  
And Performance

In 1908, the American Sugar Refining Company (ASR) reversed its long-held policy of secrecy as to its financial condition and performance. Prior work, applying contemporary capital market methods to ASR security price data of that period, has suggested a value to ASR shareholders of this policy reversal. This paper examines the historical record of that time and presents additional evidence on this matter, particularly in terms of identifying potentially confounding events occurring during the period under study. The results of this analysis suggest a difficulty in attributing observed abnormal returns to ASR's secrecy policy reversal on the basis of the results obtained from applying capital markets methods. This analysis is useful for scholars interested in applying modern capital market methods to historical data. It highlights the significance of the possible effects of contemporaneous historical events, focuses attention on the importance of a deep understanding of the historical period studied, and suggests a value in combining historical and empirical-markets methods to gain a richer understanding of the events and conditions in the time period under study.

scholarly journals Modeling Population Spatial-Temporal Distribution Using Taxis Origin and Destination Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3727
Author(s):  
Fatema Rahimi ◽  
Abolghasem Sadeghi-Niaraki ◽  
Mostafa Ghodousi ◽  
Soo-Mi Choi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Temporal Modeling ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Proposed Model

During dangerous circumstances, knowledge about population distribution is essential for urban infrastructure architecture, policy-making, and urban planning with the best Spatial-temporal resolution. The spatial-temporal modeling of the population distribution of the case study was investigated in the present study. In this regard, the number of generated trips and absorbed trips using the taxis pick-up and drop-off location data was calculated first, and the census population was then allocated to each neighborhood. Finally, the Spatial-temporal distribution of the population was calculated using the developed model. In order to evaluate the model, a regression analysis between the census population and the predicted population for the time period between 21:00 to 23:00 was used. Based on the calculation of the number of generated and the absorbed trips, it showed a different spatial distribution for different hours in one day. The spatial pattern of the population distribution during the day was different from the population distribution during the night. The coefficient of determination of the regression analysis for the model (R2) was 0.9998, and the mean squared error was 10.78. The regression analysis showed that the model works well for the nighttime population at the neighborhood level, so the proposed model will be suitable for the day time population.

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