scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

scholarly journals Integrated Impact Assessment for Sustainable Hydropower Planning in the Vjosa Catchment (Greece, Albania)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1514
Author(s):  
Rebecca Peters ◽  
Jürgen Berlekamp ◽  
Ana Lucía ◽  
Vittoria Stefani ◽  
Klement Tockner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Hydropower Plants ◽  
Hydropower Planning

Mitigating climate change, while human population and economy are growing globally, requires a bold shift to renewable energy sources. Among renewables, hydropower is currently the most economic and efficient technique. However, due to a lack of impact assessments at the catchment scale in the planning process, the construction of hydropower plants (HPP) may have unexpected ecological, socioeconomic, and political ramifications in the short and in the long term. The Vjosa River, draining parts of Northern Greece and Albania, is one of the few predominantly free-flowing rivers left in Europe; at the same time its catchment is identified an important resource for future hydropower development. While current hydropower plants are located along tributaries, planned HPP would highly impact the free-flowing main stem. Taking the Vjosa catchment as a case study, the aim of this study was to develop a transferable impact assessment that ranks potential hydropower sites according to their projected impacts on a catchment scale. Therefore, we integrated established ecological, social, and economic indicators for all HPP planned in the river catchment, while considering their capacity, and developed a ranking method based on impact categories. For the Vjosa catchment, ten hydropower sites were ranked as very harmful to the environment as well as to society. A sensitivity analysis revealed that this ranking is dependent upon the selection of indicators. Small HPP showed higher cumulative impacts than large HPP, when normalized to capacity. This study empowers decision-makers to compare both the ranked impacts and the generated energy of planned dam projects at the catchment scale.

Drifting the goals archetype: a systemic study

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Current Reality

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.

scholarly journals Alternatives to groundwater abstraction as a measure to stop land subsidence: a case study of Semarang, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 01003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley Beek ◽  
Bart Letitre ◽  
H. Hadiyanto ◽  
S. Sudarno
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Treatment Services

The Water as Leverage project aims to lay a blueprint for urban coastal areas around the world that are facing a variety of water-related issues. The blueprint is based upon three real case studies in Bangladesh, India and Indonesia. The case of Indonesia focuses on Semarang, a city that faces issues like flooding, increased water demand, and a lack of wastewater treatment. In this report I summarise the different techniques available to tackling these issues. Along with this I provide a cost-benefit analysis to support decision makers. For a short term it is recommended to produce industrial water from (polluted) surface water as a means to offer an alternative to groundwater abstraction. On a long term it is recommended to install additional wastewater and drinking water treatment services to facilitate better hygiene and a higher quality of life.

scholarly journals Low-cost monitoring buoys network tracking biogeochemical changes in lakes and marine environments – a regional case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 90 (10) ◽  
pp. 1631-1646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro J. Vitale ◽  
Gerardo M.E. Perillo ◽  
Sibila A. Genchi ◽  
Andrés H. Arias ◽  
María Cintia Piccolo
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Shallow Waters ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Temperate Region ◽  
Coastal Marine ◽  
The Cost

AbstractLakes, rivers, estuaries and ocean waters control many important natural functions at the regional-global level. Hence, integrative and frequent long-term water monitoring is required globally. This paper describes the main features and innovations of a low-cost monitoring buoys network (MBN) deployed in a temperate region of Argentina. The MBN was designed to record extended time series at high-frequency, which is of great value for the scientific community, as well as for decision-makers. In addition, two innovative designs belonging to two versions of moored buoys (i.e. shallow waters and coastal marine waters) were presented. It was shown that the cost of either of two versions of the buoy is low, which can be considered as the main advantage.

Influential Factors in IT Outsourcing Relationship in a Swedish Municipality

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreea Daniela Pana Talpeanu ◽  
Lazar Rusu
Keyword(s):  
Cost Efficiency ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Mutual Understanding ◽  
The Public ◽  
Is Research ◽  
Core Capabilities

Information Technology Outsourcing (ITO) has generated considerable interest within Information Systems (IS) research as a consequence of its benefits in terms of cost efficiency and freedom to focus on core capabilities. This study covers the area of ITO in the public sector, specifically, in Swedish Municipalities where ITO has become a mainstream strategy. The influential ITO factors of the post-contract stage of an ITO relationship are examined and debated in light of existent research literature. The research is based on a case study of a Swedish Municipality and a direct IT vendor. A thematic analysis brings light upon three new ITO influential factors which are: (1) mutual understanding and long-term engagement; (2) Multi-sourcing, and (3) Communication between Municipalities, together with other seven factors present in the research literature that have an influence on the ITO relationship. The findings of this study can support ITO decision-makers from Swedish municipalities in improving the ITO relationship between their organizations and IT vendors.

scholarly journals The future of Wallace region in Lombok: the pristine natural resource under climatic and anthropogenic threat

2021 ◽  
Vol 913 (1) ◽  
pp. 012049
Author(s):  
Mahrup ◽  
M Ma’shum ◽  
MH Idris ◽  
Fahrudin
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Natural Scene ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
The Future ◽  
World Class ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Wallace region is mostly comprised of the southeast archipelagoes of Indonesia, namely West and East Nusa Tenggara. Lombok is a west border of the Wallace line which biologically delineate the distinguished fauna and climate in the eastern Indonesia. However, the pristine natural resource is under climatic and anthropogenic threat. A case study by means of a Descriptive method was conducted to identify any contradictive use of natural resource leading to environmental degradation, as well as to study ruination impact of climate uncertainty. Long term satellite images of Lombok from 1980’s up to the latest date were traced to identify any changes in land cover, land use and settlement. Climate data were analyzed to find its trend and forecast its potential impact on the environment. Overall, the results showed that the pristine environments, namely forests, hillocks and cliffs, particularly in tourism destination sites had been accordingly overburdened by contradictive use of resources. Lack of law enforcements in environmental protection was a key point to be addressed as a major factor resulted in losses of the most valuable value of Lombok natural scene. In addition, manmade disaster is becoming more frequent with climate change commonly accused. In conclusion, the future of the natural resource in Lombok would not be merely relied on world class facilities of tourism industry, but on to what extend effort to naturally sustain the beauty of natural scene, stop degrading the lands and be responsible to protect environment in line with regional development.

scholarly journals Maintaining Effort and Interest despite Challenges during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Process Tracing Approach to a Teacher’s Grit during an Online L2 Course

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-60
Author(s):  
Majid Elahi Shirvan ◽  
Nigel Mantou Lou ◽  
Mojdeh Shahnama ◽  
Elham Yazdanmehr
Keyword(s):  
Online Teaching ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Online Course ◽  
Individual Factor ◽  
Self Evaluation ◽  
The Face ◽  
Teacher Effort ◽  
Cluster Analytic

Grit—the ability to maintain effort and interest for long-term goals—is argued to be an important individual factor for achievement, especially in the face of obstacles. However, little research has examined the possible fluctuations of effort and interest and how challenges may trigger the changes of effort and interest. In this study, we measured a teacher’s grit at the beginning of an online course during the COVID-19 pandemic, and we focused on the changes in a teacher’s effort and interest throughout the course. In this case study we unpacked the explanations of possible changes in grit via process tracing. Despite the fact that the teacher scored high on the grit scale, we found that the sudden shift from in-person to online teaching had put much pressure and demand on the teacher. The new teaching challenge influenced the teacher’s self-evaluation of their teaching performance and students’ engagement, which led to changes in effort and interest. Therefore, we argue that one’s average grit (e.g., measured by grit scale) cannot be the representation of their ability to maintain interest and effort on different occasions due to the influence of different situational causes or pressure. Specifically, during the course, the teacher’s effort and interest underwent changes on four occasions, characterized by four distinct dynamic patterns in terms of the interaction of high and low interest and effort. The four emerging patterns of L2 teacher effort and interest indicate that the construct of grit could be explained in terms of four dynamic clusters or archetypes. This study provides implications for understanding the complex dynamic nature of grit, which can be further explored through cluster analytic approaches in future studies.

Strategic Development of a Decision Making Support System in a Public R&D Center

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Escobar-Toledo ◽  
Héctor A. Martínez-Berumen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Development ◽  
Organizational Functions ◽  
Transition Plan ◽  
Reliable Methods

Decision making in new technologies is a crucial activity to raise competitiveness, especially for technology organizations. The decision-making process requires the use of information technology tools, since the information amount is large and requires reliable methods for collecting, accessing, storing, processing, distributing, and evaluating, in order to provide reliable information to decision makers. The strategy of an organization must take into account the integration of this aspect with other organizational functions. This paper presents a proposal to integrate new elements into the IT strategy, considering the interactions with other organizational functions, defining an implementation and transition plan that takes into account the organization dynamics, which has limited resources and, therefore, requires a gradual and long term transition plan. This paper refers as case study to a Mexican Public R&D Center, which has re-engineered its operating model with a systems approach.

scholarly journals Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 433
Author(s):  
Christoffer Carstens ◽  
Karin Mossberg Sonnek ◽  
Riitta Räty ◽  
Per Wikman-Svahn ◽  
Annika Carlsson-Kanyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Legal Constraints ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
Municipal Level

The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome.

“Gossip boys”: insider trading and regulatory ambiguity

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura L. Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
White Collar Crime ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
The Face

Purpose – The purpose of this viewpoint, case study analysis paper is to assist in understanding how history repeats itself in the case of insider trading, even with regulatory intervention. Design/methodology/approach – Qualitative methodology approach, using interviews of some of the watchdogs of Wall Street (SEC, US Attorney's Office) during the insider trading scandals of the 1980s. Key themes including ambiguity of money, regulation, and the networks of financial institution professionals are discussed. Findings – Findings suggest that regulation is difficult if nearly impossible, in the face of limited resources and regulatory ambiguity. Practical implications – This paper suggests a network approach to regulators, corporate decision makers, and academics in order to understand the structure of insider trading conspiracies. Originality/value – Continues the tradition of qualitative research in a niche of white-collar crime that is more often approached with strict statistic analysis. Value is that the data are allowed to “speak for themselves” and patterns of structure are allowed to emerge without prior biases of hypotheses.

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