scholarly journals Roadmapping in the Era of Uncertainty: How to Integrate Data-Driven Methods with Expert Insights

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-51
Author(s):  
Sungjoo Lee ◽  
◽  
Kook Jin Jang ◽  
Myung Han Lee ◽  
Seong Ryong Shin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Automobile Industry ◽  
Technology Innovation ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Soft Data ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Integrate Data

Roadmapping has long been regarded as a practical tool for supporting decision-making for science and technology innovation and it has received recent attention for its potential use in responses to uncertainty. Indeed, roadmapping enables forward-looking strategy making and thus helps to reduce uncertainty. Accordingly, numerous studies have been conducted to propose new approaches to roadmapping for a wide range of contexts, including the data-driven and expert-based approaches. Although these two main approaches have distinct advantages and disadvantages, few previous studies have focused on how to integrate them into roadmapping to better support decision-making related to science and technology innovation. To address this research gap, this study investigated how to integrate data-driven approaches with expert insights during roadmapping. For this purpose, a workshop-based roadmapping method was combined with data-driven methods to test this approach in the context of technology planning for the automobile industry. An ethnographic approach was used to collect data on when, where, and how data analysis must be conducted to support experts’ discussions. The research findings open a discussion regarding how to integrate data-driven methods with expert insights during roadmapping based on the trade-offs between the two types of data, that is, hard data for data-driven methods and soft data from expert insights, and suggest possible opportunities for future roadmapping developments.

scholarly journals Smart EcoCUVA – Tools for Food Marketing Strategy

2006 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Maarit Pallari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Action Research ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Utility Value ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Application Fields

The implementation of the green productivity and marketing concept in agribusiness is a must in the future.Food production is influenced by the environment and society, and vice versa. Today a growing number ofconsumers are aware of the link between environmental and social well-being and fresh, pure, healthy, tastyand safe foodstuffs. Enterprises will have to consider three important aspects of value when doing business:economic, social and environmental value. The foundation of the quality research this study is concernedwith is action research. Action research is a way to analyze sustainable development, the aptness ofagriculture and the marketing opportunities these offer for developing ecoproducts in the SMEs.The study seeks to answer the following questions:- What kind of Classical Utility Value Analyses could be tool of the eco-product?- To what extent can a customer/interest group affect the development and decision-making of ecoproducts?- Is the method a suitable tool for analyzing ecological criterions in the marketing model?Classical Utility Value Analysis is a formal, analytic approach for evaluating and comparing differentalternatives. It is one decision making method of multi-criteria analysis. The roots of utility value analysis,which is one of the mathematical models for analytical decision making, are in the USA and Germany. Themethod is almost 40 years old, of the same age as the manuscript of the values tradeoff. The same historicallanguage is being used to build up new tools, principles and theory. The so-called Smart EcoCUVA hasused both methodologies (Utility value analysis and decision making analysis) when setting the goals andmathematical steps. Research results always give the best available alternative.Making rational decisions for any complex problem requires various analyses of trade-offs (compromises)between conflicting goals (objectives, outcomes) that are used for measuring the results of applying variousdecisions in a wide range of application fields. A typical decision problem has an infinite number ofsolutions, and decision makers are interested in analyzing trade-offs between those that correspond to theirpreferences, which is often called a preferential structure of the decision-maker.Smart EcoCuva analysis helps to assess different alternatives according to a variety of environmentalcriteria associated with enterprises and their products. The analysis methods take account of the monetaryand non-monetary aspects when determining the selection of the best alternative. Smart EcoCuva is themethodological cornerstone for the creation of an innovative concept that will contribute to encouraging theefficient use of natural resources and thereby enhancing sustainability.The Smart EcoCuva tools to be developed aim to be environmentally sound, economically viable, sociallyjust and culturally appropriate. They are a new, science-based reaction of sustainable agriculture to globalatmosphere, as well as constitute an appropriate link between people and nature. New environmentallyfriendly food combines healthy food with people’s lifestyles.

Using Dynamic and Hybrid Bayesian Network for Policy Decision Making

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-34
Author(s):  
Tabassom Sedighi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Subjective Data ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
Support Decision Making

The Bayesian network (BN) method is one of the data-driven methods which have been successfully used to assist problem-solving in a wide range of disciplines including policy making, information technology, engineering, medicine, and more recently biology and ecology. BNs are particularly useful for diverse problems of varying size and complexity, where uncertainties are inherent in the system. BNs engage directly with subjective data in a transparent way and have become a state-of-the-art technology to support decision-making under uncertainty.

scholarly journals Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 468-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Todini
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Predictive Uncertainty ◽  
Catchment Modelling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Or Benchmarks

Abstract. This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

scholarly journals Models in animal collective decision-making: information uncertainty and conflicting preferences

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Conradt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Cohesion ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Physiological Status ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Information Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Accuracy ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Wide Range

Collective decision-making plays a central part in the lives of many social animals. Two important factors that influence collective decision-making are information uncertainty and conflicting preferences. Here, I bring together, and briefly review, basic models relating to animal collective decision-making in situations with information uncertainty and in situations with conflicting preferences between group members. The intention is to give an overview about the different types of modelling approaches that have been employed and the questions that they address and raise. Despite the use of a wide range of different modelling techniques, results show a coherent picture, as follows. Relatively simple cognitive mechanisms can lead to effective information pooling. Groups often face a trade-off between decision accuracy and speed, but appropriate fine-tuning of behavioural parameters could achieve high accuracy while maintaining reasonable speed. The right balance of interdependence and independence between animals is crucial for maintaining group cohesion and achieving high decision accuracy. In conflict situations, a high degree of decision-sharing between individuals is predicted, as well as transient leadership and leadership according to needs and physiological status. Animals often face crucial trade-offs between maintaining group cohesion and influencing the decision outcome in their own favour. Despite the great progress that has been made, there remains one big gap in our knowledge: how do animals make collective decisions in situations when information uncertainty and conflict of interest operate simultaneously?

Multi-criteria decision making towards selection of industrial robot

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 465-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilip Kumar Sen ◽  
Saurav Datta ◽  
Saroj Kumar Patel ◽  
Siba Sankar Mahapatra
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Promethee Ii ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Robot Selection ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose – Robot selection is one of the critical decision-making tasks frequently performed by various industries in order to choose the best suited robot for specific industrial purposes. In recent marketplace, the number of robot manufacturers has increased remarkably offering a wide range of models and specifications; thus, robot selection has become indeed confusing as well as complicated task. Selection of an appropriate robot is a sensitive process; it may result massive letdown, if not chosen properly. Therefore, for unravel the selection problem; the purpose of this paper is to explore the preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) II method. Design/methodology/approach – Apart from a large variety of robotic systems, existence of various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools and techniques may create confusion to the decision makers’ in regards of application feasibility as well as superiority in performance to work under different decision-making situations. In this context, the PROMETHEE II method has been found as an efficient decision-making tool which provides complete ranking order of all available alternatives prudently, thus avoiding errors in decision making. Findings – In this context, the present paper highlights application potential of aforesaid PROMETHEE II method in relation to robot selection problem subjected to a set of quantitative (objective) evaluation data collected from the available literature resources. Advantages and disadvantages of PROMETHEE II method have also been reported in comparison to other existing MCDM approaches. Originality/value – The study bears significant managerial implications. Proper evaluation and selection of appropriate candidate robot would be helpful for the industries in order to improve product quality as well as to increase productivity. Proper utilization of resources could be ensured. Functioning would be accurate with reduced timespan. As a consequence, company can increase its profit margin in long run.

Science and Technology Observatory for ''NOCMAT'' in Brazil: Role and Proposed Framework

2014 ◽  
Vol 600 ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Ohayon ◽  
Danielle Sampaio Barreiros ◽  
Khosrow Ghavami
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Technology Innovation ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Research Groups ◽  
Social Communities ◽  
National System ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
Research Institutes

The indicators for Science and Technology Innovation (S&T) used for decision-making within the national system of research and innovation related to Non-Conventional Materials and Technologies (NOCMAT), do not concern only the federal political sphere, but also research groups of universities, research institutes and scientific and technical associations. These agents influence is frequently insignificant for decision making when compared to the dominant and centralizing industries which have created their proper indicators for justifying the application of conventional industrialized products. A culture of NOCMAT indicators should be disseminated into the scientific and social communities so that decisions at all levels should be based on relevant, reliable and transparent information, notably at the regional level. The main objective of this paper is to establish the terms of reference of the "NOCMAT Observatory" for Novel Construction Materials & Technologies for Sustainability not yet existing in Brazil, notably defining its role, dynamic organizational framework, "products" and services to be provided.

Applying Evaluation to Information Science and Technology

2011 ◽  
pp. 200-205
Author(s):  
David Dwayne Williams
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Learning Improvement ◽  
Evaluative Judgments ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Assessment Techniques ◽  
Evaluation Formative

As indicated by the wide range of topics addressed by this Encyclopedia, the fields of information science and technology have grown exponentially. Likewise, the field of evaluation has evolved and become increasingly integral to learning and improving upon principles and practices associated with all fields the Encyclopedia explores. The field of evaluation is the formal transdiscipline of gathering information about the performance or nature of objects of evaluation and comparing the objects’ performance to criteria to help participants make evaluative judgments (Scriven, 2004). Evaluation includes several elements: negotiation with multiple participants regarding their values and criteria, using many different kinds of processes to document and judge the performance of various objects of evaluation, formative and summative purposes, measurement and assessment techniques, and use of quantitative and qualitative data gathering and analysis processes. This chapter documents the development of evaluation as a field; presents a framework for thinking about evaluation that is theoretically sound and practical to use; and explores ways to apply the framework to facilitate learning, improvement, decision-making, and judgment in all sub-fields of information science and technology.

scholarly journals Models for Ethical Decision-Making for Use in Teaching Information Ethics: Challenges for Educating Diverse Information Professionals

2004 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toni Carbo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Graduate Students ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Doctoral Degree ◽  
Information Ethics ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ethics Course ◽  
Information Professionals ◽  
Teaching Information

Teaching Information Ethics to a very diverse group of graduate students working towards careers as information professionals raises a number of challenges. The students come from different disciplines and a wide range of diverse educational, economic, social, and cultural backgrounds and from several different countries. At the University of Pittsburgh, students in the Information Ethics course are enrolled in one of three master’s or doctoral degree programs at the School of Information Sciences: information science, library and information science or telecommunications. In addition, graduate students, and an occasional senior-level undergraduate student, from other disciplines and schools, such as business, medicine, public and international affairs, as well as students from other universities, such as Carnegie Mellon University, take the fifteen-week course. Identifying and using models for ethical reflection and moral decision-making requires drawing on materials from several disciplines and adapting those models for the course. This paper will discuss some of the models used in the past, the advantages and disadvantages of the model currently used (i.e., Richard Paul and Linda Elder’s, The Miniature Guide to Understanding the Foundations of Ethical Reasoning. The Foundation for Critical Thinking, Dillon Beach, CA, 2003), and the evolution of the Information Ethics course over its fifteen-year history.

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