Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential : (2) Future Prospect of the Potential Under Climate Change

The interest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel is increasing as the problem caused by climate change become more severe. Small hydropower (SHP) is evaluated as a resource with high development value because of its high energy density compared to other renewable energy sources. SHP may be an attractive and sustainable power generation environmental perspective because of its potential to be found in small rivers and streams. The power generation potential could be estimated based on the discharge in the river basin. Since the river discharge depends on the climate conditions, the hydropower generation potential changes sensitively according to climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the SHP potential in consideration of future climate change. In this study, the future prospect of SHP potential is simulated for the period of 2021 to 2100 considering the climate change in three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon stations, Korea. As the results, SHP potential for the near future (2021 to 2040) shows a tendency to be increased and the highest increase is 23.4% at the Deoksong SPH plant. Through the result of future prospect, we have shown that hydroelectric power generation capacity or SHP potential will be increased in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP in order to expand the use of renewable energy. Also, a methodology presented in this study could be used for the future prospect of the small hydropower potential.

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Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14123643 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (12) ◽

pp. 3643

Author(s):

Jaewon Jung ◽

Heechan Han ◽

Kyunghun Kim ◽

Hung Soo Kim

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Climate Change ◽

Energy Source ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Carbon Emission ◽

Small Hydropower ◽

Runoff Prediction ◽

The Future ◽

Artificial Neural

As the effects of climate change are becoming severe, countries need to substantially reduce carbon emissions. Small hydropower (SHP) can be a useful renewable energy source with a high energy density for the reduction of carbon emission. Therefore, it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP to expand the use of renewable energy. To efficiently plan and utilize this energy source, there is a need to assess the future SHP potential based on an accurate runoff prediction. In this study, the future SHP potential was predicted using a climate change scenario and an artificial neural network model. The runoff was simulated accurately, and the applicability of an artificial neural network to the runoff prediction was confirmed. The results showed that the total amount of SHP potential in the future will generally a decrease compared to the past. This result is applicable as base data for planning future energy supplies and carbon emission reductions.

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What we can learn from the parallels between the COVID-19 and the future climate change crises

10.32942/osf.io/eg6hr ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Rubén D. Manzanedo ◽

Peter Manning

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Economy ◽

Global Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Substantial Portion ◽

Preventative Measures ◽

The Future ◽

Behavioral Norm ◽

Climate Crisis ◽

Global Population

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 1.6+ million confirmed cases and 100 000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have put a substantial portion of the global population under confinement, imposed isolation, and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, while also threatening the health of the global economy. This crisis offers also an unprecedented view of what the global climate crisis may look like. In fact, some of the parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the looming global climate emergency are remarkable. Reflecting upon the most challenging aspects of today’s crisis and how they compare with those expected from the climate change emergency may help us better prepare for the future.

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Climate, ticks and disease

10.1079/9781789249637.0000 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Disease Ecology ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Expert Opinions ◽

The World ◽

Host Pathogen ◽

The Future ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

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Power Generation In Nigeria: The Past, Present And The Future

Passive Remote Study of the Aerosol in the Upper Atmosphere of the Earth ◽

10.47363/jeesr/2020(2)116 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

Adeoye Samuel ◽

◽

Oladimeji TT ◽

Keyword(s):

Power Generation ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Electrical Power ◽

Electrical Energy ◽

Power Imbalance ◽

Power Demand ◽

Electrical Power System ◽

Hydro Power ◽

The Future

The goal of power sector in Nigeria is to efficiently and reliably transmit electrical power to all parts of the country which are made up of thirty-six states of the federation and the federal capital territory. The constituents of electrical power system are the generation, transmission, distribution and the utilization of electrical energy. There is gross power imbalance between the generation and the required power demand which has culminated into a defective economy in the last three decades. This paper therefore examines the power imbalance between the generation and power demand by the consumers and therefore stresses the need to harness the opportunity of renewable energy generation close to the gap between the power generation and power demand. This will help in transmitting and distributing efficient, effective, reliable power to consumers and improve both human and capital development. The availability of renewable energy sources such as sun, wind and small hydro power will be explored for the future of power generation in the country to fill in the gap between power generation and demand in Nigeria

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Impact of climate change on hydropower production in the Upper Danube

10.5194/ems2021-493 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ignacio Martin Santos ◽

Mathew Herrnegger ◽

Hubert Holzmann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Transfer Functions ◽

Danube River ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

In the last two decades, different climate downscaling initiatives provided climate scenarios for Europe. The most recent initiative, CORDEX, provides Regional Climate Model (RCM) data for Europe with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, while the previous initiative, ENSEMBLES, had a spatial resolution of 25 km. They are based on different emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) respectively.A study carried out by Stanzel et al. (2018) explored the hydrological impact and discharge projections for the Danube basin upstream of Vienna when using either CORDEX and ENSEMBLES data. This basin covers an area of 101.810km2 with a mean annual discharge of 1923 m3/s at the basin outlet. The basin is dominated by the Alps, large gradients and is characterized by high annual precipitations sums which provides valuable water resources available along the basin. Hydropower therefore plays an important role and accounts for more than half of the installed power generating capacity for this area. The estimation of hydropower generation under climate change is an important task for planning the future electricity supply, also considering the on-going EU efforts and the &#8220;Green Deal&#8221; initiative.Taking as input the results from Stanzel et al. (2018), we use transfer functions derived from historical discharge and hydropower generation data, to estimate potential changes for the future. The impact of climate change projections of ENSEMBLE and CORDEX in respect to hydropower generation for each basin within the study area is determined. In addition, an assessment of the impact on basins dominated by runoff river plants versus basins dominated by storage plants is considered.The good correlation between discharge and hydropower generation found in the historical data suggests that discharge projection characteristics directly affect the future expected hydropower generation. Large uncertainties exist and stem from the ensembles of climate runs, but also from the potential operation modes of the (storage) hydropower plants in the future.&#160;&#160;References:Stanzel, P., Kling, H., 2018. From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: Evolving climate change projections for Upper Danube River flow. J. Hydrol. 563, 987&#8211;999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.057&#160;

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An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-368-257-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 368 ◽

pp. 257-262

Author(s):

K. Lin ◽

W. Zhai ◽

S. Huang ◽

Z. Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

South China ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Future Climate ◽

Weather Data ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Dongjiang River ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

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The future of European floodplain wetlands under a changing climate

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2011.020 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2 (2-3) ◽

pp. 106-122 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Christof Schneider ◽

Martina Flörke ◽

Gertjan Geerling ◽

Harm Duel ◽

Mateusz Grygoruk ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Scale ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Floodplain Wetlands ◽

Potential Threat ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

The Future ◽

Floodplain Inundation

In the future, climate change may severely alter flood patterns over large regional scales. Consequently, besides other anthropogenic factors, climate change represents a potential threat to river ecosystems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on floodplain inundation for important floodplain wetlands in Europe and to place these results in an ecological context. This work is performed within the Water Scenarios for Europe and Neighbouring States (SCENES) project considering three different climate change projections for the 2050s. The global scale hydrological model WaterGAP is applied to simulate current and future river discharges that are then used to: (i) estimate bankfull flow conditions, (ii) determine three different inundation parameters, and (iii) evaluate the hydrological consequences and their relation to ecology. Results of this study indicate that in snow-affected catchments (e.g. in Central and Eastern Europe) inundation may appear earlier in the year. Duration and volume of inundation are expected to decrease. This will lead to a reduction in habitat for fish, vertebrates, water birds and floodplain-specific vegetation causing a loss in biodiversity, floodplain productivity and fish production. Contradictory results occur in Spain, France, Southern England and the Benelux countries. This reflects the uncertainties of current climate modelling for specific seasons.

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Susceptibility of Hydropower Generation to Climate Change: Karun III Dam Case Study

Water ◽

10.3390/w11051025 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 1025 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Maryam Beheshti ◽

Ali Heidari ◽

Bahram Saghafian

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Power Generation ◽

General Circulation ◽

Average Power ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Precipitation Trend ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Climate change can cause serious problems for future hydropower plant projects and make them less economically justified. Changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and abrupt snow melting affect river stream patterns and hydropower generation. Thus, study of climate change impacts during the useful life of a hydropower dam is essential and its outcome should be considered in assessing long-term dam feasibility. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future hydropower generation in the Karun-III dam located in the southwest region of Iran in two future tri-decadal periods: near (2020–2049) and far (2070–2099). Had-CM3 general circulation model predictions under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were applied, and downscaled by a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). An artificial neural network (ANN) and HEC-ResSim reservoir model respectively simulated the rainfall–runoff process and hydropower generation. The projections showed that the Karun-III dam catchment under the two scenarios will generally become warmer and wetter with a slightly larger increase in annual precipitation in the near than the far future. Runoff followed the precipitation trend by increasing in both periods. The runoff peak also switched from April to March in both scenarios, due to higher winter precipitation, and earlier snowmelt, which was caused by temperature rise. According to both scenarios, hydropower generation increased more in the near future than in the far future. Annual average power generation increased gradually by 26.7–40.5% under A2 and by 17.4–29.3% under B2 in 2020–2049. In the far period, average power generation increased by 1.8–8.7% in A2 and by 10.5–22% under B2. In the near future, A2 showed energy deduction in the months of June and July, while B2 revealed a decrease in the months of April and June. Additionally, projections in the 2070–2099 under A2 exhibited energy reduction in the months of March through July, while B2 revealed a decrease in April through July. The framework utilized in this study can be exploited to analyze the susceptibility of hydropower production in the long term.

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Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

Avian Biology Research ◽

10.3184/175815618x15316676114070 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 221-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Bijoy Chhetri ◽

Hemant K. Badola ◽

Sudip Barat

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Azimuth Angle ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Slope Aspect ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

Present Distribution ◽

Community Assemblages

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

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