Ruapehu Lahar New Zealand 18 March 2007: Lessons for Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation 1995-2007

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 284-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry J. R. Keys ◽  
◽  
Paul M. Green

A moderately large lahar caused by a collapse of a tephra dam over the outlet of Crater Lake occurred 11 years and 4 months after the situation that led to it was first recognized. This allowed sufficient time for the considerable period needed by emergency managers and the Government to learn from scientists about the hazard, assess risks in pragmatic and robust ways, debate and progressively mitigate them. Early involvement of a wide range of agencies and the media was encouraged, enabling transfer of knowledge, development of interagency relationships and provided fora for a mitigation strategy to evolve in the face of sometimes controversial mitigation options. Decisions about options were based primarily on maximizing public safety and long-term utility in a valley subject to frequent, sometimes large, past and future lahars. These decisions, which had a significant political component also considered option suitability in a national park setting. A best-practice alarm system was installed based on acoustic flow monitors. A training levee structure was built to protect a highway and other vulnerable infrastructure and a river system near-by, and a key highway bridge raised and strengthened. Response agencies each prepared their own emergency plans which were then integrated and practiced over 3-4 years, incorporating an increasing readiness triggered by a Warning Level system linking to rising lake levels. Execution of the plans progressed smoothly on 18 March. The outcome showed that community resilience to lahars was achieved by adopting long-term solutions, rather than short-term ones, and carefully considering cultural, social, and technological perspectives, especially in a national park setting. Decision-making procedures that give weight to impartial scientific information, as well as values and legislation, are required for effective disaster mitigation, including an acceptance of an appropriate degree of residual risk.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Yu-Hin Siu ◽  
Lorand Kristof ◽  
Dawn Elston ◽  
Abe Hafid ◽  
Fred Mather

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a significant public health emergency that impacts all sectors of healthcare. The negative health outcomes for the COVID-19 infection have been most severe in the frail elderly dwelling in Canadian long-term care (LTC) homes.Methods: An online cross-sectional survey of Ontario LTC Clinicians working in LTC homes in Ontario Canada was conducted to provide the LTC clinician perspective on the preparedness and engagement of the LTC sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey questionnaire was developed in collaboration with the Ontario Long-Term Care Clinicians organization (OLTCC) and was distributed between March 30, 2020 to May 25, 2020. All registered members of the OLTCC and Nurse-led LTC Outreach Teams were invited to participate. The primary outcomes were: 1) the descriptive report of the screening measures implemented, communication and information received, and the preparation of the respondent’s LTC home to a potential COVID-19 outbreak; and 2) the level of agreement, as reported using a five-point Likert scale), to COVID-19 preparedness statements for the respondent’s LTC home was also assessed.Results: The overall response rate was 54% (160/294). LTC homes implemented a wide range of important interventions (e.g. instituting established respiratory isolation protocols, active screening of new LTC admissions, increasing education on infection control processes, encouraging sick staff to take time off, etc). Ample communications pertinent to the pandemic were received from provincial LTC organizations, the government and public health officials. However, the feasibility of implementing public health recommendations, as well as the engagement of the LTC sector in pandemic planning were identified as areas of concern. Medical director status was associated with an increased knowledge of local implementation of interventions to mitigate COVID-19, as well as endorsing increased access to reliable COVID-19 information and resources to manage a potential COVID-19 outbreak in their LTC home.Conclusions: This study highlights the communication to and implementation of recommendations in the Ontario LTC sector, despite some concerns regarding feasibility. Importantly, LTC clinician respondents clearly indicated that better engagement with LTC leaders is needed to plan a coordinated pandemic response.


2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 385-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Michael Orszag ◽  
Dennis J. Snower

Abstract This paper explores the optimal design of subsidies for hiring unemployed workers (`employment vouchers' for short) in the context of a simple dynamic model of the labour market. Focusing on the short-term and long-term effects of the vouchers on employment and unemployment, the analysis shows how the optimal policy depends on the rates of hiring and firing, and on the problems of displacement and deadweight. It also examines the roles of the government budget constraint and of the level of unemployment benefits in optimal policy design. We calibrate the model and evaluate the effectiveness of employment vouchers in reducing unemployment for a wide range of feasible parameters.


Author(s):  
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad ◽  
Emmy Farha Alias ◽  
Kusairi Mohd Noh ◽  
Muhammad Tasrif

Malaysia’s stance on food security is largely translated in terms of achieving self-sufficiency in rice production at about 65-70% of the local consumption. Since Malaysia does not have the comparative advantage in rice production, it implements a wide range of market interventions to achieve the intended level of rice production. The policy instruments include among others: guaranteed minimum price for paddy, price control, price and input subsidies and import monopoly. These interventionist instruments may not be sustainable in the long-term as they incur a high budgetary burden to the government, misallocation of resources and liberalization demand from WTO. The industry faces challenges in terms of land competition for urbanization and industrial uses and declining soil fertility due to heavy use of chemical fertilizer. This paper examines the influence of the fertilizer and the cash subsidies, as well as land conversion and fertility on the level of self-sufficiency in rice. A system dynamics model is applied to analyse the causal and feedback relationships of these variables in the paddy production system framework. The study shows that Malaysia may not be able to sustain the targeted self-sufficiency level without adequate R&D to address the production constraints particularly below-optimum productivity and the threats of climate change. The consumption of rice on the other hand continues to rise due to the increase in population.   Keywords: Paddy and rice, Malaysia, system dynamics, policy analysis.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Yu-Hin Siu ◽  
Lorand Kristof ◽  
Dawn Elston ◽  
Abe Hafid ◽  
Fred Mather

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a significant public health emergency that impacts all sectors of healthcare. The negative health outcomes for the COVID-19 infection have been most severe in the frail elderly dwelling in Canadian long-term care (LTC) homes. Methods: An online cross-sectional survey of Ontario LTC Clinicians working in LTC homes in Ontario Canada was conducted to provide the LTC clinician perspective on the preparedness and engagement of the LTC sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey questionnaire was developed in collaboration with the Ontario Long-Term Care Clinicians organization (OLTCC) and was distributed between March 30, 2020 to May 25, 2020. All registered members of the OLTCC and Nurse-led LTC Outreach Teams were invited to participate. The primary outcomes were: 1) the descriptive report of the screening measures implemented, communication and information received, and the preparation of the respondent’s LTC home to a potential COVID-19 outbreak; and 2) the level of agreement, as reported using a five-point Likert scale), to COVID-19 preparedness statements for the respondent’s LTC home was also assessed.Results: The overall response rate was 54% (160/294). LTC homes implemented a wide range of important interventions (e.g. instituting established respiratory isolation protocols, active screening of new LTC admissions, increasing education on infection control processes, encouraging sick staff to take time off, etc). Ample communications pertinent to the pandemic were received from provincial LTC organizations, the government and public health officials. However, the feasibility of implementing public health recommendations, as well as the engagement of the LTC sector in pandemic planning were identified as areas of concern. Medical director status was associated with an increased knowledge of local implementation of interventions to mitigate COVID-19, as well as endorsing increased access to reliable COVID-19 information and resources to manage a potential COVID-19 outbreak in their LTC home. Conclusions: This study highlights the communication to and implementation of recommendations in the Ontario LTC sector, despite some concerns regarding feasibility. Importantly, LTC clinician respondents clearly indicated that better engagement with LTC leaders is needed to plan a coordinated pandemic response.


Author(s):  
Liudmyla M. Hanushchak-Yefimenko ◽  
Yana M. Synianska ◽  
Oleksii V. Baula

The article seeks to address contemporary challenges in developing integrated business structures associated with the need to upgrade and innovate most important industries, provide industrial restructuring, and reduce technological backwardness and attain high-tech manufacturing growth. An emphasis is put on the critical significance of modernization in gaining a competitive edge of the national economy that will enhance Ukraine’s positions in a modern globalized world. This study employs a wide range of various research tools, in particular, methods of analysis, synthesis, generalization and comparison – to determine the nature, economic content, structural elements and drivers affecting the process of integrated business structure development in Ukraine; structural and functional analysis – to identify relevant institutional structures; as well as integrated assessment techniques – to explore international best practice in building integrated business units. Given the current trends and the specifics, it is argued that company development within a business group model spurs continuous improvement and innovation to meet market digitalization demands. The findings reveal the key aspects in developing integrated business groups as a new type of institutional structures in Ukraine. The study also focuses on the goals of their further development to implement transformational changes along with considering a number of factors affecting the nature of enterprise reorganizations and restructuring in the frameworks of their integration into business groups. Within the scope of this research, integrated business groups are viewed as a driving force in boosting Ukraine's economic development. The study suggests that the government industrial and antitrust policies should actively promote integrated business group models, including the international ones, as long as corporate and national interests are reconciled. It is reported that integrated business groups account for 15% of the total industrial output, respectively, integrated business groups are mesoeconomic entities representing a new type of a social institution that attempts to forecast supply and demand in a particular world market segment and implements its predictive outcomes through big innovations.


Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1499 ◽  
Author(s):  
José A. Aznar-Sánchez ◽  
Juan F. Velasco-Muñoz ◽  
Daniel García-Arca ◽  
Belén López-Felices

The use of intensive high-yield agricultural systems has proved to be a feasible alternative to traditional systems as they able to meet the objective of guaranteeing long-term sustainability in the supply of food. In order to implement these systems, it is necessary to replace the traditional model of “extract-use-consume-dispose” with a model based on the principles of the Circular Economy (CE), optimizing the use of resources and minimizing the generation of waste. Almería has become a paradigm of this type of high-yield agricultural system, with the largest concentration of greenhouses in the world. This study analyses the opportunities that the CE can offer the intensive agriculture sector in Almería in order to obtain long-term sustainability. The results show a wide variety of alternatives, both on an agricultural exploitation level and in the case of the product packaging and wholesale centers. The priority areas of action are waste management, the prevention of product waste and the improvement in the efficiency of the use of water and energy. The principal limitations for adopting circular practices are the large investment required, the limited transfer of knowledge between the different users and the lack of sufficient support from the government and the sector.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 691-692
Author(s):  
Emily Ihara

Abstract Person-centered dementia care is a best practice recommendation by the Alzheimer’s Association, and non-pharmacologic interventions that emphasize well-being and quality of life as defined by the individual are important to preserve personhood. Non-pharmacologic, person-centered interventions have been shown to effectively address various neuropsychiatric symptoms, commonly known as behavioral and psychological symptoms in dementia (BPSD), which include a wide range of behaviors such as verbal or physical aggression, agitation, wandering, and pacing. Interventions that are focused on an individual’s holistic needs and preferences can stimulate positive emotions and behavior regardless of the stage of dementia. Person-centered care emphasizes a social model of care, rather than a medical model, by focusing on an individual’s emotional needs and care preferences that are consistent with their previous lifestyle. This symposium explores four different non-pharmacologic interventions for individuals living with dementia and discusses challenges and best practices for implementation in long-term care settings. For example, a best practice includes “buy-in” from facility staff who ultimately are responsible for implementing interventions that follow a social care model. A challenge found includes creating consistency and adherence to non-pharmacologic interventions so they are sustained over time, potentially replacing additional doses of medication. Symposium presenters will discuss the Mason Music & Memory Initiative (M3I), the Alzheimer’s Poetry Project, Birdsong, and TimeSlips, which are all interventions that are relatively low-cost and easy to implement by non-specialists. Strategies for intergenerational programming and adaptability of these programs to different contexts will also be discussed.


1970 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Gede Trisna Sura Nata ◽  
I G. A Adnyana Putera ◽  
Gd. Astawa Diputra

Abstract:The construction of Dewaruci Underpass was an attempt by the government to improve accessibility to support economic growth as well as to improve social welfare. The construction activities of Dewaruci Underpass can bring a wide range of risks, therefore it was conducted a research to identify the risks, assess the risks by analyzing the level of risk acceptance, risk mitigation and ownership of the dominant risk. This research was conductedbyqualitativedescriptivemethod, namely the field research, based on theliterature reviewandsupporting data. Data was collected bydistributing questionnaires tothe respondentsusingpurposive sampling method, whichsimplyselectingrespondentswho were competentandexperienced(expert) about the possiblerisksthatoccurduring theexecution ofthe construction of Dewaruci Underpass. The study was conductedin the area ofdevelopment projects of Dewaruci Underpass, JalanNgurahRaiBypass, Badung from March 2013toJune 2013. The results showedthat there were99risks identifiedand46(46.46%) of dominantriskcategory. The dominantrisks were most prevalentinthe projectrisks. There were105measuresto mitigatetheriskdominantwith 19mitigationmeasuresatan unacceptablerisk. Mostdominantrisksweretherisks ofcontractorsof41(58.57%) withsevenunacceptable risks.Thedominantrisksfor examples:disruption ofconstructiondue tothe density oftraffic, the mitigation measures were doingtraffic controlalong with the relevant agenciesandcarried out most ofthe majorworksoutsiderush hourtrafficandthe risk wasborne bythe contractor. Groundwater levelswereshallow, the mitigation measureswerepreparingdewateringwellsandthe pumpandput thework onthe drainagechannel, andthe risk wasborne bythe contractor.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-162
Author(s):  
Juliansyah Roy ◽  
Zamruddin Hasid ◽  
Diana Lestari ◽  
Dio Caisar Darma ◽  
Erwin Kurniawan A

Apart from the health aspect, Covid-19 has also had socio-economic effects from the fragile balance of development that has designed so far. Instantly, humans experience suffering that is difficult to predict when it will stop. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the fragility of the socio-economic order because of Covid-19. These two motifs are the basic essence of human beings, especially the population in Indonesia. A two-way correlation applied to the IBM SPSS to predict the effect of Covid-19 on poverty, natality, minimum wages, divorce, GRDP per capita, unemployment, and crime over two periods. The database is as cross-section covering ten areas in East Kalimantan Province. We found the importance of the correlation parameter in this study that it turns out that Covid-19 closely related to the minimum wage, unemployment, and crime. Because Covid-19 has a positive effect on these three variables and the probability has met the criteria, this is also the right instrument for the government in determining special strategies. The implications of the research are to contribute to long-term management in disaster mitigation planning.


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