scholarly journals Evaluating the Rising Secular Trends of Incidence and Partial Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran: Join point regression

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouhebat Vali ◽  
Hossein Molavi Vardanjani ◽  
Jafar Hassanzadeh

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is expected to be of the most common cancers in developing countries, where the its mortality is high and less services are avaiable for cancer survivors. Methods To assess the incidence rate, firstly, the incidence rates of colon and rectum reported in the two sites of http://globocan.iarc.fr and http://healthdata.org from 1990 to 2017 were extracted based on gender and age groups (less than 40 and more than 40 years old), In the next step, according to the incidence and APC(annual percentage change) provided in the previous step, we predicted the incidence for the next years according to the formulas. we Estimated the prevalence of 1-year, 2-3 year and 4-5 year using survival and incidence according to the formula. At the end we predicted prevalence by 2030 in Iran. Results In our study, AAPC(average annual percentage change) for women was found to be 4.07%(CI: 3.76-4.39) in all age groups and AAPC= 4.30%(CI: 4.14-4.47) for men in all age groups. the predicted incidence in the group under 40 that in men it reaches from about 12 to 15 per 100,000 and for women from about 10 to 11 per 100,000. While the increase of 100/ 10000 was found in the women over 40 years and the increase of 150/100,000 was obtained in men. And In all groups, predicted prevalence rate increases. In the group under 40 and the group over 40 prevalence increase about 2000 and 26000 numbers respectively in women and men from 2000 to 2030. Conclusions With regard to the above mentioned cases, there is a strong need for cancers registry, which is the population information and follow-up of patients, and the establishment of research institutes to determine the basic needs of patients.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mesnad Alyabsi ◽  
Mohammed Algarni ◽  
Kanan Alshammari

Early-onset (<50 years old) colorectal cancer (CRC) has been increasing worldwide and is associated with poor outcomes. Over 85% of the Saudi population are <50 years old, which put them at heightened risk of early-onset CRC. No study assessed the trends in CRC incidence rates among the Saudis. The Joinpoint Regression software by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program was used to estimate the magnitude and direction of CRC incidence trends by age and gender. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 2001 and 2016 were computed. In a sensitivity analysis, we also assessed trends using various age groups. Between 2001 and 2016, the early-onset CRC incidence (per 105) increased from 1.32 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.54) to 2.02 (95% CI: 1.83, 2.22) with AAPC (2.6, 95% CI: -0.4, 5.7). At same period, the late-onset incidence increased from 3.54 (95% CI: 3.10, 3.97) to 9.14 (95% CI: 8.62, 9.66) with AAPC (6.1, 95% CI: 3.5, 8.8). Among early-onset CRC patients, age 40–49 has the highest rates and women in this age group has higher rate than men. Our national data showed a gradual increase in CRC incidence rates, which reflect the global concern of early-onset CRC. Further research is needed to understand the etiology of early-onset CRC. Primary health care providers must be alerted about the increasing rate of early-onset CRC. To reduce the future burden of the disease, initiating CRC screening before age 50 is warranted.


2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 357-357
Author(s):  
K. G. Nepple ◽  
S. A. Strope

357 Background: Multiple studies show an increasing incidence of renal cancer, possibly related to the rising use of cross sectional imaging. We explored if the increase in renal cancer incidence differs across age groups. Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry data for the years 1975-2006, we ascertained incident cases of renal cancer. Urothelial histology was excluded. Yearly incidence rates of renal cancer were calculated, age-adjusted to the United States 2,000 standard adult population, and stratified by age group (20-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80+). Age-specific trends in renal cancer diagnosis over time were evaluated with Poisson regression. Results: 63,843 incident renal cancer cases were identified in 544,684,745 person-years of observation. From 1975 to 2006, overall age-adjusted renal cancer incidence rose 238% from 7.4 to 17.6 per 100,000 adults. The mean age at diagnosis was 61.7 years in 1975, increased to 64.7 years in 1991, and then declined to 62.7 years by 2006. Using 1991 (the year of peak renal cancer age at diagnosis) as the dividing point, the average annual percentage increase in renal cancer incidence was 3.6% from 1976-1990 and 2.9% from 1991- 2006. The age-specific incidence rates of renal cancer increased in all age groups from 1975 to 2006; however the age-specific incidence rates changed at different rates (p<0.0001). Younger age groups showed a more rapid increase in renal cancer incidence over the second half of the study than did the older age groups. For example, for patients age 20-39 years the annual percentage change increased from 4.5% in 1975-1990 to 5.2% in 1991-2006 while annual percentage change decreased from 6.7% in 1975-1990 to 0.9% in 1991-2006 in those over 79 years old. The proportion of patients diagnosed younger than age 65 increased from 45.9% in 1991 to 55.3% in 2006. Conclusions: The incidence of renal cancer has risen steadily since 1975 and continues to increase in all age groups. In the last 15 years, mean age at diagnosis of renal cancer has decreased driven by an increased incidence in younger patients with proportionally less increase in older patients. No significant financial relationships to disclose.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidya Lakshmi Purushothaman ◽  
Raphael E. Cuomo ◽  
Cedric F. Garland ◽  
Timothy K. Mackey

Abstract Background Vitamin D has been identified as a potential protective factor in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). We expect to see a stronger association of ultraviolet B (UVB) exposure and CRC crude rates with increasing age since chronic vitamin D deficiency leads to sustained molecular changes that increase cancer risk. The DINOMIT (disjunction, initiation, natural selection, overgrowth, metastasis, involution, and transition) model postulates various stages of cancer development due to vitamin D deficiency and the associated latency period. The purpose of this study is to examine this age-dependent inverse relationship globally. Methods In this ecological study, a series of linear and polynomial regression tests were performed between country-specific UVB estimates adjusted for cloud cover and crude incidence rates of CRC for different age groups. Multiple linear regression was used to investigate the association between crude incidence rates of colorectal cancer and UVB estimate adjusting for urbanization, skin pigmentation, smoking, animal consumption, per capita GDP, and life expectancy. Statistical analysis was followed by geospatial visualization by producing choropleth maps. Results The inverse relationship between UVB exposure and CRC crude rates was stronger in older age groups at the country level. Quadratic curve fitting was preferred, and these models were statistically significant for all age groups. The inverse association between crude incidence rates of CRC and UVB exposure was statistically significant for age groups above 45 years, after controlling for covariates. Conclusion The age-dependent inverse association between UVB exposure and incidence of colorectal cancer exhibits a greater effect size among older age groups in global analyses. Studying the effect of chronic vitamin D deficiency on colorectal cancer etiology will help in understanding the necessity for population-wide screening programs for vitamin D deficiency, especially in regions with inadequate UVB exposure. Further studies are required to assess the need for adequate public health programs such as selective supplementation and food fortification.


Author(s):  
Carina Musetti ◽  
Mariela Garau ◽  
Rafael Alonso ◽  
Marion Piñeros ◽  
Isabelle Soerjomataram ◽  
...  

Uruguay has the highest colorectal cancer incidence rates in Latin America. Previous studies reported a stable incidence and a slight increase in mortality among males. We aimed to assess colorectal cancer incidence (2002–2017) and mortality trends (1990–2017) by age groups and sex, using data from the National Cancer Registry. Annual percent changes (APCs) were estimated using joinpoint regression models. We included 27,561 colorectal cancer cases and 25,403 deaths. We found an increasing incidence among both males and females aged 40–49, with annual increases of 3.1% (95%CI: 1.21–5.03) and 2.1% (95%CI: 0.49–3.66), respectively, and an increasein the rate in older males (70+) of 0.60% (95%CI: 0.02–1.20) per year between 2002 and 2017. Mortality remained stable among those younger than 50, whereas it decreased for older females aged 50–69 and 70+ (APC: −0.61% (−1.07–0.14) and −0.68% (−1.02–0.34), respectively), and increased for the oldest males (70+; APC: 0.74 (0.47–1.01)). In conclusion, we found rising colorectal cancer incidence accompanied by stable mortality in young adults. Sex disparities were also found among the older adults, with a more favorable pattern for females. Exposures to dietary and lifestyle risk factors, and inequalities in access to and awareness of screening programs, are probably among the main underlying causes and deserve further investigation.


2008 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig Veitch ◽  
Lisa Crossland ◽  
Heather Hanks ◽  
Yik-Hong Ho ◽  
Marlous Steeghs

Colorectal cancer (CRC) accounts for 15% of cancer incidence and mortality in Australia. Incidence rates have been rising for two decades. Little is known about the experiences, attitudes and perceptions of people with CRC who live in non-metropolitan areas. The aim of this study was to investigate participants? experiences with and attitudes to CRC. This Cancer Council of Queensland-funded project collected data in three phases - focus groups, individual interviews, postal survey - from patients treated for CRC in north Queensland. Qualitative and quantitative approaches were used to analyse the data. Participants had very little knowledge of CRC signs and symptoms pre-diagnosis, which sometimes led to delays in diagnosis. The speed of diagnosis was dependent on several practitioner-related factors. Treatment-related issues included coming to grips with the diagnosis and preparedness for treatment and side-effects. Personal beliefs and attitudes influenced treatment and follow-up decisions. Rural participants encountered travel-related difficulties, particularly during treatment as outpatients. There was a strong belief in the need for more public education about CRC in general, warning signs and symptoms, and familial risk factors. Good understanding of people?s knowledge of CRC, their attitudes towards screening, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up, will enable health and cancer services provide focused and relevant support to people with CRC, their families and carers. This is especially important in non-metropolitan areas where the full range of specialist services is not locally available.


Author(s):  
Gloria C. Chi ◽  
Michael H. Kanter ◽  
Bonnie H. Li ◽  
Lei Qian ◽  
Stephanie R. Reading ◽  
...  

Background Trends in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence rates for diverse races/ethnicities are largely unknown, presenting barriers to understanding the role of race/ethnicity in AMI occurrence. Methods and Results We identified AMI hospitalizations for Kaiser Permanente Southern California members, aged ≥35 years, during 2000 to 2014 using discharge diagnostic codes. We excluded hospitalizations with missing race/ethnicity information. We calculated annual incidence rates (age and sex standardized to the 2010 US census population) for AMI, ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction by race/ethnicity (Hispanic and non‐Hispanic racial groups: Asian or Pacific Islander, black, and white). Using Poisson regression, we estimated annual percentage change in AMI, non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction incidence by race/ethnicity and AMI incidence rate ratios between race/ethnicity pairs, adjusting for age and sex. We included 18 630 776 person‐years of observation and identified 44 142 AMI hospitalizations. During 2000 to 2014, declines in AMI, non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction were 48.7%, 34.2%, and 69.8%, respectively. Age‐ and sex‐standardized AMI hospitalization rates/100 000 person‐years declined for Hispanics (from 307 to 162), Asians or Pacific Islanders (from 271 to 158), blacks (from 347 to 199), and whites (from 376 to 189). Annual percentage changes ranged from −2.99% to −4.75%, except for blacks, whose annual percentage change was −5.32% during 2000 to 2009 and −1.03% during 2010 to 2014. Conclusions During 2000 to 2014, AMI, non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction hospitalization incidence rates declined substantially for each race/ethnic group. Despite narrowing rates among races/ethnicities, differences persist. Understanding these differences can help identify unmet needs in AMI prevention and management to guide targeted interventions.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidya Lakshmi Purushothaman ◽  
Raphael E Cuomo ◽  
Cedric F Garland ◽  
Tim Ken Mackey

Abstract Background: Vitamin D has been identified as a potential protective factor the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). We expect to see a stronger association of ultraviolet B (UVB) exposure and CRC crude rates with increasing age since chronic vitamin D deficiency leads to sustained molecular changes that increase cancer risk. The DINOMIT (disjunction, initiation, natural selection, overgrowth, metastasis, involution, and transition) model postulates various stages of cancer development due to vitamin D deficiency and the associated latency period. The purpose of this study is to examine this age-dependent inverse relationship globally.Methods: In this ecological study, a series of linear and polynomial regression tests were performed between country specific UVB estimates adjusted for cloud cover and crude incidence rates of CRC for different age groups. Multiple linear regression was used to investigate the association between crude incidence rates of colorectal cancer and UVB estimate adjusting for urbanization, skin pigmentation, smoking, animal consumption, per capita GDP, and life expectancy. Statistical analysis was followed by geospatial visualization by producing choropleth maps.Results: The inverse relationship between UVB exposure and CRC crude rates was stronger in older age groups at the country level. Quadratic curve fitting was preferred, and these models were statistically significant for all age groups. The inverse association between crude incidence rates of CRC and UVB exposure was statistically significant for age groups above 45 years, after controlling for covariates.Conclusion: The age-dependent inverse association between UVB exposure and incidence of colorectal cancer exhibits a greater effect size among older age groups in global analyses. Studying the effect of chronic vitamin D deficiency on colorectal cancer etiology will help in understanding the necessity for population wide screening programs for vitamin D deficiency, especially in regions with inadequate UVB exposure. Further studies are required to assess the need for adequate public health programs such as selective supplementation and food fortification.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S105-S107
Author(s):  
P Jenkinson ◽  
N Plevris ◽  
M Lyons ◽  
S Siakavellas ◽  
I Arnott ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Peri-anal Crohn’s disease (pCD) significantly affects quality of life in patients with CD. The natural history of pCD in the era of biologic therapy is poorly understood. Perianal surgery includes examination under anaesthesia (EUA), drainage of peri-anal sepsis, seton instertion and fistula manipulation. EUA forms part of the standard of care at diagnosis of pCD and therefore can be used as a proxy for incidence of pCD. Methods CD patients were identified from the Lothian IBD registry, a physician validated registry of all IBD cases within Lothian which has been shown to be 94.3% complete. Prospectively collected coding data was used to identify peri-anal surgery, which was validated by review of the electronic health record. Biologic prescription data was extracted from the Lothian biologics database; a physician validated, prospectively collected registry. Time trend analysis was performed for the period 2000 to 2017 by 1) calculating annual incidence rates of peri-anal interventions for all patients with CD and estimating annual percentage change and 2) by calculating cumulative incidence of pCD and biologic prescription in newly diagnosed CD and 3) stratifying by era of diagnosis (Cohort 1: 2000–2008 and Cohort 2: 2009–2017. Results 2937 patients with CD were identified in the study period, with 1108 operations for pCD performed on 381 patients. Rates of surgery fell from 5.1 to 2.0 operations per 100 CD patients per year between 2000 and 2017 (p&lt;0.001) giving an annual percentage change of -3.4% (-4.9% to -1.9% 95% CI) (fig 1). 1753 new diagnoses of CD were made of whom 247 developed pCD. 5 year risk of pCD was 12.8% (9.5–16.6%) with no significant difference identified between cohort 1 (11.5%) and cohort 2 (13.8%) (p=0.116) (fig 2). The 5 year incidence of biologic prescription for patients with pCD increased from 11.2% in cohort 1 to 58.1% in cohort 2 (p&lt;0.001) (fig 3). Figure 1: Number of peri-anal interventions per 100 CD patients per year (multiple procedures per patient included). Figure 2: Kaplan Meier curves showing cumulative incidence of pCD stratified by era of diagnosis. Figure 3: Kaplan Meier curves showing cumulative incidence of biologic prescription in patients with CD stratified by era of diagnosis and presence of pCD. Conclusion The incidence of pCD remains unchanged over time. Although we cannot ascribe causality, the overall decrease in surgery for pCD has been paralleled by a marked increase in the use of biologic medication.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. CRC28
Author(s):  
Nina N Sanford ◽  
Pooja Dharwadkar ◽  
Caitlin C Murphy

Aim: To determine the impact of tumor sidedness on all-cause mortality for early- (age 18–49 years) and older-onset (age ≥50 years) colorectal cancer (CRC). Materials & methods: We conducted a retrospective study of 650,382 patients diagnosed with CRC between 2000 and 2016. We examined the associations of age, tumor sidedness (right colon, left colon and rectum) and all-cause mortality. Results: For early-onset CRC (n = 66,186), mortality was highest in the youngest age group (18–29 years), driven by left-sided colon cancers (vs 50–59 years, hazard ratio: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03–1.34). 5-year risk of death among 18–29-year-olds with left-sided colon cancer (0.42, 95% CI: 0.38, 0.46) was higher than all other age groups. Conclusion: Left-sided colon cancers are enriched in younger adults and may be disproportionately fatal.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15035-e15035
Author(s):  
T. Doi ◽  
K. Shirao ◽  
H. Uetake ◽  
K. Hatake ◽  
Y. Takahashi ◽  
...  

e15035 Background: BV was approved in Apr. 2007 in Japan in patients (pts) with advanced colorectal cancer. The number of pts in Japanese clinical trials were extremely limited. Therefore, the Japanese MHLW (Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare) required Chugai to initiate a PMS in all pts after the launch as a post-approval commitment to evaluate the incidence of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in Japanese pts. This is the first safety well controlled large cohort PMS in Asian pts. Objectives: To assess the use of BV in clinical practice and to evaluate the incidence of ADRs in Japanese pts. Methods: All pts who were treated by BV were registered before initial administration since the launch of BV in Jun. 2007. Follow-up period was 6 months. Results: Between Jun. and Nov. 2007, 2712 pts were registered from 574 institutions, and 2699 pts were eligible for the safety analysis. Pts characteristics were colon/rectum/colon and rectum cancer; 1580/1105/14, M/F; 1632/1067, median age; 61 (15–86), ECOG P.S.0/1/2/3; 2192/477/28/2, combination chemotherapy regimens with BV (FOLFOX / FOLFIRI /5-FU LV /IFL/Other); 1716/778/141/54/10, treatment lines (1st, 2nd, 3rd and more); 1238/1418/43. Of 2699 pts, ADRs were reported in 1589 pts (58.9%) with serious ADRs in 381 pts (14.1%). The common BV ADRs of interest were hypertension; 13.0%, hemorrhage; 11.3% (epitaxis;7.3%), proteinuria; 4.1%. Other ADRs were wound healing complications 1.2%, GI Perforation 0.9%, and thromboembolism (arterial/venous); 0.4 /1.3%. No Japanese-specific ADRs were observed. Conclusions: These safety results are consistent with those reported in International observational studies (BRiTE, Hedrick et al. JCO 2006;24(Jun 20 Suppl.):abstr 3536; First BEAT, Berry et al. JCO 2008;26(May 20 Suppl):abstr 4025). [Table: see text]


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