Future population exposures to unprecedented climatic risks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taikan Oki ◽  
Taichi Sano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
World Population ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Climatic Risk ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climatic Risks

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is causing shifts in the frequencies of extreme weather events. There is an urgent need to quantify future unprecedented risks from extreme temperatures and precipitation, and the geographic distributions of at-risk areas. Here, we define the rim of two-dimensional (2D) risk histograms for 20-year extreme temperatures and precipitation as a climatic risk boundary. We found that nearly a quarter of the world population in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and other regions of the world will transgress the climatic risk boundaries by the end of this century under RCP8.5 scenario, while under the future RCP2.6 scenario, only 5.8% of population will transgress the climatic risk boundaries. Some metropolitan areas, such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Tokyo, will also overstep the boundaries. While many large cities will remain within the climatic risk boundaries, they will still be exposed to unprecedented climatic risks in relation to the experiences of people in that region. This study will help refine public perceptions of extreme climatic risks and lead to more efficient policy making. In the future, unprecedented extreme weather risks should be properly considered in the impact assessments of climate change, and transfers of technologies and experiences gained in other regions to new at-risk regions should be supported to assist with adaptation to extreme climatic risks.

The Challenges of Climate Change and Food Security in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): From Deep Understanding to Quick Actions

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 422-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahaf M. Ajaj ◽  
Suzan M. Shahin ◽  
Mohammed A. Salem
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
World Population ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future

Climate change and global warming became a real concern for global food security. The world population explosion is a critical factor that results in enormous emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), required to cover the growing demands of fresh water, food, and shelter. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a significant oil-producing country, which is included in the list of 55 countries that produce at least 55% of the world’s GHGs and thus involved in the top 30 countries over the world with emission deficits. At the same time, the UAE is located in an arid region of the world, with harsh environmental conditions. The sharp population increases and the massive growth in the urbanization are primary sources, lead to further stresses on the agricultural sector. Thus, the future of the food production industry in the country is a challenging situation. Consequently, the primary objective of this work is to shed light on the current concerns related to climate change and food security, through describing the implications of climate change on the food production sector of the UAE. Tailored solutions that can rescue the future of food security in the country are also highlighted.

Smart Climate Change Adaptation in Rotterdam, Delta City of the Future

2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Dircke ◽  
A. Molenaar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
World Population ◽  
Management Game ◽  
The World ◽  
Design And Manufacturing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Smart Technologies

In 2025 the majority of the world population will live in flood prone delta cities. Delta City Rotterdam, with one of the biggest ports in the world, is dealing with the consequences of climate change in a very pro-active and smart way, turning these challenges into opportunities. Rotterdam wants to become one of the global leaders in water management and climate change adaptation, by using new and smart technologies and protecting its citizens against the future impacts of sea level rise and intensified rainfall by making Rotterdam completely “Climate Proof” by 2025. And also by developing its old city ports area by adding attractive waterfronts and knowledge centers like the RDM Campus (Research, Design and manufacturing), where education of future generations is combined with innovative and sustainable development of businesses and sciences, and with experiencing best practices. One of the major innovative and smart solutions for climate change adaptation discussed in this paper is called “Smart Flood Control Rotterdam”, the development of a serious flood management game for Rotterdam. All this knowledge and experiences are shared with other Delta Cities of the world, in the C40 “Connecting Delta Cities” network.

Foundations of Migration Economics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
George J. Borjas ◽  
Barry R. Chiswick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
International Migration ◽  
World Population ◽  
Country Of Birth ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
New Challenges

Migration these days is as topical as ever. A substantial and even increasing percentage of the world population live outside their country of birth. Climate change, conflicts, but also better education in developing countries will lead to more international migration, and will present new challenges to the societies in the sending and receiving countries. This volume offers insights into core topics of migration economics that have been pioneered by 2011 IZA Prize Laureates George Borjas and Barry Chiswick. The book shows migration economics at its best and underscores its high relevance for shaping the future of modern societies and labor markets.

scholarly journals Deadly Heat Exposure in an Urbanized World

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Lohrey ◽  
Camilo Mora ◽  
Diana Reckien ◽  
Felix Creutzig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
World Population ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan

Climate-change exposes an increasing share of the world population to potentially lethal heat, a threat accentuated by rapid urbanization. Here, we project occurrence of future deadly heat for urban agglomerations around the world until 2080 by using CMIP6 climate model projections of temperature and relative humidity, urbanization prospects and GDP projections from the SSP scenarios. We show that while nearly all regions within latitudes 35°S - 45°N experience an increase in days of deadly heat, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeastern Asia are particularly exposed, a trend exacerbated by rapid urbanization. By 2080, between 2.3 (59\%) (SSP1-2.6) and 3.0 (75\%) (SSP5-8.5) billion urban dwellers will experience more than 30 annual days of deadly heat, including 477 (66\%) - 546 (77\%) million in Sub-Saharan Africa and 988 (93\%) - 993 million (94\%) in South and South-Eastern Asia. The exposure to heat is highly unequal, with some of the poorest regions affected the most. Our results imply that jointly mitigating climate change, planning for well-ventilated cities, and combating poverty to enable economic access to air conditioning is required to avert a global-scale humanitarian crisis.

Teresa Mannion and the Emergence of Extreme Weather Culture in Ireland

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-150
Author(s):  
Diane Negra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Popular Culture ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Viral Video ◽  
Cultural Information ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Risk Coverage

In this article I consider how registers of weather media carry/convey cultural information, specifically how texts about extreme weather articulate with investment in a supposed post-recession restored normality marked by the Irish government's commitment to deregulated transnational capitalism. I maintain that, in a process of cross-cultural remediation, sensationalist codes of US weather media that discursively manage awareness of systemic climate problems are just starting to infiltrate the Irish broadcasting environment. In early December 2015 RTÉ’s Teresa Mannion covered a strong gale, Storm Desmond, amidst inclement conditions in Salthill, Co Galway. Modelling the kind of ‘body at risk’ coverage consummately performed by US Weather Channel personnel, Mannion could barely speak over the lashing rain and strong winds in a dramatic broadcast that quickly became a viral video. This article analyses the fascination with Mannion's piece and its memetic, and attends to the nature of the pleasure taken in her on-camera discomfiture and the breach of gendered territory committed by Mannion at a time when national popular culture in Ireland is under increased obligation to identify and explain climate change-related extreme weather.

Preparedness 3.0: Addressing the Future

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 728-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georges C. Benjamin
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Common Occurrence ◽  
Public Health Preparedness ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
State Sponsorship ◽  
The Future

ABSTRACTThe last 14 years has taught us that that we are facing a new reality; a reality in which public health emergencies are a common occurrence. Today, we live in a world with dangerous people without state sponsorship who are an enormous threat to our safety; one where emerging and reemerging infectious diseases are waiting to break out; a world where the benefits of globalization in trade, transportation, and social media brings threats to our communities faster and with a greater risk than ever before. Even climate change has entered into the preparedness equation, bringing with it the forces of nature in the form of extreme weather and its complications. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2015;9:728–729)

Projecting conflict risk following the Shared Socioeconomic pathways: what role for water stress and climate?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie de Bruin ◽  
Jannis Hoch ◽  
Nina von Uexkull ◽  
Halvard Buhaug ◽  
Nico Wanders
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
The Future ◽  
Conflict Risk

<p>The socioeconomic impacts of changes in climate-related and hydrology-related factors are increasingly acknowledged to affect the on-set of violent conflict. Full consensus upon the general mechanisms linking these factors with conflict is, however, still limited. The absence of full understanding of the non-linearities between all components and the lack of sufficient data make it therefore hard to address violent conflict risk on the long-term. </p><p>Although it is neither desirable nor feasible to make exact predictions, projections are a viable means to provide insights into potential future conflict risks and uncertainties thereof. Hence, making different projections is a legitimate way to deal with and understand these uncertainties, since the construction of diverse scenarios delivers insights into possible realizations of the future.  </p><p>Through machine learning techniques, we (re)assess the major drivers of conflict for the current situation in Africa, which are then applied to project the regions-at-risk following different scenarios. The model shows to accurately reproduce observed historic patterns leading to a high ROC score of 0.91. We show that socio-economic factors are most dominant when projecting conflicts over the African continent. The projections show that there is an overall reduction in conflict risk as a result of increased economic welfare that offsets the adverse impacts of climate change and hydrologic variables. It must be noted, however, that these projections are based on current relations. In case the relations of drivers and conflict change in the future, the resulting regions-at-risk may change too.   By identifying the most prominent drivers, conflict risk mitigation measures can be tuned more accurately to reduce the direct and indirect consequences of climate change on the population in Africa. As new and improved data becomes available, the model can be updated for more robust projections of conflict risk in Africa under climate change.</p>

Tending this Fragile Earth, Our Island Home: The Pope's Encyclical in Dialogue with Ecomimesis, a Design Model for Conservation Stewardship

2018 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 745-766
Author(s):  
Lillian C. Woo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Pollution ◽  
Anthropogenic Impact ◽  
Natural World ◽  
Design Solution ◽  
World Population ◽  
Natural Ecosystem ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The World

In the last fifty years, empirical evidence has shown that climate change and environmental degradation are largely the results of increased world population, economic development, and changes in cultural and social norms. Thus far we have been unable to slow or reverse the practices that continue to produce more air and water pollution, soil and ocean degradation, and ecosystem decline. This paper analyzes the negative anthropogenic impact on the ecosystem and proposes a new design solution: ecomimesis, which uses the natural ecosystem as its template to conserve, restore, and improve existing ecosystems. Through its nonintrusive strategies and designs, and its goal of preserving natural ecosystems and the earth, ecomimesis can become an integral part of stabilizing and rehabilitating our natural world at the same time that it addresses the needs of growing economies and populations around the world.

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

The Future of Water

2019 ◽  
pp. 227-232
Author(s):  
Edward B. Barbier
Keyword(s):  
Water Security ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystem ◽  
World Population ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Global Management ◽  
Market Signals ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The One

This concluding chapter looks at the future of water. There are two possible paths for managing water. First, if the world continues with inadequate governance and institutions, incorrect market signals, and insufficient innovations to improve efficiency and manage competing demands, most chronic water and scarcity problems will continue to worsen. The world will see a future of declining water security, freshwater ecosystem degradation, and increasing disputes and conflicts over remaining water resources. The alternative path to managing water is the one offered by this book. If, in anticipation of the coming decades of increasing water scarcity, humankind is able to develop appropriate governance and institutions for water management, instigate market and policy reforms, and address global management issues, then improved innovation and investments in new water technologies and better protection of freshwater ecosystems should secure sufficient beneficial water use for a growing world population.

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