scholarly journals Assessment and forecasting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Changsha, China: Based on a SEIAR Dynamic Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenting Zha ◽  
Nan Zhou ◽  
Guoqun Li ◽  
Weitong Li ◽  
Heng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Time To Peak ◽  
First Case ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Fourth Order Method ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: A new human coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 emerged during December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Cases have been exported to other Chinese cities and abroad, which may cause the global outbreak. Chang Sha is the nearest provincial capital city to Wuhan, the first case of COVID-19 in Changsha was diagnosed on January 21, 2020. Estimating the transmissibility and forecasting the trend of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 under the prevention and control measures in Changsha could inform evidence based decisions to policy makers. Methods: Data were collected from the Health Commission of Changsha and Hunan Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A Susceptible-exposed-infections/ asymptomatic- removed (SEIAR) model was established to simulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Changsha. Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18 were employed for the model simulation and prediction, while the curve fitting problem was solved by the Runge-Kutta fourth-order method, with a tolerance of 0.001. Results: In this study, we found that Rt was 2.05 from January 21 to 27 and reduced to 0.2 after January 27, 2020 in Changsha. The prediction results showed that when no obvious prevention and control measures were applied, the total number of patients in Changsha would reach the maximum (2.27 million) on the 79th day after the outbreak, and end in about 240 days; When measures have not been fully launched, the total number of patients would reach the maximum (1.60 million) on the 28th day after the outbreak, and end in about 110 days; When measures have been fully launched, the total number of patients would reach the maximum (234) on the 23rd day after the outbreak, and end in about 60 days. Conclusions: Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Changsha is in a controllable stage under current prevention and control measures, it is predicted that the cumulative patients would reach the maximum of 234 on February 12, and the outbreak would be over on 20 March in Changsha. With the fully implementation of prevention and control measures, it could effectively reduce the peak value, short the time to peak and duration of the outbreak.

scholarly journals Assessment of the prevention and control effects on the outbreak of COVID-19  in Hunan, China: Based on a SEIAR Dynamic Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-ting ZHA ◽  
Nan ZHOU ◽  
Guoqun LI ◽  
Weitong LI ◽  
Siyu ZHANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time To Peak ◽  
And Control ◽  
Berkeley Madonna ◽  
Fitting Problem ◽  
Peak Value

Abstract Background A new infectious disease, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been first reported during December 2019 in Wuhan, China, cases have been exported to other cities and abroad rapidly. Hunan is the neighboring province of Wuhan, a series of preventive and control measures were taken to control the outbreak of COVID-19. It is critical to assess these measures on the epidemic progression for the benefit of global expectation.Method: A Susceptible-exposed-infections/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model was established to evaluate the effect of preventive measures. Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18 was employed for the model simulation and prediction, and the curve-fitting problem was solved by Runge-Kutta fourth-order method.Results In this study, we found that Rt was 2.71 from January 21 to 27 and reduced to 0.21 after January 27, 2020. If measures have not been fully launched, patients in Hunan would reach the maximum (8.96 million) on March 25, 2020, and end in about 208 days; when measures have been fully launched, patients in Hunan would just reach the maximum (699) on February 9, 2020, and end in about 56 days, which was very closed to the actual situation.Conclusion The outbreak of COVID-19 in Hunan, China has been well controlled under current measures, full implementation of measures could reduce the peak value, short the time to peak and duration of the outbreak effectively, which could provide a reference for controlling of COVID-19 for other countries.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Open Fractures: a Retrospective Multi-centre Cohort Study in the Different Risk Periods of China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jialei Chen ◽  
Rong Luo ◽  
Gang Zhong ◽  
Ming Liu
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Direct Closure ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Risk Period ◽  
Level I ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on orthopaedic trauma worldwide, but the extent of this impact regarding the low-risk period is still unclear. This study aims to evaluate the epidemiology of open limbs fractures during the different risk periods and the effect of routine prevention and control measures.MethodsA retrospective multi-centre cohort study was conducted in three different level trauma centres. Three 60-day periods were analyzed: the high-risk period - 2020/1/24-2020/3/24, the low-risk period - 2021/1/24-2021/3/25, and the no-risk period as a control group for comparison - 2019/1/24-2019/3/25. Demographic data, medical history, and surgery and antibiotic therapy data at presentation were collected and evaluated.ResultsA total of 123 patients met the inclusion criteria. We observed a significant "J" shaped change in the total number of patients, with fewer patients in 2020 (n=34, -17%) and more in 2021 (n=48, +17%) compared to 2019 (n=41). However, fewer patients visited the level I centre in the low-risk period (82.9% 2019 vs. 70.6% 2020 vs. 56.3% 2021, P=0.024). Meanwhile, longer antibiotics therapy period (＞48 hours) were more prevalent in low-risk period (39% 2019 vs. 58.8% 2020 vs. 68.8% 2021, P=0.018). Regarding definitive closure type, increase in direct closure was observed in high-risk period (51% 2019 vs. 78.9% 2020 vs. 63.5% 2021, P=0.024). ConclusionDuring the high-risk period, the total number of patients was expected to decline, whereas in the low-risk period, the number may increase. They preferred the lower level II and III centre for patients during the pandemic rather than the higher level I centre. For surgeons, they were prone to direct closure and a more extended antibiotic therapy period. Routine prevention and control measures seem not adversely affect the treatment outcomes and process of open fractures.Trial registrationChiCTR, ChiCTR 2100046151. Registered 5 May 2021, http://www.chictr.org.cn/edit.aspx?pid=123490&htm=4.

Knowledge and Awareness of Dengue Fever

2018 ◽  
pp. 219-222
Author(s):  
Y. Arockia Suganthi ◽  
Chitra K. ◽  
J. Magelin Mary
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Standard Guideline ◽  
The World ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Dengue Prevention ◽  
And Control

Dengue fever is a painful mosquito-borne infection caused by different types of virus in various localities of the world. There is no particular medicine or vaccine to treat person suffering from dengue fever. Dengue viruses are transmitted by the bite of female Aedes (Ae) mosquitoes. Dengue fever viruses are mainly transmitted by Aedes which can be active in tropical or subtropical climates. Aedes Aegypti is the key step to avoid infection transmission to save millions of people in all over the world. This paper provides a standard guideline in the planning of dengue prevention and control measures. At the same time gives the priorities including clinical management and hospitalized dengue patients have to address essentially.

An evaluation model of 2019-nCoV prevention effectiveness based on immigration data in China (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiangsheng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Related Data ◽  
The Face ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

BACKGROUND As of the end of February 2020, 2019-nCoV is currently well controlled in China. However, the virus is now spreading globally. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of outbreak prevention and control measures in a region. METHODS A model is built for find the best fit for two sets of data (the number of daily new diagnosed, and the risk value of incoming immigration population). The parameters (offset and time window) in the model can be used as the evaluation of effectiveness of outbreak prevention and control. RESULTS Through study, it is found that the parameter offset and time window in the model can accurately reflect the prevention effectiveness. Some related data and public news confirm this result. And this method has advantages over the method using R0 in two aspects. CONCLUSIONS If the epidemic situation is well controlled, the virus is not terrible. Now the daily new diagnosed patients in most regions of China is quickly reduced to zero or close to zero. Chinese can do a good job in the face of huge epidemic pressure. Therefore, if other countries can do well in prevention and control, the epidemic in those places can also pass quickly.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Cheng ◽  
Zeyi Liu ◽  
Guangquan Cheng ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractBeginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.

scholarly journals Improving knowledge, attitudes and practice to prevent COVID-19 transmission in healthcare workers and the public in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rapeephan R. Maude ◽  
Monnaphat Jongdeepaisal ◽  
Sumawadee Skuntaniyom ◽  
Thanomvong Muntajit ◽  
Stuart D. Blacksell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Public ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
The Public ◽  
Educational Videos ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Key infection prevention and control measures to limit transmission of COVID-19 include social distancing, hand hygiene, use of facemasks and personal protective equipment. However, these have limited or no impact if not applied correctly through lack of knowledge, inappropriate attitude or incorrect practice. In order to maximise the impact of infection prevention and control measures on COVID-19 spread, we undertook a study to assess and improve knowledge, attitudes and practice among 119 healthcare workers and 100 general public in Thailand. The study setting was two inpatient hospitals providing COVID-19 testing and treatment. Detailed information on knowledge, attitudes and practice among the general public and healthcare workers regarding COVID-19 transmission and its prevention were obtained from a combination of questionnaires and observations. Results Knowledge of the main transmission routes, commonest symptoms and recommended prevention methods was mostly very high (> 80%) in both groups. There was lower awareness of aerosols, food and drink and pets as sources of transmission; of the correct duration for handwashing; recommended distance for social/physical distancing; and about recommended types of face coverings. Information sources most used and most trusted were the workplace, work colleagues, health workers and television. The results were used to produce a set of targeted educational videos which addressed many of these gaps with subsequent improvements on retesting in a number of areas. This included improvements in handwashing practice with an increase in the number of areas correctly washed in 65.5% of the public, and 57.9% of healthcare workers. The videos were then further optimized with feedback from participants followed by another round of retesting. Conclusions Detailed information on gaps in knowledge, attitudes and practice among the general public and healthcare workers regarding COVID-19 transmission and its prevention were obtained from a combination of questionnaires and observations. This was used to produce targeted educational videos which addressed these gaps with subsequent improvements on retesting. The resulting videos were then disseminated as a resource to aid in efforts to fight COVID-19 in Thailand and worldwide.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in South Korea: Proper timing for Easing Mask mandates after COVID-19 Vaccination

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yun-Jung Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Proper Timing ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract As of 25 July 2021, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported 1,422 new COVID-19 cases, 188,848 total cases, and 2.073 total deaths (1.10% fatality rates). Since the first SARS-CoV-2 case was reported, efforts to find a treatment and vaccine against COVID-19 have been widespread. Four vaccines are on the WHO’s emergency use listing and are approved of their usage; BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, AZD1222, and Ad26.COV2.S. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 need at least 14 days to achieve effectiveness. Thus, people should abide by prevention and control measures, including wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing. However, a lot of new cases were reported after vaccinations, as many people did not follow the prevention control measures before the end of the 14 days period. There is no doubt we need to break free from mask mandates. But let us not decide the timing in haste. Even if the mask mandates are eased, they should be changed depending on the number of reported cases, vaccinations, as well as prevention and control measures on how circumstances are changing under the influence of mutant coronavirus.

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