scholarly journals Computational analysis on Covid-19 transmission escalates into new imuuno-epidemiology considerations.

Author(s):  
Anthony Kyriakopoulos ◽  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Jinhui Li

Abstract Background For Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, the investigation of the heterogeneity of individual infectiousness is important due to the recorded widespread cross reactive immunity of general population that can alter transmission dynamics. We therefore aimed to understand how SARS-COV-2 transmits in the general population in relation to age.DesignUsing a sample of infected population with SARS-COV-2 in close geographical proximity to the initial Severe Advanced Respiratory Syndrome-1 (SARS-1) outbreak, we explored the association between infector’s age and dispersion (or heterogeneity) of individual infectiousness (k) in order to investigate the relatedness with the age of an individual’s capability to disperse SARS-COV-2.ResultsWe have found a negative association between k and increase of infector’s age. Significantly this becomes more evident for the age group of 20-60 years comparing with the infectors of younger age.ConclusionsNon pharmaceutical interventions can be effective to age group between 20-60 years whereas in youngsters and older patients containment of spreading must be made by other means to be effective. Immunity differences between age groups may reflect their differences in heterogeneity predicted by variance in dispersion parameter (k).

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony M. Kyriakopoulos ◽  
Shi Zhao

AbstractFor Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) the investigation of the heterogeneity of individual infectiousness becomes important due to the cross reactive immunity of general population. Using a sample of infected population with SARS-COV-2 in close geographical proximity to the initial Severe Advanced Respiratory Syndrome-1 (SARS-1) outbreak, we explored the association between infector’s age and dispersion (or heterogeneity) of individual infectiousness (k) in order to investigate the relatedness with the age of an individual’s capability to disperse SARS-COV-2. Interestingly, we find a negative association between k and increase of infector’s age. Significantly this becomes more evident for the age group of 20-60 years comparing with the infectors with younger age. This raises important immuno-epidemiology concerns for effectiveness of public health measures to contain the disease.One Sentence SummaryDispersion of Coronavirus Disease-19 in China differed with age.


1978 ◽  
Vol 132 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Hare

SummaryThe quarterly distribution of births of patients born in England and Wales 1921–60 and first admitted in 1970–75 was examined by decade of birth and by age at year of admission. For patients with schizophrenia and affective psychosis, the distribution varied: in the early decade (1921–30), and for older patients (45–54 years) the proportion of births in the fourth quarter of the year was high, compared with expectation from live births in the general population; but it became lower in succeeding decades and for younger age groups. No comparable change occurred for births of patients with neurosis or personality disorder.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 3982-3982
Author(s):  
Tatini Datta ◽  
Brian A Jonas ◽  
Aaron S Rosenberg ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Ann M Brunson ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The impact of time from diagnosis to chemotherapy initiation (time to treatment, TTT) for AML has been a topic of ongoing debate. A prior study reported that TTT ≥5 days adversely impacted overall survival in younger (<60 years of age), but not older (≥60 years of age), patients. However, subsequent studies found either no effect of TTT on overall survival, regardless of age, or an adverse impact of TTT on overall survival for both younger (>10 days) and older patients (>5 days). Prior data also showed no impact of TTT on early mortality. Given these conflicting findings, consensus on the impact of TTT on survival is lacking and warrants further study. Using prospectively collected population-based data, we analyzed a large cohort of adult AML patients to examine the effect of TTT on overall survival. Methods: Using data from the California Cancer Registry and Patient Discharge Dataset between 1999-2012, patients≥15years diagnosed with de novo AML and who received inpatient treatment between 1-90 days from diagnosis were identified (n=5337). Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with TTT>5 days vs 1-5 days with data presented as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The effect of TTT on overall and 60-day survival was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression with TTT (1-5, 6-10,>10 days)considered as a time-dependent variable. Patients were stratified by age group (<60,≥60 years) for all analyses.Multivariable models accounted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, number of comorbidities, marital status, neighborhood socioeconomic status, health insurance type, treatment at National Cancer Institute designated (NCI) vs non-NCI designated facility, use ofleukapheresis, and year of diagnosis. Results: Of the 2659 patients <60 years of age, 61.0% were treated within 5 days and 79.7% within 10 days of diagnosis, compared to 43.8% and 65.0%, respectively, of the 2678 patients≥60 years of age. Patients≥60 years were more likely to have 3+ comorbidities compared to the younger age group (43.3% vs 25.9%, P<0.001). The likelihood of TTT>5 days increased with age in both younger and older patients. Across both age groups, patients requiringleukapheresis(age<60: OR 0.19, CI 0.10-0.34; age≥60: OR 0.23, CI 0.12-0.45), treated at a non-NCI (vs NCI) center (age<60: OR 0.62, CI 0.52-0.73; age≥60: OR 0.64, CI 0.52-0.78) and with 1-2 (vs 0) comorbidities (age<60: OR 0.81, CI 0.67-0.98; age≥60: OR 0.69, CI 0.54-0.88) or 3+ (vs 0) comorbidities (age<60: OR 0.77, CI 0.62-0.97; age≥60: OR 0.52, CI 0.41-0.66) had a lower odds of TTT>5 days. Younger (age<60) African Americans (vs non-Hispanic whites) had a higher odds of TTT >5 days (OR 1.43, CI 1.04-1.97). Delaying chemotherapy >10 days (vs 1-5 days) adversely impacted overall survival in both age groups (age<60: HR 1.26, CI 1.11-1.43; age≥60: HR 1.17, CI 1.06-1.28) (Table). However, TTT of 6-10 days (vs 1-5 days) affected overall survival in young (age<60: HR 1.15, CI 1.02-1.31), but not older patients. A TTT of 6-10 days (vs 1-5 days) adversely impacted 60-day survival in both age groups (age<60: HR 1.70, CI 1.24-2.33; age≥60: HR 1.27, CI 1.05-1.54); 60-day survival results were similar for a TTT >10 days (vs 1-5 days) (Table). Conclusions: In a large cohort of patients with de novo AML, TTT of up to 10 days did not have a negative impact on overall survival in patients over the age of 60. In younger patients (<age 60), TTT >5 days was associated with decreased overall survival. Delaying chemotherapy over 5 days adversely impacted 60-day survival in both age groups. Our observation that patients were more likely to have a shorter TTT at non-NCI designated hospitals may relate to delays associated with transfer to or clinical trial enrollment at NCI centers. Our results suggest that waiting to get results of ancillary testing, such as cytogenetic and molecular mutation analyses, in order to inform treatment decisions for AML patients, may be feasible in some patients with AML. In an era of rapidly evolving prognostic and treatment landscapes for AML, our findings may have implications for personalized therapy, including novel targeted therapies, and clinical trial design for patients withAML. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2016 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 023-030
Author(s):  
Vimal Kumar ◽  
Pallak Arora ◽  
Manish Khatri ◽  
Shivani Sharma ◽  
Sumit Malhotra ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: To estimate the prevalence of periodontal disease with different indices. Methods & materials: The study population consisted of multistage stratified random sample of 1300 subjects from total population of district Ghaziabad. A cross-sectional study was conducted with multi stage stratified random sampling techniques to select the sample population. The subjects were divided into different age groups and the periodontal assessment was made on the basis of CPITN index and ESI Index. Results: The CPITN has shown to estimate incorrect periodontal disease prevalence because of its underestimation of the disease severity. A huge difference was noticed in the prevalence rate of periodontitis when subjects were examined with ESI index. Conclusion Periodontal disease was found to be highly prevalent in the study population and severity of disease increased with age. More number of subjects in younger age group were found to be healthy.


2020 ◽  
pp. 135245852091049 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelsi A Smith ◽  
Sarah Burkill ◽  
Ayako Hiyoshi ◽  
Tomas Olsson ◽  
Shahram Bahmanyar ◽  
...  

Background: People with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) have increased comorbid disease (CMD) risk. Most previous studies have not considered overall CMD burden. Objective: To describe lifetime CMD burden among pwMS. Methods: PwMS identified using Swedish registers between 1968 and 2012 ( n = 25,476) were matched by sex, age, and county of residence with general-population comparators ( n = 251,170). Prevalence, prevalence ratios (PRs), survival functions, and hazard ratios by MS status, age, and time period compared seven CMD: autoimmune, cardiovascular, depression, diabetes, respiratory, renal, and seizures. Results: The magnitude of the PRs for each CMD and age group decreased across time, with higher PRs in earlier time periods. Before 1990, younger age groups had higher PRs, and after 1990, older age groups had higher PRs. Male pwMS had higher burden compared with females. Overall, renal, respiratory, and seizures had the highest PRs. Before 2001, 50% of pwMS received a first/additional CMD diagnosis 20 years prior to people without MS, which reduced to 4 years after 2001. PwMS had four times higher rates of first/additional diagnoses in earlier time periods, which reduced to less than two times higher in recent time periods compared to people without MS. Conclusion: Swedish pwMS have increased CMD burden compared with the general population, but this has reduced over time.


2022 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Till Koopmann ◽  
Franziska Lath ◽  
Dirk Büsch ◽  
Jörg Schorer

Abstract Background Research on talent in sports aims to identify predictors of future performance. This study retrospectively investigated 1) relationships between young handball field players’ technical throwing skills and (a) their potential nomination to youth national teams and (b) their long-term career attainment 10 years later, and 2) associations between nomination status and career attainment. Results Results from retrospectively predicting nomination status and career attainment using logistic regression analyses show that technical throwing skills were partly able to explain players’ nomination status (Nagelkerke R2: females 9.2%, males 13.1%) and career attainment (Nagelkerke R2: 9.8% for female players). Here, variables throwing velocity and time on exercise showed statistically significant effects. In addition, nomination status and career attainment were shown to be associated using chi-square tests (w of .37 and .23 for female and male players, respectively) and nomination status as a predictor increased the prediction of career attainment remarkably (Nagelkerke R2: females 20.3%, males 12.7%). Conclusions Given these results, basic technical throwing skills may serve rather as a prerequisite in this age group on national level, emphasizing its importance already on lower levels and in younger age groups. Furthermore, advantages from entering the national TID system early especially for females are discussed.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Tran Kiem ◽  
Paolo Bosetti ◽  
Juliette Paireau ◽  
Pascal Crépey ◽  
Henrik Salje ◽  
...  

AbstractThe shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those most contributing to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Pallavi Panchu ◽  
Biju Bahuleyan ◽  
Rose Babu ◽  
Vineetha Vijayan

Background: Adipose tissue mainly visceral fat is said to be harmful and acts as a harbinger of metabolic disorders. A changing trend is seen in the recent decades with decreasing incidence of metabolic disorders in men even though visceral fat is said to be higher in them. Sex hormones may influence the deposition pattern of adipose tissue. The aim of this study was to observe effects of age on visceral fat and to know if the difference in gender pattern of fat distribution is maintained throughout life or disappears after menopause.Methods: This cross-sectional observational study was conducted in Thrissur on 385 apparently healthy subjects using Omron body composition analyser. Data was analysed using SPSS 20.0 version. The tests employed were NOVA, independent samples t-test.Results: In each age group, men had significantly higher visceral fat than females. As age increased, visceral fat increased significantly in both genders. In each group, except for younger age groups, VF levels were equal in men and women.Conclusions: Visceral fat is higher in men and this difference is seen in all age groups. As age increases, visceral fat levels also increased in men and women. The distribution of visceral fat is such that a greater number of men have high to very high levels at a younger age group, a feature observed in women only in the peri and post-menopausal age. Adoption of an active lifestyle coupled with healthy diet should protect against onset of metabolic disorders.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Purva Sarkate ◽  
Supriya Paranjpe ◽  
Nayana Ingole ◽  
Preeti Mehta

Introduction. Burden of HIV in pregnant women follows overall epidemic in India. Hence, it is imperative that prevalence calculations in this group be accurate. The present study was carried out to determine prevalence of HIV in pregnant women attending our hospital, to determine trend of HIV infection and to compare our results with reported prevalence. Methods. All pregnant women are routinely counselled for HIV testing using opt-out strategy. Year-wise positivity and trend were determined in these patients over a period of five years. The positivity in different age groups was determined. Results. 31,609 women were tested of which 279 (0.88%) were positive. Positivity showed a declining trend over study period and significant quadratic trend (biphasic, P<0.05) was observed. The positivity in older age group ≥35 years (1.64%) was significantly more than younger age groups (0.76% in 15–24-year and 0.94% in 25–34-year age group) (P=0.0052). Conclusion. A significant decline in HIV positivity was seen over the study period. Taking into account heterogeneous nature of HIV epidemic even within the same district, analysis at local levels especially using the prevention of parent to child transmission of HIV program data is critical for HIV programming and resource allocation.


2004 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Maria Bastos Lages ◽  
Badeia Marcos ◽  
Isabela Almeida Pordeus

Objective To evaluate the oral health of children with cleft lip and palate. Design DMFT (dmft) and DMFS (dmfs) were calculated on the basis of visual examination. Periodontal disease was assessed by classical clinical parameters: volume gain, bleeding, probing depth, loss of insertion, gingival recession. and calculus. Patients Seventy-eight individuals aged 1 to 32 years took part in the study. Results The dmft was 2.91 (± 3.99) in the 1- to 5-year-old age group and 2.77 (± 3.15) in the 6- to 12-year-old group. The DMFT averages for the age groups of 6 to 12 years, 13 to 18 years, and 19 to 32 years were 1.87 (± 1.78), 6.46 (± 3.11), and 13.62 (± 6.51), respectively. A total of 5.3% of individuals presented a healthy periodontium, and 86.6% presented with gingivitis and 8% presented with periodontitis. Conclusions The dental and periodontal condition of individuals with cleft lip and palate was similar to the general population in the region in which this study was conducted. Good preventive measures should result in improved oral health similar to the general population and should be emphasized.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document