scholarly journals Assessing the efficiency of COVID-19 NPIs in France: a retrospective study using a novel methodology

Author(s):  
Edouard Lansiaux ◽  
Jean-Luc Caut ◽  
Joachim Forget ◽  
Philippe P. Pébaÿ

Abstract After an initial phase of low reactivity from the French public health authorities, in the face of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in February 2020, various Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) were put in place (strict stay-at-home orders, followed by mandatory mask wearing in public places, curfews, partial lockdowns, etc.). In our knowledge, no study has independently assessed their respective effectiveness in an independent manner nor a synergistic manner. Our study has retrospectively studied (from 03/01/2020 to 30/01/2021), using metropolitan France data, the association strength (using normalized mutual information) as well as the linear correlation (using Pearson’s correlation) between more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs) and epidemiological markers of COVID-19. All mrNPIs were moderately associated with a viral reproduction rate decrease but were associated neither with a decrease in COVID-19 daily hospitalizations, nor with COVID-19 daily ICU admissions. This paper is only for academic discussion, conclusions need to be confirmed by further research. Data and codes were available here http://gitlab.com/covid-data-2/lockdown-and-curfew.

Author(s):  
Akshay Rajeshkumar ◽  
Senthilkumar Mathi

The article exposes a smart device designed for mitigating the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risk using the internet of things. A portable smart alerting device is designed for ensuring safety in public places which can alert people when the guidelines given by the government were not followed and alert health authorities when any abnormalities found. By doing so, the spread of this fatal disease can be stopped. The modules of the proposed system include the face mask detection module, social distance alerting module, crowd detection and analysis module, health screening module and health assessment module. The proposed system can be placed in any public entrances to monitor people without human intervention. Firstly, the human face images are captured for face mask check, then the crowd analysis of the particular entrance where the person is entering is performed, thereafter health screening of the person is done and the values were imported to the health assessment module to check for any abnormalities. Finally, after all the conditions were met the door is opened automatically. The smart device can be installed and effectively used in many scenarios such as malls, stores, crowded places and campuses to avoid the risk of spread of the coronavirus.


Inner Asia ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Caroline Humphrey

AbstractThis issue of Inner Asia ranges over diverse themes in the history and anthropology of Inner Asia. Lewis Mayo’s two-part article on ‘Illness, Threat, and Systems of Authority in Dunhuang’ is a notable contribution to the Journal because it relates history with anthropology in a theoretically innovative way. Medicine and politics,Mayo argues, are both forms of ‘event management’, and with this perspective we can see parallels between the management of disease at different historical periods in the same environment. The history of endemic disease in Dunhuang articulates a threefold linkage between sickness, geography and administrative power, in which each element helps to define and constitute the other. Describing the Dunhuang region involves constructing a history of the diseases to which that region has been prone, and the work that has been done in relation to them. On the one hand, modern public administration gives illness a geographical articulation, one that involves a distinctive local configuration of minerals and microorganisms. The geological and biological particularities of the Dunhuang area manifest themselves in the prevalence of certain kinds of diseases in the region, which public health authorities detect and seek to counteract. On the other, over a thousand years earlier, Dunhuang’s rulers were also scripting methods to keep the area safe from, threat, disease and instability. The battle against disease and misfortune was waged every year in an exorcism ceremony, but through analysis of particular late-9th-century texts Mayo relates an enhanced sense of threat to a specific political and institutional juncture – a particular combination of challenges to authority. In both cases, the prestige of physicians and political leaders rests in their calmness in the face of events, as well as their capacity to anticipate and prevent them. The medical manual, the gazetteer and the ritual guide all promise a mastery of events. Like the notion of the endemic disease, there is a regional profile to suffering, one that Mayo suggests is constituted by and helps constitute the local political order. The historical and anthropological analysis of illness must engage with the systems of authority whose actions and structures seek to regulate and eliminate it. In this sophisticated piece, Mayo argues that if we accept that our sufferings have an institutional form and often an institutional cause, we can grasp how the endless labour of reproducing co-ordination and regulation also generates its own structures of threat.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 602
Author(s):  
Angel Miramontes Carballada ◽  
Jose Balsa-Barreiro

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic is showing dramatic impact across the world. Public health authorities attempt to fight against the virus while maintaining economic activity. In the face of the uncertainty derived from the virus, all the countries have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions for limiting the mobility and maintaining social distancing. In order to support these interventions, some health authorities and governments have opted for sharing very fine-grained data related with the impact of the virus in their territories. Geographical science is playing a major role in terms of understanding how the virus spreads across regions. Location of cases allows identifying the spatial patterns traced by the virus. Understanding these patterns makes controlling the virus spread feasible, minimizes its impact in vulnerable regions, anticipates potential outbreaks, or elaborates predictive risk maps. The application of geospatial analysis to fine-grained data must be urgently adopted for optimal decision making in real and near-real time. However, some aspects related to process and map sensitive health data in emergency cases have not yet been sufficiently explored. Among them include concerns about how these datasets with sensitive information must be shown depending on aspects related to data aggregation, scaling, privacy issues, or the need to know in advance the particularities of the study area. In this paper, we introduce our experience in mapping fine-grained data related to the incidence of the COVID-19 during the first wave in the region of Galicia (NW Spain), and after that we discuss the mentioned aspects.


Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao

BACKGROUND Adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can affect COVID-19 growing trends, decrease the number of infected cases, and thus reduce mortality and healthcare demand. Almost all countries in the world have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread rate of COVID-19; however, it is unclear what are differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among these countries. OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. METHODS This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. RESULTS The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events. CLINICALTRIAL NA


2021 ◽  
pp. 109019812110144
Author(s):  
Soon Guan Tan ◽  
Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar ◽  
Hwee Lin Wee

This study aims to describe Facebook users’ beliefs toward physical distancing measures implemented during the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic using the key constructs of the health belief model. A combination of rule-based filtering and manual classification methods was used to classify user comments on COVID-19 Facebook posts of three public health authorities: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States, Public Health England, and Ministry of Health, Singapore. A total of 104,304 comments were analyzed for posts published between 1 January, 2020, and 31 March, 2020, along with COVID-19 cases and deaths count data from the three countries. Findings indicate that the perceived benefits of physical distancing measures ( n = 3,463; 3.3%) was three times higher than perceived barriers ( n = 1,062; 1.0%). Perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 ( n = 2,934; 2.8%) was higher compared with perceived severity ( n = 2,081; 2.0%). Although susceptibility aspects of physical distancing were discussed more often at the start of the year, mentions on the benefits of intervention emerged stronger toward the end of the analysis period, highlighting the shift in beliefs. The health belief model is useful for understanding Facebook users’ beliefs at a basic level, and it provides a scope for further improvement.


Author(s):  
Thomas Plümper ◽  
Eric Neumayer

AbstractBackgroundThe Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany.MethodsCross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts.ResultsWe find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district’s population.ConclusionsOur results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany’s public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liliana Cruz Spano ◽  
Caroline Gastaldi Guerrieri ◽  
Lays Paula Bondi Volpini ◽  
Ricardo Pinto Schuenck ◽  
Jaqueline Pegoretti Goulart ◽  
...  

Abstract Background This study describes the investigation of an outbreak of diarrhea, hemorrhagic colitis (HC), and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) at a daycare center in southeastern Brazil, involving fourteen children, six staff members, six family members, and one nurse. All bacterial and viral pathogens detected were genetically characterized. Results Two isolates of a strain of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) serotype O111:H8 were recovered, one implicated in a case of HUS and the other in a case of uncomplicated diarrhea. These isolates had a clonal relationship of 94% and carried the stx2a and eae virulence genes and the OI-122 pathogenicity island. The EHEC strain was determined to be a single-locus variant of sequence type (ST) 327. EHEC isolates were resistant to ofloxacin, doxycycline, tetracycline, ampicillin, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and intermediately resistant to levofloxacin and ciprofloxacin. Rotavirus was not detected in any samples, and norovirus was detected in 46.7% (14/30) of the stool samples, three of which were from asymptomatic staff members. The noroviruses were classified as the recombinant GII.4 Sydney [P16] by gene sequencing. Conclusion In this outbreak, it was possible to identify an uncommon stx2a + EHEC O111:H8 strain, and the most recent pandemic norovirus strain GII.4 Sydney [P16]. Our findings reinforce the need for surveillance and diagnosis of multiple enteric pathogens by public health authorities, especially during outbreaks.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Bedoya-Pérez ◽  
Michael P. Ward ◽  
Max Loomes ◽  
Iain S. McGregor ◽  
Mathew S. Crowther

AbstractShortly after the enactment of restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19, various local government and public health authorities around the world reported an increased sighting of rats. Such reports have yet to be empirically validated. Here we combined data from multi-catch rodent stations (providing data on rodent captures), rodent bait stations (providing data on rodent activity) and residents’ complaints to explore the effects of a six week lockdown period on rodent populations within the City of Sydney, Australia. The sampling interval encompassed October 2019 to July 2020 with lockdown defined as the interval from April 1st to May 15th, 2020. Rodent captures and activity (visits to bait stations) were stable prior to lockdown. Captures showed a rapid increase and then decline during the lockdown, while rodent visits to bait stations declined throughout this period. There were no changes in the frequency of complaints during lockdown relative to before and after lockdown. There was a non-directional change in the geographical distribution of indices of rodent abundance suggesting that rodents redistributed in response to resource scarcity. We hypothesize that lockdown measures initially resulted in increased rodent captures due to sudden shortage of human-derived food resources. Rodent visits to bait stations might not show this pattern due to the nature of the binary data collected, namely the presence or absence of a visit. Relocation of bait stations driven by pest management goals may also have affected the detection of any directional spatial effect. We conclude that the onset of COVID-19 may have disrupted commensal rodent populations, with possible implications for the future management of these ubiquitous urban indicator species.


Author(s):  
Vladimir Reshetnikov ◽  
Oleg Mitrokhin ◽  
Elena Belova ◽  
Victor Mikhailovsky ◽  
Maria Mikerova ◽  
...  

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern, and as a response, public health authorities started enforcing preventive measures like self-isolation and social distancing. The enforcement of isolation has consequences that may affect the lifestyle-related behavior of the general population. Quarantine encompasses a range of strategies that can be used to detain, isolate, or conditionally release individuals or populations infected or exposed to contagious diseases and should be tailored to circumstances. Interestingly, medical students may represent an example of how the COVID-19 pandemic can form new habits and change lifestyle behaviors. We conducted a web-based survey to assess changes in lifestyle-related behavior of self-isolated medical students during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then we analyzed the sanitary-hygienic regulations of the Russian Federation to determine the requirements for healthy buildings. Results showed that during the pandemic, the enforcement of isolation affects medical students’ lifestyle-related behavior and accompanies an increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) and healthy buildings are cutting-edge factors in preventing COVID-19 and NCDs. The Russian sanitary-hygienic regulations support improving this factor with suitable requirements for ventilation, sewage, waste management, and disinfection. Herein, assessing isolation is possible through the hygienic self-isolation index.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Leiras ◽  
A Martins

Abstract Background Articulation between Civil Protection and Public Health authorities is of paramount importance to control, reduce and prevent threats to the health of the population in situations of crisis or catastrophes. National Civil Protection Authority produces Emergency Plans which describe the role of every stakeholder in emergency situations. Role and importance of Public Health and Public Health Authorities is not always present or well described and known amongst stakeholders. Methods Data was collected from all Districtal Emergency Plans (n = 18). Each document was analysed considering time frame, refences to Public Health and Health Authorities, definition of roles, communication channels, coordination and inclusion of intersectoral communication flow. Quantitative analysis included absolute and relative frequencies and qualitative analysis to all parts related to the terms “Public Health” and “Health Authority”. Each document was reviewed by 2 independent researchers. Results From 18 Districtal Emergency Plans (DEP) analysed, 94,4% (n = 17) had references to Public Health, but none referred the role of Public Health Officers. Only 16,7% referred to Health Authorities, although 94,4% mentioned the law 135/2013, defining the role and attributes of Health Authority. In 72,2%, coordination of Public Health Measures was attributed to the National Medical Emergency Institute. Epidemiological surveillance and Public Health Emergencies were referred in 55,6%, and attributed to the Regional Administration of Health. Conclusions Public Health Authorities and Public Health Medical Officers role in articulation with National Civil Protection Authority in emergency situations lacks severely, with this role being replaced by other entities. This is of great concern regarding management and control of diseases, particularly communicable diseases. Key messages Public Health Authorities lack the necessary involvement in Emergency Plans and emergency situations. Public health measures are coordinated by other entities rather than Public Health Authorities.


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