scholarly journals Changing Clusters of Indian States with respect to number of Cases of COVID-19 using incrementalKMN Method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabinder Kumar Prasad ◽  
Rosy Sarmah ◽  
Subrata Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
The Other ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Indian States ◽  
High Risk Category ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) incidence in India is currently experiencing exponential rise with apparent spatial variation in growth rate and doubling time. We classify the states into five clusters with low to high-risk category and identify how the different states moved from one cluster to the other since the onset of the first case on $30^{th}$ January 2020 till the end of $15^{th}$ September 2020. We cluster the Indian states into $5$ groups using incrementalKMN clustering \cite{b1}. We observed and comment on the changing scenario of the formation of the clusters starting from before lockdown, through lockdown and the various unlock phases.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 epidemic curtailment strategies in selected Indian states: an analysis by reproduction number and doubling time with incidence modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Mitra ◽  
Abhijit P Pakhare ◽  
Adrija Roy ◽  
Ankur Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
State Government ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Likelihood Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The Government of India in networks with its state government has implemented the epidemic curtailment strategies inclusive of case-isolation, quarantine and lockdown in response to ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak . In this manuscript we attempt to estimate the effect of these steps across ten Indian states using crowd-sourced data. The chosen transmission parameters are -reproduction number (R0), doubling time and growth rate during the early epidemic phase (15 days into lockdown) and 30 days into lockdown (23rd April 2020) through maximum likelihood approach. The overall analysis shows the decreasing trends in reproductive numbers and growth rate (with few exceptions) and incremental doubling time. The curtailment strategies employed by the Indian government seemed to be effective in reducing the transmission parameters of the COVID-19 epidemic. The effective reproductive numbers are still higher above the threshold of 1 and the resultant absolute numbers tend to be exponentiating fundamentally. The curtailment strategy thus may take into account these findings while formulating further course of actions.

The Political Impact of Affective Polarization: How Partisan Animus Shapes COVID-19 Attitudes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Druckman ◽  
Samara Klar ◽  
Yanna Krupnikov ◽  
Matthew Levendusky ◽  
John B. Ryan
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
American Politics ◽  
The Other ◽  
Policy Discourse ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Citizens Attitudes

Affective polarization is a defining feature of 21st century American politics—partisans harbor considerable dislike and distrust of those from the other party. Does this animus have consequences for citizens’ opinions? Such effects would highlight not only the consequences of polarization, but also shed new light onto how citizens form preferences more generally. Normally, this question is intractable, but the outbreak of the novel coronavirus allows us to answer it. We find that affective polarization powerfully shapes citizens’ attitudes about the pandemic, as well as the actions they have taken in response to it. However, these effects are conditional on the local severity of the outbreak, as the effects decline in areas with high caseloads—threat vitiates partisan reasoning. Our results clarify that closing the divide on important issues requires not just policy discourse but also attempts to reduce inter-partisan hostility.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
Houssine Zine ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Stochastic Time

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results.

scholarly journals Epstein-Barr Virus Versus Novel Coronavirus-Induced Hemophagocytic Lymphohistocytosis: The Uncharted Waters

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 232470962095010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rawan Amir ◽  
Asim Kichloo ◽  
Jagmeet Singh ◽  
Ravinder Bhanot ◽  
Michael Aljadah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Infections ◽  
Epstein Barr Virus ◽  
Genetic Mutations ◽  
High Grade ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Barr Virus ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epstein Barr ◽  
Virus Versus ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Hemophagocytic lymphohistocytosis (HLH) is a hyperinflammatory syndrome characterized by fever, hepatosplenomegaly, and pancytopenia. It may be associated with genetic mutations or viral/bacterial infections, most commonly Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and cytomegalovirus. As for the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019), the cytokine storm it triggers can theoretically lead to syndromes similar to HLH. In this article, we report a case of a 28-year-old female who presented with high-grade fevers, found to have both SARS-CoV-2 and EBV infections, and eventually began to show signs of early HLH. To our knowledge, this is the first case reported in literature that raises the possibility of SARS-CoV-2–related HLH development.

scholarly journals The ameliorative effect of selenium on Azolla caroliniana grown under UV-B stress

2015 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.M. Mostafa ◽  
A.M.A. Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Protein Content ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
The Other ◽  
Total Glutathione ◽  
Nutrient Media ◽  
Relative Growth ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Ameliorative Effect ◽  
Glutathione Redox

Exposure ofAzollaplants to UV-B radiation for 6 h resulted in a decrease in biomass and relative growth rate (RGR), which coincided with an increase in doubling time (DT) as compared with the control. Also, the protein content decreased. On the other hand, hydrogen peroxyde (H2O2) and malondialdehyde (MDA) accumulated significantly in UV-treatedAzollaplants. Conversely, the addition of selenium (Se) at 1 ppm resulted in a significant increase in biomass and protein content of untreated and UV-treatedAzollaplants, and a significant reduction in both H2O2and MDA. Moreover, the addition of Se to UV-treated and untreatedAzollaplants resulted in a significant increase in total ascorbate and total glutathione (GSH) contents compared with the control and UV-stressedAzollaplants. Also, glutathione redox potential (GSH/TG) increased significantly in UV-treatedAzollaplants in the presence of Se. There also was a significant increase (38%) in ascorbate peroxidase (APX) activity in UV-treated plants compared with the control. APX activity in the presence of Se did not change significantly compared with the control. Glutathione reductase (GR) activity increased significantly in UV-treatedAzolla, while glutathione peroxidase (GSH-PX) activity did not. On the other hand, both GSH-PX and GR activity in untreated and UV-treatedAzollaplants were significantly enhanced by the application of Se to the nutrient media at a concentration of 1 ppm. Therefore, we can conclude that Se protectsAzollaplants from UV-B stress.

scholarly journals Comparison of Four SARS-CoV-2 Neutralization Assays

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Lydia Riepler ◽  
Annika Rössler ◽  
Albert Falch ◽  
André Volland ◽  
Wegene Borena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vesicular Stomatitis Virus ◽  
Neutralizing Antibodies ◽  
The Other ◽  
In Vitro Assays ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Effective Protection ◽  
Vaccine Candidates ◽  
Vesicular Stomatitis ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Neutralizing antibodies are a major correlate of protection for many viruses including the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Thus, vaccine candidates should potently induce neutralizing antibodies to render effective protection from infection. A variety of in vitro assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies has been described. However, validation of the different assays against each other is important to allow comparison of different studies. Here, we compared four different SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays using the same set of patient samples. Two assays used replication competent SARS-CoV-2, a focus forming assay and a TCID50-based assay, while the other two assays used replication defective lentiviral or vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV)-based particles pseudotyped with SARS-CoV-2 spike. All assays were robust and produced highly reproducible neutralization titers. Titers of neutralizing antibodies correlated well between the different assays and with the titers of SARS-CoV-2 S-protein binding antibodies detected in an ELISA. Our study showed that commonly used SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays are robust and that results obtained with different assays are comparable.

scholarly journals The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. e030922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narani Sivayoham ◽  
Lesley A Blake ◽  
Shafi E Tharimoopantavida ◽  
Saad Chughtai ◽  
Adil N Hussain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prediction Rule ◽  
Clinical Prediction Rule ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Suspected Sepsis ◽  
Suspected Infection ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
High Risk Category ◽  
Component Scores

ObjectiveTo derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis.DesignRetrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data.SettingED.ParticipantsPatients aged ≥18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted.Primary outcome measureIn-hospital all-cause mortality.MethodThe data were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The simplified-Mortality in Severe Sepsis in the ED score and quick-SOFA scores, refractory hypotension and lactate were collectively termed ‘component scores’ and cumulatively termed the ‘Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score’. Each patient in the derivation cohort received a score (0–3) for each component score. The REDS score ranged from 0 to 12. The component scores were subject to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the REDS and the components scores were constructed and their cut-off points identified. Scores above the cut-off points were deemed high-risk. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk category of the REDS score and component scores were compared. The REDS score was internally validated.Results2115 patients of whom 282 (13.3%) died in hospital. Derivation cohort: 1078 patients with 140 deaths (13%). The AUROC curve with 95% CI, cut-off point and sensitivity for mortality (95% CI) of the high-risk category of the REDS score were: derivation: 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80); ≥3; 85.0 (78 to 90.5). Validation: 0.74 (0.71 to 0.76); ≥3; 84.5 (77.5 to 90.0). The AUROC curve and the sensitivity for mortality of the REDS score was better than that of the component scores. Specificity and mortality rates for REDS scores of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥7 were 54.8%, 88.8% and 96.9% and 21.8%, 36.0% and 49.1%, respectively.ConclusionThe REDS score is a simple and objective score to risk-stratify ED patients with suspected sepsis.

scholarly journals Does the novel coronavirus 2019 like heart more than the other family members of coronaviruses?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-157
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mostafa Ansari Ramandi ◽  
Mohammadreza Baay ◽  
Nasim Naderi
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Coronavirus Infections

The disaster due to the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) around the world has made investigators enthusiastic about working on different aspects of COVID-19. However, although the pandemic of COVID-19 has not yet ended, it seems that COVID-19 compared to the other coronavirus infections (the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome [MERS] and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome [SARS]) is more likely to target the heart. Comparing the previous presentations of the coronavirus family and the recent cardiovascular manifestations of COVID-19 can also help in predicting possible future challenges and taking measures to tackle these issues.

scholarly journals Web Application for Statistical Tracking and Predicting the Evolution of Active Cases with the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-74
Author(s):  
Iulia Clitan ◽  
◽  
Adela Puscasiu ◽  
Vlad Muresan ◽  
Mihaela Ligia Unguresan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Novel ◽  
End User ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Since February 2020, when the first case of infection with SARS COV-2 virus appeared in Romania, the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic continues to have an ascending allure, reaching in September 2020 a second wave of infections as expected. In order to understand the evolution and spread of this disease over time and space, more and more research is focused on obtaining mathematical models that are able to predict the evolution of active cases based on different scenarios and taking into account the numerous inputs that influence the spread of this infection. This paper presents a web responsive application that allows the end user to analyze the evolution of the pandemic in Romania, graphically, and that incorporates, unlike other COVID-19 statistical applications, a prediction of active cases evolution. The prediction is based on a neural network mathematical model, described from the architectural point of view.

Blood Alcohol and Social Drinking

1979 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 180-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. G. Flanagan ◽  
G. K. Lochridge ◽  
J.G. Henry ◽  
A. J. Hadlow ◽  
P. A. Hamer
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Food Intake ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Blood Alcohol ◽  
Social Functions ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
High Risk Category ◽  
Social Drinking ◽  
Blood Alcohol Levels ◽  
Considerable Individual Variation

A field study was carried out using 131 volunteers in an attempt to relate alcohol consumption at 12 social functions with actual blood alcohol levels under reasonably controlled conditions. Food, taken at 7 of these functions, caused an unpredictable delay in alcohol absorption and some subjects had blood alcohol figures approaching recently defined ‘high risk’ levels. Better correlation was found at those functions without food intake, but again there was considerable individual variation. In 36 subjects samples were taken on the following morning. About 12 per cent showed significantly raised levels but all were under the legal limit for driving. The authors are concerned that other factors in addition to the alcohol level should be considered before a driver is placed in the ‘high risk’ category.

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