The Roadmap to Keeping Oregon Open Part I: Establishing the COVID-19 Capacity for Testing and Contact Tracing Required to Keep the State Safe and Open

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Y. Clark ◽  
Robert Parker ◽  
Tim Duy
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Asma A. Rahim ◽  
Sujina C. Muthukutty ◽  
Sabitha R. Jacob ◽  
Rini Ravindran ◽  
Jayakrishnan Thayyil ◽  
...  

Kozhikode district of North Kerala, India witnessed an outbreak of Nipah virus (NiV) in the month of May 2018. Two adjacent districts were affected leaving 17 patients dead out of the 19 confirmed. United Nations and WHO lauded the expeditious response of the state’s health system in the diagnosis and containment of the outbreak which was unprecedented. The authors being in the contact tracing and surveillance operation district team, had kept a record of timeline of events and actions at the state level, compiled the news clippings and tracked events. In the absence of an end‑of‑epidemic report for reference, these records served as a valuable tool for the present review. We used the Management science for health frame work tool (MSH framework) to evaluate the district and state coordinated actions which helped in curbing the outbreak. Though NiV outbreak in South India (2018) had similar epidemiological features to previous disease outbreaks, it stands out as the one to be detected and contained in a short span of time. As health personnel working in the government medical college of an affected district and directly involved in contact tracing operations and containment measures, exploring and sharing, what worked and how, in the context of multidisciplinary response and recovery attempts of the outbreak in the state may be beneficial to public health personnel and policy makers. This management framework may be replicated in the national and international context, particularly in South East Asian region under threat of emerging viral infections like COVID-19, lacking specific epidemic management frameworks for outbreak response and containment.





2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S31-S31
Author(s):  
Charles E Marvil ◽  
Anne Piantadosi ◽  
Aaron Preston ◽  
Andrew Webster ◽  
Jeannette Guarner ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Healthcare-associated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is relatively rare and may be difficult to quantify. We performed an epidemiological investigation and SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing to define the source and scope of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a cluster of hospitalized patients Methods We conducted an outbreak investigation after identifying hospital-onset COVID-19 in patients receiving hemodialysis in January 2021. Electronic medical record review, staff interviews, review of employee schedule logs, and contact tracing were used to determine the outbreak timeline and identify exposed healthcare workers (HCW). SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced from residual nasopharyngeal swab samples from 6 individuals in the outbreak investigation and compared to sequences from 14 patients in the same facility, 54 patients in nearby facilities, and 375 publicly available sequences from individuals in the state of Georgia. Results Eight patients with hospital-onset COVID-19 were identified (Cases 1-8); all were receiving hemodialysis and 5 were bedded in a single inpatient nursing unit. Among 53 potentially exposed HCW, 29 underwent testing and 5 were positive (Cases 9-13). The suspected index patient (Case 1) was found to have been coughing and inconsistently wearing a mask during a hemodialysis session on the same day that 6 of the 7 other patients and one HCW (Case 10) were in close proximity in the hemodialysis unit (Figure 1A). Further investigation revealed lack of use of curtain barriers in the hemodialysis bays, inconsistent use of personal protective equipment by HCW, and overcrowding of staff breakrooms. Among the 6 samples available for phylogenetic analysis, SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 5 (4 patients and 1 HCW, Case 9) were identical and at least 4 SNPs removed from the next closest sequence in this study, supporting a transmission cluster (Figure 1B). The sequence from the sixth sample (HCW Case 10) was phylogenetically distinct, indicating an independent source of infection. Figure 1 Exposure and onset of symptoms for the 6 cases in the outbreak with samples available for SARS-CoV-2 sequencing. Four patients with hospital-onset COVID-19 (Cases 1-4) were receiving hemodialysis and bedded in a single inpatient nursing unit, with two exposed healthcare workers (Cases 9-10). (A). Phylogenetic tree of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from individuals in this outbreak investigation (red), as well as 14 patients in the same facility and 54 patients in nearby facilities between 12/12/2020 and 1/13/2021 (blue). These were aligned with 375 publicly available sequences from individuals in the state of Georgia from the same time period using MAFFT. A maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree was generated under a generalized time-reversible model with 1,000 bootstrap replicates using IQtree v2.0.3 and visualized and annotated using Interactive Tree of Life (iTOL) v4 (B). Conclusion Lack of appropriate respiratory hygiene led to SARS-CoV-2 transmission during a single hemodialysis session, based on clinical and genomic epidemiology. Use of appropriate PPE for both patients and HCW and other infection prevention measures are critical to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures



Author(s):  
Narendra Kumar ◽  
Shafeeq K S Hameed ◽  
Giridhara R Babu ◽  
Manjunatha M Venkataswamy ◽  
Prameela Dinesh ◽  
...  

Background: In this report, we describe the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection, specifically examining how the symptomatic persons drove the transmission in the state of Karnataka, India, during the lockdown phase. Methods: The study included all the cases reported from March 8 to May 31, 2020 in the state. Any person with history of international or domestic travel from high burden states, those presenting with Influenza-like or Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and high-risk contacts of COVID19 cases, who were SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive were included. Detailed analysis based on contact tracing data available from line-list of the state surveillance unit was performed using cluster analysis software package. Findings: Amongst the 3404 COVID-19 positive cases, 3096 (91%) were asymptomatic while 308 (9%) were symptomatic. Majority of the asymptomatic cases were in the age range of 16-50 years while symptomatic cases were between 31-65 years. Most of those affected were males. Cluster analysis of 822 cases indicated that the secondary attack rate, size of the cluster (dispersion) and occurrence of overt clinical illness is significantly higher when the index case in a cluster was symptomatic compared to an asymptomatic. Interpretation: Our findings indicate that both asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases transmit the infection; however, the main driving force behind the spread of infection within the state was significantly higher from symptomatic cases. This has major implications for policies related to testing. Active search for symptomatic cases, subjecting them to testing and treatment should be prioritized for containing the spread of COVID-19.



Author(s):  
P. Branco ◽  
L. Fiolhais ◽  
M. Goulão ◽  
P. Martins ◽  
P. Mateus ◽  
...  

Oblivious Transfer (OT) is a fundamental primitive in cryptography, supporting protocols such as Multi-Party Computation and Private Set Intersection (PSI), that are used in applications like contact discovery, remote diagnosis and contact tracing. Due to its fundamental nature, it is utterly important that its execution is secure even if arbitrarily composed with other instances of the same, or other protocols. This property can be guaranteed by proving its security under the Universal Composability model. Herein, a 3-round Random Oblivious Transfer (ROT) protocol is proposed, which achieves high computational efficiency, in the Random Oracle Model. The security of the protocol is based on the Ring Learning With Errors assumption (for which no quantum solver is known). ROT is the basis for OT extensions and, thus, achieves wide applicability, without the overhead of compiling ROTs from OTs. Finally, the protocol is implemented in a server-class Intel processor and four application-class ARM processors, all with different architectures. The usage of vector instructions provides on average a 40% speedup. The implementation shows that our proposal is at least one order of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art, and is suitable for a wide range of applications in embedded systems, IoT, desktop, and servers. From a memory footprint perspective, there is a small increase (16%) when compared to the state-of-the-art. This increase is marginal and should not prevent the usage of the proposed protocol in a multitude of devices. In sum, the proposal achieves up to 37k ROTs/s in an Intel server-class processor and up to 5k ROTs/s in an ARM application-class processor. A PSI application, using the proposed ROT, is up to 6.6 times faster than related art.



2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chitra Pattabiraman ◽  
Farhat Habib ◽  
Harsha PK ◽  
Risha Rasheed ◽  
Vijayalakshmi Reddy ◽  
...  

Karnataka, a state in south India, reported its first case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection on March 8, 2020, more than a month after the first case was reported in India. We used a combination of contact tracing and genomic epidemiology to trace the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the state up until May 21, 2020 (1578 cases). We obtained 47 full genomes of SARS-CoV-2 which clustered into six lineages (Pangolin lineages-A, B, B.1, B.1.1, B.4, and B.6). The lineages in Karnataka were known to be circulating in China, Southeast Asia, Iran, Europe and other parts of India and are likely to have been imported into the state both by international and domestic travel. Our sequences grouped into 12 contact clusters and 11 cases with no known contacts. We found nine of the 12 contact clusters had a single lineage of the virus, consistent with multiple introductions and most (8/12) were contained within a single district, reflecting local spread. In most of the twelve clusters, the index case (9/12) and spreaders (8/12) were symptomatic. Of the 47 sequences, 31 belonged to the B/B.6 lineage, including seven of eleven cases with no known contact, indicating ongoing transmission of this lineage in the state. Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka suggests multiple introductions of the virus followed by local transmission in parallel with ongoing viral evolution. This is the first study from India combining genomic data with epidemiological information emphasizing the need for an integrated approach to outbreak response.



2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad

AbstractOBJECTIVESWith declining numbers of COVID-19 cases in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures were gradually being lifted. The risk of an increase in the number of cases, however, cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help to control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing.METHODSWe developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the State of São Paulo.RESULTSFor a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contact tracing strategy is performed.CONCLUSIONContact tracing of symptomatic individuals may be a potential alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for a massive testing strategy.



2020 ◽  
Author(s):  

This GSoD In Focus aims at providing a brief overview of the state of democracy in Europe at the end of 2019, prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, and then assesses some of the preliminary impacts that the pandemic has had on democracy in the region in the last 10 months. Key facts and findings include: • The COVID-19 pandemic arrived in a largely democratic Europe. Only 4 countries in the region (10 per cent) are not democracies, while many of the democracies are high performing. • Democracy in Europe, however, has in recent years experienced erosion and backsliding. More than half of European democracies have eroded in the last 5 years. In particular, 3 countries—Hungary, Poland and Serbia—have registered a more severe form of erosion, called democratic backsliding, with Hungary regressing on its democratic standards for the past 14 years. • The pandemic has intensified these pre-existing concerns. The 3 backsliding countries in Europe have implemented a number of measures to curb the pandemic that are concerning from a democracy standpoint. • The main democratic challenges caused by the pandemic in Europe pertain to the disruption of electoral cycles, curtailment of civil liberties, the use of contact tracing apps, the increase in gender inequality and domestic violence, risks to vulnerable groups, executive aggrandizement, protest waves, corruption cases and challenges in the relationship between local and national governance. • Europe’s democracies have mostly showed resilience, and opportunities for furthering the integrity of elections, for digitalization and for innovative social protests have arisen. The review of the state of democracy during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 uses qualitative analysis and data of events and trends in the region collected through International IDEA’s Global Monitor of COVID-19’s Impact on Democracy and Human Rights, an initiative co-funded by the European Union.



2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-137
Author(s):  
Shiv Dutt Gupta ◽  
Rohit Jain ◽  
Sunil Bhatnagar

Background: Mathematical modelling of epidemics and pandemics serves as an input to policymakers and health planners for preparedness and planning for the containment of infectious diseases and their progression in the population. The susceptible–exposed–infectious/asymptomatic–recovered social distancing (SEIAR-SD) model, an extended application of the original Kermack–McKendrick and Fred Brauer models, was developed to predict the incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic and its progression and duration in the state of Rajasthan, India. Objective: The study aimed at developing a mathematical model, the SEIAR-SD model, of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Rajasthan, for predicting the number of cases, progression of the pandemic and its duration. Materials and methods: The SEIAR-SD model was applied for different values of population proportion, symptomatic and asymptomatic cases and social distancing parameters to evaluate the effect of variations in the number of infected persons, size of the pandemic and its duration, with value of other parameters fixed in the model. Actual reported cases were plotted and juxtaposed on the prediction models for comparison. Results: Social distancing was the crucial determinant of the magnitude of COVID-19 cases, the progression of the pandemic and its duration. In the absence of any proven treatment or vaccine, effective social distancing would reduce the number of infections and shorten the peak and duration of the pandemic. Loosening social distancing will increase the number of cases and lead to a heightened peak and prolonged duration of the pandemic. Conclusions: In the absence of an effective treatment or a vaccine against COVID-19, social distancing (lockdown) and public health interventions—case detection with testing and isolation, contact tracing and quarantining—will be crucial for the prevention of the spread of the pandemic and for saving lives.



2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calistus N. Ngonghala ◽  
Enahoro Iboi ◽  
Abba B. Gumel

AbstractThe community lockdown measures implemented in the United States, during late March to end of May of 2020, resulted in a significant reduction in the community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the country. However, a number of US states are currently experiencing an alarming post-lockdown resurgence of the pandemic, triggering the fear for a possible severe second wave of the pandemic in some US jurisdictions. We designed a mathematical model for addressing the key question of whether or not the universal use of face masks can halt or curtail such resurgence (and possibly avert a second wave, without having to undergo another cycle of major community lockdown) in the states of Arizona, Florida, New York and the entire US. The model was parametrized and fitted using cumulative mortality data from the four jurisdictions. Our study highlights the importance of early implementation of the community lockdown measures. In particular, a sizable reduction in the burden of the pandemic would have been recorded in each of the four jurisdictions if the community lockdown measures were implemented a week or two earlier. These reductions are greatly augmented if the early implementation of the lockdown measures is complemented with a public face masks use strategy. It is shown that the pandemic would have been almost completely suppressed from significantly taking off if the lockdown measures were implemented two weeks earlier, and if a sizable percentage of the residents of the four jurisdictions wore face masks during the respective lockdown periods. If the level of lifting of community lockdown is high (which entails allowing for greater community contacts and re-opening of businesses and social activities, in comparison to what was allowed during the community lockdown period), the states of Arizona and Florida will record a devastating second wave of the pandemic by the end of 2020, while the state of New York and the entire US will record milder second waves. If the level of lifting for the community lockdown was mild (i.e., only allowing very limited community contacts and business activities, in comparison to the lockdown period), only the state of Florida will experience a second wave. The severity of the projected second wave depends on the level of lifting of the community lockdown. For instance, the projected second wave for Arizona and Florida, associated with moderate and high level of lifting of lockdown, will be more severe than their respective first wave. For high level of lifting of lockdown measures, the increased use of face masks after the lockdown period greatly reduces the burden of the pandemic. In particular, for this high lifting scenario, none of the four jurisdictions will experience a second wave if half of their residents wear face masks consistently after their respective lockdown period). A testing strategy that increases the maximum detection rate of asymptomatic infected individuals (followed by contact tracing and self-isolation of the detected cases) greatly reduces the burden of the pandemic in all four jurisdictions, particularly if also combined with universal face mask use strategy. Universal use of face masks in public, with at least moderate level of compliance, could halt the post-lockdown resurgence of COVID-19, in addition to averting the potential for (or severity of) a second wave of the pandemic in each of the four jurisdictions.



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