scholarly journals THE KEY FEATURES OF THE CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 22-41
Author(s):  
S.A. Lysenko ◽  
◽  
I.V. Buyakov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Sum Of Active Temperatures

This paper investigates spatial and temporal features of the climate change in the Republic of Belarus during the period from 1960 to 2019. To accomplish this, we used data on daily average surface air temperature and applied decomposing the time series of these data with singular-spectrum analysis. We analyzed the principal components and long-term average anomalies of average annual, winter and summer air temperatures, the number of frosty days in the cold season and the number of winter days with thaws, the duration and heat supply of the growing season, as well as the frequency and intensity of heat waves. We also estimated the rates of moving the annual sum of active temperatures and the duration of the growing season from the south to the north of Belarus as a result of global warming. The ERA5 reanalysis estimates the spatial and temporal changes in the balance between annual rainfall and potential evaporation from 1980 to 2019. The average annual air temperature in 2000-2019 is shown to be exceeded the long-term average of this value by 1.8° C. The annual sum of active temperatures moves northward at an average speed of 120 km in 10 years with acceleration. Over the past 20 years, the rate of this displacement has doubled in comparison with the period 1980-2000. The length of the growing season moves from the south to the north at a speed of about 110 km per 10 years. It is shown that an increase in potential evaporation due to air warming when slightly changing annual amount of precipitation leads to aridization of the climate of Belarus emitting a reduction in the duration of the cold period with a simultaneous increase in the number of thaws does not contribute to the replenishment of water reserves during snowmelt. Additional damage to forestry and agriculture might be caused by heat waves, the frequency of which for 2000-2019 increased by a factor of 4 compared to the previous 20-year period. Additional damage to forestry and agriculture might be caused by heat waves, which frequency during last 19 years increased by a factor of 4 compared to the previous 20 years.

scholarly journals Multi-trait Analysis of Agroclimate Variations During the Growing Season in East-Central Poland (1971-2005)

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Radzka ◽  
Katarzyna Rymuza
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
The South ◽  
East Central ◽  
Central Poland ◽  
The North

Abstract The work is based on meteorological data recorded by nine stations of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management located in east-central Poland from 1971 to 2005. The region encompasses the North Podlasian Lowland and the South Podlasian Lowland. Average values of selected agroclimate indicators for the growing season were determined. Moreover, principal component analysis was conducted to indicate elements that exerted the greatest influence on the agroclimate. Also, cluster analysis was carried out to select stations with similar agroclimate. Ward method was used for clustering and the Euclidean distance was applied. Principal component analysis revealed that the agroclimate of east-central Poland was predominantly affected by climatic water balance, number of days of active plant growth, length of the farming period, and the average air temperature during the growing season (Apr-Sept). Based on the analysis, the region of east-central Poland was divided into two groups (areas) with different agroclimatic conditions. The first area comprized the following stations: Szepietowo and Białowieża located in the North Podlasian Lowland and Biała Podlaska situated in the northern part of the South Podlasian Lowland. This area was characterized by shorter farming periods and a lower average air temperature during the growing season. The other group included the remaining stations located in the western part of both the Lowlands which was warmer and where greater water deficits were recorded.

scholarly journals Assessment of heat supply of vegetation period within the northern grain-seeding territory of Kazakhstan

2017 ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
S. S. Baisholanov
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Supply ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Warm Weather ◽  
Thermal Sources ◽  
Sum Of Active Temperatures

Introduction. The existing  agroclimatic handbooks in Kazakhstan are outdated both in informational and technological senses. Therefore necessity of agroclimatic resources reassessment arose. Purpose. Research of heat supply of vegetation period within the Northern grain-seeding territory of  Kazakhstan. Methods. Data of meteorological stations for period of 1981-2014 were used. Methods of statistic and climatologic processing of data were applied. The agroclimatic maps were drafted using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Results. The article describes a thermal regime, duration and heat supply of vegetation period within the territory of 4 northern oblasts of Kazakhstan. The territory of Northern Kazakhstan under study hascontinental climate. Average annual air temperature at the area under study increases from the North to the South from 1.8 °C to 5.3 °C. Average July air temperature at the area changes from 18.5 °C to 23.6 °C and average January air temperature – from minus 12.8 °C  to minus 17.4 °C. Duration of vegetation period for early spring crops constitutes 172-193 days, for late spring crops – 136-162 days and for warm weather crops – 89-124 days. Daily range of air temperature is 11.4-14.7 °C and that means rather high quality of grain. Sum of active temperatures exceeding 10 °C  increases  from the North to the South from 2100 °C to 3400 °C. Vegetation period is 90% provided by sum of active temperatures exceeding 10 °C within the range of 2000-2900 °C. Maps of heat supply and vegetation period duration were also drafted. Conclusions. In the north of the territory under study thermal sources satisfy demands of soft and common sorts of wheat but are not enough for sunflower and maize, in the south they are enough for wheat, all sorts of sunflower and middle-late sorts of maize.

scholarly journals Vegetation Phenological Changes in Multiple Landforms and Responses to Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongzhu Han ◽  
Jianjun Bai ◽  
Gao Ma ◽  
Jianwu Yan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Vegetation Phenology ◽  
The South ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change, and the phenological responses of vegetation to climate factors vary over time and space. Research on the vegetation phenology in different climatic regimes will help clarify the key factors affecting vegetation changes. In this paper, based on a time-series reconstruction of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data using the Savitzky–Golay filtering method, the phenology parameters of vegetation were extracted, and the Spatio-temporal changes from 2001 to 2016 were analyzed. Moreover, the response characteristics of the vegetation phenology to climate changes, such as changes in temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours, were discussed. The results showed that the responses of vegetation phenology to climatic factors varied within different climatic regimes and that the Spatio-temporal responses were primarily controlled by the local climatic and topographic conditions. The following were the three key findings. (1) The start of the growing season (SOS) has a regular variation with the latitude, and that in the north is later than that in the south. (2) In arid areas in the north, the SOS is mainly affected by the temperature, and the end of the growing season (EOS) is affected by precipitation, while in humid areas in the south, the SOS is mainly affected by precipitation, and the EOS is affected by the temperature. (3) Human activities play an important role in vegetation phenology changes. These findings would help predict and evaluate the stability of different ecosystems.

scholarly journals Ambassadors of the Sensible World

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Gamboni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The South ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Art And Design ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Physical Presence ◽  
South Of Brazil ◽  
Ecological Transition

We may work on things, but the opposite is perhaps even more true: things work on us. Reflecting on several projects of art and research that I have been involved in over the past years, which address different aspects of the environmental mutations currently in process, this paper will aim to partly divert from a usual focus on the deliberate intentions and goals that we can set ourselves as authors, rather observing how various objects of concern can progressively grow in our conscience and in our practice, calling for new transdisciplinary and investigative tools. These projects include the observation of a negotiation summit re-enacted at SciencesPo Paris in 2012, during which the « specter » of climate change seemed to appear in the room as an almost physical presence; the long term artistic research project « A tale as a tool » developed with anthropologist and writer Sandrine Teixido, involving a text of fiction as an investigative object of mediation, allowing to collect testimonies by members of frontline communities from the South of Brazil to the North of Norway; and the research project « The Anthropocene Atlas of Geneva » at Geneva school of Art and Design, gathering self-reflexive interviews with numerous scientists, artists and other actors of the ecological transition.

Long-term Changes in Climatic Characteristics in St. Petersburg and their Possible Environmental Consequences

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 65-71
Author(s):  
V.V. Drozdov ◽  
G.T. Frumin ◽  
A.V. Kosenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Climatic Characteristics

The review and analysis of the long-term variability of the average annual and average air temperature for winter and summer, as well as the values of the amounts of atmospheric precipitation in St. Petersburg were carried out. The correlation between the dynamics of the values of these indicators and the intensity of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in the form of the NAO1 index (North Atlantic Oscillation) was estimated. The possible environmental consequences of climate change in the region of St. Petersburg are justified.

Long-term Cyclic Variations of Prominences, Green and Red Coronae over Solar Cycles

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 201-204
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Emission Lines ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Green Line ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The South ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
The North ◽  
Cyclic Variations

AbstractLong-term cyclic variations in the distribution of prominences and intensities of green (530.3 nm) and red (637.4 nm) coronal emission lines over solar cycles 18–23 are presented. Polar prominence branches will reach the poles at different epochs in cycle 23: the north branch at the beginning in 2002 and the south branch a year later (2003), respectively. The local maxima of intensities in the green line show both poleward- and equatorward-migrating branches. The poleward branches will reach the poles around cycle maxima like prominences, while the equatorward branches show a duration of 18 years and will end in cycle minima (2007). The red corona shows mostly equatorward branches. The possibility that these branches begin to develop at high latitudes in the preceding cycles cannot be excluded.

scholarly journals Surface Water Temperature Predictions at a Mid-Latitude Reservoir under Long-Term Climate Change Impacts Using a Deep Neural Network Coupled with a Transfer Learning Approach

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1109
Author(s):  
Nobuaki Kimura ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
Daichi Baba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Surface Water Temperature

Long-term climate change may strongly affect the aquatic environment in mid-latitude water resources. In particular, it can be demonstrated that temporal variations in surface water temperature in a reservoir have strong responses to air temperature. We adopted deep neural networks (DNNs) to understand the long-term relationships between air temperature and surface water temperature, because DNNs can easily deal with nonlinear data, including uncertainties, that are obtained in complicated climate and aquatic systems. In general, DNNs cannot appropriately predict unexperienced data (i.e., out-of-range training data), such as future water temperature. To improve this limitation, our idea is to introduce a transfer learning (TL) approach. The observed data were used to train a DNN-based model. Continuous data (i.e., air temperature) ranging over 150 years to pre-training to climate change, which were obtained from climate models and include a downscaling model, were used to predict past and future surface water temperatures in the reservoir. The results showed that the DNN-based model with the TL approach was able to approximately predict based on the difference between past and future air temperatures. The model suggested that the occurrences in the highest water temperature increased, and the occurrences in the lowest water temperature decreased in the future predictions.

scholarly journals Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Mingyang Sun ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Output Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

scholarly journals Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Ribeiro ◽  
Audrey Limoges ◽  
Guillaume Massé ◽  
Kasper L. Johansen ◽  
William Colgan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Sediment Cores ◽  
Arctic Ecosystems ◽  
Little Auk ◽  
The North ◽  
Water Ecosystem ◽  
North Water

AbstractHigh Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world’s northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400–4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200–1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.

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