scholarly journals Modeling climate change impacts on crop water demand, middle Awash River basin, case study of Berehet woreda

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Negash Tessema ◽  
Asfaw Kebede ◽  
Dame Yadeta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Peak Value

Abstract Climate change mainly affects crops via impacting evapotranspiration. This study quantifies climate change impacts on Evapotranspiration, crop water requirement, and irrigation water demand. 17 GCMs from the MarkSim-GCM were used for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for future projection. A soil sample was collected from 15 points from the maize production area. Based on USDA soil textural classification, the soil is classified as silt loam (higher class), clay loam (middle class), and clay loam (lower class). The crop growing season onset and offset were determined using the Markov chain model and compared with the farmer's indigenous experience. The main rainy season (Kiremt) starts during the 1st meteorological decade of June for baseline period and 2nd decade to 3rd decade of June for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of near (2020s) and mid (2050s) future period. The offset date is in the range of 270 (base period), RCP 4.5 (278, 284), and RCP 8.5 (281, 274) DOY for baseline, near, and mid future. The rainfall and temperature change show an increasing pattern from the base period under both scenarios. Furthermore, the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimating model was developed using multiple variable regression and used for a future period in this study. In the base period, ETo increases from 33.4 mm/dec in the 1st decade of July to the peak value of 52.1 mm/dec in the 3rd decade of May. Under RCP8 .5, the 2nd decade of August ETO is minimal (44.3 mm/dec) while in 1st decade of April ETO was maximum (75.3 mm/dec) and raise from 44.3 mm/dec in the 2nd decade of August to the peak value of 75.3 mm/dec in the 1st decade of April. Under RCP 4.5, ETO raises from 33 mm/dec in the 1st decade of Dec to the peak value of 48 mm/dec in the 3rd decade of May. ETo shows an increasing trend from the base period under both scenarios. During the base period, maize variety with a growing period of 110 days required 403.2 mm depth of water, while 67 mm is required as supplementary irrigation. Crop water and irrigation requirements of maize variety with a growing period of 110 days are predicted to be 436.1 and 445.1 mm water during the 2020 and 2050 s for RCP 4.5, while 101.8 to 63.7 mm depth of water as supplementary irrigation respectively and 441.3 and 447.3 mm of water during 2020 and 2050 s of the future period for RCP 8.5, while 142.9 to 134.0 mm required as supplementary irrigation for both periods of RCP 8.5 scenarios. Crop water need will increase by 8.16 and 10.39% for RCP 4.5 and by 9.45 and 10.94% for RCP 8.5 of the 2020 and 2050 s respectively. In this study, a new ETO model is developed using a multiple variable linear regression model and its degree of the fitting is statistically tested and Kc is adjusted for the local climate, hence, can be used in future irrigation and related studies. Generally, decision-makers, farmers, Irrigation engineers, and other stakeholders can use the results of this study in irrigation design, monitoring, scheduling, and other related activities. Highlight In this study, a new ETO model is developed and Kc is adjusted for the local climate, hence, can be used in future irrigation and related studies. Generally, decision-makers, farmers, Irrigation engineers, and other stakeholders can use the results of this study in irrigation design, monitoring, scheduling, and other related activities.

scholarly journals Exploring climate change impacts during first half of the 21st century on flow regime of the transboundary Kabul River in the Hindukush region

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1521-1538
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi ◽  
Amjad Masood ◽  
Haris Mushtaq ◽  
Syed Ahsan Ali Bukhari ◽  
Burhan Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River System ◽  
Joint Strategy ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
High Level ◽  
Flooding Events ◽  
Kabul River ◽  
Far Future

Abstract In transboundary river basins, climate change is being considered as a concern of higher degree than it is in other parts of the world. The Kabul River Basin, a sub-basin of the Indus River system shared by Pakistan and Afghanistan, is no exception. High level of sensitivity of its flow to temperature makes it imperative to analyse climate change impacts on the flow regime of this important river for efficient water resources management on both sides of the border. The snowmelt runoff model integrated with remote sensing snow cover product MODIS was selected to simulate daily discharges. Future projections were generated for two selected time slices, 2011–2030 (near future) and 2031–2050 (far future), based on output of an ensemble of four GCMs' RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Analysis shows a significant temperature increase under both scenarios in the near and far future at a high-altitude region of the basin which mostly receives snowfall that is also found increasing over time. Consequently, it causes a change in the flow regime and more frequent and heavier flooding events, thus calling for a joint strategy of the two riparian countries to mitigate the anticipated impacts in the basin for safety of people and overall prosperity.

scholarly journals Using Scientific Conferences to Engage the Public on Climate Change

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-230
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Hicke ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Steven Daley-Laursen ◽  
Jamie Esler ◽  
Lauren E. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
School Students ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Public ◽  
Local Climate Change ◽  
Conference Attendance

Abstract Climate change is often perceived as controversial in the public’s view. One meaningful way scientists can address this problem is to engage with the public to increase understanding of climate change. Attendees of scientific conferences address climate change within meetings yet rarely interact with the public as part of conference attendance. Here, we describe outreach (sending experts into the community) and inreach (bringing the public to a conference) activities at the 2015 Northwest Climate Conference in Idaho that were designed to increase the local community’s understanding of climate change and foster interaction between scientists and the public. Conference attendees volunteered to visit community schools and civic groups to give presentations and engage in a discussion on climate change. We designed a well-attended evening plenary session for the public that featured an experienced speaker who described local climate change impacts important to the community. Local high school students attended the conference, and several were mentored by conference attendees. We reached an estimated 1,000 students and 500 other members of the public in person and many others via advertising and newspaper articles. Keys to our success were local contacts with excellent connections to schools, civic organizations, local government officials, interest groups, and a pool of motivated, enthusiastic conference attendees who were already traveling to the area. We encourage other conference organizers to consider these activities in their future meetings to increase public knowledge of climate change, particularly given the urgency of action needed to limit future climate change and its impacts.

Local climate controls among-population variation in germination patterns in two Erica species across western Iberia

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Chamorro ◽  
Belén Luna ◽  
José M. Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Shock ◽  
Seed Dormancy ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Population Variation ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Gradients ◽  
Germination Response ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Response To Temperature

AbstractIn seasonal climates, germination timing is mainly controlled by temperature, especially in species with physiological seed dormancy. The germination response to temperature may, however, vary among populations across the distribution range of species. Understanding how populations along climate gradients vary in their sensitivity to temperature is important for determining their vulnerability to climate variability and change. Here, we investigated the germination response of two Erica species with physiological seed dormancy (E. australis and E. umbellata) to changes in temperature throughout the seasons (simulated autumn through to spring) and to the local climate in six localities across a latitudinal gradient in western Iberia. Effects were studied with and without exposing the seeds to a heat shock. The local climate of seed provenance emerged as a key factor in modifying the germination sensitivity to germination temperature and their variation through the seasons. Although each species showed idiosyncratic germination responses to temperature treatments and across the gradient, germination of both species was sensitive to warmer temperatures and to a heat shock. Both showed similar seasonal germination patterns: as we moved from south to north, populations tended to have a larger germination peak in spring, which was greater at colder temperatures. We conclude that rising temperatures associated with climate change will affect these species, particularly at their northern ranges, where many seeds will remain dormant during warmer winters. Arguably, models aiming at assessing climate change impacts in these species need to include such variability across latitude.

scholarly journals Evaluating the climate change effects on temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration in eastern Iran using CMPI5

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangli Fan ◽  
Amjad Sarabandi ◽  
Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Eastern Iran ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Abstract In this study, the trend of climate changes during a future period from 2020 to 2039 has been evaluated using the data of the Fifth Climate Change Report under two emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for Neishabour plain, Iran. Eleven models such as CESM, EC EARTH, HADGEM, MPI, NORESM, CANESM, CSIROM, GFDLCM2, GISS E2, IPSL and MIROC ESM have been used to evaluate changes in minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that GFDLCM2, MPI and IPSL models were more accurate in terms of precipitation and GISS E2 and GFDLCM2 models were the suitable option for predicting the maximum and minimum temperatures and evapotranspiration. Considering the evaluated parameters, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration had approximately the constant trends and were accompanied by a slight increase and decrease for the next two decades, but for the precipitation, large fluctuations were predicted for the next period. Moreover, in the study years for the four parameters in all simulated models, the RCP 8.5 scenario has estimated a higher amount than the RCP 4.5 scenario.

scholarly journals Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Lotfirad ◽  
Arash Adib ◽  
Jaber Salehpoor ◽  
Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on water and energy security

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2530-2546
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Goodarzi ◽  
Hamed Vagheei ◽  
Rabi H. Mohtar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Hydropower Plants ◽  
The World ◽  
Fundamental Systems ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The interdependent fundamental systems, water and energy, face abundant challenges, one of which is climate change, which is expected to aggravate water and energy securities. The hydropower industry's benefits have led to its development and growth around the world. Nonetheless, climate change is expected to disturb the future performance of hydropower plants. This study looks at the Seimareh Hydropower Plant to assess the potential vulnerability of hydropower plants to climate change. Results indicate that climate change will affect the area's hydrological variables and suggest an increase in temperatures and decrease in precipitation during a 30-year future period (2040–2069). It is predicted that Seimareh Dam's inflow will decrease by between 5.2% and 13.4% in the same period. These hydrological changes will affect the Seimareh plant's performance: current predictions are that the total energy produced will decrease by between 8.4% and 16.3%. This research indicates the necessity of considering climate change impacts in designing and maintaining hydraulic structures to reach their optimal performance.

scholarly journals Winter wren populations show adaptation to local climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 160250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catriona A. Morrison ◽  
Robert A. Robinson ◽  
James W. Pearce-Higgins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Body Size ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Evolutionary Adaptation ◽  
Selective Mortality ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Evolutionary Response

Most studies of evolutionary responses to climate change have focused on phenological responses to warming, and provide only weak evidence for evolutionary adaptation. This could be because phenological changes are more weakly linked to fitness than more direct mechanisms of climate change impacts, such as selective mortality during extreme weather events which have immediate fitness consequences for the individuals involved. Studies examining these other mechanisms may be more likely to show evidence for evolutionary adaptation. To test this, we quantify regional population responses of a small resident passerine (winter wren Troglodytes troglodytes ) to a measure of winter severity (number of frost days). Annual population growth rate was consistently negatively correlated with this measure, but the point at which different populations achieved stability ( λ  = 1) varied across regions and was closely correlated with the historic average number of frost days, providing strong evidence for local adaptation. Despite this, regional variation in abundance remained negatively related to the regional mean number of winter frost days, potentially as a result of a time-lag in the rate of evolutionary response to climate change. As expected from Bergmann's rule, individual wrens were heavier in colder regions, suggesting that local adaptation may be mediated through body size. However, there was no evidence for selective mortality of small individuals in cold years, with annual variation in mean body size uncorrelated with the number of winter frost days, so the extent to which local adaptation occurs through changes in body size, or another mechanism remains uncertain.

Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in Relation to Ontario’s Source Water Protection Planning Program

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Livingston ◽  
Edward McBean ◽  
Mason Marchildon ◽  
Bahram Gharabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Source Water ◽  
Water Protection ◽  
Runoff Modeling ◽  
Source Water Protection ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Peak Streamflow ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Water management activities are currently predicated on the assumption of a stationary climate, despite the reality of climate change. Hydrologic impacts of climate change for three sub-watersheds north of Toronto for 2041-70 were investigated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to model six GCM projections from each of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. Annual groundwater recharge, evapotranspiration, and the 7Q20 low streamflow statistic were projected to change from 1976-2005 conditions by -2.2% to +20.5%, +0.9% to +14.4%, and -25.5% to +9.8%, respectively. Seasonal shifts included an earlier date of peak streamflow for the majority of simulations and a +14.0% to +103.9% increase in winter recharge. A steady-state MODFLOW model was employed as a preliminary assessment into the effects of climate change on Source Water Protection outputs. The results of this research further the understanding of climate change impacts on human and ecological systems in southern Ontario.

Looking broadly and deeply into perspectives of local climate change impacts among visitors to Missouri state parks

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Lisa Groshong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Place Attachment ◽  
Outdoor Recreation ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
State Parks ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Local Climate Change ◽  
Change Mitigation

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] Missouri's outdoor recreation resources provide numerous mental, physical, and social values to millions of people each year and serve as a major contributor to the statewide economy. However, climate change threatens these benefits. This project sought to explore climate change perceptions and place attachment of outdoor enthusiasts in Missouri as a step toward managing natural and cultural resources for ongoing climate resilience. This study used interviews and a statewide visitor survey to measure climate change impacts on visitors to Missouri's state parks and historic sites. The dissertation is formatted in three manuscripts. The first manuscript assessed how engaged state park users perceive climate change impacts and what they view as the agency role in climate change mitigation, education, and communication. The second manuscript identified health concerns related to climate change and examined how these concerns affect park use. The final manuscript examined the role of place attachment in determining visitors' willingness to engage in climate friendly behavior and support for management action to minimize climate-change impacts. Overall findings suggested climate-change related management challenges and provided evidence for visitor support for education and action. Opportunities were identified for state park managers to take action toward locally-oriented climate change mitigation, education and communication. Place attachment dimensions were affirmed as tools for engaging visitors in climate-related actions, both in and beyond park settings.

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