scholarly journals A CGE Analysis of Indonesia's Free Trade Agreements

2020 ◽  
Vol 006 (03) ◽  
pp. 479-491
Author(s):  
Galuh Narulita Yutiningsari
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Alternative Trade ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Liberalization Policy ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) CGE model of the global economy, this essay analyses how much trade agreements between Indonesia and its top three trading partners – China, Japan, and the USA – could benefit Indonesia and those trading partners. In addition, an analysis of unilateral trade liberalization in Indonesia is included to provide a comparison of alternative trade liberalization policy strategies. The study conducts experiments by simulating the potential effect of the removal tariffs on imported merchandise under each liberalization scenario. The result suggests that the impact of trade liberalization is variable between strategies, but the greatest economic benefit is from the unilateral scenario. However, the restrictiveness of preferential RoO and other regulations in bilateral agreements would limit the scope for achieving the full benefit projected for the bilateral liberalization scenarios – discount rates of around 25 percent have been suggested.

International Cooperation and Natural Disasters: Evidence from Trade Agreements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Conevska
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Environmental Shocks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Economies

Abstract Environmental shocks in the form of natural disasters are well known for their impact on domestic economies. Less known, however, is their impact on the global economy. The scant existing literature suggests that macro-economic impacts manifest in observed empirical decreases in international trade. The literature, however, does not examine whether the impact of natural disasters on trade varies for trading partners with differing levels of market integration. This paper examines if preferential liberalization serves to protect or buffer against the negative economic consequences of natural disasters. I show that deep preferential liberalization can not only protect countries against the negative macro-economic impact of natural disasters but can actually allow countries to increase exports during natural disaster events that otherwise induce trade decline. These findings suggest that by allowing countries to expand the quantity and the range of exports, preferential trade agreements lead to enhanced resilience against exogenous shocks.

scholarly journals Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Asia: Credible Commitment to Trade Liberalization or Paper Tigers?

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Hicks ◽  
Soo Yeon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Institution Building ◽  
Credible Commitment ◽  
Coding Scheme ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The Impact

Reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) have proliferated rapidly in Asia in recent years, an unprecedented phenomenon in a region in which state-led institution-building efforts were largely unsuccessful during the Cold War years. In this article, we investigate the qualitative provisions of RTAs in Asia, focusing on agreements that are professedly geared toward trade liberalization through reciprocal exchanges of trade concessions. We build on the concept of credible commitment—that states “tie their hands” through international agreements and thus signal strong commitment to trade liberalization. We argue that a broad range of agreement provisions will affect an RTA's ability to achieve its primary objective: trade liberalization. We present a coding scheme that measures the strength of a wide variety of provisions in the legal texts of RTAs. Using quantitative analysis, we analyze the impact of various components of Asia's RTAs on participants' trade flows.

scholarly journals The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (256) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vargas ◽  
Daniela Hess
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Global Var ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.

Trade Liberalization, Structural Change, and Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 407-441
Author(s):  
Michael Landesmann ◽  
Neil Foster-McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Adam Smith ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
New Trade Theory ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Trade and the integration of countries into the global economy is one of the main forces shaping the structural composition of economies, an effect which in turn is expected to impact upon productivity and growth. Structural change can be restrained or reinforced by international trade. This chapter reviews the theory on the relationship between trade and trade liberalization and both structural change and growth, from the contributions of Adam Smith to the more recent new new trade theory beginning with the work of Melitz. The chapter further discusses the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between trade and structural change, before concluding by presenting evidence on the impact of trade liberalization on productivity growth for a broad sample of countries, further decomposing the effect into an effect due to structural change and an effect due to within sector productivity developments.

SINGAPORE AND ASEAN IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: The Case of Free Trade Agreements

Asian Survey ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 908-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teofilo C. Daquila ◽  
Le Huu Huy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Asian Economic Community

Abstract Given the slow pace of global and regional trade liberalization initiatives, Singapore has forged free trade agreements for economic and strategic reasons. Other ASEAN countries and ASEAN itself have also become interested in establishing FTAs with countries outside the grouping. In the future, ASEAN could form an ASEAN or an East Asian Economic Community.

scholarly journals The impact of a federal cigarette minimum pack price policy on cigarette use in the USA

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan J Doogan ◽  
Mary Ellen Wewers ◽  
Micah Berman
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Price Policy ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Cigarette Use ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Minimum Price ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundIncreasing cigarette prices reduce cigarette use. The US Food and Drug Administration has the authority to regulate the sale and promotion—and therefore the price—of tobacco products.ObjectiveTo examine the potential effect of federal minimum price regulation on the sales of cigarettes in the USA.MethodWe used yearly state-level data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco and other sources to model per capita cigarette sales as a function of price. We used the fitted model to compare the status quo sales with counterfactual scenarios in which a federal minimum price was set. The minimum price scenarios ranged from $0 to $12.ResultsThe estimated price effect in our model was comparable with that found in the literature. Our counterfactual analyses suggested that the impact of a minimum price requirement could range from a minimal effect at the $4 level to a reduction of 5.7 billion packs sold per year and 10 million smokers at the $10 level.ConclusionA federal minimum price policy has the potential to greatly benefit tobacco control and public health by uniformly increasing the price of cigarettes and by eliminating many price-reducing strategies currently available to both sellers and consumers.

India’s Trade Potential and Free Trade Agreements: A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 20160074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surender Kumar ◽  
Prerna Prabhakar
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyses the role of Free Trade Agreements in determining export and import efficiency levels in India using stochastic frontier version of gravity model. We estimate the impact of selected FTAs of India (its bilateral FTAs, FTA with ASEAN and South Asian FTA) and regulatory quality on the efficiency of exports and imports over the period of 2000–2014. The results indicate that India’s bilateral FTAs and its FTA with the ASEAN group help in improving the export and import efficiency respectively. However, the South Asian Free Trade Agreement is statistically insignificant for India’s export and import efficiency. The results also highlight importance of trading partners’ regulatory quality for enhancing the India’s trade efficiency and note that the impacts of regulatory quality are non-monotonic.

scholarly journals TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ANTARA INDONESIA DAN NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN-KOREA

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-81
Author(s):  
Tresna Ritaningsih ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim ◽  
Sahara Sahara
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia has several free trade agreements with trading partners that aimed to eliminate tariff and non tariff trade barriers. One of the free trade agreements is ASEAN-Korea FTA. Trade agreement in goods in ASEAN-Korea FTA was agreed since 2007 and now it is entering the implementation phase. The objective of this research is to determine whether the ASEAN-Korea FTA would increase the trade flows between Indonesia and ASEAN-Korea’ countries by analyzing the impact of regional integration on trade creation and trade diversion. This research is utilized balance panel data including 13 countries from 1998-2012. The empirical result shows that all Indonesia's trading sectors experienced decline because of trade diversion and trade creation does not occur. Indonesia's import trading with the non-member countries of ASEAN-Korea is 68% lower than the existing trading. Key word: trade creation, trade diversion, free trade agreement, trade in goods

scholarly journals Confronting US imperialism with international law. Central America and the arms trade of the inter-war period

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-509
Author(s):  
Daniel Stahl
Keyword(s):  
World War I ◽  
International Law ◽  
Central America ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Equal Treatment ◽  
World War ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

This article analyses attempts to regulate the access to arms in Central America from the beginning of the World War I to the end of the 1920s. During these years, the USA was not only the politically and economically dominant force in the region – they were also the main provider of weapons. In a region where societies were reshaped by the integration into a global economy, political groups depended on the access to weapons to enforce their claims for power. This gave the US government the possibility to use arms exports as well as arms embargos to shape politics in the region. Within this setting, arms control through international law became a contested subject. The First World War boosted international debates about disarmament. The Wilson administration joined these debates with proposals, which would have enabled Washington to better control the flow of arms into the Western Hemisphere. Central American governments, on the other hand, joined disarmament negotiations in Geneva to shape international law in a way to restrict Washington’s influence in the region and to ensure equal treatment at the international level. The impact of this conflict was not limited to the Western Hemisphere, and it left its imprint on European disarmament policies. Thus, this article reveals how international arms control was inscribed at the same time in imperial and anti-imperial agendas in a region with formally sovereign states.

scholarly journals Trade Policy, Infrastructure and Agricultural Output in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 329
Author(s):  
Lionel Effiom ◽  
Bassey Ebi
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
The Government ◽  
Liberalization Policy ◽  
The Impact

The collapse of the international price of crude oil in 2015 and its attendant negative consequences on government fiscal capacity and development efforts re-echoed the need for Nigerians to return to agriculture as the surest means of conserving foreign exchange and revamping productive capacity. Within this context, this paper deploys the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) econometric methodology to investigate the impact of Nigeria’s trade policy and infrastructural development on agricultural value added. Findings show that in the long run Nigeria’s trade liberalization policy is a disincentive to the growth of the agricultural sector value added, while key components of infrastructure (roads, telecommunications, and electricity consumption) had a significant relationship with the agricultural sector. We advocate guided trade liberalization wherein, while embracing the principles of conventional trade deregulation, the government properly articulates the weakness of the economy’s productive structure and encourage farmers and local producers to attain maturity. Specifically, the current ban on some selected food items should be consolidated, without which Nigeria would continue to be a net food importer. Goveronment might consider studying and implementing the African Development Bank’s Infrastructure Action Plan for Nigeria.

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