The Infection Rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: Combined Analysis of Population Samples

Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Wuhan had a much higher mortality rate than the rest of China. However, a large number of asymptomatic infections in Wuhan may have never been diagnosed, contributing to an overestimated mortality rate. Objective This study aims to obtain an accurate estimate of infections in Wuhan using internet data. Methods In this study, we performed a combined analysis of the infection rate among evacuated foreign citizens to estimate the infection rate in Wuhan in late January and early February. Results Based on our analysis, the combined infection rate of the foreign evacuees was 0.013 (95% CI 0.008-0.022). Therefore, we estimate the number of infected people in Wuhan to be 143,000 (range 88,000-242,000), which is significantly higher than previous estimates. Our study indicates that a large number of infections in Wuhan were not diagnosed, which has resulted in an overestimated case fatality rate. Conclusions Increased awareness of the original infection rate of Wuhan is critical for proper public health measures at all levels, as well as to eliminate panic caused by overestimated mortality rates that may bias health policy actions by the authorities.

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The Infection Rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: Combined Analysis of Population Samples (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.20914 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hui-Qi Qu ◽

Zhangkai Jason Cheng ◽

Zhifeng Duan ◽

Lifeng Tian ◽

Hakon Hakonarson

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Infection Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Accurate Estimate ◽

Combined Analysis ◽

Infected People ◽

Health Measures ◽

Asymptomatic Infections ◽

Combined Infection

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Wuhan had a much higher mortality rate than the rest of China. However, a large number of asymptomatic infections in Wuhan may have never been diagnosed, contributing to an overestimated mortality rate. OBJECTIVE This study aims to obtain an accurate estimate of infections in Wuhan using internet data. METHODS In this study, we performed a combined analysis of the infection rate among evacuated foreign citizens to estimate the infection rate in Wuhan in late January and early February. RESULTS Based on our analysis, the combined infection rate of the foreign evacuees was 0.013 (95% CI 0.008-0.022). Therefore, we estimate the number of infected people in Wuhan to be 143,000 (range 88,000-242,000), which is significantly higher than previous estimates. Our study indicates that a large number of infections in Wuhan were not diagnosed, which has resulted in an overestimated case fatality rate. CONCLUSIONS Increased awareness of the original infection rate of Wuhan is critical for proper public health measures at all levels, as well as to eliminate panic caused by overestimated mortality rates that may bias health policy actions by the authorities.

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The Infection Rate of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China

10.1101/2020.05.02.20088724 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Hui-Qi Qu ◽

Zhangkai J. Cheng ◽

Zhifeng Duan ◽

Lifeng Tian ◽

Hakon Hakonarson

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Health Policy ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Infection Rate ◽

Infection Rates ◽

Policy And Practice ◽

Wuhan City ◽

Infected People ◽

Health Measures ◽

New Findings

Summary BoxWhat is already known about this subject?The Wuhan city in China had a much higher mortality rate (Feb 10th statistics: 748 death/18,454 diagnosis =4.05%; Apr 24th statistics: 3,869 death/50,333 diagnosis=7.69%) than the rest of China.What are the new findings?Based on our analysis, the number of infected people in Wuhan is estimated to be 143,000 (88,000 to 242,000) in late January and early February, significantly higher than the published number of diagnosed cases.What are the recommendations for policy and practice?Increased awareness of the original infection rates in Wuhan, China is critically important for proper public health measures at all levels, as well as to eliminate panic caused by overestimated mortality rate that may bias health policy actions by the authorities

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Questions to the Article of the Infection Rate of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China: a Combined Analysis of Population Samples (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.23563 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

CHIEN WEI

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Infection Rate ◽

Standard Error ◽

Healthcare Information Systems to Assess Influenza Outbreaks

Applied Clinical Informatics ◽

10.4338/aci-2010-05-ra-0030 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 02 (01) ◽

pp. 75-85 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

V. Aliperti ◽

E. Salazar ◽

C. Otero ◽

M. Schpilberg ◽

V. Taliercio ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Information System ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Care Center ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Morbidity And Mortality ◽

Influenza Epidemic ◽

Health Maintenance ◽

Health Care Center ◽

Severe Acute Respiratory Infection

Summary Objective: To determine whether a private HIS could have detected the influenza epidemic outbreaks earlier through changes in morbidity and mortality patterns. Methods: Data Source included a health information system (HIS) from an academic tertiary health care center integrating administrative and clinical applications. It used a local interface terminology server which provides support through data autocoding of clinical documentation. Specific data subsets were created to compare the burden of influenza during the epidemiological week (EW) 21 to 26 for years 2007 to 2009 among 150,000 Health Maintenance Organization members in Argentina. The threshold for identifying an epidemic was considered met when the weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) rate exceeded 200 per 100,000 visits. Case fatality rates and mortality rates of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) from 2007 to 2009 were retrospectively compared. Case fatality rates and mortality rates for A/H1N1 influenza 2009 also were estimated. Results: The HIS detected the outbreak in EW 23 while the government Ministry of Health (MoH) gave a national epidemic alert during EW 25. The number of visits for ILI increased more than fourfold when comparing 2009 to the period 2007-2008. The SARI mortality rate in 2009 was higher than in 2008 (RR 2.8; 95%CI 1.18-6.63) and similar to that of 2007 (RR 1.05; 95%CI 0.56-1.49). 2009 was the first year with mortalities younger than 65 years attributable to SARI. The estimated A/H1N1 case fatality rate for SARI was 6.2% (95%CI 2.5 to 15.5) and A/H1N1 mortality rate was 6 per 100,000 (95%CI 0 to 11.6). Conclusion: Our HIS detected the outbreak two weeks before than the MoH gave a national alert. The information system was useful in assessing morbidity and mortality during the 2009 influenza epidemic H1N1 outbreak suggesting that with a private-public integration a more real-time outbreak and disease surveillance system could be implemented.

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Analysis of demographic data collected in a rural area of Kenya

Journal of Biosocial Science ◽

10.1017/s0021932000015297 ◽

1984 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. 463-473 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

H. A. W. Van Vianen ◽

J. K. Van Ginneken

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Infant Mortality ◽

Demographic Data ◽

Age Groups ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Adult Mortality ◽

Accurate Estimate ◽

Infant Mortality Rate ◽

Live Births ◽

Fertility Estimate

SummaryIn the area studied in the Machakos Project the total fertility estimate amounts to 7·46, which is somewhat lower than reported in the preceding article (van Ginneken et al., 1984). Evidence is provided that the low observed infant mortality rate of 49 per 1000 live births is plausible; this rate is in accordance with the relatively low and rapidly declining infant mortality rates found in Kenya. No accurate estimate on adult mortality could be obtained, probably due to serious overstatement of ages in the older age groups.

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Health and Demographic Impact on COVID-19 Infection and Mortality in US Counties

10.1101/2020.05.06.20093195 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Zidian Xie ◽

Dongmei Li

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Infection Rate ◽

Demographic Factors ◽

Population Level ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

The Us ◽

Low Education ◽

Us Counties ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Demographic Impact

AbstractIntroductionWith the pandemic of COVID-19, the number of confirmed cases and related deaths are increasing in the US. We aimed to understand the potential impact of health and demographic factors on the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 at the population level.MethodsWe collected total number of confirmed cases and deaths related to COVID-19 at the county level in the US from January 21, 2020 to April 23, 2020. We extracted health and demographic measures for each US county. Multivariable linear mixed effects models were used to investigate potential correlations of health and demographic characteristics with the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 in US counties.ResultsOur models showed that several health and demographic factors were positively correlated with the infection rate of COVID-19, such as low education level and percentage of Black. In contrast, several factors, including percentage of smokers and percentage of food insecure, were negatively correlated with the infection rate of COVID-19. While the number of days since first confirmed case and the infection rate of COVID-19 were negatively correlated with the mortality rate of COVID-19, percentage of elders (65 and above) and percentage of rural were positively correlated with the mortality rate of COVID-19.ConclusionsAt the population level, health and demographic factors could impact the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 in US counties.

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Initial Report of Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery as Sole Therapy for Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation: Operative and Intermediate-Term Outcome

The Heart Surgery Forum ◽

10.1532/hsf98.20041162 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 89 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Kevin M. Harris ◽

Avinash Reddy ◽

Dorothee Aepplii ◽

Betsy Wilson ◽

Robert W. Emery

Keyword(s):

Coronary Artery ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Mitral Regurgitation ◽

Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery ◽

Bypass Surgery ◽

Artery Bypass ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Off Pump ◽

Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation ◽

Pump Coronary Artery Bypass

Background: Patients undergoing on-pump coronary artery bypass surgery (CAB) with coexistent moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation (IMR) have a significant mortality rate compared to patients without MR. The mortality rate is elevated both perioperatively (0%-12% mortality), as well as over a 1- and 2-year postoperative period (15%-25%). It is thought that some patients are best served by off-pump CAB (OPCAB); however, outcomes have not been reported for such patients with coexistent moderate IMR. Methods: We reviewed the independent database of patients undergoing OPCAB between 1995 and 2002 to find 989 patients, 17 (1.7%) of whom had moderate or moderately severe MR. Patients were contacted and clinical and echocardiographic data were obtained. Results: The patient group consisted of 11 men and 6 women (age, 65 15 years). The study group had a PA pressure of 52 14, creatinine of 1.6 0.7, and left ventricular ejection fraction of 43 18. Nine patients (53%) had advanced New York Heart Association (class III-IV) heart failure. Mortality rates perioperatively and at 1, 2, and 3 years were 0%, 6.25% (1/16), 12.5% (2/16), and 38% (4/8), respectively. At the time of this report, no patient had returned for a reparative procedure. Conclusion: In patients felt to be best served by OPCAB with ischemic MR, operative and intermediate mortality rates are remarkably similar to those previously reported for on-pump series. These data underscore the continued need to understand which patients undergoing CAB require mitral valve problems to be addressed at the time of surgery.

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Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States

The Innovation ◽

10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100047 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 100047 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Donghai Liang ◽

Liuhua Shi ◽

Jingxuan Zhao ◽

Pengfei Liu ◽

Jeremy A. Sarnat ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Urban Air Pollution ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The United States ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Urban Air

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Effects of some bioinsecticides on the tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

Egyptian Journal of Biological Pest Control ◽

10.1186/s41938-020-00346-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 31 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alime Bayindir Erol ◽

Oktay Erdoğan ◽

İsmail Karaca

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Active Ingredient ◽

Metarhizium Anisopliae ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Tomato Leaf ◽

Tuta Absoluta ◽

Leaf Miner ◽

Verticillium Lecanii ◽

Main Body ◽

Tomato Leaf Miner

Abstract Background In this study, commercial bioinsecticides including entomopathogenic fungi, Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae, and Verticillium lecanii, and Spinetoram active ingredient insecticide were evaluated against the tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) larvae. Main body The active ingredients were prepared at the recommended concentrations under laboratory conditions and applied to the 2nd instar larvae of T. absoluta by spraying with a hand sprayer. On the 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th days of the application, evaluations were made by counting survived individuals. The findings showed that the highest mortality rates were detected in the case of Spinetoram with 56, 60, 88, and 100% on all counting days of the experiments, respectively. The highest mortality rate among bioinsecticides was recorded for M. anisopliae, with 87% mortality on the 7th day of application. Short conclusion As a result, Spinetoram was found the most effective insecticide when applied to T. absoluta, followed by M. anisopliae.

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Mortality in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a multinational population-based cohort study

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-021-06326-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Melissa C. MacKinnon ◽

Scott A. McEwen ◽

David L. Pearl ◽

Outi Lyytikäinen ◽

Gunnar Jacobsson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Escherichia Coli ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Population Based ◽

Day Case ◽

Fatality Risk ◽

E Coli ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Case Fatality Risk ◽

Age And Sex

Abstract Background Escherichia coli is the most common cause of bloodstream infections (BSIs) and mortality is an important aspect of burden of disease. Using a multinational population-based cohort of E. coli BSIs, our objectives were to evaluate 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate, and determine factors associated with each. Methods During 2014–2018, we identified 30-day deaths from all incident E. coli BSIs from surveillance nationally in Finland, and regionally in Sweden (Skaraborg) and Canada (Calgary, Sherbrooke, western interior). We used a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate factors associated with 30-day case fatality risk. The explanatory variables considered for inclusion were year (2014–2018), region (five areas), age (< 70-years-old, ≥70-years-old), sex (female, male), third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance (susceptible, resistant), and location of onset (community-onset, hospital-onset). The European Union 28-country 2018 population was used to directly age and sex standardize mortality rates. We used a multivariable Poisson model to estimate factors associated with mortality rate, and year, region, age and sex were considered for inclusion. Results From 38.7 million person-years of surveillance, we identified 2961 30-day deaths in 30,923 incident E. coli BSIs. The overall 30-day case fatality risk was 9.6% (2961/30923). Calgary, Skaraborg, and western interior had significantly increased odds of 30-day mortality compared to Finland. Hospital-onset and 3GC-resistant E. coli BSIs had significantly increased odds of mortality compared to community-onset and 3GC-susceptible. The significant association between age and odds of mortality varied with sex, and contrasts were used to interpret this interaction relationship. The overall standardized 30-day mortality rate was 8.5 deaths/100,000 person-years. Sherbrooke had a significantly lower 30-day mortality rate compared to Finland. Patients that were either ≥70-years-old or male both experienced significantly higher mortality rates than those < 70-years-old or female. Conclusions In our study populations, region, age, and sex were significantly associated with both 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate. Additionally, 3GC resistance and location of onset were significantly associated with 30-day case fatality risk. Escherichia coli BSIs caused a considerable burden of disease from 30-day mortality. When analyzing population-based mortality data, it is important to explore mortality through two lenses, mortality rate and case fatality risk.

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