scholarly journals Real-time Prediction of the Daily Incidence of COVID-19 in 215 Countries and Territories Using Machine Learning: Model Development and Validation (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Peng ◽  
Xinjian Chen ◽  
Yibiao Rong ◽  
Chi Pui Pang ◽  
Xinjian Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Spearman Correlation ◽  
Time Prediction ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
The Mean

BACKGROUND Advanced prediction of the daily incidence of COVID-19 can aid policy making on the prevention of disease spread, which can profoundly affect people's livelihood. In previous studies, predictions were investigated for single or several countries and territories. OBJECTIVE We aimed to develop models that can be applied for real-time prediction of COVID-19 activity in all individual countries and territories worldwide. METHODS Data of the previous daily incidence and infoveillance data (search volume data via Google Trends) from 215 individual countries and territories were collected. A random forest regression algorithm was used to train models to predict the daily new confirmed cases 7 days ahead. Several methods were used to optimize the models, including clustering the countries and territories, selecting features according to the importance scores, performing multiple-step forecasting, and upgrading the models at regular intervals. The performance of the models was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient, and Spearman correlation coefficient. RESULTS Our models can accurately predict the daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in most countries and territories. Of the 215 countries and territories under study, 198 (92.1%) had MAEs <10 and 187 (87.0%) had Pearson correlation coefficients >0.8. For the 215 countries and territories, the mean MAE was 5.42 (range 0.26-15.32), the mean RMSE was 9.27 (range 1.81-24.40), the mean Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.89 (range 0.08-0.99), and the mean Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.84 (range 0.2-1.00). CONCLUSIONS By integrating previous incidence and Google Trends data, our machine learning algorithm was able to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in most individual countries and territories accurately 7 days ahead.

Self-Management Status in Patients with Diabetes and Disease Control Indicators in Lamerd City, Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fereidoun Jahangir ◽  
Esmaeil Kavi ◽  
Behnam Masmouei ◽  
Mohammad-Rafi Bazrafshan ◽  
Hamed Delam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Waist Circumference ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
T Test ◽  
The Self ◽  
Self Management ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Mean

Background: Diabetes is a global epidemic with serious complication and there is a clear need for paying special attention to self-management as the cornerstone to optimal control of the disease. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the self-management status and its correlation to disease control indicators in people with diabetes. Methods: In a descriptive cross-sectional study, 220 patients were selected from the list of the referred patients available in Lamerd public health network from December 2014 to June 2015. In the first step, data about demographic information and disease control were collected from the patients’ records. In the second step, the self-management status of each patient was assessed by the Diabetes Self-Management Questionnaire developed by Schmitt et al. To analyze the data, independent sample t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used. Results: The mean age of the male and female participants was 56.43 ± 13.50 and 56.46 ± 10.49 years old, respectively. The mean duration of the disease was 6.67 ± 4.72 years for men and 7.07 ± 5.30 years for women. Twenty-one (25.9%) men and 60 (43.7%) women had a history of smoking. The results of the Pearson correlation coefficient showed that there was an inverse and statistically significant relationship between diabetes self-management status and weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, glucose tolerance test (GTT), LDL, and cholesterol. The results of the t-test did not show significant differences between the level of HbA1C (HbA1C7) and self-management scores of the patients (P > 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with better self-management status were in a better disease control condition with respect to weight, BMI, waist circumference, GTT, LDL, and cholesterol levels. Special attention to the control and management of LDL, cholesterol, HbA1C, BMI, and blood pressure levels is recommended in planning for these patients.

scholarly journals Methods of Estimating Correlation Coefficients in the Presence of Influential Outlier(s)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-185
Author(s):  
Etaga H.O. ◽  
Okoro I. ◽  
Aforka K.F. ◽  
Ngonadi L.O.
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Spearman Correlation ◽  
Correlation Methods ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Median Correlation ◽  
Standing Problem ◽  
Research Analysis

Correlation methods are indispensable in the study of the linear relationship between two variables. However, many researchers often adopt inappropriate correlation methods in the study of linear relationships which usually leads to unreliable results. Recurrently, most researchers ignorantly employ the Pearson method in a dataset that contained outliers, instead of more appropriate correlation methods such as Spearman, Kendall Tau, Median and Quadrant which might be suitable in the calculation of correlation coefficient in the presence of influential outliers. It is noted that the accuracy of estimation of correlation coefficients under outliers has been a long-standing problem for methodological researchers. This is due to low knowledge of correlation methods and their assumptions which have led to inappropriate application of correlation methods in research analysis. Five different methods of estimating correlation coefficients in the presence of influential outlier (contaminated data) were considered: Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Spearman Correlation Coefficient, Kendall Tau Correlation Coefficient, Median Correlation Coefficient and Quadrant Correlation Coefficient.

scholarly journals The effect of education and sporting experience of iranian premier league football players on their awareness of sports law

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (32) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Mahdi Azimi ◽  
Seyed Amir Reza Hosseinipour Rafsanjani ◽  
Mona Torkaman
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Football Players ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Spearman Correlation ◽  
Sports Law ◽  
Premier League ◽  
History Of ◽  
Kendall Correlation

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between education and athletic background of Premier League football players on their awareness of sports Law. In this study, descriptive-analytical method and Spearman correlation coefficient were used. Ninety-five percent level was used as the criterion for rejecting the hypothesis. Questionnaires about variables were used to identify the sample group and the main questions about players' legal awareness were used for data collection. The results showed that Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.107, Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.204 and Kendall correlation coefficient was 0.139 and significant was 0.88. There is no relationship between awareness of sports law and the history of sports in the Premier League. Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.388, Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.204 and Kendall correlation coefficient of 0.139 and significant value of 0.001 indicated that there is a relationship between sport legal awareness and education of the Iranian Premier League players.

scholarly journals Relation between serum vitamin B12 level and duration of treatment with carbamazepine in epilepsy patients

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 223
Author(s):  
Mohammad Tariqul Islam ◽  
Khair M. Sobhan ◽  
Mahjabin Rahman Shawly ◽  
Shafiqur Saleheen ◽  
Mohammad Masum Emran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Serum Vitamin ◽  
Vitamin B ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Duration Of Treatment ◽  
Epileptic Patients ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Mean

<p class="Abstract">Vitamin B<sub>12</sub> levels in the serum of 58 epileptic patients receiving only carbamazepine for at least 6 months were measured. Same number of epilepsy patients with no history of taking antiepileptic medicine were taken as control. The mean level of vitamin B<sub>12</sub> in carbamazepine-treated epileptic patients was 265.5 pg/mL whereas it was 478.3 pg/mL in control. Increased duration of treatment of carbamazepine in epilepsy caused significantly decreased level of serum vitamin B<sub>12 </sub>(Pearson correlation coefficient, r = -0.9, p&lt;0.0001). In conclusion, serum vitamin B<sub>12</sub> level significantly decreased in relation to duration of carbamazepine treatment in epileptic patients.</p>

scholarly journals Subclinical respiratory dysfunction in chronic cervical cord compression: a pulmonary function test correlation

2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. E3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Indira Devi Bhagavatula ◽  
Dhananjaya I. Bhat ◽  
Gopalakrishnan M. Sasidharan ◽  
Rakesh Kumar Mishra ◽  
Praful Suresh Maste ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Function ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Respiratory Function ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Cord Compression ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Respiratory Dysfunction ◽  
Control Value ◽  
Cord Injury ◽  
The Mean

OBJECTIVE Respiratory abnormalities are well documented in acute spinal cord injury; however, the literature available for respiratory dysfunction in chronic compressive myelopathy (CCM) is limited. Respiratory dysfunction in CCM is often subtle and subclinical. The authors studied the pattern of respiratory dysfunction in patients with chronic cord compression by using spirometry, and the clinical and surgical implications of this dysfunction. In this study they also attempted to address the postoperative respiratory function in these patients. METHODS A prospective study was done in 30 patients in whom cervical CCM due to either cervical spondylosis or ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) was diagnosed. Thirty age-matched healthy volunteers were recruited as controls. None of the patients included in the study had any symptoms or signs of respiratory dysfunction. After clinical and radiological diagnosis, all patients underwent pulmonary function tests (PFTs) performed using a standardized Spirometry Kit Micro before and after surgery. The data were analyzed using Statistical Software SPSS version 13.0. Comparison between the 2 groups was done using the Student t-test. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used for PFT results and Nurick classification scores. A p value < 0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (prolapsed intervertebral disc) was the predominant cause of compression (n = 21, 70%) followed by OPLL (n = 9, 30%). The average patient age was 45.06 years. Degenerative cervical spine disease has a relatively younger onset in the Indian population. The majority of the patients (n = 28, 93.3%) had compression at or above the C-5 level. Ten patients (33.3%) underwent an anterior approach and discectomy, 11 patients (36.7%) underwent decompressive laminectomy, and the remaining 9 underwent either corpectomy with fusion or laminoplasty. The mean preoperative forced vital capacity (FVC) (65%) of the patients was significantly lower than that of the controls (88%) (p < 0.001). The mean postoperative FVC (73.7%) in the patients showed significant improvement compared with the preoperative values (p = 0.003). The mean postoperative FVC was still significantly lower than the control value (p = 0.002). The mean preoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) (72%) of the patients was significantly lower than that of the controls (96%) (p < 0.001). The mean postoperative FEV1 (75.3%) in the cases showed no significant improvement compared with the preoperative values (p = 0.212). The mean postoperative FEV1 was still significantly lower than the control value (p < 0.001). The mean postoperative FEV1/FVC was not significantly different from the control value (p = 0.204). The mean postoperative peak expiratory flow rate was significantly lower than the control value (p = 0.01). The mean postoperative maximal voluntary ventilation was still significantly lower than the control value (p < 0.001). On correlating the FVC and Nurick scores using the Pearson correlation coefficient, a negative correlation was found. CONCLUSIONS There is subclinical respiratory dysfunction and significant impairment of various lung capacities in patients with CCM. The FVC showed significant improvement postoperatively. Respiratory function needs to be evaluated and monitored to avoid potential respiratory complications.

Internal Fixation of Osteochondral Lesion of the Talus Involving a Large Bone Fragment

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1031-1039
Author(s):  
Young Rak Choi ◽  
Bom Soo Kim ◽  
Yu Mi Kim ◽  
Jae Yong Park ◽  
Jae Ho Cho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Internal Fixation ◽  
Ct Scan ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Osteochondral Lesion ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Skeletally Immature ◽  
Bone Fragment ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Large Bone

Background: Internal fixation of an osteochondral lesion of the talus (OLT) can restore the congruency of the talus and maintain the subchondral bone and innate hyaline cartilage. However, OLT that is indicated for fixation is rarely encountered; hence, not many studies report on the results after the procedure. Purpose: To evaluate the clinical and radiological outcomes after internal fixation of chronic OLT involving a large bone fragment of at least 10 mm in diameter and 3 mm in depth on computed tomography (CT). Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the data of 26 patients with OLT treated with internal fixation between August 2014 and April 2018. Of the patients, 15 were male and 11 were female, with a mean age of 16 years (range, 11-29 years). The primary radiological outcome measurement was bone union assessed on the 6-month postoperative CT scan. Clinical outcomes were assessed at a mean of 27.7 months postoperatively. Results: Twenty patients (77%) achieved bone union on postoperative CT scan. The mean 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS) improved from 30.5 ± 8.5 preoperatively to 13.4 ± 9.7 postoperatively ( P < .001). The mean Foot Function Index (FFI) improved from 30.5 ± 6.7 preoperatively to 13.7 ± 9.8 postoperatively ( P < .001). A malleolar osteotomy was not necessary to approach the lesion in 88% of patients. A bone fragment with an irregular margin and low density on the preoperative CT scan was significantly associated with nonunion (odds ratio: 7.67, 95% confidence interval: 2.67 to 22.02, P = .008). The difference in clinical outcomes between patients with skeletally immature ankles and those with skeletally mature ankles was not statistically significant. Patient age did not correlate with postoperative 100-mm VAS (Pearson correlation coefficient, r = −0.07, P = 0.72) or the postoperative FFI (Pearson correlation coefficient, r = –0.05, P = .80). Conclusion: Internal fixation of an OLT involving a large bone fragment resulted in satisfactory clinical and radiologic outcomes. We found that patients with skeletally immature and mature ankles attained healing at comparable rates after the internal fixation of OLT.

scholarly journals Addressing Class Overlap under Imbalanced Distribution: An Improved Method and Two Metrics

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1649
Author(s):  
Zhuang Li ◽  
Jingyan Qin ◽  
Xiaotong Zhang ◽  
Yadong Wan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Theoretical Analysis ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Class Imbalance ◽  
Classification Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Improved Method ◽  
Imbalanced Datasets

Class imbalance, as a phenomenon of asymmetry, has an adverse effect on the performance of most machine learning and overlap is another important factor that affects the classification performance of machine learning algorithms. This paper deals with the two factors simultaneously, addressing the class overlap under imbalanced distribution. In this paper, a theoretical analysis is firstly conducted on the existing class overlap metrics. Then, an improved method and the corresponding metrics to evaluate the class overlap under imbalance distributions are proposed based on the theoretical analysis. A well-known collection of the imbalanced datasets is used to compare the performance of different metrics and the performance is evaluated based on the Pearson correlation coefficient and the ξ correlation coefficient. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed class overlap metrics outperform other compared metrics for the imbalanced datasets and the Pearson correlation coefficient with the AUC metric of eight algorithms can be improved by 34.7488% in average.

scholarly journals Correlation between Creativity and Entrepreneurial Skills in Managers of Educational Hospitals

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 240-250
Author(s):  
Mahdi Amraei ◽  
Mahdi Rezheh ◽  
Mahshid Salari Hamzekhani ◽  
Farzad Faraji-Khiavi
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Work Experience ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Teaching Hospitals ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Managerial Skills ◽  
Entrepreneurial Skills ◽  
The Mean

Background and Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between creativity and entrepreneurial skills in health system managers of the educational hospitals. Material and Methods This research is descriptive-analytical and applied in terms of purpose. The study population includes the managers of teaching hospitals in Ahvaz, south west Iran. The data was collected by census method from 110 senior and middle managers by validated questionnaire. Data were analyzed using absolute and relative frequency, mean, standard deviation, independent samples t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation coefficient and stepwise linear regression in SPSS software version 22. Results The mean score of creativity for managers was 44.74 7.91. 64.6% of the managers were highly creative and 35.4% of them were considered relatively creative. The average score of entrepreneurial skills of managers was 3 0.67 and was estimated to be appropriate. The correlation between creativity and entrepreneurial skills was 0.645, which showed a positive and strong relationship between these two variables (P <0.001). Simple linear regression showed that managerial skills among entrepreneurial skills determine 44.4% of creativity (P <0.001). Conclusion It is suggested to strengthen the level of managerial skills among managers by training courses Extended Abstract Background and Objectives Since creativity is assumed to be the mainstay of the spirit of entrepreneurship, thereforeit is necessary due measures be taken to establish the degree of creativity of health managers if one is to have any reasonable hope of developing enterepreueship in healthcare organizations. One way to do so might be to assess health managers’ creativity and determine if there is a correlation between their creativity and entrepreurship. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the correlation between creativity and entrepreneurship skills among managers of educational hospitals in Ahvaz. Material and Methods This research was descriptive-analytical and applied in terms of purpose. The present research population consisted of managers of educational hospitals in Ahvaz city and data were collected by census method from 110 senior (management, metrons, educational assistants of hospitals) and mid-level (Supervisors, Head Nurses, Service Officers, Heads of Finance and Administration, Laboratory and Radiology Officers) managers through a questionnaire. In this study, two questionnaires were used: the Creativity Questionnaire, developed by Dorabjee et al., and the Smith Entrepreneurship Skills Questionnaire. The former consists of 12 five-point Likert scale items indicating the extent of the organization's support for creativity while the latter consists of 16 questions summarized in four components with each component having four questions. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed in accordance with professors’ and experts’ opinions. The reliability of the questionnaires was estimated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, which was 0.83 and 0.88 for for creativity questionnaire and entrepreneurial skills questionnaire, respectively. Data were analyzed using absolute and relative frequency, mean, standard deviation, independent samples t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation coefficient and stepwise linear regression in SPSS software version 22. Results The mean score of creativity for managers was 44.74±7.91. 64.6% of managers were found to be very creative and 35.4% were relatively creative. The mean score of managers' entrepreneurship skills was 3±0.67 which was considered at an appropriate level. Pearson correlation coefficient was estimated -0.27 (P=0.017) between age and creativity and-0.31 (P=0.04) between work experience and creativity indicating a small size and negative correlation between the former variables and a moderate and negative correlation between the latter ones. Likewise, Pearson correlation coefficient between age and entrepreneurial skills was calculated -0.28 (P=0.01) pointing to a small size and negative correlation between these two variables. As for the correlation coefficient between work experience and entrepreneurial skills was -0.32 (P=0.005) showing that these two variables have a moderate negative correlation. However, creativity and entrepreneurial skills were found to be positively and strongly correlated (r= 0.645, P<0.001). Simple linear regression showed that managerial skills among entrepreneurial skills come to determine 44.4% of creativity (P<0.001). Conclusion Managers of Ahvaz teaching hospitals were found to possess the required level of creativity and entrepreneurial skills as measured by the research tools in the present study with the creativity component showing a strong correlation with entrepreneurial skills. Management skills might be the most important indicators of creativity among hospital managers, it is suggested the barriers to creativity in the organization be removed, a financial system be formulated to encourage entrepreneurs, support creativity and innovation in the organization by formulating the necessary policies and guidelines, as well as holding classes and training courses to strengthen management skills among managers. Also, given the negative correlation between age/work experience on the one hand, and creativy/entrepreneurial skills on the other, it seems reasonable that due measures had best be taken to pave the way for the younger generation taking on managerial responsibilities. Practical implications of research The findings of the present study seem to point toa strong and significant relationship between creativity and entrepreneurial skills. Therefore, appropriate training programs should be designed and implemented to increase the creativity of hospital managers. Also, due to the high level of creativity and entrepreneurial skills of the managers of educational hospitals in Ahvaz, the trustees should take action to provide the best possible conditions for benefiting from this capacity. Ethical considerations Observance of ethical instructions: This study is based on the protocols of the ethics committee in the research of Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences with the code of ethics number IR.AJUMS.REC.1399.269 and also the study was conducted with the consent of the statistical population of the study. Conflict of interest The authors state that there is no conflict of interest in the present study. Aknowledgment This research has been done with the financial support of the Student Research Committee of Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences with the number 99S27. The authors are grateful to all the directors who participated in this study.

Single- versus multiple-item assessment of quality of life in patients with advanced cancer

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e20528-e20528
Author(s):  
S. H. Bush ◽  
H. A. Parsons ◽  
J. L. Palmer ◽  
R. Chacko ◽  
Z. Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Spearman Correlation ◽  
Symptom Intensity

e20528 Background: The main objective of palliative cancer care is to improve quality of life (QOL). As multiple dimensions impact on the construct of QOL, multi-dimensional instruments are usually used in its measurement. These are time consuming and burdensome for repeated use. Recent authors have suggested that brief single-item global assessments can provide a reliable measure of QOL. We assessed the performance of the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System ‘feeling of well-being’ item (ESAS WB) using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - General (FACT-G) instrument as a gold standard. Methods: After obtaining IRB approval, we reviewed the data from 213 advanced cancer patients who had participated in six studies from March 2006 to June 2008 and determined the level of association between baseline ESAS WB and FACT-G total score and subscale domains (Physical (Pwb), Social/Family (Swb), Emotional (Ewb), and Functional (Fwb) Well-Being) and also the 9 ESAS symptom intensity scores using Spearman correlation coefficients. We also calculated the change between the baseline (T1) and second (T2) observations of ESAS WB and of FACT-G total score and determined their level of association using a Pearson correlation coefficient. In addition, we predicted the change in FACT-G as predicted by the change in ESAS WB score using regression analysis. Results: Mean age was 60 (SD 12) years and 48% were female. At T1, the Spearman correlation coefficient of ESAS WB and FACT-G was -0.48 (p<0.0001). Spearman correlation coefficients for ESAS WB and FACT-G subscale domains and ESAS symptom intensity scores were also highly significant (p<0.0001) for all physical and emotional symptoms (other than p=0.003 for nausea) except for FACT Swb (p=0.08). The Pearson correlation coefficient for difference between T1 and T2 in ESAS WB and FACT-G for 146 patients was -0.36 (p<0.0001). The regression analysis was highly significant (p<0.0001). The change in ESAS WB corresponding to FACT-G published minimally important difference (MID) was -0.24 for 3, -1.55 for 5, and -2.87 for 7, respectively. Conclusions: ESAS WB is a practical instrument for clinical use and best reflects the Pwb, Ewb and Fwb domains of FACT-G as compared to Swb. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

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