Self-Management Status in Patients with Diabetes and Disease Control Indicators in Lamerd City, Iran

Background: Diabetes is a global epidemic with serious complication and there is a clear need for paying special attention to self-management as the cornerstone to optimal control of the disease. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the self-management status and its correlation to disease control indicators in people with diabetes. Methods: In a descriptive cross-sectional study, 220 patients were selected from the list of the referred patients available in Lamerd public health network from December 2014 to June 2015. In the first step, data about demographic information and disease control were collected from the patients’ records. In the second step, the self-management status of each patient was assessed by the Diabetes Self-Management Questionnaire developed by Schmitt et al. To analyze the data, independent sample t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used. Results: The mean age of the male and female participants was 56.43 ± 13.50 and 56.46 ± 10.49 years old, respectively. The mean duration of the disease was 6.67 ± 4.72 years for men and 7.07 ± 5.30 years for women. Twenty-one (25.9%) men and 60 (43.7%) women had a history of smoking. The results of the Pearson correlation coefficient showed that there was an inverse and statistically significant relationship between diabetes self-management status and weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, glucose tolerance test (GTT), LDL, and cholesterol. The results of the t-test did not show significant differences between the level of HbA1C (HbA1C7) and self-management scores of the patients (P > 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with better self-management status were in a better disease control condition with respect to weight, BMI, waist circumference, GTT, LDL, and cholesterol levels. Special attention to the control and management of LDL, cholesterol, HbA1C, BMI, and blood pressure levels is recommended in planning for these patients.

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A Quantitative Comparison of Multispectral Refraction Topography and Autorefractometer in Young Adults

Frontiers in Medicine ◽

10.3389/fmed.2021.715640 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Yunru Liao ◽

Zhenlan Yang ◽

Zijing Li ◽

Rui Zeng ◽

Jing Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Intraclass Correlation ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

High Agreement ◽

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients ◽

Repeatability And Reproducibility ◽

The Mean

Purpose: Purpose of this study is to evaluate the measuring consistency of central refraction between multispectral refraction topography (MRT) and autorefractometry.Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study including subjects in Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital from September 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, ages 20 to 35 years with a best corrected visual acuity of 20/20 or better. All patients underwent cycloplegia, and the refractive status was estimated with autorefractometer, experienced optometrist and MRT. We analyzed the central refraction of the autorefractometer and MRT. The repeatability and reproducibility of values measured using both devices were evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs).Results: A total of 145 subjects ages 20 to 35 (290 eyes) were enrolled. The mean central refraction of the autorefractometer was −4.69 ± 2.64 diopters (D) (range −9.50 to +4.75 D), while the mean central refraction of MRT was −4.49 ± 2.61 diopters (D) (range −8.79 to +5.02 D). Pearson correlation analysis revealed a high correlation between the two devices. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) also showed high agreement. The intrarater and interrater ICC values of central refraction were more than 0.90 in both devices and conditions. At the same time, the mean central refraction of experienced optometrist was −4.74 ± 2.66 diopters (D) (range −9.50 to +4.75D). The intra-class correlation coefficient of central refraction measured by MRT and subjective refraction was 0.939.Conclusions: Results revealed that autorefractometry, experienced optometrist and MRT show high agreement in measuring central refraction. MRT could provide a potential objective method to assess peripheral refraction.

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Calculation of Bioavailable and Free Testosterone in Men: A Comparison of 5 Published Algorithms

Clinical Chemistry ◽

10.1373/clinchem.2005.063354 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 52 (9) ◽

pp. 1777-1784 ◽

Cited By ~ 89

Author(s):

Willem de Ronde ◽

Yvonne T van der Schouw ◽

Huibert AP Pols ◽

Louis JG Gooren ◽

Majon Muller ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Free Testosterone ◽

Sex Hormone Binding Globulin ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Serum Concentrations ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Background Estimation ◽

Local Setting ◽

Single Center Study

Abstract Background: Estimation of serum concentrations of free testosterone (FT) and bioavailable testosterone (bioT) by calculation is an inexpensive and uncomplicated method. We compared results obtained with 5 different algorithms. Methods: We used 5 different published algorithms [described by Sodergard et al. (bioTS and FTS), Vermeulen et al. (bioTV and FTV), Emadi-Konjin et al. (bioTE), Morris et al. (bioTM), and Ly et al. (FTL)] to estimate bioT and FT concentrations in samples obtained from 399 independently living men (ages 40–80 years) participating in a cross-sectional, single-center study. Results: Mean bioT was highest for bioTS (10.4 nmol/L) and lowest for bioTE (3.87 nmol/L). Mean FT was highest for FTS (0.41 nmol/L), followed by FTV (0.35 nmol/L), and FTL (0.29 nmol/L). For bioT concentrations, the Pearson correlation coefficient was highest for the association between bioTS and bioTV (r = 0.98) and lowest between bioTM and bioTE (r = 0.66). FTL was significantly associated with both FTS (r = 0.96) and FTV (r = 0.88). The Pearson correlation coefficient for the association between FTL and bioTM almost reached 1.0. Bland-Altman analysis showed large differences between the results of different algorithms. BioTM, bioTE, bioTV, and FTL were all significantly associated with sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) concentrations. Conclusion: Algorithms to calculate FT and bioT must be revalidated in the local setting, otherwise over- or underestimation of FT and bioT concentrations can occur. Additionally, confounding of the results by SHBG concentrations may be introduced.

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Clinical Reliability of Different Facial Measurements in Determining Vertical Dimension of Occlusion in Dentulous and Edentulous Subjects

International Journal of Prosthodontics and Restorative Dentistry ◽

10.5005/jp-journals-10019-1110 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 68-77 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yashpal Singh ◽

Anchal Brar ◽

Khurshid A Mattoo ◽

Manas Singh ◽

Puneet Raj Singh Khurana ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

T Test ◽

Vertical Dimension ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Age Group ◽

Facial Landmarks ◽

Anterior Nasal Spine ◽

The Difference

ABSTRACT Purpose To determine the variations in average distances between various facial landmarks used to determine the vertical dimension of rest and occlusion among dentulous and edentulous subjects. Besides determining the reliability of these facial measurements against commonly used Chin-Nose distance, this study would also compare the difference between cephalometric landmarks (anterior nasal Spine-Menton) with the Chin-Nose distance (Niswonger's method). Materials and methods To standardize the measurement and minimize errors associated with observer and subject movement, a novel instrument was designed in the form of an apparatus and was named as subject and device stabilizing apparatus (SDSA). One hundred and twenty subjects, in the age group of 30 to 60 years, were selected and divided into two equal groups which were further subdivided into subgroups. Measurements were recorded with the help of a digital vernier that was attached to the apparatus. The various facial measure- ments studied were Pupil-Stomion, Glabella-Subnasion, Pupil-Pupil and Angle-Angle both at rest and in occlusion. These measurements were then compared with Chin-Nose and anterior nasal Spine-Menton distance. Differences between the dentulous and edentulous subjects at rest and at occlusion were noted and statistically analyzed using unpaired ‘t’ test and Karl Pearson correlation coefficient. Results Among the six measurements Chin-Nose, Glabella- Subnasion, Pupil-Stomion and anterior nasal Spine-Menton were closely associated between dentulous and edentulous subjects both at rest and at occlusion. Among all facial and cephalometric measurement the facial parameter of Pupil- Stomion illustrates the least deviation in edentulous (1.318) and dentulous (1.381) subjects at rest, whereas anterior nasal Spine-Menton displays least deviation in edentulous (2.751) and dentulous (1.224) subjects at occlusion. Conclusion The average facial measurements in dentulous subjects were more than measurements in edentulous subjects and among various facial measurements, Pupil-Stomion and anterior nasal Spine-Menton distance can be used clinically as a guide to verify vertical dimension of occlusion. How to cite this article Brar A, Mattoo KA, Singh Y, Singh M, Khurana PRS, Singh M. Clinical Reliability of Different Facial Measurements in Determining Vertical Dimension of Occlusion in Dentulous and Edentulous Subjects. Int J Prosthodont Restor Dent 2014;4(3):68-77.

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The Impact of Electromagnetic Waves At The Full Moon on Some Physiological Changes Among the Students of The Faculty of Sport Sciences At Mu'tah University

Journal of Sociological Research ◽

10.5296/jsr.v5i1.4839 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 1 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Baker Sulaiman Thuneibat

Keyword(s):

Blood Glucose ◽

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Electromagnetic Waves ◽

Full Moon ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

T Test ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Physiological Changes ◽

The Impact ◽

Mu'tah University

This study aims to identify the impact of electromagnetic waves at the full moon on some physiological changes among the students of the Faculty of Sport Sciences at Mu'tah University. The study sample consisted of 20 students from the Faculty of Sport Sciences at Mu'tah University. Many statistical methods have been used in order to answer the questions of the study (Means, standard deviations, T-Test Independent Samples, Pearson correlation coefficient. The results of (T-Test Independent Samples) for the significance of the pre and post difference showed that there are statistically significant differences for the variables of (heart pulse, blood glucose, systolic pressure and diastolic pressure). The results of Pearson correlation coefficient test for the pre and post measurement also showed that there are statistically significant differences for the physiological variable of (blood glucose) with regard to the variable of age. The study recommended not to rely on the reading of the heart pulse during the days of the full moon as an indicator of the heart pulse, especially for females. The study also recommends to conduct similar studies in different places of hot and cold climates or high and low altitudes .

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Relation between serum vitamin B12 level and duration of treatment with carbamazepine in epilepsy patients

Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University Journal ◽

10.3329/bsmmuj.v9i4.30371 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 223

Author(s):

Mohammad Tariqul Islam ◽

Khair M. Sobhan ◽

Mahjabin Rahman Shawly ◽

Shafiqur Saleheen ◽

Mohammad Masum Emran ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Serum Vitamin ◽

Vitamin B ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Duration Of Treatment ◽

Epileptic Patients ◽

History Of ◽

The Mean

Vitamin B12 levels in the serum of 58 epileptic patients receiving only carbamazepine for at least 6 months were measured. Same number of epilepsy patients with no history of taking antiepileptic medicine were taken as control. The mean level of vitamin B12 in carbamazepine-treated epileptic patients was 265.5 pg/mL whereas it was 478.3 pg/mL in control. Increased duration of treatment of carbamazepine in epilepsy caused significantly decreased level of serum vitamin B12 (Pearson correlation coefficient, r = -0.9, p<0.0001). In conclusion, serum vitamin B12 level significantly decreased in relation to duration of carbamazepine treatment in epileptic patients.

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Subclinical respiratory dysfunction in chronic cervical cord compression: a pulmonary function test correlation

Neurosurgical FOCUS ◽

10.3171/2016.3.focus1647 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 40 (6) ◽

pp. E3 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Indira Devi Bhagavatula ◽

Dhananjaya I. Bhat ◽

Gopalakrishnan M. Sasidharan ◽

Rakesh Kumar Mishra ◽

Praful Suresh Maste ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pulmonary Function ◽

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Respiratory Function ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Cord Compression ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Respiratory Dysfunction ◽

Control Value ◽

Cord Injury ◽

The Mean

OBJECTIVE Respiratory abnormalities are well documented in acute spinal cord injury; however, the literature available for respiratory dysfunction in chronic compressive myelopathy (CCM) is limited. Respiratory dysfunction in CCM is often subtle and subclinical. The authors studied the pattern of respiratory dysfunction in patients with chronic cord compression by using spirometry, and the clinical and surgical implications of this dysfunction. In this study they also attempted to address the postoperative respiratory function in these patients. METHODS A prospective study was done in 30 patients in whom cervical CCM due to either cervical spondylosis or ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) was diagnosed. Thirty age-matched healthy volunteers were recruited as controls. None of the patients included in the study had any symptoms or signs of respiratory dysfunction. After clinical and radiological diagnosis, all patients underwent pulmonary function tests (PFTs) performed using a standardized Spirometry Kit Micro before and after surgery. The data were analyzed using Statistical Software SPSS version 13.0. Comparison between the 2 groups was done using the Student t-test. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used for PFT results and Nurick classification scores. A p value < 0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (prolapsed intervertebral disc) was the predominant cause of compression (n = 21, 70%) followed by OPLL (n = 9, 30%). The average patient age was 45.06 years. Degenerative cervical spine disease has a relatively younger onset in the Indian population. The majority of the patients (n = 28, 93.3%) had compression at or above the C-5 level. Ten patients (33.3%) underwent an anterior approach and discectomy, 11 patients (36.7%) underwent decompressive laminectomy, and the remaining 9 underwent either corpectomy with fusion or laminoplasty. The mean preoperative forced vital capacity (FVC) (65%) of the patients was significantly lower than that of the controls (88%) (p < 0.001). The mean postoperative FVC (73.7%) in the patients showed significant improvement compared with the preoperative values (p = 0.003). The mean postoperative FVC was still significantly lower than the control value (p = 0.002). The mean preoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) (72%) of the patients was significantly lower than that of the controls (96%) (p < 0.001). The mean postoperative FEV1 (75.3%) in the cases showed no significant improvement compared with the preoperative values (p = 0.212). The mean postoperative FEV1 was still significantly lower than the control value (p < 0.001). The mean postoperative FEV1/FVC was not significantly different from the control value (p = 0.204). The mean postoperative peak expiratory flow rate was significantly lower than the control value (p = 0.01). The mean postoperative maximal voluntary ventilation was still significantly lower than the control value (p < 0.001). On correlating the FVC and Nurick scores using the Pearson correlation coefficient, a negative correlation was found. CONCLUSIONS There is subclinical respiratory dysfunction and significant impairment of various lung capacities in patients with CCM. The FVC showed significant improvement postoperatively. Respiratory function needs to be evaluated and monitored to avoid potential respiratory complications.

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Internal Fixation of Osteochondral Lesion of the Talus Involving a Large Bone Fragment

The American Journal of Sports Medicine ◽

10.1177/0363546520988739 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 49 (4) ◽

pp. 1031-1039

Author(s):

Young Rak Choi ◽

Bom Soo Kim ◽

Yu Mi Kim ◽

Jae Yong Park ◽

Jae Ho Cho ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Internal Fixation ◽

Ct Scan ◽

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Osteochondral Lesion ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Skeletally Immature ◽

Bone Fragment ◽

The Mean ◽

Large Bone

Background: Internal fixation of an osteochondral lesion of the talus (OLT) can restore the congruency of the talus and maintain the subchondral bone and innate hyaline cartilage. However, OLT that is indicated for fixation is rarely encountered; hence, not many studies report on the results after the procedure. Purpose: To evaluate the clinical and radiological outcomes after internal fixation of chronic OLT involving a large bone fragment of at least 10 mm in diameter and 3 mm in depth on computed tomography (CT). Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the data of 26 patients with OLT treated with internal fixation between August 2014 and April 2018. Of the patients, 15 were male and 11 were female, with a mean age of 16 years (range, 11-29 years). The primary radiological outcome measurement was bone union assessed on the 6-month postoperative CT scan. Clinical outcomes were assessed at a mean of 27.7 months postoperatively. Results: Twenty patients (77%) achieved bone union on postoperative CT scan. The mean 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS) improved from 30.5 ± 8.5 preoperatively to 13.4 ± 9.7 postoperatively ( P < .001). The mean Foot Function Index (FFI) improved from 30.5 ± 6.7 preoperatively to 13.7 ± 9.8 postoperatively ( P < .001). A malleolar osteotomy was not necessary to approach the lesion in 88% of patients. A bone fragment with an irregular margin and low density on the preoperative CT scan was significantly associated with nonunion (odds ratio: 7.67, 95% confidence interval: 2.67 to 22.02, P = .008). The difference in clinical outcomes between patients with skeletally immature ankles and those with skeletally mature ankles was not statistically significant. Patient age did not correlate with postoperative 100-mm VAS (Pearson correlation coefficient, r = −0.07, P = 0.72) or the postoperative FFI (Pearson correlation coefficient, r = –0.05, P = .80). Conclusion: Internal fixation of an OLT involving a large bone fragment resulted in satisfactory clinical and radiologic outcomes. We found that patients with skeletally immature and mature ankles attained healing at comparable rates after the internal fixation of OLT.

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Correlations of Prostate Volume with PSA Levels in BPH Patients at Ulin General Hospital Banjarmasin

Berkala Kedokteran ◽

10.20527/jbk.v17i1.10245 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 15

Author(s):

Nur Ramadhanti Cindy Levissa ◽

Eka Yudha Rahman ◽

Dewi Indah Noviana Pratiwi ◽

Heru Prasetya ◽

Siti Kaidah

Keyword(s):

Data Analysis ◽

General Hospital ◽

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Strong Correlation ◽

Prostate Volume ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

P Value ◽

Analytic Method ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Cross Sectional

Abstract: This study aims to determine the association between prostate volume and PSA levels in BPH patients at Ulin Hospital Banjarmasin. This study used a cross-sectional retrospective approach and analytic method. A total of 52 samples were obtained by purposive sampling based on inclusion and exclusion criterias. The highest prostate volume of 20.00-39.99 cc was obtained from 16 patients (30.7%) and the lowest volume of 60.00-79.99 cc was obtained from 10 patients (19.2%). Examination of PSA levels were highest at 2.6-9.9 ng/mL from 24 patients (46.2%) and the lowest at >20.0 ng/mL (5.8%) from 3 patients. Data analysis using Pearson correlation coefficient showed a positive correlation between prostate volume and PSA levels in BPH patients at Ulin Hospital Banjarmasin with a p value = 0,000 and r = 0.616 (positive and strong correlation). Keywords: BPH, Prostate volume, PSA

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Korelasi IgE terhadap rasio neutrofil/eosinofil jaringan dan darah penderita rinosinusitis kronik Aspergillus fumigatus

Oto Rhino Laryngologica Indonesiana ◽

10.32637/orli.v48i1.255 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 48 (1) ◽

pp. 46

Author(s):

Fifin Pradina Duhitatrissari ◽

Endang Retnoningsih ◽

Iriana Maharani

Keyword(s):

Aspergillus Fumigatus ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

T Test ◽

Blood Levels ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Pearson Correlation Test ◽

The Mean ◽

Polymerase Chain ◽

Paired T Test

Latar Belakang: Prevalensi rinosinusitis kronik (RSK) jamur saat ini cenderung meningkat. Jamurberperan sebagai mikroorganisme dan merupakan salah satu penyebab RSK. Pemeriksaan immunoglobulinE (IgE) Aspergillus fumigatus (Af) digunakan untuk menegakkan diagnosis rinosinusitis jamur tanpa harusmelalui tindakan invasif. Perubahan rasio neutrofil/eosinofil (RNE) digunakan untuk memahami responinflamasinya. Tujuan: Mengetahui korelasi antara kadar IgE Af terhadap perubahan RNE mukosa dandarah pada penderita RSK jamur. Metode: Penelitian cross sectional, melibatkan 13 subjek penelitiandengan pengambilan darah dan mukosa sinus maksila untuk diidentifikasi Af dengan Polymerase ChainReaction (PCR), dilanjutkan ELISA untuk mengukur kadar IgE Af serta flowcytometry untuk mengukurkadar neutrofil dan eosinofil mukosa sinus maksila dan darah. Hasil: Rerata IgE Af mukosa 1,112±0,883kU/mL, darah 1,041±0,876 kU/mL (N<0,35 kU/L). Dengan uji T berpasangan didapatkan kesesuaian antarakadar IgE Af darah dan mukosa (p=0,852). Rerata eosinofil mukosa 3,9±1,92% (N:0,3-0,7%) dan darah4,88±2,02% (N:3-9%). Rerata neutrofil mukosa 4,28±2,04 (N:1,1-1,7%) dan darah 49,41±13,98% (N:55,8-59,6%). Rerata RNE mukosa 1,77±2,28 (N:2,8). Rerata RNE darah 12,12 ± 6,25 (N:9,6). Didapatkan93,3% mukosa subjek penelitian mengalami inflamasi eosinofilik, 53,3% mengalami inflamasi eosinofilikpada darah. Dengan uji T berpasangan terdapat ketidaksesuaian RNE mukosa dengan darah (p:0,000).Tes korelasi Pearson antara IgE Af dengan RNE mukosa, tidak terdapat korelasi bermakna (p:0,523) danantara IgE Af dengan RNE darah, tidak terdapat korelasi bermakna (p:0,607). Kesimpulan: Terdapatkesesuaian antara kadar IgE Af mukosa dan darah, tetapi tidak terdapat kesesuaian antara RNE mukosadan darah. Tidak terdapat korelasi antara peningkatan kadar IgE Af dengan RNE pada mukosa dan darah. ABSTRACTBackground: The prevalence of chronic fungal rhinosinusitis (CFR) nowadays tends to increase.Fungi act as microorganisms and is one of the causes of chronic rhinosinusitis. The examination ofimmunoglobulin E (IgE) Aspergillus fumigatus (Af) is applied to establish the diagnosis of CFR withouthaving to do invasive actions. Neutrophil/eosinophil ratio (NER) changes are used to understand theinflammatory response. Purpose: To determine the correlation between IgE Af levels on changes ofmucosal and blood NER in CFR patients. Method: A cross-sectional study, involving 13 subjects bytaking sample of the blood and maxillary sinus mucosa to identify Af with Polymerase Chain Reaction(PCR), followed by ELISA to measure the levels of IgE Af, and flowcytometry to measure the levels ofneutrophils and eosinophils of the blood and mucosa of maxillary sinuses. Results: The mean IgE ofmucosa: 1.112±0.883kU/mL, and of blood: 1.041± 0.876kU/mL (N<0.35kU/L). With paired T-test,there was a match between blood and mucosal IgE level (p=0.852). The mean eosinophil of mucosa:3.9±1.92%,(N:0.3-0.7%) and of blood 4.88±2.02% (N:3-9%). The mean neutrophil of mucosa:4.28±2.04%(N:1.1-1.7%) and of blood 49.41± 13.98%(N:55.8-59.6%). The mean NER of mucosa:1.77±2.28(N:2.8), and of blood: 12.12±6.25(N:9.6). It was revealed that 93.3% of mucosal subjects hadeosinophilic inflammation, 53.3% had eosinophilic inflammation in blood. With paired T-test there wasa mucosal NER mismatch with blood (p:0.000). The Pearson correlation-test between IgE Af and NERmucosa had no significant correlation (p:0.523), and between IgE Af with NER of blood there was no significant correlation (p:0.607). Conclusion: There was a correspondence between IgE Af of mucosaand blood levels, but there was no match between the mucosal and blood NERs. There was no correlationbetween elevated levels of IgE Af and NER in the mucosa and blood.

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Real-time Prediction of the Daily Incidence of COVID-19 in 215 Countries and Territories Using Machine Learning: Model Development and Validation (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.24285 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yuanyuan Peng ◽

Xinjian Chen ◽

Yibiao Rong ◽

Chi Pui Pang ◽

Xinjian Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Real Time ◽

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Google Trends ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Spearman Correlation ◽

Time Prediction ◽

Search Volume ◽

The Mean

BACKGROUND Advanced prediction of the daily incidence of COVID-19 can aid policy making on the prevention of disease spread, which can profoundly affect people's livelihood. In previous studies, predictions were investigated for single or several countries and territories. OBJECTIVE We aimed to develop models that can be applied for real-time prediction of COVID-19 activity in all individual countries and territories worldwide. METHODS Data of the previous daily incidence and infoveillance data (search volume data via Google Trends) from 215 individual countries and territories were collected. A random forest regression algorithm was used to train models to predict the daily new confirmed cases 7 days ahead. Several methods were used to optimize the models, including clustering the countries and territories, selecting features according to the importance scores, performing multiple-step forecasting, and upgrading the models at regular intervals. The performance of the models was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient, and Spearman correlation coefficient. RESULTS Our models can accurately predict the daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in most countries and territories. Of the 215 countries and territories under study, 198 (92.1%) had MAEs <10 and 187 (87.0%) had Pearson correlation coefficients >0.8. For the 215 countries and territories, the mean MAE was 5.42 (range 0.26-15.32), the mean RMSE was 9.27 (range 1.81-24.40), the mean Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.89 (range 0.08-0.99), and the mean Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.84 (range 0.2-1.00). CONCLUSIONS By integrating previous incidence and Google Trends data, our machine learning algorithm was able to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in most individual countries and territories accurately 7 days ahead.

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