A study of cointegration of gold market of the emerging and developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-17
Author(s):  
Ajay Sidana ◽  
Neeru Sidana ◽  
Rohit Sood
Keyword(s):  
Gold Price ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Gold Market ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Ancient Times

Gold, which is considered to be the most precious metal (Bilal, Talib, Haq, Khan, & Naveed, 2013), from ancient times has been considered as a very conservative investment. Studies examining the utility of gold have found evidence in favour of gold as a source of the hedge (Narayan, Narayan, & Zheng, 2010; Bampinas & Panagiotidis, 2015), diversification (Ibrahim, 2012; Hoang, Lean, & Wong, 2015), as well as a safe haven in times of adverse market movements (Ciner, Gurdgiev, & Lucey, 2013; Bredin, Conlon, & Potì, 2015). This paper attempts to study how global gold price trends impact domestic gold prices and domestic gold price trends contemplate in international gold markets. The study has been based on 3157 observations of daily data recorded over a period of 13 years – from March 2005 to December 2018 – to show the relationship between the USA and India’s gold market. This paper fills the need for empirical evidence for the short and long-term interrelation between India and USA gold markets and the results show no evidence of a long-term association between Indian and COMEX gold spot prices.

scholarly journals Structural Changes of the 21st Century and their Impact on the Gold Price

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
Roman Grynberg ◽  
Teresa Kaulihowa ◽  
Fwasa K Singogo
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Gold Market

Beginning in the trough of 2000 and culminating in the peak of 2012, gold prices have exhibited a spectacular and unparalleled increase. Based on annual averages, the price of gold did not decrease at all over this 12 year period. The paper considers the various factors that have shaped the surge of gold spot prices over the last two decades using quarterly data. The analysis considers the role of structural changes such as China’s liberalization of the domestic gold market post-2003 and its impact on demand as well as other important economic factors such as risk, the role of quantitative easing and other fundamental factors in the gold market. The study investigates which of the macroeconomic and structural factors are responsible for the long term bullish trend in the gold price, of which China, global economic risk assessments along with quantitative easing have been crucial to understanding the almost uninterrupted price increase over the period.

scholarly journals Forecasting of COVID-19 Reproduction Number by ARIMA Methodology and Quantile Estimation based on Best Fit Distribution by L- moments for Top-10 Affected Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Waqas ◽  
Songhua Xu ◽  
Linyun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Quantile Estimation ◽  
The Usa ◽  
L Moments ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Health Experts

Abstract We utilized the average weekly estimated reproduction number data of COVID-19 from March (2020–2021). By applying ARIMA and L-moments methodology, short-and-long-term forecasting of R0 is made for Govt. officials and public health experts to take before-time policy measures to control the spread of novel coronavirus. This study helps medical staff to measure the expected demand of COVID-19 vaccine doses. We applied various ARIMA models on each country’s data and the best selected based on RMSE, AIC, and BIC for point and interval forecasting. Application L-Moments techniques selected GLO, GEV, and GNO distributions and quantile estimation with return period calculations. The forecasting shows that maximum countries mean R0 > 1, which is still a serious threat and can lead to heath disaster. The forecasting provided an alarming situation in the coming months for India, France, Turkey, and Spain; health experts should take strict measures because the cases rise due to the high R0 forecast. The USA, Russia, and the UK mean R0 will not suddenly increase; these countries consistent in COVID-19 R0 control. We find that even the significant population differences prevail among selected countries, the R0 is still high in maximum countries, so its a dire need to take strict control actions to minimize the R0 for public safety.

scholarly journals Using Common Features to Investigate Common Growth Cycles for BRICS Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-615
Author(s):  
Bruno Ricardo Delalibera ◽  
João Victor Issler ◽  
Roberto Castello Branco
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Growth Cycles ◽  
Common Features ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Common

This paper examines the short and long-term co-movement of large  emerging market economies -- the BRICS countries -- by applying the  econometric techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. Despite their dissimilarities, given the rising trade linkages among the BRICS over the last 20 years one should expect their cycles to be  synchronized. Our empirical findings fully support this hypothesis. The evidence holds also for the co-movement between the BRICS and developed  economies, the US and the Eurozone, which may reflect the effects of  globalization.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis, Does It Sustain?

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bashar Al-Zu'bi ◽  
Hussein Salameh ◽  
Qasim Mousa Abu Eid
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

<p>This paper studies the short and long term relationship between S&amp;P500 USA stock market index and the stock market indices of 30 countries around the world over the period June 2010-April 2015. We implement OLS regression and use error correction model to examine the short and long term relationship between the variables. Empirically, we find that there is a relationship on the short and long term between S&amp;P500 and the indices of 27 countries from East Asia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East as well as the countries of Australia and Canada. These results conclude that the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 significantly and lengthy increased the already high level of co-movement between the USA financial market and the observed stock market for 27 countries around the world. The findings from our research are important; however, we believe that further research based on our findings is necessary.</p>

scholarly journals Mortality among patients with pleural effusion undergoing thoracentesis

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 495-502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin M. DeBiasi ◽  
Margaret A. Pisani ◽  
Terrence E. Murphy ◽  
Katy Araujo ◽  
Anna Kookoolis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Congestive Heart Failure ◽  
Renal Failure ◽  
Pleural Effusion ◽  
Malignant Effusion ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Mortality

Of the 1.5 million people diagnosed with pleural effusion in the USA annually, ∼178 000 undergo thoracentesis. While it is known that malignant pleural effusion portends a poor prognosis, mortality of patients with nonmalignant effusions has not been well studied.This prospective cohort study evaluated 308 patients undergoing thoracentesis. Chart review was performed to obtain baseline characteristics. The aetiology of the effusions was determined using standardised criteria. Mortality was determined at 30 days and 1 year.247 unilateral and 61 bilateral thoracenteses were performed. Malignant effusion had the highest 30-day (37%) and 1-year (77%) mortality. There was substantial patient 30-day and 1-year mortality with effusions due to multiple benign aetiologies (29% and 55%), congestive heart failure (22% and 53%), and renal failure (14% and 57%, respectively). Patients with bilateral, relative to unilateral, pleural effusion were associated with higher risk of death at 30 days and 1 year (17% versus 47% (hazard ratio (HR) 2.58, 95% CI 1.44–4.63) and 36% versus 69% (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.55–3.48), respectively).Patients undergoing thoracentesis for pleural effusion have high short- and long-term mortality. Patients with malignant effusion had the highest mortality followed by multiple benign aetiologies, congestive heart failure and renal failure. Bilateral pleural effusion is distinctly associated with high mortality.

scholarly journals The relationship between trend and volume on the bitcoin market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beata Szetela ◽  
Grzegorz Mentel ◽  
Yuriy Bilan ◽  
Urszula Mentel
Keyword(s):  
Downward Trend ◽  
Volume Changes ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Directional Movement ◽  
Movement Index ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe aim of the paper is to verify the existence of short- and long-term relationships between the strength of a trend and the volume in bullish and bearish cryptocurrency markets. We applied the vector error correction model to bitcoin daily data from 14.01.2015 to 22.12.2019. Based on the prices and following Wilder’s algorithm, the average directional movement index was calculated, and upward and downward trend periods were determined. No long-term relationship was found to exist between the strength of a trend and the volume in both bearish and bullish markets. Hence, trends do not react to volume changes. However, a long-term relationship exists between volume and trend—but only for the downward trend—with an adjustment speed of 88%. In the short-term, a statistically significant but very weak dependency is revealed; hence, the conclusion that trend strength is insensitive to volume changes can be reached.

scholarly journals Conducting Causal Analysis by Means of Approximating Probabilistic Truths

Entropy ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Bo Pieter Johannes Andrée
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Causal Analysis ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Standard Linear ◽  
Short And Long Term

The current paper develops a probabilistic theory of causation using measure-theoretical concepts and suggests practical routines for conducting causal inference. The theory is applicable to both linear and high-dimensional nonlinear models. An example is provided using random forest regressions and daily data on yield spreads. The application tests how uncertainty in short- and long-term inflation expectations interacts with spreads in the daily Bitcoin price. The results are contrasted with those obtained by standard linear Granger causality tests. It is shown that the suggested measure-theoretic approaches do not only lead to better predictive models, but also to more plausible parsimonious descriptions of possible causal flows. The paper concludes that researchers interested in causal analysis should be more aspirational in terms of developing predictive capabilities, even if the interest is in inference and not in prediction per se. The theory developed in the paper provides practitioners guidance for developing causal models using new machine learning methods that have, so far, remained relatively underutilized in this context.

scholarly journals Evolving Trends and Research Hotspots in Disaster Epidemiology From 1985 to 2020: A Bibliometric Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Liu ◽  
Xin Liu ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Shuyu Liu ◽  
Chunxia Cao
Keyword(s):  
Health Effects ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Disaster Medicine ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Disaster Epidemiology ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Research Hotspots

Background: Disaster epidemiology has not attracted enough attention in the past few decades and still faces significant challenges. This study aimed to systematically analyze the evolving trends and research hotspots in disaster epidemiology and provide insights into disaster epidemiology.Methods: We searched the Scopus and Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) databases between 1985 and 2020 to identify relevant literature on disaster epidemiology. The retrieval strategies were TITLE-ABS-KEY (disaster epidemiology) and TS = (disaster AND epidemiology). Bibliometrix, VOSviewer 1.6.6 and SigmaPlot 12.5 were used to analyze the key bibliometric indicators, including trends and annual publications, the contributions of countries, institutions, journals and authors, and research hotspots.Results: A total of 1,975 publications were included. There was an increasing trend in publications over the past 35 years. The USA was the most productive country. The most frequent institutions and journals were Fukushima Medical University and Prehospital and Disaster Medicine. Galea S made significant contributions to this field. “Epidemiology” was the highest-frequency keyword. COVID-19 was highly cited after 2019. Three research hotspots were identified: (i) the short- and long-term adverse health effects of disasters on the population; (ii) COVID-19 pandemic and emergency preparedness; and (iii) disaster management.Conclusions: In recent decades, the USA was a global leader in disaster epidemiology. Disaster management, the short- and long-term health effects of disasters, and the COVID-19 pandemic reflected the research focuses. Our results suggest that these directions will remain research hotspots in the future. International collaboration is also expected to widen and deepen in the field of disaster epidemiology.

scholarly journals Global Investment and Development Trends in the Fintech Secto

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-98
Author(s):  
Iryna Lukianenko ◽  
Yevhen Riabtsun
Keyword(s):  
Asia Pacific ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Investment Structure ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Innovation Capacity ◽  
National Bank ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Short And Long Term

The article’s objectives are to reveal the general tendency in the global investment climate within the fintech industry and introduce the grouping approach for countries based on distinctive characteristics of local fintech and economic environments. Moreover, the paper results can be used as recommendations for local regulators in terms of the fintech industry development, which is a vital force for enhancing the competitiveness level of the countries in the context of world economic uncertainty.Statistics method is used to perform the investment activities and investment structure overview with a close look at three regions: Americas, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa), and the Asia Pacific. The results indicate the largest role of the America region, the smallest – of the Asia-Pacific region, and two main trends in the investment structure by the nature of deals, the first with a predominance of M&A deals and the second with a high venture investments part.Another applied approach is clustering analysis. It is used to group the countries by the set of characteristics, which reflect the general economic conditions and innovation capacity in the financial sector of different countries from the general population. The clustering results give a snapshot of six groups of countries. The group with the highest results is called FinTech Olympus and consists of countries such as the USA, UK, and Singapore. The worst results were shown by the Fintech Jungle group represented by Kenya, Lebanon, Egypt, Uganda, Pakistan, Ghana, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Ukraine. The other countries are grouped in four more clusters with research names – FinTech periphery, Asian-European, FinTech middle class, and Major players. Local regulators, for example, the National Bank of Ukraine, can further consider the results of clustering for maintaining fintech development policy to benefit the economy in general.In such conditions, the main tasks for the Ukrainian government are the improvement of business climate and fintech ecosystem development with the further discovery of their impact on the country’s competitiveness in an unstable economic environment in the short and long term. JEL classіfіcatіon: C40, G19, G20

Brexpiprazole: a new leaf on the partial dopamine agonist branch

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judy Hope ◽  
David Castle ◽  
Nicholas A Keks
Keyword(s):  
Partial Agonist ◽  
Comparable Efficacy ◽  
Antipsychotic Efficacy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Neurochemical Profiles ◽  
Resistant Depression ◽  
Effective Adjunct ◽  
Long Term Studies

Objectives: Brexpiprazole is a new dopamine partial agonist antipsychotic in the same class as aripiprazole. This paper will briefly review brexpiprazole and compare it with aripiprazole. Conclusions: Brexpiprazole and aripiprazole are both partial agonists at dopamine D2, and serotonin 5-HT1A and antagonists at serotonin 5-HT2A and noradrenergic α1B receptors. However, the two drugs are significantly different in potencies at various receptors; neurochemical profiles predict that brexpiprazole may be comparable with aripiprazole in its antipsychotic efficacy but may cause less akathisia, extrapyramidal side effects (EPS) and activation. In pivotal trials brexpiprazole demonstrated antipsychotic efficacy in short and long-term studies; it was also found to be an effective adjunct in patients with major depression resistant to antidepressants. Akathisia can occur early in treatment with brexpiprazole, as can minor weight gain and prolactin elevation. Indirect data extrapolations from pivotal studies suggest that brexpiprazole and aripiprazole have comparable efficacy but brexpiprazole may cause less akathisia. Like aripiprazole, brexpiprazole has been approved in the USA for use in schizophrenia and antidepressant-resistant depression. Although much more clinical experience is needed, brexpiprazole appears to be distinct from aripiprazole and a promising new ‘metabolically-friendly’ antipsychotic option for treatment of psychoses and mood disorders.

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