Transitions to Democracy: Unpredictable Elite Negotiation or Predictable Failure to Achieve Class Compromise?

1998 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-93
Author(s):  
Kevin Neuhouser
Keyword(s):  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
The Military ◽  
Negotiation Literature

Can democratic transitions be predicted? The elite-negotiation literature claims that the process is so complicated and contingent that the timing and process is unpredictable. The class-compromise framework, however, identifies structural conditions that make stabilization unlikely, specifying who will oppose the authoritarian regime and why. A “triggering” event—a collapse in export demand—also is identified that intensifies and extends opposition, making a transition likely within 1–3 years. To demonstrate the usefulness of the class-compromise framework, two very different authoritarian regimes are compared. In the Brazilian regime (1964–1985), the military ruled as an institution and pursued state-led development; the Chilean regime (1973–1989) was dominated by one general and was radically neo-liberal. Despite these differences, structural conditions pushed both regimes toward export-led growth and wage constraint, hurting workers and capitalists producing for the local market. When exports collapsed in the early 1980s, opposition spread and forced democratic transitions.

Virtual Legality

2001 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 555-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANTHONY W. PEREIRA
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Military Justice ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Legal Justification ◽  
The Military ◽  
Relevant Factors

Authoritarian regimes in Latin America frequently expanded military court jurisdiction to prosecute political opponents and protect members of the armed forces and police engaged in repression. What happened to the military courts after the recent transitions to democracy in the region? Why did some democratic transitions produce broad reform of military justice while most did not? This article first reviews contending theoretical explanations that offer answers to these questions, comparing those answers with actual outcomes in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. It then argues that the “mode of transition” perspective, which attributes variation in the extent of military justice reform to the autonomy and strength of the military in the democratic transition, best explains the outcomes in these cases. However, the military's autonomy and strength should be specified. In the area of military justice, the relevant factors are the military's propagation of an accepted legal justification for past uses of military courts and the creation of congressional support for the maintenance of existing military court jurisdiction. Both of these factors are present in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, where little or no reform of military justice took place under democratization, and absent in Argentina, where broad reform did occur.

Conquering and coercing: Nonviolent anti-regime protests and the pathways to democracy

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 650-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam Kyu Kim ◽  
Alex M Kroeger
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Direct And Indirect Effects ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Leadership Change ◽  
Autocratic Regimes ◽  
Leader Survival ◽  
Empirical Analyses

Recent research finds an association between nonviolent protests and democratic transitions. However, existing scholarship either does not specify the pathways through which nonviolent protests bring about democratization or conduct systematic empirical analyses demonstrating that the specified pathways are operative. This article proposes four pathways through which nonviolent anti-regime protests encourage democratic transitions, emphasizing their ability to directly conquer or indirectly coerce such transitions. Most simply, they can conquer democratic reforms by directly overthrowing authoritarian regimes and installing democracies. They can also coerce democratic reforms through three additional pathways. Nonviolent anti-regime protests can coerce incumbent elites into democratic reforms by threatening the survival of authoritarian regimes. They also increase the likelihood of elite splits, which promote negotiated democratic reforms. Finally, they encourage leadership change within the existing authoritarian regime. Following leadership change, nonviolent movements remain mobilized and are able to coerce democratic concessions from the regime’s new leaders. Our within-regime analyses provide robust empirical support for each pathway. We show that nonviolent anti-regime protests conquer democratic reforms by ousting autocratic regimes and replacing them with democracies. Nonviolent anti-regime protests also coerce elites into democratic reforms by threatening regime and leader survival. These findings highlight the importance of protest goals and tactics and also that nonviolent anti-regime protests have both direct and indirect effects on democratization.

Democratic transitions and monetary policy: are democratic central banks different?

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-180
Author(s):  
Christian Bjørnskov ◽  
Martin Rode
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Market Institutions ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Electoral Democracy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Competing Hypotheses

Empirical studies have shown democracies to be more supportive of pro-market institutions than authoritarian regimes; however, to date, it is virtually unknown through which channel democracy might actually create institutional improvements. In addition, causality between democracy and economic institutions is anything but clear, as competing hypotheses highlight. In this article, we examine the possible association of democratisation and political instability with sound monetary policy and the independence of central banks, both of which can be considered central pillars of an economic policy aimed at producing overall prosperity. Results mainly indicate that stable transitions to democracy are followed by strongly improved access to sound money and more independent central banks, probably because stable shifts to electoral democracy create incentives for policymakers to refrain from using monetary policy for short-run gains. Conversely, we also find evidence that especially unstable democratic transitions could impede the establishment of a more independent central bank, making inflationary policies and high money growth more likely.

scholarly journals Coup Agency and Prospects for Democracy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holger Albrecht ◽  
Kevin Koehler ◽  
Austin Schutz
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Research Note ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Military Interventions ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
The Military ◽  
Global Data

Abstract This research note introduces new global data on military coups. Conventional aggregate data so far have conflated two distinct types of coups. Military interventions by leading officers are coups “from above,” characterized by political power struggles within authoritarian elite coalitions where officers move against civilian elites, executive incumbents, and their loyal security personnel. By contrast, power grabs by officers from the lower and middle ranks are coups “from below,” where military personnel outside of the political elite challenge sitting incumbents, their loyalists, and the regime itself. Disaggregating coup types offers leverage to revise important questions about the causes and consequences of military intervention in politics. This research note illustrates that coup attempts from the top of the military hierarchy are much more likely to be successful than coups from the lower and middle ranks of the military hierarchy. Moreover, coups from the top recalibrate authoritarian elite coalitions and serve to sustain autocratic rule; they rarely produce an opening for a democratic transition. Successful coups from below, by contrast, can result in the breakdown of authoritarian regimes and generate an opening for democratic transitions.

scholarly journals Politically-Connected Firms and the Military-Clientelist Complex in North Africa

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Kubinec
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Institutional Diversity ◽  
Broad Array ◽  
The Military

Although much of the theory of authoritarian regimes assumes that the distribution of patronage is necessary to secure a ruler's coalition, it is also true that at times rulers may still survive despite impoverishing influential elites. I argue that what can help dictators maintain elite cohesion is concentrating patronage within institutions capable of controlling access to a broad array of rents. I make this claim based on an original online survey of 2,496 firm managers and employees in Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia in which I randomized the type of offers made by political parties to companies for support in a hypothetical election. I show that Egyptian businesses, who have suffered the most under the authoritarian regime, counter-intuitively are also the most supportive of the country's rulers compared to businesspeople in other Arab countries. The underlying mechanism that best explains these findings is the Egyptian military's dominance in the control of patronage relative to the greater institutional diversity found in other countries.

Rules and Regime Institutions

2021 ◽  
pp. 273-301
Author(s):  
Graeme Gill
Keyword(s):  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Institutional Structures ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Way

The aim of this chapter is to examine the effect institutions have on the adoption and operation of rules. It therefore explains differences in the way the rules have worked in the different regimes by aspects of the different institutional structures. The military regime with its centralized command ethos, the electoral authoritarian regime with a party designed to compete in a competitive electoral process, the personalization of power in the personal dictatorship and the family in the dynastic monarchy, all had significant impacts on the way the rules functioned in those regimes. The findings of this chapter throw doubt on the common claim that institutions are not very important in authoritarian regimes.

Dictators and Democrats

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
Organizational Capabilities ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Emerging Democracies ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Multiple Routes

From the 1980s through the first decade of the twenty-first century, the spread of democracy across the developing and postcommunist worlds transformed the global political landscape. What drove these changes and what determined whether the emerging democracies would stabilize or revert to authoritarian rule? This book takes a comprehensive look at the transitions to and from democracy in recent decades. Deploying both statistical and qualitative analysis, the book engages with theories of democratic change and advocates approaches that emphasize political and institutional factors. While inequality has been a prominent explanation for democratic transitions, the book argues that its role has been limited, and elites as well as masses can drive regime change. Examining seventy-eight cases of democratic transition and twenty-five cases of reversion to autocracy since 1980, the book shows how differences in authoritarian regimes and organizational capabilities shape popular protest and elite initiatives in transitions to democracy, and how institutional weaknesses cause some democracies to fail. The determinants of democracy lie in the strength of existing institutions and the public's capacity to engage in collective action. There are multiple routes to democracy, but those growing out of mass mobilization may provide more checks on incumbents than those emerging from intra-elite bargains. Moving beyond well-known beliefs regarding regime changes, this book explores the conditions under which transitions to democracy are likely to arise.

Economic Origins of Electoral Support for Authoritarian Successors

2007 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byong-Kuen Jhee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Knee Jerk ◽  
The Past ◽  
Electoral Support

This study explores how economic performance prior to democratic transitions affects the fate of successors to authoritarian rulers in new democracies. It investigates 70 founding election outcomes, finding that successful economic performance under an authoritarian regime increases the vote share of successors. It also finds that the past economic performance of authoritarian rulers decreases the likelihood of government alternation to democratic oppositions. Interim governments that initiate democratic transition, however, are neither blamed nor rewarded for economic conditions during transition periods. This study concludes that electorates are not myopic and that economic voting is not a knee-jerk reaction to short-term economic performance in new democracies.

scholarly journals Jaime Wright (1929-1999) e a defesa dos direitos humanos no contexto da resistência à ditadura militar no brasil | Jaime Wright (1929-1999) and the defense of human rights in the context of the military dictatorship resistance in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 09-22
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Pinto de Andrade ◽  
Rogerio De Almeida Souza
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
The Political ◽  
Religious Support ◽  
Military Dictatorship ◽  
Brazilian Society ◽  
Politically Persecuted ◽  
The Military

Este texto tem como objetivo analisar a vida e a obra de Jaime Nelson Wright (1927-1999), pastor presbiteriano, opositor do regime militar no Brasil e intelectual engajado na luta pela defesa dos direitos humanos. Foi uma das vozes que mais combateu a ditadura militar no interior do protestantismo brasileiro. Desde a deflagração do golpe em 1964, fez a opção político/religiosa de não aderir ao regime autoritário. Wright se vinculou ao movimento estudantil e dedicou-se ao amparo religioso/pastoral dos perseguidos políticos. Sua contribuição como intelectual, perpassa o campo religioso. Ele atuou junto aos organismos internacionais voltados para a defesa dos direitos humanos e fundamentais à vida e denunciou as atrocidades do regime militar no Brasil. Para a efetivação da pesquisa foram utilizadas as seguintes fontes: documentos e imagens disponibilizados pelo projeto Brasil: Nunca Mais; jornais da época: entrevistas e matérias; decretos e leis. Os dados revelados pelas fontes indicam que a vida e obra de Jaime Wright contribuíram decisivamente para o processo de redemocratização do Brasil. This text analyzes the life and work of Jaime Nelson Wright (1927-1999), a Presbyterian pastor, a fierce opponent of the military regime in Brazil, and intellectually engaged in the struggle for the defense of human rights. He was one of the voices that most fought the military dictatorship in the Brazilian Protestant movement. Since the outbreak of the coup in 1964, he made the political and religious choice of not joining the authoritarian regime. Wright joined the student movement and dedicated himself to the religious support of the politically persecuted. His contribution as a committed intellectual goes beyond the clerical field. He was involved with international organizations dedicated to the defense of human rights and the fundamental rights to life. He also exposed the military regime's atrocities. For the realization of the research were used the following sources: documents and images made available by the Project Brazil: Never Again; newspapers of the time: interviews and stories; decrees and laws. The data revealed by the sources, indicate the life and work of Jaime Wright contributed in a decisive way to the re-democratization process in the Brazilian society.

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