A Note of Caution in Causal Modelling

1968 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 1258-1264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugh Donald Forbes ◽  
Edward R. Tufte
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Causal Analysis ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Causal Explanations ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Causal Modelling ◽  
General Importance ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Made In

Many empirical investigations in the behavioral sciences today aim at tracing the causes of variations in some key dependent variable. The search for satisfying causal explanations is difficult because of the complexity of social phenomena, the crudeness of the measures of many important variables, and the prevalence of simultaneous cause and effect relations among variables. Although these difficulties remain, a number of important methodological contributions have clarified the conditions under which causal inferences can be made from non-experimental data. In particular the Simon-Blalock technique has recently gained considerable attention, and has been profitably used by a number of political scientists in their research. Examination of some of these applications does, however, reveal the need for a better understanding of the purposes and limitations of the technique. This paper reviews two studies: (1) the re-analysis of the Miller-Stokes data by Cnudde and McCrone, and (2) the analysis of the determinants of Negro political participation in the South by Matthews and Prothro. We shall argue that both these applications have two faults: (1) a failure to distinguish conclusions from assumptions, and (2) an inadequate correspondence between the assumptions made in constructing the mathematical models and our prior knowledge about the phenomena being studied. In addition, we shall use the first study to illustrate a principle of general importance in causal analysis: the investigator should check the possibility that different causal mechanisms occur in different subgroups of his data. And we shall use the second study to illustrate the difficulty of separating the effects of two highly correlated independent variables.

scholarly journals Prediction and Explanation in a Postmodern World

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim I. Krueger
Keyword(s):  
Historical Research ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Narrative Psychology ◽  
Historical Case ◽  
Computational Tools ◽  
Causal Explanations ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Past ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Made In

The experimental research paradigm lies at the core of empirical psychology. New data analytical and computational tools continually enrich its methodological arsenal, while the paradigm’s mission remains the testing of theoretical predictions and causal explanations. Predictions regarding experimental results necessarily point to the future. Once the data are collected, the causal inferences refer to a hypothesis now lying in the past. The experimental paradigm is not designed to permit strong inferences about particular incidents that occurred before predictions were made. In contrast, historical research and scholarship in other humanities focus on this backward direction of inference. The disconnect between forward-looking experimental psychology and backward-looking historical (i.e., narrative) psychology is a challenge in the postmodern era, which can be addressed. To illustrate this possibility, I discuss three historical case studies in light of theory and research in contemporary psychology.

scholarly journals Reactivity in social scientific experiments: what is it and how is it different (and worse) than a Placebo effect?

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
María Jiménez-Buedo
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Placebo Effect ◽  
Placebo Effects ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Scientific Experiments ◽  
Social Scientific ◽  
The Many ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
In Virtue Of

AbstractReactivity, or the phenomenon by which subjects tend to modify their behavior in virtue of their being studied upon, is often cited as one of the most important difficulties involved in social scientific experiments, and yet, there is to date a persistent conceptual muddle when dealing with the many dimensions of reactivity. This paper offers a conceptual framework for reactivity that draws on an interventionist approach to causality. The framework allows us to offer an unambiguous definition of reactivity and distinguishes it from placebo effects. Further, it allows us to distinguish between benign and malignant forms of the phenomenon, depending on whether reactivity constitutes a danger to the validity of the causal inferences drawn from experimental data.

scholarly journals Through what mechanisms do protected areas affect environmental and social outcomes?

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 (1681) ◽  
pp. 20140267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Ferraro ◽  
Merlin M. Hanauer
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Social Outcomes ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
The Past ◽  
Made In

To develop effective protected area policies, scholars and practitioners must better understand the mechanisms through which protected areas affect social and environmental outcomes. With strong evidence about mechanisms, the key elements of success can be strengthened, and the key elements of failure can be eliminated or repaired. Unfortunately, empirical evidence about these mechanisms is limited, and little guidance for quantifying them exists. This essay assesses what mechanisms have been hypothesized, what empirical evidence exists for their relative contributions and what advances have been made in the past decade for estimating mechanism causal effects from non-experimental data. The essay concludes with a proposed agenda for building an evidence base about protected area mechanisms.

The polarized structure function from the nonextensive statistics

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 1650101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Augusto Trevisan
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Structure Function ◽  
Nonextensive Statistics ◽  
Made In

In the present work, the effects of the nonextensivity are considered in a model to obtain the polarized structure function for the proton and neutron, including the strange contribution for each one. Any type of symmetry is made in consequence of the experimental data involved.

scholarly journals A computational framework for finding parameter sets associated with chaotic dynamics

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
S. Koshy-Chenthittayil ◽  
E. Dimitrova ◽  
E.W. Jenkins ◽  
B.C. Dean
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Chaotic Dynamics ◽  
Chaotic Behavior ◽  
Computational Framework ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
Small Support

Many biological ecosystems exhibit chaotic behavior, demonstrated either analytically using parameter choices in an associated dynamical systems model or empirically through analysis of experimental data. In this paper, we use existing software tools (COPASI, R) to explore dynamical systems and uncover regions with positive Lyapunov exponents where thus chaos exists. We evaluate the ability of the software’s optimization algorithms to find these positive values with several dynamical systems used to model biological populations. The algorithms have been able to identify parameter sets which lead to positive Lyapunov exponents, even when those exponents lie in regions with small support. For one of the examined systems, we observed that positive Lyapunov exponents were not uncovered when executing a search over the parameter space with small spacings between values of the independent variables.

scholarly journals Comparative analysis of methods to determine deflection in steel beams: theoretical analysis, finite element and experimental

2020 ◽  
pp. 32-37
Author(s):  
Gabriela Alor-Saavedra ◽  
Francisco Alejandro Alaffita-Hernández ◽  
Beatris Adriana Escobedo-Trujillo ◽  
Oscar Fernando Silva-Aguilar
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Experimental Data ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Analysis ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Steel Beams ◽  
Physical Systems ◽  
Theoretical Part ◽  
Made In

This work makes a comparative study of two methods to determine deflection in steel beams: (a) Theoretical and (b) Finite element. For method (a) the solution of the differential equation associated with the modeling of the deflection of a beam is found, while for method (b) a simulation is made in Solidworks. Both methods are compared with experimental data in order to analyze which of the methods presents less uncertainty and show the usefulness of the theoretical part in the modeling of physical systems.

scholarly journals Stereotypes of the Upbringing Value: Refraction Depending on the Real Needs of Modern Children

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-139
Author(s):  
Yafizova Rimma I. ◽  
◽  
Nichiporenko Lidia K. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Research Methodology ◽  
Value Orientations ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Only Children ◽  
The Real ◽  
Subjective Approach ◽  
Pedagogical Research ◽  
Event Based

The article highlights the study of the problem of the formation of value orientations of education in the educational process. The authors tried to determine the modern values of upbringing and to reveal the teacher’s readiness to refract the existing stereotypes of upbringing values to the real needs of a modern child. The article reveals the results of sociological and pedagogical research, which allows the authors to correlate the real needs, demands of modern children, the specifics of the existing subculture and what significant adults are oriented towards, who determine the content, approaches in the upbringing and education of children. The results of studying the ideas and requests of not only children, but also parents and teachers are highlighted.The research methodology is based on the key ideas of the competence-based and subjective approach. The main methods of studying the stated problems are: analysis, interpretation and systematization of theoretical and experimental data. The analysis of the studied patterns was carried out from the standpoint of interdisciplinarity, pedagogical and social phenomena were considered as holistic, which made it possible to develop an approach to methodological support of teachers in the organization of significant and valuable educational events for preschoolers. In the context of the research, labour actions are identified that are most characteristic of teachers in the implementation of the event-based approach. The potential of labor actions that are not included in the repertoire of specialists has been studied, the motivation for this has been determined. The obtained results of the study made it possible to identify and describe the options for relevant technological tracks in educational approaches, to determine the specifics of the organization of educational events in a preschool institution, to draw practical conclusions that allow us to design subsequent directions for study. Keywords: upbringing stereotypes, upbringing values, value attitude, children’s subculture, children’s needs

Characteristics of statistical parameters used to interpret least-squares results.

1978 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
R B Davis ◽  
J E Thompson ◽  
H L Pardue
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract This paper discusses properties of several statistical parameters that are useful in judging the quality of least-squares fits of experimental data and in interpreting least-squares results. The presentation includes simplified equations that emphasize similarities and dissimilarities among the standard error of estimate, the standard deviations of slopes and intercepts, the correlation coefficient, and the degree of correlation between the least-squares slope and intercept. The equations are used to illustrate dependencies of these parameters upon experimentally controlled variables such as the number of data points and the range and average value of the independent variable. Results are interpreted in terms of which parameters are most useful for different kinds of applications. The paper also includes a discussion of joint confidence intervals that should be used when slopes and intercepts are highly correlated and presents equations that can be used to judge the degree of correlation between these coefficients and to compute the elliptical joint confidence intervals. The parabolic confidence intervals for calibration cures are also discussed briefly.

A verification method for identifying critical segments considering highly correlated characteristics of traffic flow

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050048
Author(s):  
Zundong Zhang ◽  
Mengyao Zhu ◽  
Jeff Ban ◽  
Yifan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Ego Networks ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Traffic State ◽  
Traffic Systems ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Adjacent Segments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Made In

Since critical segments on a transportation network vary over time and are determined by the nature of traffic systems, the identification of critical segments is the basis for realizing area-wide traffic coordination control and regional traffic state optimization. For decades, the identification of critical segments of dynamic traffic flow networks has attracted wide attention. In recent years, some important advances have been made in the related research on the identification of critical segments using the theory of percolation which validates the impact of critical segments by increasing the speed value of critical segments. However, most of them failed to take into account highly correlated characteristics between adjacent segments, which causes identification results cannot be validated effectively and efficiently. In this paper, we improve the existing critical segments identification methods by considering the highly correlated characteristics. A verification method based on ego-networks is proposed that improves the ego-networks speed of critical segments to verify the accuracy of identification results. The experiment shows the method can verify the validity of critical segments recognition results more accurately.

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