scholarly journals Coordination, Moderation, and Institutional Balancing in American Presidential and House Elections

2000 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter R. Mebane
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Stochastic Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Point Condition ◽  
The Common ◽  
Moderate Policy

Voters have been coordinating their choices for president and House of Representatives in recent presidential election years, with each voter using a strategy that features policy moderation. Coordination is defined as a noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium among voters, in which each voter has both common knowledge and private information about the election outcome. Stochastic choice models estimated using individual-level NES data from 1976–96 support coordination versus a model in which voters act nonstrategically to moderate policy. The empirical coordinating model satisfies the fixed-point condition that defines the common knowledge expectation voters have about the outcome in the theoretical equilibrium. The proportion of voters who split their ticket in order to balance the House with the president has been small but large enough to affect election outcomes. Moderation has usually been based on voters' expectations that the president will be at least an equal of the House in determining postelection policy.

Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
WALTER R. MEBANE ◽  
JASJEET S. SEKHON
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Stochastic Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Ideal Points ◽  
Election Studies

Eligible voters have been coordinating their turnout and vote decisions for the House of Representatives in midterm elections. Coordination is a noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium. Stochastic choice models estimated using individual-level data from U.S. National Election Studies surveys of the years 1978–1998 support the coordinating model and reject a nonstrategic model. The coordinating model shows that many voters have incentives to change their votes between the presidential year and midterm after learning the outcome of the presidential election. But this mechanism alone does not explain the size of midterm cycles. The largest source of loss of support for the president's party at midterm is a regular pattern in which the median differences between the voters' ideal points and the parties' policy positions have become less favorable for the president's party than they were at the time of the presidential election (nonvoters show the same pattern). The interelection changes are not consistent with the theory of surge and decline.

scholarly journals Legislative coalitions with incomplete information

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (11) ◽  
pp. 2876-2880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiberiu Dragu ◽  
Michael Laver
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
The Other ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
The Common

In most parliamentary democracies, proportional representation electoral rules mean that no single party controls a majority of seats in the legislature. This in turn means that the formation of majority legislative coalitions in such settings is of critical political importance. Conventional approaches to modeling the formation of such legislative coalitions typically make the “common knowledge” assumption that the preferences of all politicians are public information. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework to investigate which legislative coalitions form when politicians’ policy preferences are private information, not known with certainty by the other politicians with whom they are negotiating over what policies to implement. The model we develop has distinctive implications. It suggests that legislative coalitions should typically be either of the center left or the center right. In other words our model, distinctively, predicts only center-left or center-right policy coalitions, not coalitions comprising the median party plus parties both to its left and to its right.

El patriacado y la estructura social de la vida cotidiana

1970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Postigo Asenjo
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Public Sphere ◽  
Civic Education ◽  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Judicial System ◽  
The Public ◽  
El Sistema ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
Ways Of Life

RESUMENEl sistema patriarcal no afecta exclusivamente al poder político y judicial, sino que afecta a la estructura interna de la sociedad, la identidad y las formas de vida de los individuos que en ella viven. Para comprender mejor como condiciona el sistema patriarcal las formas de vida y la visión que tienen los individuos de la realidad social, hemos de analizar el modo en que se extiende al orden institucional y lo determina mediante "tipificaciones" de hechos y de personas y mediante roles concretos, esteoreotipaciones sexiuales que obstaculizan el acceso a la esfera pública de la mujer, así como su reinserción en el mercado laboral, en suma, todo aquello que afecta al conocimiento común que comparten los miembros de una comunidad. El cambio hacia una mayor igualdad y una real democracia paritaria y compartida no es posible sin una paulatina educación y concienciación de la sociedad en su conjunto.PALABRAS CLAVEPATRIARCADO-TIPIFICACIÓN SOCIAL-IGUALDAD DE GÉNEROABSTRACTPatriarchalism is not only present in politics and the judicial system. It also affects the internal structure of society, above all the life and identitý of individuals. To understand better how it conditions their ways of life and the vision the individuals have of social reality, we should study how patriarchalism r3eaches the system of institutions and how this becomes determined by "typifications" of facts and people, and by certain roles or sexual stereotypes that hinder the access of women both to the public sphere and to tha labor market. It sum, everything that concerns the common knowledge that the members of a community share. The move towards more equality and towards a more egalitarian democracy heavily depends on the spread of civic education to the entire society.KEYWORDSPATRIARCHALISM-SOCIAL TYPIFICATION-GENDER EQUALITY

National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110318
Author(s):  
Francine Sanders Romero ◽  
David W. Romero
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Multivariate Modeling ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Modern Era ◽  
Campaign Advertising

In an era when elections scholars expected American national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout’s trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. This complicates our understanding as we have yet to settle on turnout’s description, much less its explanation. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modeling of American national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modeling turnout’s decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout’s expected steady increase across the modern era (1952–2020). Second, we show that turnout’s increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960–2012).

Nonrevealing Equilibria and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James E Gunderson
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Conditional Distributions ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Investment Choices

In the rational expectations equilibrium of this paper, agents have private information and differing information partitions and therefore assign differing conditional distributions to asset payoffs and other economic variables relevant to their investment choices. Standard asset pricing models typically do not recognize the impact of these differing information partitions, and empirical tests based on these models thus measure asset riskiness in a way that may not be relevant to any of the agents' decisions. I show how this can lead to distorted estimates of investment risk and how it can make the equity premium appear difficult to explain.

scholarly journals The Definite and Indefinite Articles of Spanish (or Castilian) Language in Context

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-127
Author(s):  
Sonia Montero Gálvez
Keyword(s):  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Definite Article ◽  
Cognitive Approach ◽  
Indefinite Article ◽  
The Common ◽  
Communicative Context ◽  
The Way

The present paper addresses the contrast between the definite article (el/la/los/las) and the indefinite article (un/a/os/as) from a cognitive approach that not only poses a single meaning for each kind of article, but also highlights the pragmatic (or contextual) aspects that underlie that meaning and establish the use of one form or another. The article’s meaning is shaped by the way we conceptualize the reference: the definite article implies an inclusive reference characterized by the uniqueness of the referent, while the indefinite article implies an exclusive reference characterized by the lack of uniqueness. The possibility to choose one or other way depends on contextual aspects related to the common knowledge shared by the interlocutors, the communicative context (linguistic and situational) and the space (physical or mental) where the referent is located.

scholarly journals LET’S JOIN OUR HANDS, MY DEAR FRIENDS: BULAT OKUDZHAVA IN THE INTERTEXTUAL THESAURUS OF THE YOUNG

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Валентина Даниловна Черняк ◽  
Мария Александровна Черняк
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Cultural Memory ◽  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Cultural Backgrounds ◽  
Single Culture ◽  
The Common ◽  
Fathers And Sons ◽  
The Mind ◽  
Russian Linguistic ◽  
National Corpus

Введение. Рассматривается проблема культурного диалога представителей разных поколений. Прецедентные тексты, связанные с совокупностью знаний и представлений людей, принадлежащих к одной культуре, анализируются в связи со структурой языковой личности. Прецедентные феномены различных типов являются важной составляющей интертекстуального тезауруса. В процессе коммуникации немалую роль играют культурные аллюзии коммуникантов, их оперирование культурным багажом, в частности составляющими интертекстуального тезауруса. Цель – анализ той части тезауруса русской языковой личности, которая связана с крылатыми словами одного из значительных авторов XX века – Булата Окуджавы. Материал и методы. Постоянно воспроизводимые песни Булата Окуджавы формировали культурный код поколения 70–80-х гг. Многие фразы из его песен приобрели статус фольклорных, о чем свидетельствуют материалы словарей и Национального корпуса русского языка. Для исследования динамических процессов, характеризующих различия в культурной памяти поколений отцов и детей, был произведен эксперимент, в ходе которого были отобраны 10 популярных высказываний из поэзии Б. Окуджавы. Они легли в основу опроса, в котором участвовало около 1 000 человек. Респонденты должны были определить авторство высказываний и продолжить некоторые из них. Результаты и обсуждение. Анализ результатов опроса показал, что даже самые распространенные высказывания из песен Б. Окуджавы в большинстве случаев не соотносятся в сознании респондентов с именем автора. Приписывание авторства самым неожиданным именам свидетельствует о глубоких лакунах в культурной памяти молодых людей, в то же время строки Б. Окуджавы присутствуют в интертекстуальном тезаурусе языковой личности, что во многом связано с взаимодействием вербальной и аудиовизуальной информации. Заключение. Результаты анализа лексикографических источников и корпусные данные свидетельствуют о прецедентности многих поэтических строк Б. Окуджавы, в то же время анализ данных массового опроса отражает существенные изменения в интертекстуальном тезаурусе молодежи. Introduction. The article deals with the issue of the cultural communication between representatives of different generations. The precedent texts associated with the common knowledge of people belonging to a single culture are studied in line with the structure of a linguistic personality. Precedent phenomena of various types are an important part of an intertextual thesaurus. In the process of communication, the cultural allusions of communicants play a great role, as well as the application of their cultural backgrounds that include components of the intertextual thesaurus. Aim and objectives. The purpose of the article is to analyze the area of the Russian linguistic personality thesaurus that contains the catchphrases by Bulat Okudzhava – a prominent 20th century Russian author. Material and methods. Being constantly played out in the 1970–1980s, Bulat Okudzhava’s songs were shaping the cultural values of the generation. Many phrases from the songs got a folklore status, which is witnessed both by the dictionaries and by the Russian National Corpus. In order to study the dynamics characterizing the differences in the cultural memory of generations of fathers and sons an experiment has been carried out based on the 10 popular catchphrases from Okudzhava’s verse. These phrases underlie the survey covering an audience of approximately 1,000 people. Those surveyed had to determine the authorship of the phrases and to continue some of them. Results and discussion. The analysis showed that in most cases there are no links in the mind of respondents between the name of Bulat Okudzhava and even the most widespread phrases from his songs. The authorship was often attributed to fully unexpected names, which shows serious gaps in the cultural memory of the young. However, it was proven that Okudzhava’s catchphrases definitely exist in the intertextual thesaurus of the linguistic personality, which is surely determined by the interaction of verbal and multimedia information. Conclusion. The analysis of the dictionary entries and the corpus data proves the precedent status of many of the Okudzhava’s phrases. Nevertheless, the results of the mass survey reflect a significant change in the intertextual thesaurus of the young.

The Impact of Political System and Culture on Political Advertising

2005 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Sik Kim
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political System ◽  
Political Advertising ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Daily Newspapers ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

This study examines the impact of political system and culture on political advertising of the United States, Japan and Korea. The population of this study was defined as all political ads appearing in major daily newspapers during the 1963–1997 presidential election campaigns in the U.S. and Korea, and the House of Representatives' election campaigns in Japan. A total of 695 political newspaper ads were content-analyzed in this study. Results of the study showed that there were differences in types, valences and appeals of political advertising of the U.S., Japan and Korea. Also, discussions based on study results showed mixed and intertwined arguments against or for the expectations for this study.

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