scholarly journals Economic voting in the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Amelia L. Bello
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Opposite Effect ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Predicted Probability ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
Political Variables

Abstract The article wanted to find out if elections in the Philippines are economically motivated. Using 2019 gubernatorial election results, a logit model with inflation rate, unemployment rate, provincial revenue, and poverty incidence for the economic variables and party affiliation with the President and membership in a political family as the political variables was tested to explain the probability of an incumbent governor to be re-elected. The marginal effects tell us that a change in the unemployment rate decreases the predicted probability of a governor being reelected but interestingly, a change in the poverty incidence rates has the opposite effect.

Understanding Michigan's Electoral Competitiveness: Swing Counties 1976-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-201
Author(s):  
JOHN S. KLEMANSKI ◽  
DAVID A. DULIO ◽  
DOUGLAS A. CARR
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
County Level ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Electoral Competitiveness

ABSTRACT Considerable media attention was given to the so-called “pivot counties” in the U.S. and in Michigan that flipped from supporting Barack Obama twice to voting for Donald Trump in 2016. We first summarize theories of voting behavior and speculate about why Michigan has been consistently competitive over the years. We explore 40 years' worth of county-level presidential and gubernatorial election results in Michigan to determine how frequently counties have flipped across a large number of elections. We find that a number of Michigan counties frequently flip between elections, but the number of competitive Michigan counties has substantially declined in recent decades. Turnout in larger counties can affect election outcomes, and large counties that swing have been key bellwethers in past elections, and should be a major focus of research on future elections in Michigan.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of tuberculosis incidence in Los Angeles County

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Readhead ◽  
Alicia H. Chang ◽  
Jo Kay Ghosh ◽  
Frank Sorvillo ◽  
Julie Higashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Country Of Birth ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Background In Los Angeles County, the tuberculosis (TB) disease incidence rate is seven times higher among non-U.S.-born persons than U.S.-born persons and varies by country of birth. But translating these findings into public health action requires more granular information, especially considering that Los Angeles County is more than 4000 mile2. Local public health authorities may benefit from data on which areas of the county are most affected, yet these data remain largely unreported in part because of limitations of sparse data. We aimed to describe the spatial distribution of TB disease incidence in Los Angeles County while addressing challenges arising from sparse data and accounting for known cofactors. Methods Data on 5447 TB cases from Los Angeles County were combined with stratified population estimates available from the 2005–2011 Public Use Microdata Survey. TB disease incidence rates stratified by country of birth and Public Use Microdata Area were calculated and spatial smoothing was applied using a conditional autoregressive model. We used Bayesian Poisson models to investigate spatial patterns adjusting for age, sex, country of birth and years since initial arrival in the U.S. Results There were notable differences in the crude and spatially-smoothed maps of TB disease rates for high-risk subgroups, namely persons born in Mexico, Vietnam or the Philippines. Spatially-smoothed maps showed areas of high incidence in downtown Los Angeles and surrounding areas for persons born in the Philippines or Vietnam. Areas of high incidence were more dispersed for persons born in Mexico. Adjusted models suggested that the spatial distribution of TB disease could not be fully explained using age, sex, country of birth and years since initial arrival. Conclusions This study highlights areas of high TB incidence within Los Angeles County both for U.S.-born cases and for cases born in Mexico, Vietnam or the Philippines. It also highlights areas that had high incidence rates even when accounting for non-spatial error and country of birth, age, sex, and years since initial arrival in the U.S. Information on spatial distribution provided here complements other descriptions of local disease burden and may help focus ongoing efforts to scale up testing for TB infection and treatment among high-risk subgroups.

Impact of Facebook Likes and Shares on Campaign Posts in Predicting the 2016 Philippine Presidential Election Results

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 936-952
Author(s):  
Cherryl Lauron
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Development Communication ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Election Result ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hard Evidence ◽  
Election Results

Impact of Facebook Likes and Shares on Campaign Posts in Predicting the 2016 Philippine Presidential Election Results   Cherryl M. Lauron, MDC1 1Department of Development Communication, Adventist University of the Philippines [email protected]   Introduction:   The active usage of the Filipinos in the social media application called Facebook may influence the society, the election campaign and result but hard evidence is scarce. Hence, this study intends to analyze how the engagement of users through ‘likes’ and ‘shares’ on the Facebook campaign posts can predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election.   Methods: The study delved on interpreting how Facebook as a communication channel predicted the election result based on the engagement in likes and shares in the Facebook campaign posts. Only the number of likes and shares of the posts based on the total count on the original post on the candidates’ official Facebook page were analyzed. These were posted during the campaign period declared by the Commission on Elections. The social net importer was used in the data gathering process then the calculation using a statistical tool followed as basis for analysis.     Results: The official election result from the COMELEC confirmed that Rodrigo Duterte won in the 2016 Presidential election with a total of 16,601,997 votes. Grace Poe secured the highest number of likes and shares, 13,036,065 likes and 1,511,020 shares, respectively but she only ranked as third in the official election. Results show that the number of likes and shares on the Facebook election campaign posts are not significant in predicting the election result.   Discussion: Future studies in relation to Philippine Presidential election may be conducted and other variables can be considered like the Presidential debate likes and shares, comments, and other Facebook reactions like heart, wow, sad and thankful.   Keywords: Facebook Likes, Facebook Shares, Campaign Posts, 2016 Philippine Presidential Election Results    

scholarly journals Preventing Child Drowning in the Philippines: The Need to Address the Determinants of Health

Children ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Jonathan P. Guevarra ◽  
Amy E. Peden ◽  
Lita L. Orbillo ◽  
Maria Rosario Sylvia Z. Uy ◽  
Joseph John R. Madrilejos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Action Plan ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Determinants Of Health ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Drowning Prevention ◽  
Water Transportation ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Increased Risk

Drowning is a public health issue in the Philippines, with children at significantly increased risk. Determinants of health (DoH) such as education, socio-economic status, ethnicity, and urbanization are factors that impact drowning risk. As drowning is a multisectoral issue, a national drowning prevention plan can drive collaboration with relevant stakeholders. This study reports trends in unintentional child (0–14 years) drowning in the Philippines (incidence, rates, and trends over time for fatal and non-fatal (years lived with a disability (YLDs) and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2008–2017 and conducts an analysis of the Philippines’ Multisector Action Plan (MSAP) on Drowning Prevention. From 2008–2017, 27,928 (95%UI [Uncertainty Interval]: 22,794–33,828) children aged 0–14 years died from drowning (52.7% aged 5–14 years old). Rates of drowning have declined among both age groups, with greater reductions seen among 0–4 year olds (y = −0.3368x + 13.035; R2 = 0.9588). The MSAP has 12 child drowning-specific activities and 20 activities were identified where DoH will need to be considered during development and implementation. The MSAP activities, and work done to prevent drowning more generally, must consider DoH such as education, urbanization, water and sanitation health, and safe water transportation. A national drowning surveillance system and investment in research in the Philippines are recommended.

The Wolf Is Really upon Us Now

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Abraham Lincoln ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
The Political ◽  
Middle Ground ◽  
Close Inspection ◽  
Close Analysis ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Gubernatorial Election

This chapter probes the presidential contest of 1860 between four major candidates: Democrat Stephen Douglas; Southern Democrat John C. Breckinridge; Republican Abraham Lincoln; and Constitutional Unionist John Bell. The chapter demonstrates that in spite of the political polarization within the nation and the ill-effects of John Brown’s raid, the moderate, middle ground political outlook of most white border southerners remarkably endured. The chapter contains a close inspection of each major party’s political activity within the Border South in the months before the election of 1860. It also includes a close analysis of the election results in both the presidential election and the 1860 Missouri gubernatorial election to demonstrate the staying power of the Border South’s moderate political notion.

Aggregate Economic Variables and Votes for Congress: A Rejoinder

1975 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 1266-1269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Arcelus ◽  
Allan H. Meltzer
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Implicit Theory ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Election Results

Our interest in the effect of aggregate economic variables on election results began in 1970 following a conversation with an administration official that we have reported elsewhere. We doubted both the implicit theory of voting behavior and the ability of the administration to achieve rates of inflation and unemployment even close to the ranges mentioned. We take this opportunity to note that the unemployment rate was higher and the inflation rate substantially higher than the adviser's estimate, but President Nixon was reelected.At the time, the principal econometric evidence of the effects of aggregate economic variables was a study by Kramer. Kramer found evidence of an effect of real income, but despite (or perhaps because of) the flaws in his procedure, he found no evidence of an effect of inflation or unemployment. Furthermore, then and now, most of the reported evidence pertains to congressional not presidential elections and to votes for congressmen, not seats in the Congress.

scholarly journals Economic Voting Theory in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 184-202
Author(s):  
Jhenica Mae L. Jurado ◽  
Jo Marj D. Villacorta ◽  
Peter Jeff C. Camaro, M.A
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Voting Theory ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Voting Model ◽  
Senatorial Elections

The study examined how the performance of the politicians influences the voters’ decisions in the elections. The researchers modified Reed’s (1994) performance-based voting model to evaluate the performance of the politicians during their term in office. Since the model is a repeated election framework, the researchers focused on the senatorial elections during the Arroyo to Duterte administration (2004-2019) in the Philippines. The framework was used to determine whether the prospective or retrospective voting theories occurred in the elections and was able to compute for the value of the office of the politicians and evaluate their performance in office. The study showed that the retrospective voting theory occurred more than the prospective voting theory. It also showed that the citizens would vote for the senator regardless of their performance in office.

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