The financial and economic substance of the contemporary Russian capitalism

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 2230-2251
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Credit Institutions

Subject. I herein focus on the capitalism in Russia today. Objectives. The study is an attempt to determine what distinguishes the financial and economic substance of the Russian capitalism today. Methods. The study relies upon the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The article reveals the difference of trends in general indicators of financial and business activities in capitalist Russia, socialist China and the imperialist USA. I discover development distinctions of the Russian economy, such as high growth rates of money supply, considerable simultaneous drop in foreign exchange rates, moderate debts of the Russian households and minimum wages, low unemployment rate, low growth rate of the current account balance to GDP as compared with the devaluation rate of the national currency. Having conducted the neural network analysis of growth rates of the money supply, solvency ratios and profitability of entities, financial results of the Russian credit institutions, I found median values of growth rates. Negative values were captured for the return on assets, return on sale of goods, products, work, services, and the equity-to-total assets ratio. Positive ones were found for total profit derived by operational credit institutions, losses and the percentage of unprofitable credit institutions. As the cluster analysis of growth rates of households’ consumption spending shows, there is a palpable correlation between food products and alcohol-free beverages, alcohol beverages, tobacco, clothes, shoes, communications. Conclusions and Relevance. The financial and economic substance of the contemporary Russian capitalism helps financial institutions and legislature consistently set up the concept and principles for retaining capitalism in Russia, considering the marginal proportions of the money supply growth to the unemployment rate, minimal wages, debt and consumption spending of households, which are adjusted within the possible divergence of the foreign exchange rate and current account balance to GDP. The findings constitute the necessary scope of governmental authorities’ competence to make managerial decisions for keeping the capitalist vector of the Russian society and economy.

The analysis of the self-evolution of the Russian educational system

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 758-780
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Educational System ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Social Reality ◽  
World Order ◽  
The Self ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
The Social

Subject. The article focuses on the self-motion of the Russian educational system. Objectives. The study determines directions of the self-evolution of the Russian educational system and shows the outcome. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I indicate what impedes the evolution and development of the Russian educational system. As a result of the neural network analysis of growth rates of the self-evolution of the Russian educational system and World Bank data, I figured out the hierarchy of material indicators of its structure. The hierarchy of the material indicators is declarative of the feminization of the Russian educational system in terms of its self-evolution, and the prevalence of women in the social reality. As a result of the cluster analysis of growth rates in the self-evolution of the Russian educational system, I revealed the cause of the feminization. Having analyzed growth rates of the self-evolution of the Russian educational system and referring to data of UNESCO Institute of Statistics, I completed a view of the future development of the Russian educational system. The self-evolution of the Russian educational system was found to have negative effects, such as a considerably slowed down growth in the number of younger schoolchildren and pre-school children, significantly lagging growth rates of governmental spending on education out of total governmental expenditures. Conclusions and Relevance. As the education system gets more and more important in the emerging world order, it is strategic for the national security. We witness the apparent feminization of the self-evolution of the Russian educational system, which changes principles of social development, paving the way to the predominance of women in the social reality. As the principles of the Russian society development change due to the feminization of the self-evolution of the Russian educational system, the uncertainty of its future existence grows even greater. The findings contribute to the required level of competence of governmental authorities to make administrative decisions that may save the Russian educational system.

Analyzing the "Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035" content

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-324
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Chuvash Republic ◽  
Number Of Visits ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses a strategy for socio-economic development of the region. Objectives. The purpose is to define contradictions and opportunities to achieve the expected results of the "Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035". Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The statistical analysis of trends in expected outcomes of the Strategy implementation enabled to build a median hierarchy of their growth rates, where the indicator of an increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions is a priority in setting the goals for the region’s development. The neural network analysis demonstrates the importance of the growth rate of real accrued wages of employees of organizations and the insignificant value of the increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions for effective achievement of all objectives of the Strategy. The cluster analysis shows the importance of growth rates of indicators of the proportion of organizations engaged in technological innovations, and the proportion of shipped innovative products. The analysis of growth rates of GRP and expenditures of the consolidated budget of the Chuvash Republic reveals a decrease in the cyclical lag of the first dynamic pattern from the second one. Conclusions. For the Chuvash Republic, a strategic priority is to overcome the GRP growth limit through the innovative development of backbone areas of economic activity.

Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

scholarly journals An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
Okosu Napoleon David
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
National Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

scholarly journals Pengaruh ekspor, utang luar negeri, neraca transaksi berjalan dan neraca transaksi modal terhadap cadangan devisa di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Graselita Aritonang ◽  
Amril Amril ◽  
Zulgani Zulgani
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Capital Account ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves

The purpose of this study is to (1) see the description of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance for the period 1998-2017. (2) analyze the effect of exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The method used in this research is quantitative descriptive analysis with multiple regression model analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study show that the average development of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves is 11.87 percent, exports are 7.38 percent, foreign debt is 4.51 percent, the current account balance is 514.89 percent and the capital account balance is 66.92 percent. Based on the results of the analysis carried out by exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves with a coefficient of determination of 98.37 percent. Keywords: Foreign exchange, export, Foreign debt, Current account, Capital account

scholarly journals Foreign Exchange Reserves

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abdur Rahim ◽  
Zahangin Alam
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Average Score ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Lm Test

This study is about foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh. The main purpose of this study is to the influence of exchange rateson foreign exchange reserves to the Bangladesh context. Both the primary and secondary data has been used in this study. The primary data has been collected through a structured questionnaire from 50 respondents. The secondary data, namely Bangladesh foreign exchange reserves (FER), Bangladesh current account balance (CAB), Bangladesh capital and financial account balance (CFAB), and BDT/USD exchange rates (ER). This study covers yearly data from July 01, 1996 to June 30, 2005 and quarterly data from July 01, 2005 to June 30, 2012. Findings of this study shows that out of the selected 16 factors affecting foreign exchange reserves, exchange rates occupy the first position, weighted average score (WAS) being 4.56. Foreign exchange reserves (FER) and current account balance (CAB) have increased by 502.9087% and 1451.218%, whereas capital and financial account (CFAB) has decreased by -649.024% on June 30, 2012 compared to June 30, 1997. The influence of other factors held constant, as ER changes by 285.6894 units due to one unit change in FER, on average in the same direction which represents that ER has positive effect on the FER and this relationship is statistically significant. 62.1526 percent of the variation in FER is explained by ER. The outcomes of Breusch-Godfrey test (LM test), ARCH test, and the Normality test are that there is a serial correlation among residuals, the variance of residuals is not constant, and the residuals are not normally distributed.

Analysis of Impact on Chinese Money Supply Caused by Funds Outstanding for Foreign Exchange

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (08) ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Tan ◽  
Hua Deng
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
The Impact

This paper did an empirical research on the impact of foreign exchange on the money supply, using Johansen co-integration testand getting a conclusion that the actions are in the same direction.

IMF Stabilization Programs, Policy Conduct and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Case Study of Pakistan

2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-62
Author(s):  
Nawaz A. Hakro ◽  
Wadho Waqar Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Imf

This study is designed to assess the macroeconomic performance of fund-supported programs, and the sequencing and ordering of macroeconomic policies in the context of the Pakistan economy. The generalized evaluation estimator technique has been used to assess the macroeconomic impacts of the IMF supported programs. GDP growth, inflation rate, current account balance, fiscal balance and unemployment are used as the target variables in order to gauge economic performance during the program years. The vector of policy variables (that might have been adopted in the absence of programs) and the vector of foreign exogenous variables are also taken as explanatory variables in the model, so that the individual effect of the IMF supported programs could be assessed. The result suggests that as the IMF prescriptions were applied, the current account balance has worsened, the unemployment rate has significantly increased, and the inflation rate has increased during the years of fund-supported programs. Only the budget balance has shown signs of improvement. Furthermore an inadequate sequencing of reforms has contributed to the further worsening of the economic scenario during the program period.

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