scholarly journals Slice forecast and its accuracy criterion

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 1559-1580
Author(s):  
Aleksandr I. KARPUKHIN
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Formulation ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Information Synthesis ◽  
Accuracy Criterion ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Forecast Technique ◽  
Economic Forecasts

Subject. This article provides a mathematical formulation of a slice-based forecast technique allowing a comprehensive assessment of future changes in the dynamics and structure of economic systems. The technique is based on an analysis and integration of a set of time series of heterogeneous indicators combined in a system logical algorithm of information synthesis called a slice. A slice forecast accuracy criterion is proposed as well. Objectives. Slice forecasts are designed to improve the quality and efficiency of economic forecasts. Methods. The slice forecast technique is based on a slice technology as a set of methods to collect, process, analyze, and synthesize information and knowledge. Results. The article presents a calculation based on eight series of macroeconomic indicators that characterize the development of the economy of the Russian Federation for the period from 2000 to 2021. It shows new possibilities of analysis and description of economic systems, cycles and crisis phenomena. Conclusions. The results obtained show that the slice technique helps solve a number of urgent problems to improve the quality of foreseeing future changes.

scholarly journals The evolution of free economic zones in Russian Federation as a determinant of regional development

2020 ◽  
pp. 6-13
Author(s):  
Maria Ignatieva ◽  
Yan Shokin
Keyword(s):  
Subject Area ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Qualitative Level ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Economic Zones ◽  
The Impact

In the context of a steady increase in the mutual dependence between the economic systems of various countries, the identification and quantitative analysis of key parameters determining the quality of development of the economic environment of individual states are becoming increasingly relevant; at the same time, it is certain that, not least, the qualitative level of the country's economic development is determined by the effective functioning of the territories of innovative development, that is, free economic zones.The report provides a detailed description of the subject area, namely, the classification of modern Russian SEZs and an overview of the main factors of their development; a set of factors is proposed for analyzing the impact of the functioning of SEZs on regional and macroeconomic indicators with the aim of further developing a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the functioning of free economic zones.

scholarly journals How Accurate Are Professional Economic Forecasts?

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Baghestani ◽  
David Nelson
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Economic Forecasts

<span>This paper examines the forecast accuracy of the ASA-NBER survey annual data on seven major macroeconomic indicators for 1983-1991. Although no single forecaster was consistently accurate, it is generally shown that (i) the average forecast error is reasonably low, (ii) the forecast accuracy and the forecasters agreement on their man forecast improve as the forecast horizon becomes shorter, and (iii) the consensus of professional forecasts is superior to the nae forecast.</span>

Risks and economic security of the life support system of citizens in the field of housing and communal services

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 175-191
Author(s):  
Vladimir M. Yakovlev
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Support System ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
Life Support ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Security System ◽  
Life Support System ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article analyzes the problems of the manifestation of risks of shadow and criminal activity in the life support system of citizens of the Russian Federation, the dissemination of which requires the development of effective measures to prevent and eliminate them. The most important issue is the formation of an effective economic security system with an emphasis on the new quality of life support for citizens of the Russian Federation in an adequate combination with the high growth rate of NTP in the Russian economy. The new technological structure emerging from the new achievements of scientific and technological progress involves the harmonization of the pace of scientific and technological development, combined with an adequate improvement in the quality of life support for citizens performing such achievements. Owing to this fact formation of new quality of the housing and communal services (HCS) as bases of life support of citizens becomes a prerequisite of increase in performance and intellectualization of human work. With this in mind, early recognition, prevention and elimination of risks of shadow and criminal activities in the housing and communal services system (housing and communal services) is considered as a significant mechanism to increase the effectiveness of the system of comfortable life support for citizens of the Russian Federation. The existing lag in the development of a high-quality and comfortable system for providing citizens of Russia on the basis of housing and communal services, the subject of which is the provision of quality and comfortable services, influenced by numerous risks of shadow and criminal influence, becomes a condition for intensifying economic development and increasing labor productivity on this basis. The need to develop and use modern scientific and technical achievements, especially in the field of digitalization, is emphasized in order to increase the efficiency of the economic security system of housing and communal services organizations based on innovative control mechanisms - internal control, audit, compliance control, taking into account financial investigations in order to prevent and eliminate the risks of shadow and criminal activities in the housing and communal services system.

Assessing the quality of public health in the Russian Federation and Israel: Main problems and solutions

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 618-632
Author(s):  
A.S. Panchenko
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Population Based ◽  
The Public ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life ◽  
Problems And Solutions ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Practical Recommendations

Subject. The article addresses the public health in the Russian Federation and Israel. Objectives. The focus is on researching the state of public health in Russia and Israel, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project methodology, identifying problem areas and searching for possible ways to improve the quality of health of the Russian population based on the experience of Israel. Methods. The study draws on the ideology of the GBD project, which is based on the Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) metric. Results. The paper reveals the main causes of DALY losses and important risk factors for cancer for Russia and Israel. The findings show that the total DALY losses for Russia exceed Israeli values. The same is true for cancer diseases. Conclusions. Activities in Israel aimed at improving the quality of public health, the effectiveness of which has been proven, can serve as practical recommendations for Russia. The method of analysis, using the ideology of the GBD project, can be used as a tool for quantitative and comparative assessment of the public health.

THE VALUE OF LOVE IN THE SYSTEM OF FORMATION OF THE PROFESSIONAL MATURITY OF THE EDUCATOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10(79)) ◽  
pp. 12-18
Author(s):  
G. Bubyreva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
The State ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Right

The existing legislation determines the education as "an integral and focused process of teaching and upbringing, which represents a socially important value and shall be implemented so as to meet the interests of the individual, the family, the society and the state". However, even in this part, the meaning of the notion ‘socially significant benefit is not specified and allows for a wide range of interpretation [2]. Yet the more inconcrete is the answer to the question – "who and how should determine the interests of the individual, the family and even the state?" The national doctrine of education in the Russian Federation, which determined the goals of teaching and upbringing, the ways to attain them by means of the state policy regulating the field of education, the target achievements of the development of the educational system for the period up to 2025, approved by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of October 4, 2000 #751, was abrogated by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of March 29, 2014 #245 [7]. The new doctrine has not been developed so far. The RAE Academician A.B. Khutorsky believes that the absence of the national doctrine of education presents a threat to national security and a violation of the right of citizens to quality education. Accordingly, the teacher has to solve the problem of achieving the harmony of interests of the individual, the family, the society and the government on their own, which, however, judging by the officially published results, is the task that exceeds the abilities of the participants of the educational process.  The particular concern about the results of the patriotic upbringing served as a basis for the legislative initiative of the RF President V. V. Putin, who introduced the project of an amendment to the Law of RF "About Education of the Russian Federation" to the State Duma in 2020, regarding the quality of patriotic upbringing [3]. Patriotism, considered by the President of RF V. V. Putin as the only possible idea to unite the nation is "THE FEELING OF LOVE OF THE MOTHERLAND" and the readiness for every sacrifice and heroic deed for the sake of the interests of your Motherland. However, the practicing educators experience shortfalls in efficient methodologies of patriotic upbringing, which should let them bring up citizens, loving their Motherland more than themselves. The article is dedicated to solution to this problem based on the Value-sense paradigm of upbringing educational dynasty of the Kurbatovs [15].

Data analysis of social hygiene monitoring in russian regions determining environmental and hygienic safety for population

2020 ◽  
pp. 60-66
Author(s):  
O. Klepikov ◽  
S. Eprintsev ◽  
S. Shekoyan
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Priority Pollutants ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Social Hygiene ◽  
Atmospheric Air ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Federal Center

Data of the Federal Information Fund for Social Hygiene Monitoring conducted on the basis of the Federal Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor have been analyzed to assess environmental risks, as well as to develop environmental safety system as a factor for sustainable development of the territory in the regions of the Russian Federation. Atmospheric air pollution in Russian regions was evaluated by content of priority pollutants. Ranking of Russian regions according to the quality of drinking water supply was carried out. The possibility of using Federal Information Fund for Social Hygiene Monitoring as an integral part of the model for optimizing the social and environmental conditions of populated areas is estimated.

Quality of laboratory tests as a basic component of treatment effectiveness

2020 ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Tamara Silkina ◽  
Olga Petrova
Keyword(s):  
General Practitioner ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Laboratory Tests ◽  
Treatment Effectiveness ◽  
Outpatient Setting ◽  
Basic Component ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article presents analysis of modern laboratory technologies and requirements for the quality of laboratory tests in the Russian Federation. Basic rules that improve the quality of laboratory tests at the preanalytical, analytical and postanalytical stage are studied on the example of tests in the Laboratory Hemotest. The optimal list of laboratory tests used in the practice of a general practitioner and organizational options for performing laboratory tests, the features of the process that affect the speed of obtaining a result by a doctor in an outpatient setting and in hospital, are presented.

The Random Forest Method in Research of Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators of Regional Development on Informal Employment Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 37-55
Author(s):  
E. V. Zarova ◽  
E. I. Dubravskaya
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Informal Employment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Random Forest Method ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The topic of quantitative research on informal employment has a consistently high relevance both in the Russian Federation and in other countries due to its high dependence on cyclicality and crisis stages in economic dynamics of countries with any level of economic development. Developing effective government policy measures to overcome the negative impact of informal employment requires special attention in theoretical and applied research to assessing the factors and conditions of informal employment in the Russian Federation including at the regional level. Such effects of informal employment as a shortfall in taxes, potential losses in production efficiency, and negative social consequences are a concern for the authorities of the federal and regional levels. Development of quantitative indicators to determine the level of informal employment in the regions, taking into account their specifics in the general spatial and economic system of Russia are necessary to overcome these negative effects. The article proposes and tests methods for solving the problem of assessing the impact of hierarchical relationships on macroeconomic factors at the regional level of informal employment in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Majority of the works on the study of informal employment are based on basic statistical methods of spatial-dynamic analysis, as well as on the now «traditional» methods of cluster and correlation-regression analysis. Without diminishing the merits of these methods, it should be noted that they are somewhat limited in identifying hidden structural connections and interdependencies in such a complex multidimensional phenomenon as informal employment. In order to substantiate the possibility of overcoming these limitations, the article proposes indicators of regional statistics that directly and indirectly characterize informal employment and also presents the possibilities of using the «random forest» method to identify groups of constituent entities of the Russian Federation that have similar macroeconomic factors of informal employment. The novelty of this method in terms of research objectives is that it allows one to assess the impact of macroeconomic indicators of regional development on the level of informal employment, taking into account the implicit, not predetermined by the initial hypotheses, hierarchical relationships of factor indicators. Based on the generalization of the studies presented in the literature, as well as the authors’ statistical calculations using Rosstat data, the authors came to the conclusion about the high importance of macroeconomic parameters of regional development and systemic relationships of macroeconomic indicators in substantiating the differentiation of the informal level across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document