Russia's position in the economic relations of the USA and China

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 1156-1178
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Direct Foreign Investment ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
The U.S

Subject. The article discusses the international economic relations. Objectives. I determine Russia's position in the economic relations of the USA and China. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I discovered the persisting dominance of the USA over the world economy due to a growth in broad money supply, which makes it the leader in food exports, trade balance and industrial exports. The same reasons helps the USA constrain some material aspects of economic growth in Russia and China, such as inflation, direct foreign investment, ultimate consumption spending, real interest rate, the ratio of broad money supply to total reserves, total value of traded stocks, export of food, goods and services. Trends in SPX, SHCOMP, RTSI и DXY, USDRUB, USDCNY, USDBRO shows that China strives to reach the U.S. economic level given the stable exchange rate. Raising USDRUB, Russia approaches DXY. In case of low USDBRO, RTSI growth will be significantly curbed. Considering commodities within foreign trade between Russia, the USA and China, I should point out resource exports, while importing technology from the USA and equipment from China. Conclusions and Relevance. Studying Russia's position in the U.S.–Chinese economic relations, I found that the Russian government should revise foreign trade priorities to end the political and economic independence on the above relations. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government members for making complementary administrative decision on sources of foreign trade and seizing opportunities for encouraging it.

To development drivers of the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1881-1899
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Active Recovery ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the development of Russia's economy. Objectives. The study attempts to discover development drivers of the Russian economy, the substance of economic growth during the contemporary capitalist cycle. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical and cluster analysis. Results. Evaluating the median and he Fischer test of quarterly growth rates of economic and financial indicators and their clustering with federal budget, I discovered what distinguished the Russian economy from socialist China (the dynamics of growth in GDP and exports); from leading capitalist economies, such as Germany and the USA (a decrease in the unemployment rate). I determine what maintains Russia's activity during the globalization, that is, a growth in Consumer Price Index and the devaluation of the national currency. I discovered dampering signs of the Russian economy during crises and the active recovery of the global economy. Conclusions and Relevance. What will drive the development of the Russian economy mainly depends on its position in the global economy and the dampering role of capitalist cycles, considering the contradictory development of productive forces and economic relations. The findings contribute to the knowledge and new competencies of public authorities to make administrative decisions on methods to advance the Russian economy.

Analyzing the dynamics of indicators of the Russian economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 753-771
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Military Security ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses the dynamics of the Russian economy indicators. Objectives. The aim is to identify sources and opportunities for the Russian economy growth. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The analysis of the currency, stock, and commodity market unveils the impulse effect on the MOEX index through the devaluation of the national currency and the issue of Russian Government Bonds. The analysis of the importance of GDP deflator by industry identifies the priority of economic activity ‘public administration and military security; social security’, which suppresses the economic activity ‘household activities as employers; undifferentiated activities of households to produce goods and provide services for their own consumption’. The structural integrity of economic activities is maintained through taxes on products. The dynamics of the share of GDP deflator growth and the index of output of goods and services revealed a low level of purchasing power and a rise in food inflation, as well as a significant upturn in inflation in the manufacturing sector after Q1 2020, which was caused by the increase in the cost of production and unit sales. Conclusions. The analyzed trends in the Russian economy indicators show a qualitative source of growth of the Russian economy, i.e. ‘people as an alternative oil’. This enables to move away from commodity dependence (RTSI) and actively use wide opportunities of growth (IMOEX).

A Russian approach to ensuring economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1234-1255
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates a Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Objectives. The aim is to identify the basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The paper defines the structural importance of exports of goods and services, and changes in inventories. It highlights significant links with public consumption expenditures. The Russian approach to ensuring economic growth comes down to devaluation of the national currencyб resulting from the loss of the real inflationary potential of economic growth to maintain the volume of exports of goods and services in the context of maintaining public consumption expenditures. The increase in M2 forces the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase its foreign exchange reserves. This has a restraining effect on the growth of Russian Ruble’s monetary exchange rate. This phenomenon causes a drop in the Russian federal loan bond (OFZ) index and a replacement of strategic priorities with tactical ones. Conclusions. The basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth is a reflection of the limits of the Russian economy development and the effectiveness of the Government of the Russian Federation.

Analyzing the consistency of the dynamics of the Russian financial capital components

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 851-874
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Financial Capital ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Speculative Behavior

Subject. The article discusses financial capital issues. Objectives. The study determines the consistency of the dynamics of the Russian financial capital components. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I analyze the dynamics of rates, such as USD/RUB, RGBI, RTSI, SBER, IMOEX, and discovered the speculative behavior of financial capital holders (IMOEX, USD/RUB, SBER) in the domestic (RGBI) and external (RTSI) market. Analyzing the importance of growth rates of GDP and its constituents, I found the State prioritized the regulation of the GDP deflator (The Central Bank – inflation targeting), considering a growth in governmental expenditures and the decreased importance of growth rates of GDP and households’ consumption expenditures, as the import of goods and services gets more important. The high importance of rates of growth in the export of goods and services is identical to Australia, Estonia and Columbia. Corporate relationships of the Central Bank and financial corporations focus on the regulation of money supply and currency outside financial corporations and internal claims. The relationships strengthen as the monetary policy get more concentrated on net claims to the central government and inflation targeting. Conclusions and Relevance. The scope of consistency of trends in the Russian financial capital components allows public authorities to regulate a growth in the corporate relations of the Central Bank and financial corporations in order to curb the speculative behavior of financial capital holders. The findings hereof contribute to the knowledge and competence of officials of the Russian Government and the Federal Antimonopoly Services with respect to systemic decisions on control over financial transactions.

scholarly journals Crisis in Bilateral Economic Cooperation between Russia and Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-208
Author(s):  
K. A. Nikulin
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
Economic Interaction ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Trade And Investment

The article examines the dynamics and features of the trade and economic partnership between Spain and Russia from 2014 to the present, considering the latest challenges. The once promising trajectory of the development of bilateral trade and mutual investment has undergone significant tests: in addition to the sanctions pressure of the collective West countries, the situation has been complicated by the global crisis in the world economy, significant changes in world markets for goods and services, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In these conditions, the study of indicators of Russian-Spanish trade and economic interaction is of interest both from the point of view of forming a forecast for the development of bilateral economic relations and highlighting those industries towards which the emphasis in trade and investment is gradually shifting. The question arises: is it possible to return to the indicators of bilateral trade and investment inherent in Russian-Spanish economic relations before the imposition of sanctions? The data on the bilateral trade presented by the Russian and Spanish national statistics differ insignificantly in terms of the total trade turnover but have severe differences at the level of the trade balance. Based on both countries’ statistical databases, the author of the article presents the possible reasons for such discrepancies and considers the general dynamics of the state of foreign trade between Russia and Spain. In addition to stating the negative trends in foreign trade, there are problems in investment cooperation, which until recently was considered one of the “strongholds” of bilateral cooperation under the pressure of sanctions.

scholarly journals US-China trade conflict: causes and consequences

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

At the present stage of development of international economic relations special attention is paid to the study of the relations between the countries that are the world leaders in terms of GDP and foreign trade – the USA and China. This is due to the fact that in recent years the US have introduced a number of measures to counteract the growth of Chinese exports, which has led to backlash from China. The subject of the study is the foreign trade relations of the USA and China. The goal is to analyze the influence of protectionist measures applied by the US and China on the development of their foreign economic relations. The following objectives are set: to determine the level of economic interdependence of the USA and the PRC, to investigate their impact on mutual trade flows and to analyze the dynamics of bilateral trade of countries under restrictive measures. The following methods are: comparative analysis, systematization and generalization, construction of regression models. The results of the analysis revealed that the US and PRC current accounts show reverse dynamics: the United States demonstrates stable deficit, while China has had surplus for many years. Moreover, the structures of the current accounts do differ a lot as well: the US is totally services-oriented country, whereas China is a major exporter of goods. It can be observed that both countries have experienced a recession of foreign economic activity since 2018, as far as their current account balances decreased substantially, which is likely to be the consequence of tariff barriers imposed by the US and PRC. Furthermore, due to trade confrontation, bilateral trade between these countries declines significantly as well, so that now China and the United States are forced to look for new export markets. The results of the regression models allow concluding that import from China is indeed having a negative impact on US exports, which has led to the US restrictions on imports from China. However, the introduction of mutual restrictions did not lead to an improvement of the US foreign trade.

The analysis of the substance of economic growth in Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1737-1761
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Internal Resources ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Subject. The article investigates the substance of Russia’s economic growth. Objectives. I determine what circumstances influence the substance of the economic growth in Russia. Methods. The study relies upon the systems approach, methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. It is important to analyze the substance of the economic growth in Russia. The Russian resources were found to be actively provided to other countries via capital and current transfers. Growth rates in the consolidated account gets less variable since the statistical variance was significantly adjusted with respect to capital translations, and product subsidies were limited, including products for State-owned enterprises, exports and imports. As a priority of the Russian economic economic growth, it focuses on the generation of income. I also discovered considerable links to the consolidated account. The Russian economy is oriented at the reallocation of available income among sectors so that savings and capital transfers could be made. Doing so, the country will subsequently acquire non-financial assets on the free-hold basis and interest in the production process. Internal resources of the sustainable economic growth were found to deplete under the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia and Russia’s Ministry of Finance. Conclusions and Relevance. Shaping the substance of the economic growth in Russia, such circumstance demonstrate to governmental authorities that the goal of the socioeconomic development should be achieved with different methods. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government for purposes of economic growth.

Analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2050-2077
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Governmental Institutions ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Bank System

Subject. The article studies the financial composition of the Russian market. Objectives. The study identifies scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian market. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The study emphasizes the importance of analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market. The Bank of Russia pursues a growth in the gross volume of loans granted by the financial system to individuals, enterprises, non-financial governmental institutions. It also tries to increment international reserves and less marketable, non-reserve assets. Depository corporations keep an eye on possible changes in requirements the bank system may set for governmental authorities of the Russian Federation, financial institutions of the Russian subjects and local authorities, governmental and other extra-budgetary funds. The study sets forth two appropriate scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian economy. I discovered that the clustering process depends in GDP at all key phases, such as production, distribution and use, and the Bank of Russia’s requirements to other financial and non-financial institutions in Rubles and foreign currency, and requirements of credit institutions to people. Basically, the macroprudential policy of the Bank of Russia shapes the financial composition of the Russian market. Conclusions and Relevance. The scenarios of the financial composition of the Russian market help the Russian government keep their activities in accordance with the Bank of Russia. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to ensure the economic growth.

The analysis of structural relations in the Russian economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1344-1366
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Constructive Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Structural Relations ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates structural relations in Russia’s economy. Objectives. I delve into the basis for structural relations in Russia’s economy. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I spotlight the establishment of optimal structural relations in the Russian economy. The article presents a set of material properties of the Russian economy, which hamper the emergence of optimal structural relations, sustainable growth and constructive development in the modern circumstances. What underlies structural relations in Russia is that its growth can be fed with domestic borrowings and paid services for the public, retail turnover, which depend on salaries and investment in capital stock, while changes in the foreign exchange rate are pegged to the turnover of foreign trade and deficit (surplus) of the consolidated budget. Conclusions and Relevance. Maintained with domestic borrowings and variation of the foreign exchange rate, economic growth, as the basis for structural relations in the Russian economy, is a sufficient indicator to evaluate the performance of the Russian government. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to set up consistent goals for creating optimal structural relations in the Russian economy.

scholarly journals Compensation for damages due to a failure to perform a contractual obligation in a purchase and sales contract in foreign trade operations

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-43
Author(s):  
Tanja Praštalo ◽  
Dušanka Đurđev
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Property Values ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Acceptable Solution ◽  
National Legislation ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Contractual Obligation ◽  
State Economy

One of the oldest human activities is the trade of goods, services, money and other property values both within a country and abroad. Foreign trade business has an exceptional importance for socio-economic relations between countries. Each state independently regulates the trade of goods and services. However, no state economy is self-sufficient, so its need to join the international markets is quite justified. Through a mutual trade cooperation, states transfer the effects of the concluded agreements beyond their borders, and the need for the unification of certain norms is absolutely necessary, as well as the regulation of the issue of a breach of contractual obligation and compensation for damages as a consequence resulting from such a thing. Some countries have a fear of ratifying the international rules, because they think that the accepted solutions would be contrary to their national legislation. There is mentioned only one of the reasons for the states resistance, as well as the difficulties in achieving the unique acceptable solution. This paper analyzes the concept, the importance of foreign trade business for countries, then the rights and obligations of the contracting parties and the compensation for damage due to a breach of a contractual obligation by non-performance in the sales contract.

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