scholarly journals The impact of some macroeconomic indicators on exchange rate fluctuations in Sudan in the period (1990- 2016): أثر بعض مؤشرات الاقتصاد الكلي على تقلبات أسعار الصرف في السودان في الفترة (1990- 2016)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelsamie Eltaeb Tayfor
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Data Collection And Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Increase Productivity ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to identify the determinants and economic variables that affect the exchange rate in Sudan during the period (1990- 2016). The study used the descriptive analytical approach in data collection and analysis as well as the use of econometric methods in the construction of economic models and analysis of time series regression models to verify the existence of a long- term integrative relationship between independent variables and dependent variable. The results of the study showed a positive correlation between GDP, degree of economic openness, inflation and exchange rate during the study years, and an inverse relationship between money supply and exchange rate. The study recommended the need to move away from administrative decisions in determining the exchange rate, while achieving greater flexibility in the exchange rate, and increased interest in bank financing of projects that lead to increase productivity and improve GDP and thus improve the exchange rate by encouraging domestic exports.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

scholarly journals The Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Financial Markets

Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Mirzosaid Sultonov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s international comportment and geostrategic moves, particularly the invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, caused a substantial change in its international economic and political relations. In response to Russia’s invasion, the United States of America, the European Union, and their allies imposed a series of sanctions. In this study, by applying an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to daily logarithmic returns of the ruble exchange rate and the closing price index of the Russian Trading System, we analyze how the returns and volatility of the exchange rate and the stock price index responded to the sanctions and oil price changes. The estimation results show that the sanctions have a significant positive short-term impact on exchange rate returns. Economic sanctions have a significant negative long-term impact on the returns and variance of the exchange rate and a significant positive long-term impact on the returns of the stock price index. Financial sanctions have a positive/negative long-term impact on the returns of the exchange rate/stock price index and a positive long-term impact on the variance of the exchange rate and the stock price index. Corporate sanctions have a positive long-term impact on exchange rate returns.

The impact of news on the exchange rate of the lira and long-term interest rates

2002 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Fornari ◽  
Carlo Monticelli ◽  
Marcello Pericoli ◽  
Massimo Tivegna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Coping with the Exceptional Economic Problems in Turkey: A Field Survey on SMES

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ercan Özen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Important Place ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Developing countries need higher economic growth to reach the level of developed countries. When developing countries exceed the potential economic growth, problems, such as, high external debt and high current deficit emerge. Such situations increase the financial risk of the country; in addition, international political risks, fluctuations in capital inflows and some manipulative movements have subjected countries to extreme exchange rate fluctuations. Purposes of this research: (1) to uncover the impact of high exchange rate volatility on small business activities and (2) to determine whether the level of exposure of the exchange rate shock on business owners varies by age. The methodology of the study involved a survey administered to 390 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The findings of the study show that after a period of significant exchange rate fluctuations, business activities were negatively affected, sales decreased, and job cuts increased. On the other hand, the exchange rate effect was mostly felt by all business owners of different ages. According to the study, it can be concluded that small enterprises are vulnerable to rising exchange rate volatility. The effect on SMEs with more work experience is not different. In order to alleviate the effects of adverse exchange rate movements, enterprises should be more cautious in their activities. Two suggestions can be made at this point: (i) Governments should follow optimal growth policies and (ii) Small businesses that have an important place in the economy should be made aware of the exchange rate risk and crisis management.

scholarly journals Impacts of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam: time-varying vs fixed coefficient cointegrations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Dinh Long ◽  
Bui Quang Hien ◽  
Pham Thi Bich Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Coefficient Estimates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Shed Light

PurposeThe paper aims to shed light on the effects of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam by using time-varying cointegration.Design/methodology/approachUsing cointegration techniques with fixed coefficient and time-varying coefficient, the study exams the impacts of inflation in models and compares the results through coefficient estimates.FindingsA significant inflation impacts are found with the time-varying cointegration but not with the fixed coefficient cointegration models. Moreover, monetary policy affects exchange rate not only directly via its instruments as money supply and interest rate but indirectly via inflation. Also, interest rate is one of the determinants of gold price.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use time-varying cointegration to analyze the impact of inflation on the gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam. Gold price and exchange rate fluctuations are always the essential and striking issues, which have been emphasized by economists and policymakers. In macroeconometric researches, cointegration models are often used to analyze the long-term relations between variables. Attentionally, applied models show a limitation when estimating coefficients are fixed. This characteristic might not really match with the data properties and the variation of the economy. Currently, time-varying cointegration models are emerging method to solve the above issue.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Response on Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferry Syarifuddin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Interest

Bank Indonesia has been implementing Enhanced Inflation Targeting Framework (EITF) since few years ago. The main monetary instrument is short term policy interest rate. The policy interest rate, in this regard, may also have significant role in driving the exchange rate to its desired level. Setting appropriate the interest rate to drive the exchange rate is important to drive the actual inflation to its official target. In order to see the response of policy interest rate to exchange rate dynamics as well as the impact of exchange-rate dynamics to macroeconomic indicators, Structural Co-integrating Vector Auto Regression (SC-VAR) in an open economy model, is implemented. Its finding shows that exchange rate dynamic of USD/IDR has significantly positive relationship with domestic interest rate. The increase of the USD/IDR (depreciation) will then push domestic interest rate to increase.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-279
Author(s):  
Minh Thi Hong Le ◽  
Ha Thi Cam Huynh ◽  
Hong Thi Thu Dinh ◽  
Minh Thi Hong Le ◽  
Ha Thi Cam Huynh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Exchange Rate Exposure ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Net Export ◽  
The Impact

The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the panel data and, then, a GMM estimator is employed to ensure the consistency of the estimates. The results point out that the exchange rate exposure of these countries is asymmetric. At market level, for a rise in the exchange rate (or local currency depreciates), the average stock returns tend to decrease. However, due to the favourable impact of currency depreciation on the net export position, the reduction speed of stock returns is faster than the rising speed of the exchange rate.

scholarly journals The impact of monetary policy on budgetary balance

2020 ◽  
pp. 128-135
Author(s):  
Nataliia Husarevych ◽  
Yuliya Markuts
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Effective Interaction ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Strategic Objective ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Relevance of the research topic. In the context of financial globalization, it is important to determine the impact of monetary policy on budgetary balance, ensure sustainable economic development, and support macroeconomic equilibrium in the country. The study of the impact of monetary policy on a balanced budget is very relevant. Formulation of the problem. Under the conditions of transformational changes, the exchange rate and the peculiarities of its formation are an integral part of ensuring the development of the country's financial system. Of particular importance is the issue of ensuring the effective interaction of monetary and budgetary policies as one of the most important factors in the development of the economy through reindustrialization and modernization. Analysis of recent research and publications. The problem of the state’s monetary policy is today quite relevant for most countries of the world and widespread in the scientific works of famous foreign and domestic scientists: T. Bogolib, V. Heyets, I. Zapatrina, J. M. Keynes, N. Kornienko, A. Laffer, I. Lyutyi, A. Mazaraki, R. Masgrayev, V. Makogon, V. Oparin, M. Pasichnyi, A. Smith, J. Stiglitz, V. Fedosov, I. Chugunov, S. Yurii and others. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. However, there are a number of insufficiently disclosed issues regarding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on significant macroeconomic indicators in the context of economic transformation. Setting the task, the purpose of the study. The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of the exchange rate on budgetary balance. The aim of the study is to determine the main objectives of the monetary policy of Ukraine. Method or methodology for conducting research. The article uses a set of scientific methods: the system approach, statistical analysis, structuring, analysis and synthesis. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The article analyzes the exchange rate and determines its effect on the formation of the budget deficit and public debt. The task of modern monetary and foreign exchange policy is delivered, directions of ensuring effective interaction of monetary and budget policies are considered. The field of application of results. The results of this study can be applied in the process of formation and implementation of the monetary policy of Ukraine. Conclusions according to the article. Maintaining balance and stability of budgets of various levels is a strategic objective of budget policy, especially in the context of transformational changes. Budget balance is characterized by the ratio of budget expenditures and revenues, their proportional change in economic uncertainty. It is important to ensure the effective interaction of monetary and budgetary policies as one of the most important factors in the development of the economy through reindustrialization and modernization. The solution of these issues involves an objective assessment of the situation in the domestic and world economies, taking into account the country's real capabilities in achieving the main strategic goals and ensuring economic development.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PREDICTING INDONESIAN SHARIA STOCK INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 223
Author(s):  
Angga Khoerul Umam ◽  
Ririn Tri Ratnasari ◽  
Sri Herianingrum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThis study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, interest rates, industrial production index, SBIS and inflation on the Indonesian Islamic stock index. This study uses monthly data from May 2011 to December 2018. This research is a quantitative study that applies the Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. The findings indicate the existence of short-term and long-term causality between macroeconomic variables and the Indonesian Islamic stock index. Especially in the long run, industrial production index and inflation have a significant effect on ISSI, while the exchange rate, interest rates and SBIS have no significant effect on ISSI. IRF results show that the response of each variable and stable at different times. The ISSI response experienced a positive shock that occurred in the industrial production index and inflation. On the other hand, the exchange rate, the Bungan rate and SBIS were responded negatively by ISSI.

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rates on economic growth in Iraq for the period 1995-2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Asaad Hamdi Maher
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The One ◽  
Main Engine ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Growth Models

The currency is the main engine of the process of trade at the internal and external levels, and the exchange rate is one of the fundamentals of the foreign trade to settle international payments, as the import process to the currency of the country of origin to pay the value of imported goods on the one hand, on the other hand, we find that individuals in the case their travel to another country they need the currency of the country they travel to, and in this case they find themselves in the process of exchange, so that shifting in the exchange rate affect the process of trade and thus on economic growth. Based on the above, the title of the topic, which aims to identify the theoretical framework of exchange rates and economic growth models as well as measuring the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth in Iraq, has been chosen by formulating a standard model for the period 1995-2015

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