scholarly journals Análise da Variação Sazonal e de Tendências na Precipitação Pluviométrica no Município de Juazeiro-BA

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 2641
Author(s):  
Henrique Santos Junqueira ◽  
Luan Moreira Fernandes de Almeida ◽  
Tailan Santos de Souza ◽  
Patricia Dos Santos Nascimento
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Rainy Period ◽  
Precipitation Concentration Index ◽  
A Value ◽  
Daily Series ◽  
Climate Series ◽  
Kendall Method

A cidade de Juazeiro-BA destaca-se por ser um importante polo de desenvolvimento agrícola em bases irrigadas no Nordeste, no qual a distribuição sazonal da precipitação pluviométrica tem influência decisiva no contexto da relação saúde e saneamento em áreas urbanizadas, na agricultura familiar, no abastecimento de água de famílias isoladas e na economia dessa região. Assim, essa pesquisa tem como objetivo avaliar a distribuição das chuvas no município de Juazeiro-BA, analisando uma série diária de 32 anos de dados pluviométricos, calculando os valores anuais e sazonais do Índice de Concentração da Precipitação (ICP) e realizando um estudo de tendência da precipitação pluviométrica, a partir do método de Mann-Kendall. Os resultados revelaram que, em Juazeiro, o período chuvoso é bem definido, com os maiores índices de precipitação entre os meses de dezembro e março. O ICP anual tem o valor de 28,48 %, indicando alta irregularidade na distribuição das chuvas anuais, possibilitando a ocorrência de eventos extremos, tanto de inundações quanto de escassez hídrica. O teste de Mann-Kendall, para o período em estudo, apresentou tendência de diminuição da média pluviométrica anual em 7,51 mm, o que pode aumentar o déficit hídrico na região.Palavras-chave: Chuvas; Séries Climáticas; Concentração Pluviométrica; Mann-Kendall. Seasonal Variation and Trend in Rainfall in the Municipality of Juazeiro-BA A B S T R A C TThe city of Juazeiro-BA stands out for being an important agricultural development hub on irrigated bases in the Northeast, in which the seasonal distribution of pluviometric precipitation has a decisive influence in the context of the health and sanitation relationship in urbanized areas, in family agriculture, in water supplying of isolated families and the economy of that region. Thus, this research aims to assess the distribution of rainfall in the municipality of Juazeiro-BA, analyzing a daily series of 32 years of rainfall data, calculating the annual and seasonal values of the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) and conducting a rainfall trend study, using the Mann-Kendall method. The results revealed that, in Juazeiro, the rainy period is well defined, with the highest levels of precipitation between the months of December and March. The annual PCI has a value of 28.48 %, indicating a high irregularity in the distribution of annual rainfall, enabling the occurrence of extreme events, both floods and water scarcity. The Mann-Kendall test, for the period under study, presented tendency decrease of the annual rainfall average by 7.51 mm, which may increase the water deficit in the region.Keywords: Rainfall; Climate Series; Rain Concentration; Mann-Kendall.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-125
Author(s):  
Virendra N. Barai ◽  
Rohini M. Kalunge
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Trend Magnitude ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Multiple Units ◽  
Rainy Days

This article aims to review studies pertaining to trends in rainfall, rainy days over India. Non-parametric tests such as Sen’s Slope were used as estimator of trend magnitude which was supported by Mann-Kendall test. The findings of various studies indicate variance with respect to the rainfall rate, which contributes to an uncertain picture of the rainfall trend. In the study of monsoon of different locations in India some places showed increasing trends however, there is signifying decrease in trend all over India. It was also mentioned that analysis can vary from for a location if done using different source or types of collection of data. Spatial units range from station results and sub-division to sub-basin/river basins for trend analysis. The outcomes of the different experiments vary and a simple and reliable picture of the trend of rainfall has not appeared. While there can be a non-zero slope value for the multiple units (sub-basins or sub-divisions), few values are statistically important. In a basin-wise trend analysis report, some basins had a declining annual rainfall trend; at a 95 per cent confidence stage, only one basin showed a strong decreasing trend. Out of the six basins exhibiting a rising trend saw a major positive trend in one basin. Many of the basins have the same pattern direction on the annual and seasonal scale for rainfall and rainy days.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis and weather forecast accuracy in selected parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fakhri Alam ◽  
Muhammad Salam ◽  
Nasir Ahmad Khalil ◽  
Owais khan ◽  
Masaud Khan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Nonparametric Techniques

AbstractClimate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various effects on people's environmental and socioeconomic conditions. In the agricultural economy that is susceptible to natural changes, its impact is more profound. Therefore, climate change directly affects society in different ways, and society must pay a price. Climate change, especially the changes in annual temperature and rainfall, has attracted widespread attention worldwide. The variability of these factors or the magnitude of fluctuations varies according to location. Therefore, in the context of climate change, especially in countries dominated by rainfed agriculture, studying the trend of meteorological variables is essential to assess climate-induced variations and propose feasible adaptation approaches. Focusing on this fact is the main goal of this research study was to determine the rainfall trend and the accuracy of predicted temperature at three particular stations of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kp) Province, Pakistan. For this purpose, rainfall and temperature data were provided by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, for the period 1960–2020. Two types of nonparametric techniques, Sen’s slope estimate and the Mann–Kendall test, were applied to determine a trend in the average monthly and annual rainfall. The results of the annual rainfall trend analysis showed that Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan stations showed a positive increasing trend, while the monthly rainfall trend showed a negative decreasing trend for all stations. The trend was statistically significant for Peshawar and Saidu Sharif stations. The accuracy of predicted and actual temperature and rainfall indicated that mostly over-forecast occurred at Saidu Sharif and Peshawar. Most of the precipitation and temperature records showed under forecast for Dera Ismail Khan, but some over-prediction has also occurred. Graphical abstract

scholarly journals Rainfall Trend Analysis in Tehsils of Palghar District, Maharashtra State, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 238-253
Author(s):  
Dr. Sumit M. Dhak
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Slope Estimator

Abstract: A detailed trend analysis of monthly and annual rainfall for Tehsils of Palghar district were carried out using 22 years (1998-2019) daily rainfall data taken from Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State. In this study, to analyse the trend, the non-parametric test (Mann-Kendall test) and Sen’s slope estimator were used. For developing a functional relationship between variables, a linear trend of rainfall data for the studied area evaluated using the linear regression. The results showed that the trend analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of rainfall in the rainy months in tehsil of Palghar District. The month of July significant increasing trend was observed at Jawhar (42.91 mm/year), Vikramgad (29.90 mm/year), Wada (24.06 mm/year), Talasari (31.36 mm/year), Palghar (25.299 mm/year), Mokhada (29.96 mm/year) and Dahanu (38.14 mm/year), whereas non-significant increasing trend 2.76 mm/year was observed at Vasai tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The month of June, August, September and October rainfall did not show any significant trend in tehsil of Palghar District and non significant decreasing as well as non significant increasing trend was observed in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 – 2019. The result concluded that annual rainfall trend was increased in Jawhar, Vikramgad, Wada, Talasari, Palghar, Mokhada and Dahanu; whereas Vasai tehsil rainfall trend was decreased in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 -2019. Keywords: Rainfall, Trend Analysis, Mann Kendall’s Test, Sen Slopes, Regression

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal Variability and Trends in Rainfall and Temperature in Anger watershed, Southwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 462-472
Author(s):  
Gemechu Yigezu Ofgeha ◽  
Muluneh Woldetsadik Abshire
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
High Rainfall ◽  
Southwestern Ethiopia ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Small Scale Farmers ◽  
Increasing Trends

Insights to broadly argued research gap on lack of climate studies at micro-scale considering unique features of an area, this paper intended to examine agro-ecological level spatio-temporal trends and variability in rainfall and temperature in Anger watershed of southwestern Ethiopia. The gridded data managed by the Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) for 1983-2018 were used. The Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis and different variability measures were used. Questionnaire and FGD data on community perceptions gathered from 214 households and elders were analysed descriptively and qualitatively. The study reveals the consistent increasing trends in temperature; and high variability and insignificant but increasing rainfall trend. The trends and variability show spatio-temporal differences along agro-ecologies. The watershed is characterized by moderate to high rainfall coefficient of variations, significant years of high rainfall concentration, and considerable negative annual rainfall anomalies; that the variability was severe in woinadega followed by kolla agro-ecology. Although, the perceptions on trends, variability and its implications show difference across agro-ecology, the propensity to increased temperature, unclear rainfall trend and significant inter-annual and seasonal variability were witnessed. Unpredictability of rainfall time, concentrations in kiremt, and unexpected rain during harvesting was major challenges resulting multifaceted impacts on the small-scale farmers’ livelihoods.

MANN-KENDALL TEST: TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE, RAINFALL AND DISCHARGE OF GHOTKI FEEDER CANAL IN DISTRICT GHOTKI, SINDH, PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-142
Author(s):  
Shoukat Ali Shah ◽  
Madeeha Kiran
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Flow ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Rabi Season ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Temperature and precipitation variations have huge environmental, socio-economic impacts. This study aims to detect the trend of temperature, precipitation, and discharge from 2000-2020 in the district Ghotki. Mann Kendal test and Sen’s slope were applied by using XLSTAT in MS Excel to investigate the significance of all trends. The results showed that the annual rainfall trend was increased with the highest intensity noted in 2003; 275mm and 2010; 271 mm. The trend in the monsoon season was increased with the highest slope 0.863 by comparing with non-monsoon which showed the slope was 0.642. The annual temperature was increased an average temperature recorded in 2016; 28.5 & 2018; 28 °C. Further, the summer-autumn season’s trend has sharply increased. While the trend of Ghotki feeder discharge was slightly increased in January due to the continuous flow of water and less demand for water during the Rabi season. But in July, the highest discharge was recorded in 2010 due to heavy rainfall and flood situations over the study area. The trend in Kharif was continuously declined due to farmers started sowing sugarcane crops instead of rice and cotton which need less irrigation water. It is concluded that the performance of MK and SS tests was consistent at the verified significance level.

scholarly journals Assessment of seasonal and annual rainfall trend in Calabria (southern Italy) with the ITA method

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 738-748 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Caloiero ◽  
R. Coscarelli ◽  
E. Ferrari
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Entire Study Area

Abstract In this paper, an investigation on the temporal variability of seasonal and annual rainfall in the Calabria region (southern Italy) was carried out using a homogeneous and gap-filled monthly rainfall dataset of 129 rain gauges in the period 1951–2006. In particular, possible trends have been assessed by means of the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) technique, which allows the identification of a trend in the low, medium and high values of a series. Moreover, the results obtained with the ITA have been compared with the ones obtained with the Mann–Kendall test. These analyses have been performed in five rainfall zones (RZs) of the study area, characterized by different climatic conditions. As a result, both the methods evidenced a negative trend of the annual rainfall in the entire study area. On a seasonal scale, this negative tendency has been confirmed in autumn and winter although with some differences among the several RZs.

scholarly journals Assessing Impact of Climate Variability in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh Using Livelihood Vulnerability Index

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Sabrina Mehzabin ◽  
M. Shahjahan Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Precipitation Concentration Index ◽  
Coastal Bangladesh ◽  
Present Decade ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzed the variability of rainfall and temperature in southwest coastal Bangladesh and assessed the impact of such variability on local livelihood in the last two decades. The variability analysis involved the use of coefficient of variation (CV), standardized precipitation anomaly (Z), and precipitation concentration index (PCI). Linear regression analysis was conducted to assess the trends, and a Mann–Kendall test was performed to detect the significance of the trends. The impact of climate variability was assessed by using a livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), which consisted of six livelihood components with several sub-components under each component. Primary data to construct the LVIs were collected through a semi-structed questionnaire survey of 132 households in a coastal polder. The survey data were triangulated and supplemented with qualitative data from focused group discussions and key informant interviews. The results showed significant rises in temperature in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Though there were no discernable trends in annual and seasonal rainfalls, the anomalies increased in the dry season. The annual PCI and Z were found to capture the climate variability better than the currently used mean monthly standard deviation. The comparison of the LVIs of the present decade with the past indicated that the livelihood vulnerability, particularly in the water component, had increased in the coastal polder due to the increases in natural hazards and climate variability. The index-based vulnerability analysis conducted in this study can be adapted for livelihood vulnerability assessment in deltaic coastal areas of Asia and Africa.

scholarly journals Kecenderungan dan Perubahan Hujan Ekstrem Harian di Pulau Madura

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
Ahmad Nur Akma Juangga Fura ◽  
Retno Utami Agung Wiyono ◽  
Indarto Indarto
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
High Level ◽  
Crossing Test

Madura subject to a high level of flood hazard. One of the main causes of flood is extreme rainfall. Global warming generates changes in the amount of extreme rainfall. This research is conducted to identify and to analyze the trends, changes, and randomness of 24-hour extreme rainfall data on Madura Island. The method used is a non-parametric method which includes the Median Crossing test, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Rank-Sum test at the significance level of α =0.05. The analysis was carried out on 31 rain gauge stations. The recording period observed is between 1991-2015. The results of the analysis show that based on the Median Crossing test, most rainfall stations have data originating from random processes. The result shows also that the maximum 24-hour extreme rainfall trend is significantly decreased in a few locations, while for the majority of other stations have no experience a significant trend.

Extreme Rainfall Events in the Macro-Metropolis of São Paulo: trends and connection with climate oscillations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyne B. Machado ◽  
Thamiris L. O. B. Campos ◽  
Sameh A. Abou Rafee ◽  
Jorge A. Martins ◽  
Alice M. Grimm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Climatic Indices

AbstractIn the present work, the trend of extreme rainfall indices in the Macro-Metropolis of São Paulo (MMSP) was analyzed and correlated with largescale climatic oscillations. A cluster analysis divided a set of rain gauge stations into three homogeneous regions within MMSP, according to the annual cycle of rainfall. The entire MMSP presented an increase in the total annual rainfall, from 1940 to 2016, of 3 mm per year on average, according to Mann-Kendall test. However, there is evidence that the more urbanized areas have a greater increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, while coastal and mountainous areas, and regions outside large urban areas, have increasing rainfall in a better-distributed way throughout the year. The evolution of extreme rainfall (95th percentile) is significantly correlated with climatic indices. In the center-north part of the MMSP, the combination of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) explains 45% of the P95th increase during the wet season. In turn, in southern MMSP, the Temperature of South Atlantic (TSA), the AAO, the El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) and the Multidecadal Oscillation of the North Atlantic (AMO) better explain the increase in extreme rainfall (R2 = 0.47). However, the same is not observed during the dry season, in which the P95th variation was only negatively correlated with the AMO, undergoing a decrease from the ‘70s until the beginning of this century. The occurrence of rainy anomalous months proved to be more frequent and associated with climatic indices than dry months.

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