Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 measures, Canada, March to July 2020

Background Many countries have implemented population-wide interventions to control COVID-19, with varying extent and success. Many jurisdictions have moved to relax measures, while others have intensified efforts to reduce transmission. Aim We aimed to determine the time frame between a population-level change in COVID-19 measures and its impact on the number of cases. Methods We examined how long it takes for there to be a substantial difference between the number of cases that occur following a change in COVID-19 physical distancing measures and those that would have occurred at baseline. We then examined how long it takes to observe this difference, given delays and noise in reported cases. We used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR)-type model and publicly available data from British Columbia, Canada, collected between March and July 2020. Results It takes 10 days or more before we expect a substantial difference in the number of cases following a change in COVID-19 control measures, but 20–26 days to detect the impact of the change in reported data. The time frames are longer for smaller changes in control measures and are impacted by testing and reporting processes, with delays reaching ≥ 30 days. Conclusion The time until a change in control measures has an observed impact is longer than the mean incubation period of COVID-19 and the commonly used 14-day time period. Policymakers and practitioners should consider this when assessing the impact of policy changes. Rapid, consistent and real-time COVID-19 surveillance is important to minimise these time frames.

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Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 control measures

10.1101/2020.06.14.20131177 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jessica E Stockdale ◽

Renny Doig ◽

Joosung Min ◽

Nicola Mulberry ◽

Liangliang Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Level ◽

Time Frame ◽

Control Measures ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Time Period ◽

Reporting Process ◽

Long Time ◽

The Mean ◽

Time Frames ◽

The Impact

AbstractBackgroundMany countries have implemented population-wide interventions such as physical distancing measures, in efforts to control COVID-19. The extent and success of such measures has varied. Many jurisdictions with declines in reported COVID-19 cases are moving to relax measures, while others are continuing to intensify efforts to reduce transmission.AimWe aim to determine the time frame between a change in COVID-19 measures at the population level and the observable impact of such a change on cases.MethodsWe examine how long it takes for there to be a substantial difference between the cases that occur following a change in control measures and those that would have occurred at baseline. We then examine how long it takes to detect a difference, given delays and noise in reported cases. We use changes in population-level (e.g., distancing) control measures informed by data and estimates from British Columbia, Canada.ResultsWe find that the time frames are long: it takes three weeks or more before we might expect a substantial difference in cases given a change in population-level COVID-19 control, and it takes slightly longer to detect the impacts of the change. The time frames are shorter (11-15 days) for dramatic changes in control, and they are impacted by noise and delays in the testing and reporting process, with delays reaching up to 25-40 days.ConclusionThe time until a change in broad control measures has an observed impact is longer than is typically understood, and is longer than the mean incubation period (time between exposure than onset) and the often used 14 day time period. Policy makers and public health planners should consider this when assessing the impact of policy change, and efforts should be made to develop rapid, consistent real-time COVID-19 surveillance.

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Labour-use Efficiency of Assam Gramin Vikash Bank: Branch- and District-level Analysis

Studies in Microeconomics ◽

10.1177/23210222211024374 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 232102222110243

Author(s):

Mohuya Deb Purkayastha ◽

Joyeeta Deb ◽

Ram Pratap Sinha

Keyword(s):

Efficiency Score ◽

Significant Variable ◽

Data Envelopment ◽

Tobit Regression ◽

Second Stage ◽

Time Period ◽

Use Efficiency ◽

The Mean ◽

The Impact ◽

Observation Period

The present study estimated labour-use efficiency of 48 branches of Assam Gramin Vikash Bank at its branch level, covering three districts of Barak Valley, which falls under Silchar region of the bank for the time period from 2010–2011 to 2017–2018. The study applied data envelopment analysis for estimating labour-use efficiency. In the second stage, the study applied censored Tobit regression for determining the impact of several contextual variables on efficiency. The study reveals that the mean labour-use efficiency score of the selected branches is 76% when averaged for the in-sample branches over the observation period. Results of the Tobit regression identified cluster 2 and total business of the branches as the significant factors for determining efficiency and the number of employees as a significant variable influencing inefficiency. JEL Classifications: G2, G20, G21, J3

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Resilience and vulnerability of maternity services in Zimbabwe: a comparative analysis of the effect of Covid-19 and lockdown control measures on maternal and perinatal outcomes, a single-centre cross-sectional study at Mpilo Central Hospital

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth ◽

10.1186/s12884-021-03884-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Clare Shakespeare ◽

Handsome Dube ◽

Sikhangezile Moyo ◽

Solwayo Ngwenya

Keyword(s):

Perinatal Outcomes ◽

Control Measures ◽

Central Hospital ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Maternity Services ◽

Before And After ◽

The Mean ◽

Significant Change ◽

The Impact ◽

Mpilo Central Hospital

Abstract Background On the 27th of March 2020 the Zimbabwean government declared the Covid-19 pandemic a ‘national disaster’. Travel restrictions and emergency regulations have had significant impacts on maternity services, including resource stock-outs, and closure of antenatal clinics during the lockdown period. Estimates of the indirect impact of Covid-19 on maternal and perinatal mortality was expected it to be considerable, but little data was yet available. This study aimed to examine the impact of Covid-19 and lockdown control measures on non-Covid outcomes in a government tertiary level maternity unit in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, by comparing maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality before, and after the lockdown was implemented. Methods This was a retrospective, observational study, using a cross-sectional design to compare routine monthly maternal and perinatal statistics three months before and after Covid-19 emergency measures were implemented at Mpilo Central Hospital. Results Between January-March and April-June 2020, the mean monthly deliveries reduced from 747.3 (SD ± 61.3) in the first quarter of 2020 to 681.0 (SD ± 17.6) during lockdown, but this was not statistically significant, p = 0.20. The Caesarean section rates fell from a mean of 29.8% (SD ± 1.7) versus 28.0% (SD ± 1.7), which was also not statistically significant, p = 0.18. During lockdown, the percentage of women delivering at Mpilo Central Hospital who were booked at the hospital fell from a mean of 41.6% (SD ± 1.1) to 35.8% (SD ± 4.3) which was statistically significant, p = 0.03. There was no significant change, however, in maternal mortality or severe maternal morbidity (such as post-partum haemorrhage (PPH), uterine rupture, and severe preeclampsia/eclampsia), stillbirth rate or special care baby unit admission. There was an increase in the mean total number of early neonatal deaths (ENND) (mean 18.7 (SD ± 2.9) versus 24.0 (SD ± 4.6), but this was not statistically significant, p = 0.32. Conclusions Overall, maternity services at Mpilo showed resilience during the lockdown period, with no significant change in maternal and perinatal adverse outcomes, with the same number of man-hours worked before and during the lockdown Maternal and perinatal outcomes should continue to be monitored to assess the impact of Covid-19 and the lockdown measures as the pandemic in Zimbabwe unfolds. Further studies would be beneficial to explore women’s experiences and understand how bookings and deliveries at local clinics changed during this time.

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Comparison of the spatial patterns of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe at two points in time, spaced twenty-nine years apart: is climate variability of importance?

Geospatial health ◽

10.4081/gh.2017.505 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ulrik B. Pedersen ◽

Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules ◽

Nicholas Midzi ◽

Tkafira Mduluza ◽

Samson Mukaratirwa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Predictive Accuracy ◽

Weather Data ◽

Geostatistical Model ◽

Prevalence Data ◽

Time Period ◽

Long Time ◽

Potential Risk Factors ◽

The Impact

Temperature, precipitation and humidity are known to be important factors for the development of schistosome parasites as well as their intermediate snail hosts. Climate therefore plays an important role in determining the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis and it is expected that climate change will alter distribution and transmission patterns. Reliable predictions of distribution changes and likely transmission scenarios are key to efficient schistosomiasis intervention-planning. However, it is often difficult to assess the direction and magnitude of the impact on schistosomiasis induced by climate change, as well as the temporal transferability and predictive accuracy of the models, as prevalence data is often only available from one point in time. We evaluated potential climate-induced changes on the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe using prevalence data from two points in time, 29 years apart; to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating this over such a long time period. We applied historical weather data and matched prevalence data of two schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni). For each time period studied, a Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted to a range of climatic, environmental and other potential risk factors to identify significant predictors that could help us to obtain spatially explicit schistosomiasis risk estimates for Zimbabwe. The observed general downward trend in schistosomiasis prevalence for Zimbabwe from 1981 and the period preceding a survey and control campaign in 2010 parallels a shift towards a drier and warmer climate. However, a statistically significant relationship between climate change and the change in prevalence could not be established.

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Wording of Daily Diary Questions Matters: An Investigation of the Effect of Daily Diary Instructional Phrases on Respondents’ Recall Time frames (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.16105 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Arthur A. Stone ◽

Cheng K. Fred Wen ◽

Stefan Schneider ◽

Doerte U. Junghaenel

Keyword(s):

Medical Science ◽

Daily Diary ◽

Time Frame ◽

Affective States ◽

Diverse Range ◽

Daily Experience ◽

Time Periods ◽

Waking Up ◽

Time Frames ◽

The Impact

BACKGROUND Daily diaries are extensively used for examining participants' daily experience in behavioral and medical science. Whether participants recall their experiences within the time frames prescribed by task has received little attention. OBJECTIVE The objectives of this study are to describe survey respondents' self-reported recall timeframe and to evaluate the impact of different daily diary items on respondents reported affective states. METHODS In this study, 577 participants completed a mood survey with one of four time frame instructions: 1) today, 2) since waking up today, 3) during the last 24 hours, or 4) in the last day. They were also asked to indicate the time periods they considered when answering these items and to recall the instructional phrases associated with the items. RESULTS Almost all participants in the "Today" (97%) and "Since waking up today" (94%)" conditions reported using time periods consistent with our expectations, while a lower proportion was observed in the "during the last 24 hours" (69%) condition. A diverse range of responses was observed in the "In the last day" condition. Furthermore, the instructions influenced the levels of some self-reported affects, although exploratory analyses were not able to identify the mechanism underlying this finding. CONCLUSIONS Overall, these results indicate that "Today" and "Since waking up today" are the most effective instructional phrases for inquiring about daily experience and that investigators should use caution when using the other two instructional phrases.

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Microfracture: State of the Art in Cartilage Surgery?

Cartilage ◽

10.1177/1947603517700956 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 339-345 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Florian Frehner ◽

Jan P. Benthien

Keyword(s):

Clinical Trials ◽

Impact Factor ◽

Sports Medicine ◽

Time Frame ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Yearly Average ◽

The Mean ◽

Based Medicine ◽

Number Of Citations ◽

The Impact

Objective This study is a literature review from 2010 to 2014 concerning the quality of evidence in clinical trials about microfracture in attempt to repair articular cartilage. We have decided to focus on microfracturing, since this seems to be the best documented technique. Interest in evaluation of publication quality has risen in orthopaedic sports medicine recently. Therefore, we think it is necessary to evaluate recent clinical trials being rated for their evidence-based medicine (EBM) quality. We also compared the mean impact factor of the journals publishing the different studies as an indicator of the study’s citation and evaluated for a change over the studied time frame. Design To measure the EBM level, we applied the modified Coleman Methodology Score (CMS) introduced by Jakobsen. The impact factor, which is a measurement of the yearly average number of citations of articles recently published in that journal, was evaluated according to self-reported values on the corresponding journal’s website. Results We found that the mean CMS has not changed between 2010 and 2014. The mean impact factor has also not changed between 2010 and 2014. The CMS variance was high, pointing to different qualities in the evaluated studies. There is no evidence that microfracturing is superior compared to other cartilage repair procedures. Conclusion Microfracture cannot be seen as an evidence based procedure. Further research needs to be done and a standardization of the operating method is desirable. There need to be more substantial studies on microfracturing alone without additional therapies.

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Reporting time period matters: quantifying catch rates and exploring recall bias from fisher interviews in Thailand

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/cjfas-2017-0169 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 75 (12) ◽

pp. 2114-2122 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Lindsay Aylesworth ◽

Ting-Chun Kuo

Keyword(s):

Fisheries Management ◽

Data Sets ◽

Multiple Time ◽

Recall Bias ◽

External Data ◽

Time Period ◽

The Status ◽

The Mean ◽

Catch Rates ◽

Reported Data

Catch rates reported by fishers are commonly used to understand the status of a fishery, but the reliability of fisher-reported data is affected by how they recall such information. Recalling catch may be influenced by the choice of reporting time period. Using interview data from fishers in Thailand, we investigated (1) how the time period for which fishers report their catch rates (e.g., per day or month) correlates with annual catch estimates and (2) the potential of recall bias when fishers reported multiple catch rates. We found that the annual catch estimates of fishers who reported on a shorter time period (haul, day) were significantly higher than those reported on a longer time period (month, year). This trend held true when individual fishers reported over multiple time periods, suggesting recall bias. By comparing fisher reports with external data sets, we identified that the mean across all reports was most similar to other data sources, rather than any time period. Our research has strong implications in using fishers’ knowledge for fisheries management.

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The Impact of the Lisbon Football Derby on the Profile of Emergency Department Admissions

Acta Médica Portuguesa ◽

10.20344/amp.4980 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 27 (6) ◽

pp. 700 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

André Almeida ◽

Mónica Eusébio ◽

Jaime Almeida ◽

Matteo Boattini

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

Time Frame ◽

Subsequent Increase ◽

Manchester Triage System ◽

Sports Events ◽

Period Data ◽

Global Increase ◽

Time Frames ◽

The Impact ◽

Urgency Level

Background: Variations in emergency department admissions have been reported to happen as a result of major sports events. The work presented assessed changes in volume and urgency level of visits to a major Emergency Department in Lisbon during and after the city’s football derby. Material and Methods: Volume of attendances and patient urgency level, according to the Manchester Triage System, were retrospectively analyzed for the 2008-2011 period. Data regarding 24-hour periods starting 45 minutes before kick-off was collected, along with data from similar periods on the corresponding weekdays in the previous years, to be used as controls. Data samples were organized according to time frame (during and after the match), urgency level, and paired accordingly. Results: A total of 14 relevant periods (7 match and 7 non-match) were analyzed, corresponding to a total of 5861 admissions. During the match time frame, a 20.6% reduction (p = 0.06) in the total number of attendances was found when compared to non-match days. MTS urgency level sub-analysis only showed a statistically significant reduction (26.5%; p = 0.05) in less urgent admissions (triage levels green-blue). Compared to controls, post-match time frames showed a global increase in admissions (5.6%; p = 0.45), significant only when considering less urgent ones (18.9%; p = 0.05). Discussion: A decrease in the total number of emergency department attendances occurred during the matches, followed by a subsequent increase in the following hours. These variations only reached significance among visits triaged green-blue. Conclusion: During major sports events an overall decrease in emergency department admissions seems to take place, especially due to a drop in visits associated with less severe conditions. Keywords: Emergency Service, Hospital; Triage; Sports; Soccer; Portugal.

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Impact of Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction in Children Less Than 2 Years of Age Presenting for Medical Care With Diarrhea in Rural Matlab, Bangladesh

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciz133 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 69 (12) ◽

pp. 2059-2070 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Lauren M Schwartz ◽

K Zaman ◽

Md Yunus ◽

Ahasan-ul H Basunia ◽

Abu Syed Golam Faruque ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Controlled Trial ◽

Population Level ◽

Diarrhoeal Disease ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Service Area ◽

Rotavirus Vaccine ◽

Rotavirus Vaccines ◽

Time Period ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Following the conclusion of a human rotavirus vaccine (HRV) cluster-randomized, controlled trial (CRT) in Matlab, Bangladesh, HRV was included in Matlab’s routine immunization program. We describe the population-level impact of programmatic rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh in children <2 years of age. Methods Interrupted time series were used to estimate the impact of HRV introduction. We used diarrheal surveillance collected between 2000 and 2014 within the 2 service delivery areas (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh [icddr,b] service area [ISA] and government service area [GSA]) of the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System, administered by icddr,b. Age group–specific incidence rates were calculated for both rotavirus-positive (RV+) and rotavirus-negative (RV–) diarrhea diagnoses of any severity presenting to the hospital. We used 2 models to assess the impact within each service area: Model 1 used the pre-vaccine time period in all villages (HRV– and control-only) and Model 2 combined the pre-vaccine time period and the CRT time period, using outcomes from control-only villages. Results Both models demonstrated a downward trend in RV+ diarrheal incidences in the ISA villages during 3.5 years of routine HRV use, though only Model 2 was statistically significant. Significant impacts of HRV on RV+ diarrhea incidences in GSA villages were not observed in either model. Differences in population-level impacts between the 2 delivery areas may be due to the varied rotavirus vaccine coverage and presentation rates to the hospital. Conclusions This study provides initial evidence of the population-level impact of rotavirus vaccines in children <2 years of age in Matlab, Bangladesh. Further studies are needed of the rotavirus vaccine impact after the nationwide introduction in Bangladesh.

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The Role of Investment Banking in M&A Operations: Empiric Pre and Post Lehman Evidence

International Finance and Banking ◽

10.5296/ifb.v1i2.6638 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 51

Author(s):

Vincenzo Capizzi ◽

Renato Giovannini

Keyword(s):

Investment Banking ◽

Total Sample ◽

Time Frame ◽

Investment Banks ◽

Measuring System ◽

Lehman Brothers ◽

Time Frames ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

The role of investment banks in M&A operations is analyzed on the basis of empiric evidence. In particular, to point out the variations in the impact of the certification effect which can be ascribed to investment banks, the relationship between the value created for the shareholders in companies involved in special underwriting operations and the reputation of the banks appointed to act as advisors is examined. The analysis, which uses an original measuring system in order to assess and classify the reputation variable, focuses on transactions that have taken place between listed companies in two time frames, symmetrical to each other, specifically pre and post the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The total sample is composed of 229 transactions, divided into 161 and 68 observations, respectively pre and post Lehman. The result is that in the post Lehman period, unlike the preceding time frame, for which no significant empiric evidence is found, the wealth of the shareholders (of both targets and acquirers) is significantly influenced by the reputation of the investment banks which have acted as advisors. This indicates that, subsequent to the shock of the Lehman Brothers collapse, the certifying effect of the investment banks takes on an important role in the shareholders' choice.

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