scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Kon – Ha Thanh River Watershed, Vietnam

10.29007/1hrc ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngoc Duong Vo ◽  
Thanh Hao Nguyen ◽  
Huy Cong Vu ◽  
Philippe Gourbesville ◽  
Quang Binh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is a complex problem and becoming the leading challenge for humankind in the 21st century. It will affect almost aspects of human well-being. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on water resources and proposed solutions to respond to climate change is urgent and necessary. This study applied the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and GIS (Geographic Information System) technique to simulate water flows due to the impact of climate change. The models were applied for Kon – Ha Thanh river catchment, located in Vietnam where is considered as one of the countries most affected by climate change. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated well using daily flow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe and correlation coefficients are 0.77 and 0.88, respectively. Two scenarios from Vietnamese government (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used to analyze the variation of stream flow in three periods: 2016- 2035, 2045-2065, and 2080-2100. The results show that the flow in Kon – Ha Thanh rivers will vary complicatedly and severely under the impact of climate change. This flow may increase roughly 150.8% in flood season and reduce around 11.8% in dry season. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates that there are the changes in the flood dynamics as well as the hydrological shift of this region. This study presents an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would be useful in sustainable planning and devising resilience strategies.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Bouraoui ◽  
L. Galbiati ◽  
G. Bidoglio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

scholarly journals SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 557-562
Author(s):  
K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽  
S. A. Rahaman ◽  
S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽  
R. Jegankumar ◽  
P. Masilamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&amp;ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &amp;ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&amp;ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Availability Using SWAT Model in a Semi-Arid Basin: Case of El Kalb River, Lebanon

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Jad Saade ◽  
Maya Atieh ◽  
Sophia Ghanimeh ◽  
Golmar Golmohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Satisfactory Precision ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is crucial for depicting the vulnerability of water resources and for identifying proper adaptation measures. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the impact of climate change on the streamflow of El Kalb river, a major perennial river in Lebanon. The model performance was tested for monthly flow at two stations under a nine-year calibration period (2003–2011) and a four-year validation period (2012–2015). The model results indicated satisfactory precision in fitting observed and simulated flow using various acceptable statistical indices. Future projections of climate change were obtained for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The model indicated that the average annual discharge of El Kalb River in the near future (2021–2040) will decrease by around 28–29% under the three RCP scenarios. End-of-century projections (2081–2100) indicated that the flow will decrease by 23%, 28%, and 45% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ameer Muhammad ◽  
Grey R. Evenson ◽  
Fisaha Unduche ◽  
Tricia A. Stadnyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Prairie Pothole Region ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Prairie Pothole ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 3339-3384
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Sediment Yields ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou Basin located in Northern Laos. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through a delta change approach. As per the results, in general, temperature as well as precipitation show increasing trends in both scenarios, A2 and B2. However, monthly precipitation shows both increasing and decreasing trends. The simulation results exhibit that the wet and dry seasonal and annual stream discharges are likely to increase (by up to 15, 17 and 14% under scenario A2; and 11, 5 and 10% under scenario B2 respectively) in the future, which will lead to increased wet and dry seasonal and annual sediment yields (by up to 39, 28 and 36% under scenario A2; and 23, 12 and 22% under scenario B2 respectively). A higher discharge and more sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the changes, percentage-wise, are observed to be higher during the dry months. In conclusion, the sediment yield from the Nam Ou Basin is likely to increase with climate change, which strongly suggests the need for basin-wide sediment management strategies in order to reduce the negative impact of this change.

Promoting Peace Through Climate Change Adaptation

2019 ◽  
pp. 462-488
Author(s):  
Peni Hausia Havea
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Pacific Islands ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
Island Region ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has affected people's peace in the form of impact on livelihoods, health, and/or well-being. Most of these peace impacts, however, are felt significantly by people who are living in the low-lying communities in the Pacific, who are within and/or close to the Ring of Fire. This chapter is based on a study of peace and climate change adaptation that was conducted in the Pacific island region in 2016. It took place in five communities in Suva, Fiji: Vatuwaqa, Raiwaqa, Raiwai, Samabula, and Toorak. It highlights the impact of climate change on peace, and then it indicated how peace can be promoted in the form of climate change adaptation for these communities. Based on the results of this research, the author recommends that peace should be incorporated into the Pacific islands national adaptation plan.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

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