scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF LOSSES IN UKRAINE DUE TO UNEMPLOYMENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-38
Author(s):  
Liudmyla Chernetska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Income Loss ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Material Standard Of Living

One of the most important criteria, which makes it possible to evaluate the consequences and prospects of the country's development positively, is the dynamic growth of its economy, which is initiated, first of all, by increasing the efficiency of utilization in the national production of human resources. However, their productive implementation is affected by many socio-economic problems, including unemployment. In the economy, unemployment is a reflection of the state of the labor market, which characterizes the balance of supply and demand for jobs, in the social sphere it is one of the main factors for obtaining a stable income. Loss of work leads not only to a decrease in the current material standard of living, but also to the appearance of uncertainty in the future, as well as to the emergence of feelings of inferiority. Because people who want to work but do not have a job, they are not able to contribute to the increase of production of goods and services. The number of unemployed in the country is another indicator of its economic disadvantage. Therefore, unemployment is constantly the focus of government regulation of the economy and the labor market, and the instruments of regulation and its consequences are evolving with the development of socio-economic relations. The aim of the study. This research article is aimed at determining the macroeconomic losses caused by unemployment, taking into account age and gender. This gives a clearer picture of the magnitude of the likely benefit from properly formed and effectively implemented investment in programmatic measures to reduce unemployment as part of the formation of national economic growth strategies. Methodology. The analysis uses a multiplicative model of economic growth that describes the dependence of GDP growth on exogenous factors – the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation and the growth rate of those employed in the economy over the same period. The differences in this part are the use of more accurate data on labor costs: the number of employees is adjusted by gender and age coefficients of labor productivity. Results. The dynamics of the unemployment rate in Ukraine over the last years in terms of gender and age and duration of unemployment are analyzed on the basis of statistics. Based on the constructed production function, the estimation of the potential level of GDP output and the magnitude of its non-receipt in Ukraine due to excess of actual unemployment above its natural level for the period from 2010 to 2016 was made. The resulting production function model can also be applied to predict future GDP values based on the expected levels of fixed capital and the number of employees by age.

scholarly journals Estimating the Output GAP for Lebanon: A Production Function methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-83
Author(s):  
Latifa Ghalayini
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Potential Output Growth ◽  
Douglas Production Function

This paper estimates the output Gap for Lebanon to analyze the economic policy and to judge the stance of the economy. Therefore, a Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated for the period Q11998 to Q42015 and potential output calculated by substituting for potential levels of the factors in the estimated production function. The calculation of potential labor required the calculation of the NAIRU. This paper calculates therefore three types of NAIRU. The results of output gap calculations show that the Lebanese economy is working over its capacity and that it hits his limits. Furthermore, findings show that the labor market is characterized by high levels of NAIRU which restricted potential output growth. Therefore, any policy aiming to increase economic growth, while neglecting structural reforms will prove to be unsustainable.

scholarly journals Labor Market And New Dimensions Of Labor Relations: The Case Of Slovenia

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vlado Dimovski ◽  
Jana Ţnidaršič
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Social Situation ◽  
Critical Groups ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Labor Management

The economic and social situation at the beginning of the 21st century is bringing new challenges also to labor - management relations all over the world. During the transition period, Slovenia was facing hard times in striving to build completely new market-oriented economic society. Because of the significance of labor-management relations to the new economy and political system, labor-related matters received much attention from the Slovenian economic development policy. Within socialist economic system unemployment actually did not exist, as the system was very protective. Labor relations were administratively regulated and all shortcomings broke out on the eve before the socialism collapsed. Transformation depression was accompanied with decline in economic activity in general and inflation, which both had negative impact on standard of living and employment. The registered unemployment rate was rising up to 14.4 % in 1993. The most critical groups were those having no vocational education, older than 40 and those already being unemployed. The main reasons for employment stagnation and the persistent high registered unemployment rate could be found in economys restructure initiated by a transition into market economy (bankruptcies) and the loss of Yugoslav markets (orientation on a more demanding European markets). Many enterprises faced inevitable failure; many workers were dismissed or got a status of being redundant. The problem was moderated with new retirement legislation, which enabled the possibility of early retirement, which consequently lowered the share of elder people employed and contributed to very modest share of part-time employed people. In Slovenia labor costs (taxes and social contributions paid by employees and employers) are the highest in the new EU member states with the exception of Cyprus. If Slovenia wants to boost employment and economic growth, it will have to implement the new labor-relations law and create a more flexible labor market. Considering that competitive advantage and economic growth are often achieved by reducing labor costs (and lower social security of employees) the regulation of labor relations needs very subtle actions. In the paper, we present the development of labor relations in Slovenia through three periods: planned economy, transition and post-transition period, high-lightening the recent trends, the key labor market development problems, as well as bringing forward the key orientations and policies alleviating critical elements on this field.

scholarly journals IS THE REINHART-ROGOFF DEBT THRESHOLD APPLICABLE TO ITALY?

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-38
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
The Relationship

This paper employs an extended production function to examine the relationship between central government debt and economic growth in Italy. The results show that the threshold of the central government debt ratio for Italy is estimated to be 105.00%, which is greater than the 90% debt threshold proposed by Reinhart and Rogoff. Besides, a higher growth rate of labor employment or investment/GDP ratio would raise the growth rate. Hence, the debt threshold proposed by Reinhart-Rogoff underestimates the debt threshold for Italy. The finding suggests that the debt ratio of 131.09% in 2019 is well above the debt threshold and is likely to be unsustainable.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Short-Term High-Precision Combined Forecasting Algorithm Based on Grey Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Cao Li
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Production Function ◽  
High Precision ◽  
Function Method ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Hp Filter

Using the characteristics of grey forecasting, which requires a small amount of sample data and a simple modeling process, to predict the main macroeconomic indicators in the early stage, combined with the filtering decomposition method and the production function method, establishes a short-term high-precision combination forecasting algorithm for macroeconomics based on the grey model. The algorithm uses the improved HP filter method in the HP filter method to study whether the potential economic growth rate can be more accurately measured, and the production function method is used to calculate the potential economic growth rate. First, the two methods are used to calculate the potential economic growth rate. The accuracy of this method finally established a combined model based on the two models for short-term forecasting. Under the premise of considering economic factors, the input data is preprocessed, and the high-precision combined forecast is used to finally obtain the macroeconomic forecast results. The calculation examples in the paper show that the method is feasible and effective.

Growth Determinants of India in Post-economic Reform Period

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation

The economic reforms of the 90s had furnished two props liberalization and globalization, which later changed the growth strategies of the Indian economy. Contextually, the present study made an effort to comprehend the growth rate prevailed in the gross domestic product, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports via compound growth rate from 1990 to 2017. Further, the study also investigated how well the growth determinants were cointegrated in the post-1990 era. Therefore, a restricted vector autoregressive model was applied. The compound growth rate results articulated that the Indian economy enjoyed a high growth in exports and imports in the post-liberalized era. The findings of the VAR model state that gross fixed capital formation and Export’s had a positive and significant impact on India’s gross domestic product in the long run. On the contrary, imports had a negative and significant impact, implying that an increase in imports will lead to a decline in India’s gross domestic product, which is a well-observed fact in the economic domain. The study observed one-way causality from Gross Domestic Product and Exports. Additionally, a bi-directional causal relationship was observed among export and gross fixed capital formation. The policy perception that the study suggested that government should utilize gross fixed capital formation in those sectors which have preferably more social outreach and potential to strengthen the exports and at the same time also minimize country dependence on imports.

scholarly journals Relationship between Economic Growth and Employment in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 40-50
Author(s):  
Mạnh Phạm Hồng ◽  
Ngọc Nguyễn Văn ◽  
DAO HẠ THỊ THIỀU
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
The Relationship

The paper examines the relationship between employment and economic growth during the period 1991–2012 in Vietnam and obtains forecasts for employment from 2013 to 2020, using theories of production function for establishment of econometric models. The results show that the employment elasticities of economic growth are -0.49; 0.55 and 0.66 for agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors respectively and 1.71 for Vietnamese economy as a whole in the period. The results also indicate that an annual growth rate of 6% - 7% can help create from 55.322 to 56.243 million jobs by 2015 and from 61.739 – 64.519 million ones by 2020. Additionally, the research offers several important policy recommendations to promote economic growth and job creation in Vietnam in the next period.

Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.

Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.

Gender Gaps in the Labor Market and Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre-Richard Agenor ◽  
Kamer Karakurum Ozdemir ◽  
Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Gender Gaps

Amiya Kumar Bagchi. The Political Economy of Underdevelopment. London: Cambridge University Press. 1982. Reprint 1983. pp.viii+276. List of books for further reading; Index. Price: £ 8.50 (paperback edition).

1985 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-82
Author(s):  
Zia Ul Haq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Third World ◽  
Social Process ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Cambridge University ◽  
Working Classes ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Third World

Amiya Kumar Bagchi, an eminent economist of the modern Cambridge tradition, has produced a timely treatise, in a condensed form, on the development problems of the Third World countries. The author's general thesis is that economic development in the developing societies necessarily requires a radical transformation in the economic, social and political structures. As economic development is actually a social process, economic growth should not be narrowly defined as the growth of the stock of rich capitalists. Neither can their savings be equated to capital formation whose impact on income will presumably 'trickle down' to the working classes. Economic growth strategies must not aim at creating rich elites, because, according to the author, "maximizing the surplus in the hands of the rich in the Third World is not, however, necessarily a way of maximizing the rate of growth".

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