scholarly journals Why the Singularity Cannot Happen

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE MODIS
Keyword(s):  
Growth Pattern ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Western World ◽  
Car Accidents ◽  
Fitting Procedures ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
S Curve

The concept of a Singularity as described in Ray Kurzweil’s book cannot happen for a number of reasons. One reason is that all natural growth processes that follow exponential patterns eventually reveal themselves to be following S-curves thus excluding runaway situations. The remaining growth potential from Kurzweil’s “knee”, which could be approximated as the moment when an S-curve pattern begins deviating from the corresponding exponential, is a factor of only one order of magnitude greater than the growth already achieved. A second reason is that there is already evidence of a slowdown in some important trends. The growth pattern of the U.S. GDP is no longer exponential. Had Kurzweil been more rigorous in his fitting procedures, he would have recognized it. Moore’s law and the Microsoft Windows operating systems are both approaching end-of-life limits. The Internet rush has also ended — for the time being — as the number of users stopped growing; in the western world because of saturation and in the underdeveloped countries because infrastructures, education, and the standard of living there are not yet up to speed. A third reason is that society is capable of auto-regulating runaway trends as was the case with deadly car accidents, the AIDS threat, and rampant overpopulation. This control goes beyond government decisions and conscious intervention. Environmentalists who fought nuclear energy in the 1980s, may have been reacting only to nuclear energy’s excessive rate of growth, not nuclear energy per se, which is making a comeback now.What may happen instead of a Singularity is that the rate of change soon begins slowing down. The exponential pattern of change witnessed up to now dictates more milestone events during year 2025 than witnessed throughout the entire 20th century! But such events are already overdue today. If, on the other hand, the change growth pattern has indeed been following an S-curve, then the rate of change is about to enter a declining trajectory; the baby boom generation will have witnessed more change during their lives than anyone else before or after them.

Storm surges in the North Sea during the winter 1953-4

1956 ◽  
Vol 235 (1201) ◽  
pp. 260-274 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sea Ports ◽  
Phase Angles

Records of sea level for several North Sea ports for the winter of 1953-4 have been in vestigated. They were split into 14-day intervals, and each 14-day record was Fourieranalyzed to determine if any non-astronomical periods were present. There was evidence of some activity between 40 and 50 h period, and a determination of the phase angles at different ports showed that the activity could be due to a disturbance travelling southwards from the north of the North Sea. The disturbance was partly reflected somewhere near the line from Lowestoft to Flushing, so that one part returned past Flushing and Esbjerg towards Bergen while the other part travelled towards Dover, and there was evidence of its existence on the sea-current records taken near St Margaret's Bay. These results were confirmed by subtracting the predicted astronomical tidal levels from the observed values of sea level and cross-correlating the residuals so obtained for each port with those found at Lowestoft. The residuals at Lowestoft and Aberdeen were compared with the meteorological conditions, and it was found that, although they could be attributed to a large extent to conditions within the North Sea, there was an additional effect due to a travelling surge which was of the same order of magnitude at both Lowestoft and Aberdeen and which was closely related to the rate of change with time of the atmospheric pressure difference between Wick and Bergen.

From computers to ubiquitous computing by 2010: health care

2008 ◽  
Vol 366 (1881) ◽  
pp. 3805-3811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Aziz ◽  
Benny Lo ◽  
Julien Pansiot ◽  
Louis Atallah ◽  
Guang-Zhong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Wireless Sensor Network ◽  
Ubiquitous Computing ◽  
Sensor Network ◽  
Data Transfer ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
World Health ◽  
Wireless Sensor ◽  
Western World ◽  
Pervasive Technology

Over the past decade, miniaturization and cost reduction in semiconductors have led to computers smaller in size than a pinhead with powerful processing abilities that are affordable enough to be disposable. Similar advances in wireless communication, sensor design and energy storage have meant that the concept of a truly pervasive ‘wireless sensor network’, used to monitor environments and objects within them, has become a reality. The need for a wireless sensor network designed specifically for human body monitoring has led to the development of wireless ‘body sensor network’ (BSN) platforms composed of tiny integrated microsensors with on-board processing and wireless data transfer capability. The ubiquitous computing abilities of BSNs offer the prospect of continuous monitoring of human health in any environment, be it home, hospital, outdoors or the workplace. This pervasive technology comes at a time when Western world health care costs have sharply risen, reflected by increasing expenditure on health care as a proportion of gross domestic product over the last 20 years. Drivers of this rise include an ageing post ‘baby boom’ population, higher incidence of chronic disease and the need for earlier diagnosis. This paper outlines the role of pervasive health care technologies in providing more efficient health care.

Shoot morphology and growth pattern in seedlings of Pinusbrutia provenances

1988 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Calamassi ◽  
Mauro Falusi ◽  
Laura Mugnai
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Pattern ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Variable Number ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Academic Press ◽  
Shoot Morphology ◽  
Apical Bud ◽  
Total Growth

The process of primary growth in 2-year-old seedlings of six Pinusbrutia Ten. provenances is described. At the end of the first growing season, two types of shoot morphology were observed: type 1, a terminal winter bud, and type 2, a terminal rosette of primary needles protecting the meristematic apex. During the 2nd year the seedlings exhibited a succession of shoots (varying in number from one to five), each of which was due to the elongation of a new apical bud. Morphological observations along with an anatomical examination of the winter bud led to the conclusion that the growth pattern in juvenile P. brutia is monocyclic with a variable number of summer shoots (using the terminology proposed by Lanner (Lanner, R.M. 1976. In Tree physiology and yield improvement. Editedby M.G.R. Cannell and F.T. Last. Academic Press, London, pp. 223-243)). The provenances studied differed both in growth potential and in seasonal growth pattern (differences in number of shoots, ratio of spring shoot to total growth, growth rate). Two groups could be identified: (i) the provenances of the island of Crete, which had a low growth potential and short growing season, and (ii) the high-altitude provenances of inland Turkey, with high growth potential and a growth rate that peaked in summer.

scholarly journals In situ growth optimization in focused electron-beam induced deposition

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 919-926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul M Weirich ◽  
Marcel Winhold ◽  
Christian H Schwalb ◽  
Michael Huth
Keyword(s):  
Electron Beam ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
In Situ Growth ◽  
Growth Optimization ◽  
Evolutionary Genetic ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Electron Beam Induced Deposition ◽  
Deposition Processes ◽  
Fitness Parameter

We present the application of an evolutionary genetic algorithm for the in situ optimization of nanostructures that are prepared by focused electron-beam-induced deposition (FEBID). It allows us to tune the properties of the deposits towards the highest conductivity by using the time gradient of the measured in situ rate of change of conductance as the fitness parameter for the algorithm. The effectiveness of the procedure is presented for the precursor W(CO)6 as well as for post-treatment of Pt–C deposits, which were obtained by the dissociation of MeCpPt(Me)3. For W(CO)6-based structures an increase of conductivity by one order of magnitude can be achieved, whereas the effect for MeCpPt(Me)3 is largely suppressed. The presented technique can be applied to all beam-induced deposition processes and has great potential for a further optimization or tuning of parameters for nanostructures that are prepared by FEBID or related techniques.

Nuclear Activities and Modern Catastrophes: Art Faces the Radioactive Waves

Leonardo ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-132
Author(s):  
Gabrielle Decamous
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Modern Technology ◽  
Western World ◽  
Art And Science ◽  
Modernist Project

Nuclear-related artworks provide a favorable terrain for investigation of our contemporary epoch, for they relate to a science whose applications are highly political and that is spreading beyond the Western world. In times of global warming, indeed, the prospect of nuclear energy reappears as the latest sought-after modern technology. But after Hiroshima and Chernobyl, and given the dualistic civilian and military use of the atom, how do artists react to nuclear activities and their inherent politics? Can art provide an effective counterpractice to global nuclear politics? The author argues that art and science share the same project—the modernist project—and that art, like science, has to question its modern heritage.

scholarly journals New Wheels for Grandma

2003 ◽  
Vol 125 (04) ◽  
pp. 37-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayle Ehrenman
Keyword(s):  
Baby Boomers ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
General Motors ◽  
Older Americans ◽  
Baby Boom Generation ◽  
Concept Vehicle ◽  
Us Census ◽  
Automotive Interior

This article focuses on how engineers are adding enabling technologies that make cars easier and safer for an aging population to drive. By 2011, the baby boom generation will begin to turn 65, and by 2030, one in five people will be age 65 or older, according to US Census Bureau projections. A large percentage of the older Americans are expected to still be tooling down the highways. Ford Motor Co. of Dearborn, Michigan, Detroit-based General Motors, and automotive interior supplier Lear Corp. of Southfield, Michigan, have all undertaken studies to help them understand the needs and wants of older drivers in an effort to create vehicles that are ergonomically attuned to them. Ford has taken a different approach to defining the needs of the aging baby boomers. Like Lear, it conducted consumer research, but Ford also used a unique tool to help young engineers know what it feels like to be a 65-year-old trying to operate a car. The concept vehicle is using information gleaned from Lear’s Masters Study to determine the best colors, lighting levels, and rate of change in lighting for instruments and warning sensor displays.

scholarly journals A New Seven-Segment Profile Algorithm for an Open Source Architecture in a Hybrid Electronic Platform

Electronics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 652 ◽  
Author(s):  
José R. García-Martínez ◽  
Juvenal Rodríguez-Reséndiz ◽  
Edson E. Cruz-Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Velocity Profile ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Open Architecture ◽  
Raspberry Pi ◽  
Field Programmable ◽  
Acceleration And Deceleration ◽  
S Curve

The velocity profiles are used in the design of trajectories in motion control systems. It is necessary to design smoother movements to avoid high stress in the motor. In this paper, the rate of change in acceleration value is used to develop an S-curve velocity profile which presents an acceleration and deceleration stage smoother than the trapezoidal velocity profile reducing the error at the end of the duty-cycle pre-established in one degree of freedom (DoF) application. Furthermore, a new methodology is developed to generate a seven-segment profile that works with negative velocity and displacement constraints applying an open source architecture in a hybrid electronic platform compounded by a system on a chip (SoC) Raspberry Pi 3 and a field programmable gate array (FPGA). The performance of the motion controller is measured through the comparison of the error obtained in real-time application with a trapezoidal velocity profile. As a result, a low-cost platform and an open architecture system are achieved.

Plasma membrane H(+)-HCO3- transport in rat hepatocytes: a principal role for Na(+)-coupled HCO3- transport

1991 ◽  
Vol 261 (5) ◽  
pp. G803-G809 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. G. Fitz ◽  
S. D. Lidofsky ◽  
M. H. Xie ◽  
M. Cochran ◽  
B. F. Scharschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Plasma Membrane ◽  
Membrane Potential ◽  
Primary Culture ◽  
Basolateral Membrane ◽  
Rat Hepatocytes ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Transport Capacity ◽  
Principal Role ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Membrane Potential Difference

Na(+)-coupled HCO3- transport has been demonstrated in the basolateral membrane of hepatocytes, but there is uncertainty regarding its stoichiometry or capacity compared with other mechanisms of H(+)-HCO3- transport. After preincubation in medium free of Na+, either in the presence or absence of HCO3(-)-CO2, rat hepatocytes in primary culture were reexposed to Na+ or HCO3(-)-CO2 alone or in combination. Transporter electrogenicity was assessed by measuring membrane potential difference (PD), and the relative capacities of Na(+)-coupled HCO3- transport, Cl(-)-HCO3- exchange, and Na(+)-H+ exchange were assessed by measuring the magnitude and rate of change of intracellular pH (pHi) using BCECF. In the absence of Na+, exposure to HCO3- alone had no consistent effect on PD or pHi. In the absence of HCO3-, reexposure to Na+ depolarized cells by 3 +/- 1 mV and caused an amiloride-inhibitable increase in pHi of 0.031 +/- 0.02 units/min. In the presence of HCO3-, reexposure to Na+ hyperpolarized cells by -14 +/- 5 mV and increased pHi at a rate of 0.133 +/- 0.11 units/min; both the hyperpolarization and alkalinization were inhibited by SITS but unaffected by amiloride. These changes in PD indicate that Na(+)-coupled HCO3- transport is electrogenic, consistent with coupling of more than one HCO3- to each Na+. Furthermore, SITS-inhibitable Na(+)-dependent alkalinization exceeds amiloride-inhibitable Na(+)-dependent alkalinization by an order of magnitude, suggesting that the transport capacity of Na(+)-coupled HCO3- transport exceeds that of Na(+)-H+ exchange.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) Growth Potential Predicted from Cisco (Coregonus artedii) Population Structure and Conductivity

1989 ◽  
Vol 46 (9) ◽  
pp. 1531-1538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward A. Trippel ◽  
F. William H. Beamish
Keyword(s):  
Lake Trout ◽  
Fork Length ◽  
Growth Efficiency ◽  
Salvelinus Namaycush ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Stepwise Multiple Regression ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Mean Size ◽  
Coregonus Artedii

Trophic dynamics between lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and cisco (Coregonus artedii) were examined in a set of 10 northwestern Ontario lakes that ranged in conductivity by nearly an order of magnitude. Diets revealed the possibility of interspecific competition for invertebrate prey prior to initiation of piscivory by lake trout at approximately 200 mm fork length (FL). Von Bertalanffy growth equations (based on otolith ages) were used to estimate time to attain this length (1.4–3.0 yr). Contrary to anticipated results, lake trout reached this size more rapidly in lakes with high cisco abundance. Presumably, this relationship was caused by improved food conditions for young trout in some of the more productive waterbodies. However, after removing the collinearity between lake conductivity and nonpiscivorous growth by regression analysis, there was no relationship between the time for lake trout to reach 200 mm and cisco abundance. Piscivorous growth varied (L∞ = 508 to 740 mm) extensively among the 10 populations and was likely a function of growth efficiency from different food sources. Using stepwise multiple regression, 81% of the L∞ variation among lakes was explained by cisco abundance and mean size. Linear regression between L∞ and mean size of trout (but not trout abundance) on conductivity generated significant positive relationships.

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