scholarly journals Getting to the source of the illusion of consensus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saoirse Connor Desai ◽  
Brett Hayes ◽  
Belinda Xie
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Epistemic Value ◽  
Epistemic Warrant ◽  
False Consensus

Consensus between informants is a valuable cue to a claim’s epistemic value, when informants’ beliefs are developed independently of each other. Recent work (Yousif et al., 2019) described an illusion of consensus such that people did not generally discriminate between the epistemic warrant of true consensus, where a majority claim is supported by multiple independent sources, and false consensus arising from repeated claims from the same source. Three experiments tested a novel account of the illusion of consensus; that it arises when people are unsure about the independence of the primary sources on which informant claims are based. When this independence relationship was ambiguous we foundevidence for the illusion. However, when steps were taken to highlight the independence between data sources in the true consensus conditions, and confidence in a claim was measured against a no consensus baseline (where there was an equal number of reports supporting and opposing a claim), we eliminated the illusion of consensus. Under these conditions, more weight was given to claims based on true consensus than false consensus. These findings show that although the illusion of consensus is prevalent, people do have the capacity to distinguish between true and false consensus.

scholarly journals Pengelolaan Retribusi Sektor Pariwisata dalam Meningkatkan Pendapatan Asli Daerah di Kabupaten Katingan

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-16
Author(s):  
Noor Hidayat ◽  
A'raf Musthafa Rusnain
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Approach Method

The purpose of this study was to find out how much management of retribution in the tourism sector as a supporting effort in increasing Regional Original Revenue in Katingan Regency. This study uses qualitative research. Data sources consist of primary sources (Head of Service, Secretary, Head of Division, Head of Section, Employees, and Community). Techniques for collecting data by observation, interviews, and documentation. The research results of the Katingan Regency Youth and Sports Agency are expected to be able to use as a reference in overcoming existing constraints so that PAD originating from regional retribution can increase. The approach method used in this study is a sociological juridical approach method, because it involves problems that are normatively regulated in legislation and also there are links with sociological variables, namely regarding that: The results of the study can be shown that the District Regulation No. 6 of 2009 that generally in accordance with Law No. 28 of 2009 concerning Regional Taxes and Regional Levies.

The Illusion of Consensus: A Failure to Distinguish Between True and False Consensus

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 1195-1204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami R. Yousif ◽  
Rosie Aboody ◽  
Frank C. Keil
Keyword(s):  
Primary Source ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Surface Level ◽  
False Consensus ◽  
Powerful Means ◽  
Different Sources

When evaluating information, we cannot always rely on what has been presented as truth: Different sources might disagree with each other, and sometimes there may be no underlying truth. Accordingly, we must use other cues to evaluate information—perhaps the most salient of which is consensus. But what counts as consensus? Do we attend only to surface-level indications of consensus, or do we also probe deeper and consider why sources agree? Four experiments demonstrated that individuals evaluate consensus only superficially: Participants were equally confident in conclusions drawn from a true consensus (derived from independent primary sources) and a false consensus (derived from only one primary source). This phenomenon was robust, occurring even immediately after participants explicitly stated that a true consensus was more believable than a false consensus. This illusion of consensus reveals a powerful means by which misinformation may spread.

scholarly journals PENERAPAN MODEL TUTORIAL UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KEMAMPUAN SISWA DALAM MENULIS SURAT DINAS

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Agi Ahmad Ginanjar
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Student Learning Outcomes ◽  
Class Action ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Class Viii ◽  
Students Attitudes

ABSTRAK: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui berhasil tidaknya� model pembelajaran tutorial meningkatkan kemampuan pada siswa kelas VIII SMP Negeri 1 Puspahiang. Metode Penelitian ini adalah metode tidakan kelas. Sedangkan teknik penelitiannya adalah (1) teknik wawancara, (2) teknik observasi, (3) teknik tes. Sumber data penelitian ini ada dua yaitu sumber primer dan sumber sekunder. Sumber data primer adalah siswa kelas VIII A SMP Negeri 1 Puspahiang.. Sedangkan sumber data sekunder adalah guru, dokumen kelas, dan kepala sekolah. Hasil observasi dan analisi data menunjukkan bahwa kemampaun siswa kelas VIII A SMPN 1 Pusphiang dari siklus I ke siklus II mengalami peningkatan. Hal ini dapat diketahui dari hasil oleh data bahwa rata-rata pelaksanaan pembelajaran tutrial siklus I hanya 75% sementara siklus II 95,8%. Selain itu, sikap siswa ketika mengikuti pembelajaran dari siklus I ke siklus II mengalami peningkatan. Peningkatan tersebuut ditunjukkan bawah pada siklus I hanya satu kategori yang sangat baik yanitu kerja sama, sedangkan keaktifan, keseungguhan, dan pasrtipasi kategorinya baik. Pada siklus II semua aspek yang diamati baik kerja sama, keaktifan, kesungguhan, dan partispasi semuanya berkategori sangat baik. Nilai hasil belajar siswa dalam menulis surat dinas juga mengamali peningkatan dari siklus I ke siklus II. Pada siklus I sebanyak 12 siswa kategori sangat baik, dan 11 siswa kategori baik, dan 8 orang kategiri cukup. Pada siklus II meimgkat menjadi 24 sisa kategori sangat baik dan 7 siswa dengan kategori baik. Dengan demikian hipotesis dalam penelitian ini diterima. Artinya, model� tutorial meningkatkan hasil pembelajaran menulis surat dinas pada siswa kelas VIII A SMP Negeri 1 Puspahiang.KATA KUNCI: Menulis; Surat dinas; Tutorial. �THE IMPLEMENTATION OF TUTORIAL METHOD TO IMPROVE STUDENT'S ABILITYIN WRITING FORMAL LETTER�ABSTRACT: This study aims to determine the success or failure of the tutorial learning model in improving the abilities of grade VIII students of SMP Negeri 1 Puspahiang. This research method is a class action method. While the research techniques are (1) interview techniques, (2) observation techniques, (3) test techniques. There are two sources of data in this study, namely primary sources and secondary sources. Primary data sources were students of class VIII A SMP Negeri 1 Puspahiang. Meanwhile, secondary data sources were teachers, class documents, and school principals. The results of observation and data analysis showed that the ability of class VIII A students of SMPN 1 Pusphiang from cycle I to cycle II had increased. It can be seen from the results by the data that the average implementation of tutrial learning in cycle I is only 75% while cycle II is 95.8%. In addition, students' attitudes when participating in learning from cycle I to cycle II have increased. This improvement is shown below in cycle I, there is only one very good category, namely cooperation, while activeness, sincerity, and participation are good categories. In cycle II, all aspects observed, both cooperation, activeness, seriousness, and participation, were all in very good categories. The value of student learning outcomes in writing official letters also increased from cycle I to cycle II. In the first cycle there were 12 students in very good category, and 11 students in good category, and 8 students in enough category. In the second cycle it increased to 24 remaining in very good categories and 7 students with good categories. Thus the hypothesis in this study is accepted. That is, the tutorial model improves the learning outcomes of writing official letters for class VIII A students of SMP Negeri 1 Puspahiang.KEY WORDS: Write; Official letter; Tutorial

scholarly journals Analisis Model Pembelajaran Kooperatif Tipe STAD Dengan Media Pembelajaran Ular Tangga Terhadap Minat Belajar

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-49
Author(s):  
Pipit Putri Hariani MD ◽  
◽  
Agus Wiranda ◽  
Ijah Mulyani Sihotang ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cooperative Learning ◽  
Student Learning ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Student Learning Outcomes ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Educational Game ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Student Interest

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of snake and ladder learning media using the STAD type cooperative learning model in increasing interest in learning. This study uses primary data sources in the form of reference studies that are used as the main source of research references, the primary sources used are journals related to the research title, namely the Snakes and Ladders learning media journal model using the STAD Type Cooperative Learning Model in increasing interest in learning and other related references. Based on the results of the study that the author conducted on 10 previous research journals, it was found that the use of the snake and ladder educational game tool through the STAD type learning model can make students more active so as to increase interest and learning achievement. The conclusion from the research is that the activeness of students during learning shows a very active category. Of the 10 research journals studied that student learning outcomes were significantly different between before and before treatment. Based on the results of the validity of data from several previous studies regarding the use of snakes and ladders media through the STAD type learning model can increase student interest and learning outcomes by 90%.

scholarly journals Mengikis Arogansi Berdakwah Melalui Pendekatan Manajemen Perencanaan Islami

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
Fathul Aminudin Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Comprehensive Understanding ◽  
The Public ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Information Alignment

Da'i competence is demanded to be ready in everything. The da’i has an obligation to translate Islamic materials to the congregation properly. Recently, the tendency of a da’i to deliver da’wa material tends to be divided. Some offer peace, comfort, tranquility (rohmatal lil ‘alamien). But some others offer hatred, violence, fear, worry and so on. This kind of da'wa model indicates a serious problem with the da’i, namely "Arrogance in Da'wa". This research is a qualitative research using literature approach. Data sources consist of primary sources, namely Surat Al-Hasr: 18. While secondary sources are documents / literature, notes or other studies related to the research object. The results of the study stated that based on the analysis of Surat Al-Hasr Verse 18 that a da’i minimizes arrogance by understanding the contents of this Surat Al-Hasr 18. Da'i criteria contained in the content of the verse are sincere intentions, optimal endeavors, resignation and sincerity. These four things must be perfected through attitudes of technology and information alignment. A da’i is not only great in science but also adaptive to development. Accompanied by a comprehensive understanding of da’wa both personal da'i, da'i knowledge and an adaptive attitude based on the understanding of Islamic da’wa management, the objectives of da’wa will be achieved. Arrogance can be suppressed to a minimum and material will be more effectively accepted by the public.   Kompetensi da’i dituntut untuk selalu siap dalam segala hal. Da’i memiliki kewajiban untuk menerjemahkan materi-materi keIslaman kepada jama’ah dengan baik dan benar. Kecenderungan seorang da’i dalam menyampaikan materi dakwahnya saat ini cenderung terbelah. Sebagian menawarkan kedamaian, kenyamanan, kesentosaan (rohmatal lil alamien). Namun sebagian yang lain menawarkan kebencian, keberingasan, katakutan dan kehawatiran dan-lain-lain. Model dakwah semacam ini mengindikasikan adanya persolan serius pada diri da’i yaitu “Arogansi dalam berdakwah”. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan Pustaka. Sumber data terdiri dari sumber primer yaitu Surat Al-Hasr Ayat 18. Sedangkan Sumber sekunder adalah dokumen/pustaka, catatan atau peneiltian lain yang terkait dengan objek penelitian. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan analisis Surat Al-Hasr Ayat 18 bahwa seorang da’i meminimalisasi arogansi dengan memahami kandungan Surat Al-Hasr 18 ini. criteria da’i yang ada dalam kandungan ayat tersebut adalah niat yang tulus, usaha yang optimal, tawakal dan ikhlas. keempat hal tersebut harus disempurnakan melalui sikap penyelarasan teknologi dan informasi. Seorang da’i tidak hanya kuat keilmuannya, namun juga adaptif dengan perkembangan. Dengan dibarengi pemahaman da’i yang komprehensif baik personal da’i, keilmuan da’i dan sikap adaptif da’i yang berdasarkan pada pemahaman manajemen dakwah yang Islami maka tujuan dakwah akan tercapai. Arogansi bisa di tekan seminimal mungkin dan materi dakwah akan semakin efektif diterima masyarakat.

Measuring Political Democracy

2005 ◽  
Vol 38 (8) ◽  
pp. 939-970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirk Bowman ◽  
Fabrice Lehoucq ◽  
James Mahoney
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Central American ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Political Democracy ◽  
Index Construction ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cross National

Recent writings concerning measurement of political democracy offer sophisticated discussions of problems of conceptualization, operationalization, and aggregation. Yet they have less to say about the error that derives from the use of inaccurate, partial, or misleading data sources. Drawing on evidence from five Central American countries, the authors show this data-induced measurement error compromises the validity of the principal, long-term cross-national scales of democracy. They call for an approach to index construction that relies on case expertise and use of a wide range of data sources, and they employ this approach in developing an index of political democracy for the Central American countries during the 20th century. The authors’ index draws on a comprehensive set of secondary and primary sources as it rigorously pursues standards of conceptualization, operationalization, and aggregation. The index’s value is illustrated by showing how it suggests new lines of research in the field of Central American politics.

scholarly journals Women Migrant Workers in Fiqh Perspectives

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
L. Lutfiyah ◽  
Nurdien Harry Kistanto ◽  
Muhammad Akmaluddin
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Migrant Worker ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Library Research

<p><span>The purpose of this study is to find information about the law of a wife to be a migrant worker from the perspective of fiqh. This study is qualitative research using library research and uses the fiqh approach. Data sources come from primary and secondary sources. The primary source functions as the main source, obtained by tracing the book of jurisprudence by analyzing the content (content analysis). Secondary sources function to support primary sources obtained through books, journals, and other important documents. The result is that the husband must rethink to permit wives who want to become migrant workers. Changes in Islamic law against migrant workers can occur if they meet the requirements including time, place, intention, and custom. The proof of <em>sadd al-dhari'ah</em> serves to inhibit the rate of sending women migrant workers.</span></p>

scholarly journals International competitive analysis of wine producer small and midsize companies on enterprise resource management

2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zs. Sümegi ◽  
A. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Present Situation ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Wine Grape ◽  
Total Size ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Grape Wine ◽  
Economical Growth

In our research using primary data sources we are searching for satisfactory evidences, that the impressive economical growth of China has a strong impact on Chinese grape and wine production, wine market. However grape cultivation has long tradition in China, modem grape wine and wine production has only started 20 years ago. During my research I have collected the very rare and unreliable information on this theme to make a picture of Chinese grape and wine production. Using primary sources describe the present situation of Chinese grape industry, verify the supposition that the rise of Chinese grape crop land includes the growth of the total size of wine grape plantations. After this verification I make a comparative analysis of Chinese and Hungarian grape cultivation costs, to confirm, that grape and wine producing is a more requital activity in China than in Hungary.

scholarly journals Bahasa Slang Generasi Milenial sebagai Produk Kreativitas Linguistik pada Media Sosial Instagram

2021 ◽  
pp. 15-28
Author(s):  
Aldila Rahmita Putri ◽  
Ristu Wahyu Stiawan ◽  
Dian Risdiawati
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Millennial Generation ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Descriptive Data ◽  
Data Presentation ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Secondary Data Sources

The millennial generation is a generation that is always side by side with technology. The existence of the millennial generation in social media has given birth to creative linguistic products in the form of slang. This study aims to describe (1) the use of slang on Instagram social media, (2) the development of slang language on Instagram social media, (3) the form of millennial generation creative linguistic products on Instagram social media. The research method used is descriptive qualitative. The data sources used are primary sources in the form of posts and comments from the millennial generation on Instagram social media and secondary data sources in the form of supporting literature. The data collection uses documentation techniques. This study uses descriptive data analysis techniques through four stages of analysis, namely data reduction, data presentation, conclusion drawing, and data verification. The results of this study indicate that slang is often used by the millennial generation in communicating on their social media. Slang has also continued to develop since the 1980's until now. Creative linguistic forms of millennial generation slang include normal words, reduction words, guardian words, abbreviations, and acronyms.

scholarly journals A note on the relationship between Scandinavian and Low German

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-210
Author(s):  
Ivar Berg
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Recent Work ◽  
Middle Ages ◽  
Language Contact ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Contact Period ◽  
Dialect Contact ◽  
Low German ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractRecent work on language contact between Scandinavian and Low German during the Middle Ages widely assumes that the varieties were linguistically close enough to permit some kind of receptive multilingualism, and hence an example of dialect contact. Two arguments that have been invoked in support of this scenario are the lack of (1) meta-linguistic comments on flawed understanding, and (2) attested bilingualism. However, towards the end of the most intense contact period, in the early sixteenth century, there is indeed meta-linguistic information in the preserved sources suggesting that intelligibility was restricted. Furthermore, there are also examples of code-switching and active bilingualism indicating that the varieties were clearly perceived as distinct languages. This paper presents such examples from Norwegian primary sources that have not been observed in recent scholarship. Based on this evidence, it is argued that the relationship between the languages by the early sixteenth century was asymmetric, Scandinavians being able to understand Low German more often than vice versa.

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