Use of “Map-Schemes” of Connections of Economic Processes as One of the Options to Improve State Forecasting

Annotation. Introduction. Current trends of the rational use of financial resources also provoke the modernization of approaches and methods for state forecasting. The imperfection of the existing methods causes the significant differences between the planned data and the realities of life. Therefore, the improvement of existing methodological approaches is the key to more efficient use of state financial resources. Purpose. One of the elements of improving the methodological apparatus of state forecasting is to take into account the links and their strength between some economic processes, such as: the dynamics of state budget revenues and some macroeconomic indicators of the country. An appropriate “map-scheme” of existing stable and moderate links between them, developed on the basis of the analysis of the calculated data, may become a basis for the development of propositions for the improvement of existing methods of state forecasting. Results. The strength of the links between some economic processes of the state, namely: the dynamics of state budget revenues (the constituents of which, according to the legislation of Ukraine, include the following elements: tax revenues, non-tax revenues, official transfers from foreign governments, revenues from operations with capital, trust funds and official transfers from local budgets), as well as the following macroeconomic indicators: gross domestic product, inflation rate and gross external debt have been studied. The use of one-factor dependence equations made it possible to determine the degree of strength of connections (absent, moderate, stable connection) between the studied relations, as well as to calculate the dependence equations. The results can be used to improve the methodological and forecasting state apparatus. Conclusions. The “map-scheme”, developed on the basis of estimating the one-factor dependence equations, clearly provides an opportunity to explore the dynamics of modern stable and moderate relationships between the constituents of state budget revenues and macroeconomic indicators of the state. Accordingly, when submitting proposals for improving methodological approaches in the field of state forecasting, it is advisable to pay special attention to the impact of gross external debt and official transfers from foreign governments on gross domestic product, as well as the impact of tax and non-tax revenues, the changing dynamics of which may significantly change its volume. Keywords: state forecasting; macroeconomic indicators; state budget revenues; “map-scheme”; economic process.

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State Administration of Retirement Age in the terms of Budget Crisis

Upravlenie ◽

10.12737/21299 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 80-87

Author(s):

Соловьев ◽

A. Solovev

Keyword(s):

Pension System ◽

Demographic Factors ◽

The State ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Retirement Age ◽

Pension Policy ◽

State Budget ◽

Methodological Approaches ◽

State Pension ◽

The Impact

The aim of the study is to analyze the effect of age on the appointment of the state pension fiscal system in our country. The problem of rising of the retirement age in Russia is given a value that is far away from the traditional context of direct influence of demographic processes on the level of pensions, on the one hand, and adaptation of the pension system to changing demographic factors, on the other. In the article the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model that corrects the degree of dependence on the mutually complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors in the different historical periods. This requires a fundamental change in the methodological approaches to the problem of rising the retirement age by using actuarial methods of forecasting. Actuarial analysis of the problem of retirement age in the work shows that the perception of the linear dependence of the age of the destination state of the demographic parameters cannot be considered as a tool for regulating the efficiency of the pension system. The results of the study are the specific parameters of actuarial assessments of the impact of demographic and macroeconomic conditions to increase the retirement age in Russia, conducted using data from the state statistics, formulated practical proposals to mitigate negative economic consequences. Conclusion: Rising the retirement age should be aimed at economic stimulation of formation of the pension rights of the insured in the long term, rather than the economy of the state budget. Methodological approaches, grounded in the work, and quantitative results of the actuarial calculations will be used in the formation of public pension policy in the preparation of the regulations to rise the retirement age, the pension formula of calculating the pension rights of insured persons, the mechanism of pension indexation.

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PROBLEMS OF TAX RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

WORLD OF FINANCE ◽

10.35774/sf2021.01.188 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 188-200

Author(s):

Anton SHEVCHUK

Keyword(s):

Economic Crisis ◽

Business Owners ◽

The State ◽

Business Climate ◽

State Budget ◽

Political Factors ◽

Tax Revenues ◽

The Face ◽

Tax Benefits ◽

The Impact

Introduction. The theoretical bases of tax risks are considered and the author's approach to interpretation of their essence is offered. The directions of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on tax revenues to the State Budget of Ukraine have been studied and the factors of intensification of tax risks have been determined. On this basis, scientifically sound recommendations for improving the management of tax risks in Ukraine in the economic crisis. The purpose of the article is to study the areas of intensification of tax risks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and the development of scientifically sound proposals for improving the management of tax risks in the face of new challenges for fiscal authorities. Results. The main directions of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tax revenues to the State Budget of Ukraine are assessed. It is proved that the manifestations of the economic crisis are the main factors of intensification of tax risks in Ukraine, which are expressed in significant losses of budget revenues. Ways to optimize the mechanism of VAT refunds and directions of audit of tax benefits in order to minimize tax risks are proposed. The mechanisms of obligatory fiscalization of micro and small business settlements through the introduction of registrars of settlement operations on favorable terms for business owners without the need to hire additional employees are outlined. Possibilities of realization of the project of electronic customs as one of elements of creation of a positive business climate and minimization of tax risks are considered. Perspectives. Promising areas of research may be the study of psychological, administrative, technological, political factors of tax risks in Ukraine.

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Tax regulation of socio-economic development

University Economic Bulletin ◽

10.31470/2306-546x-2020-47-147-155 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 147-155

Author(s):

Valeriy Koroviy

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Tax Policy ◽

The State ◽

Regulation Mechanism ◽

State Budget ◽

Tax Revenues ◽

The Social ◽

Socio Economic Development ◽

The Impact ◽

Tax Regulation

Relevance of research topic. Tax regulation is a key factor in ensuring economic development and social stability through a balance of fiscal and stimulus functions. The sources of accumulation of funds of financial resources are the taxes in various forms, which is provided by the fiscal function. The priority is represented by the formation of strategic goals of tax policy to achieve the goals of public financial management. It is necessary, under the current conditions, to improve the structure of tax revenues of the budget. Formulation of the problem. Further development of provisions for the development of a tax regulation mechanism will provide an opportunity to increase the degree of adaptability of the impact of taxation on the socio-economic environment. Important priorities in the activities of fiscal authorities are to improve the quality of the mechanism of tax administration, improving the model of the state tax risk-management. Analysis of recent research and publications. The development of the mechanism of tax regulation was considered by foreign scholars, in particular, A. J. Auerbach, R. M. Byrd, E. M. Zolt, J. Mehon, A. Laffer, J. Friedman, V. Tanzi. Their work reflects the importance of tax regulation to ensure progressive socio-economic development over the past decades. L. Lysyak, A. Mazaraki, M. Kuzhelev, A. Nikitishin, V. Makogon, L. Sidelnikova, I. Chugunov and other Ukrainian scientists have developed a concept for implementing of the tax policy in Ukraine in the context of economic system transformation. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. The mechanism of the tax regulation of socio-economic development needs further research. An important task of the state is to increase the effectiveness of fiscal incentives. The aim of the article is to improve the mechanism of formation and implementation of the mechanism of tax regulation of socio-economic development of the country in terms of structural changes in the financial system. Research methodology. The system approach and the method of comparative analysis, synthesis, logical approach and method of scientific abstraction are used. Techniques of statistical analysis were used in the study of the peculiarities of tax revenues and fees to the State Budget of Ukraine. Results of work. An analysis of the impact of the tax revenues on the dynamics of economic development for the period 2011-2019 was performed. The dynamics and the specific weight of the overpayment of the taxes and fees to the State Budget of Ukraine are studied. The directions of improvement of the system of tax administration are offered. Suggestions for improving the tax regulation mechanism are substantiated. Conclusions. Tax regulation is a very effective lever of influence on the dynamics of economic development and the social stability. At the center of the institutional mechanisms of its implementation is a set of redistributive relations regarding the social product. The development of the provisions for forecasting and planning of the tax policy measures in the context of globalization will provide an opportunity to increase the adaptability of the impact of tax regulation on economic development. In order to improve tax regulation in the formation of budget revenues, it is advisable to improve the quality of forecasting macroeconomic indicators of the country's development and planning of the tax revenues, and to increase the effectiveness of mechanisms for collecting and preventing the growth of tax debt. It is quite important and relevant to ensure a balanced tax policy, which should be based on a systematic approach to the interaction of the components of tax relations, taking into account the principles of fiscal sufficiency, neutrality, stability and cost-effectiveness of taxation.

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THE IMPACT OF FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

CBU International Conference Proceedings ◽

10.12955/cbup.v5.933 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 242-246 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jozef KubĂˇs ◽

Zuzana Ĺ tofkovĂˇ ◽

JĂˇn MiĹˇĂk

Keyword(s):

Public Administration ◽

Fiscal Decentralization ◽

Slovak Republic ◽

The State ◽

State Budget ◽

Tax Revenues ◽

Effective Instrument ◽

The Government ◽

The Individual ◽

The Impact

The allocating revenue to the individual budgets of self-governments in the Slovak Republic is a highly sophisticated process. Redistribution of resources using fiscal decentralization is an effective instrument through which the government attempts to eliminate subsidizing of municipalities and self-governing regions from the state budget and thus achieve higher stability of the economy. The function of municipalities and higher territorial units is secured by so-called special purpose tax revenues, which do not go into the state budget but directly into the budgets of self-governments. This research contribution focuses on the revenue side of budgets of public administration institutions for the period of the last five concluding budget years. The analysis demonstrates the meaning and importance of tax revenues for the mentioned institutions as well as the expenditure side of the state budget. In this contribution, a comparative study identified the changes that occurred in the individual years of the presented range and subsequently, evaluated fiscal decentralization and its influence on the revenue side of budgets of municipalities.

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Scenario approach in forecasting tax revenues of the state budget of Ukraine

Economics ecology socium ◽

10.31520/2616-7107/2019.3.3-4 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 27-34

Author(s):

Valentyna Martynenko

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Income Tax ◽

Value Added ◽

Business Environment ◽

The State ◽

State Budget ◽

Excise Tax ◽

Tax Revenues ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators ◽

Scenario Approach

Introduction. State revenue management stands first in the areas of government regulation, which is provided by the regulation of fiscal policy. It is achieved by optimizing the amount of nationwide taxes and their tax rates, with the least amount of tax evasion. It is also important to ensure the implementation of the budget process, which is based on budget planning and forecasting, the effectiveness criterion of which is the reliability of the forecast. The compulsory component of extrapolation of time series – the most used forecasting method – is the scenario approach, so the research of possibilities of its implementation is relevant. Aim and tasks. The aim of the article is to introduce a scenario approach in forecasting tax revenues of the state budget of Ukraine. The main tasks set to achieve this aim are: modeling the dependence of tax revenues on macroeconomic indicators; trend analysis and extrapolation of time series of macroeconomic indicators; development of forecast scenarios of state budget revenues from state taxes. Results. It is proved that comprehensive stimulation of the production of gross value added, especially in the sphere of material production, as a basis for economic growth, will have a positive impact on the growth of output of goods and services, as well as will provide an increase in the revenues from value added tax (VAT) and excise tax to the state budget. Provision at the state level of further growth of the minimum wage and the deployment of social programs, as well as stimulating the legalization of shadow incomes of individuals in order to stimulate incomes of the population will lead to revenue increase from the personal income tax to the state budget. Creating favorable conditions for doing business by creating a business environment free from corruption, legalizing the shadow income of legal entities in order to maximize the profit of gross profit, mixed income will lead to an increase in corporate income tax revenues and subsoil use fee to the state budget of Ukraine. Conclusions. Over the next 5 years, aggregate tax revenues to the state budget will increase, regardless of the forecast scenario. The largest contribution to tax revenue growth can be provided by excise tax. The dynamics of the remaining taxes will also be increasing. Because the extrapolation of time series and scenario analysis are applied and universal methods of forecasting, they can be used in forecasting tax revenues of both consolidated and local budgets of Ukraine. Prospects for further research of the author will be relevant to these areas.

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FINANCIAL RESOURCES OF HOUSEHOLDS AS A COMPONENT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

International scientific journal Internauka Series Economical Sciences ◽

10.25313/2520-2294-2021-1-6809 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Olga Kremen ◽

◽

Viktoriia Kremen ◽

Anastasiia Kulsha ◽

Ielyzaveta Vakhnenko ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

National Economy ◽

Inverse Relationship ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

The State ◽

Financial Resources ◽

Public Confidence ◽

Household Savings ◽

State Budget ◽

The Impact

The financial resources of households, provided they are involved in the financial sector, can be a significant basis for investment, production development, and economic growth. The purpose of the article is to identify the impact of forming investment potential based on the population's savings to ensure the economic growth of the national economy. The composition, size, and structure of households were analyzed in the work. The amount of household savings is mostly influenced by the demographic situation and the number of households. During 2010-2018, the average household size in Ukraine did not change significantly. It amounted to 2.58 people, while the number of households decreased significantly to 2064.4 thousand, reduce the share of people living in urban settlements. In 2019, the downward trend in households' number was maintained with the same structure of urban and rural households. The correlation coefficients calculated in the process of the correlationregression analysis show that there is a very close direct relationship between the volume of savings and expenditures of households and GDP, the volume of sold industrial products, revenues and expenditures of the state budget; there is a moderate inverse relationship between household savings and expenditures and government budget imports and deficits; there is a weak inverse relationship between household savings and expenditures and public debt. Ukraine has objective preconditions for the formation of household savings and their transformation into investments. The main tasks for increasing the role of household savings in the growth of the national economy are the following: to restore public confidence in financial institutions; strengthening the institutional protection of savings by maintaining the liquidity of banking institutions, and ensuring the functioning of the state deposit guarantee system; ensuring the development of the savings market as a socio-economic mechanism for mobilizing the population's money savings and transforming them into investments for the national economy.

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Monitoring the Impact of Tax Avoidance on the State Budget of Ukraine

Modern Economics ◽

10.31521/modecon.v23(2020)-14 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 89-94

Author(s):

Natalia Lagodienko ◽

◽

Victoriia Palamarchuk ◽

Vladyslav Hamaiun ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tax Evasion ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Tax Avoidance ◽

The State ◽

Economic Situation ◽

State Budget ◽

Tax System ◽

Tax Revenues ◽

Tax Legislation ◽

The Impact

Introduction. Due to unstable economic situation in the country, the constant state budget deficit, the high level of the shadow economy in Ukraine and the crisis in the world, it is necessary to develop effective mechanisms to combat tax evasion, improve tax legislation and reform the tax system. The level of tax evasion in Ukraine tends to increase steadily. Therefore, there is a need to study the problem of tax evasion in Ukraine and its impact on the economy. Purpose. The main purpose of the study is to monitor the impact of tax evasion on the state budget of Ukraine. Results. The impact of tax evasion on the state budget of Ukraine in the conditions of unstable economic situation was monitored. The regulatory framework of Ukraine on tax evasion is indicated. Schematically presents the composition of a criminal offense – tax evasion. The dynamics of revenues of the state and consolidated budgets of Ukraine are presented. The dynamics of tax revenues to the state and consolidated budgets of Ukraine is analyzed. The average indicators of revenues of the state and consolidated budgets, the average indicators of the share of tax revenues in the total revenues of the state and consolidated budgets of Ukraine during the study period are calculated. The main schemes of tax evasion in Ukraine and conditional losses from them for the state budget are studied. The level of tax burden in the state is determined and its dynamics are presented. It has been proven that tax evasion has a negative impact on Ukraine’s economy. Conclusions. We are convinced that the introduction of effective mechanisms to combat tax evasion, adaptation to modern conditions of digitalization, improvement and updating of tax legislation, increasing trust between taxpayers and the state, combating bureaucracy and corruption, reforming the tax system – all this will help educate Ukrainian citizens. tax responsible population, minimize opportunities for tax evasion, reduce accounts payable and the impact of creditors on the economy and political situation in the country, improve economic performance in the country, increase the level of economic and national security of Ukraine.

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The Ukrainian Market of Ecological Tourism: The Current Trends and Development

Ukrainian Journal of Ecology ◽

10.15421/2019_795 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 599-606

Author(s):

V. O. Shvedun ◽

V. Streltsov ◽

K. O. Husarov ◽

S. I. Sysoieva ◽

R. M. Sheludko ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

The State ◽

Domestic Product ◽

State Support ◽

State Budget ◽

Current Trends ◽

Ecological Region ◽

Ecological Tourism ◽

The Impact ◽

The Given

The analysis of current trends in ecological tourism market of Ukraine and set of recommendations for its development under the state support are carried out in the research work. In particular, the analysis of the current condition of ecological tourism in Ukraine is carried out. The essence of this analysis is to assess the impact of the following factors on the gross domestic product of Ukraine during the past three years: number of foreign tourists in Ukraine, number of tourism objects, revenues from ecological tourism to local budgets, revenues from environmental tourism to the state budget, number of jobs in the field of ecological tourism and number of domestic tourists. The given analysis showed that the gross domestic product of Ukraine is practically unaffected by the following factors: number of foreign tourists in Ukraine, revenues from ecological tourism to local budgets and revenues from ecological tourism to the state budget. The recommendations on state support of ecological tourism development in Ukraine by introducing a set of models to increase the competitiveness of Ukrainian environmental regions, taking into account the level of influence of the studied factors on the gross domestic product, are developed. The given set of models includes a functional model of the tourism competitiveness of ecological region and a structural model for assessing of tourism competitiveness of ecological region.

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IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEBT ON FINANCIAL SECURITY OF UKRAINE

International scientific journal Internauka Series Economical Sciences ◽

10.25313/2520-2294-2020-11-6560 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Olena Pikaliuk ◽

◽

Dmitry Kovalenko ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

Positive Impact ◽

The State ◽

Financial Security ◽

State Budget ◽

The Public ◽

Debt Security ◽

The Stability ◽

The Impact

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.

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DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan ◽

10.31685/kek.v15i2.91 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 37-52

Author(s):

Mahpud Sujai

Keyword(s):

Linear Trend ◽

The State ◽

Oil Price ◽

Output Gap ◽

State Budget ◽

Price Changes ◽

Potential Output ◽

Budget Cycle ◽

Actual Output ◽

The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

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