scholarly journals Accumulation studies on Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, by means of tritium, dielectric profiling and stable-isotope measurements: first results from the 1995–96 and 1996–97 field seasons

1999 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Oerter ◽  
Wolfgang Graf ◽  
Frank Wilhelms ◽  
Andreas Minikin ◽  
Heinz Miller
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Significant Trend ◽  
Deuterium Content ◽  
Accumulation Rates ◽  
Electrical Measurements ◽  
First Results ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Isotope Content

AbstractThe paper focuses on studies of snow-pit samples and shallow firn cores taken during the 1995-96 and 1996-97 field seasons at Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The dating of the firn is based on the artificial tritium distribution in the snow cover and on several reference horizons identified by electrical measurements. The early 1964 through 1965 horizon is marked by the deposition of sulfate released to the atmosphere during the eruption of the Agung volcano in March 1963; this horizon was detected by dielectric profiling and electrical conductivity measurements: the proof by chemical analysis has still to be seen. At the ten investigated sites on Amundsenisen the 1964-65 horizon was identified 4.1-5.7 m below the surface. The accumulation rates on Amundsenisen are 41-91kg m-2 a−1 The cores are up to 100 years old A relationship between isotope content and the mean air temperature on a regional scale can be based on measurements of firn temperature at 10 m depth at the drilling sites Between Neumayer station at the coast and Heimefrontfiella, the temperature gradient of the deuterium content is 9.6%0 K−1. South of Heimefrontfiella, on the Amundsenisen plateau, it is only 5.5‰ K−1. Time series of yearly accumulation rates show no significant trend For the isotope records a significant trend to higher values with gradients of 0.1-0.2 δ2H‰a−1 can be seen in five of the ten time series

scholarly journals Estimating annual groundwater recharge coefficient for karst aquifers of the southern Apennines (Italy)

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 803-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Allocca ◽  
F. Manna ◽  
P. De Vita
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Karst Aquifer ◽  
Spring Discharge ◽  
Karst Aquifers ◽  
Southern Apennines ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Groundwater Outflow

Abstract. To assess the mean annual groundwater recharge of the karst aquifers in the southern Apennines (Italy), the estimation of the mean annual groundwater recharge coefficient (AGRC) was conducted by means of an integrated approach based on hydrogeological, hydrological, geomorphological, land use and soil cover analyses. Starting from the hydrological budget equation, the coefficient was conceived as the ratio between the net groundwater outflow and the precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration (P − ETR) for a karst aquifer. A large part of the southern Apennines, which is covered by a meteorological network containing 40 principal karst aquifers, was studied. Using precipitation and air temperature time series gathered through monitoring stations operating in the period 1926–2012, the mean annual P − ETR was estimated, and its distribution was modelled at a regional scale by considering the orographic barrier and rain shadow effects of the Apennine chain, as well as the altitudinal control. Four sample karst aquifers with available long spring discharge time series were identified for estimating the AGRC. The resulting values were correlated with other parameters that control groundwater recharge, such as the extension of outcropping karst rocks, morphological settings, land use and covering soil type. A multiple linear regression between the AGRC, lithology and the summit plateau and endorheic areas was found. This empirical model was used to assess the AGRC and mean annual groundwater recharge in other regional karst aquifers. The coefficient was calculated as ranging between 50 and 79%, thus being comparable with other similar estimations carried out for karst aquifers of European and Mediterranean countries. The mean annual groundwater recharge for karst aquifers of the southern Apennines was assessed by these characterizations and validated by a comparison with available groundwater outflow measurements. These results represent a deeper understanding of an aspect of groundwater hydrology in karst aquifers which is fundamental for the formulation of appropriate management models of groundwater resources at a regional scale, also taking into account mitigation strategies for climate change impacts. Finally, the proposed hydrological characterizations are also supposed to be useful for the assessment of mean annual runoff over carbonate mountains, which is another important topic concerning water management in the southern Apennines.

Der Sommer und Herbst 2003 aus phänologischer Sicht | Summer and autumn 2003 from a phenological point of view

2004 ◽  
Vol 155 (5) ◽  
pp. 142-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Defila
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Record ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Leaf Shedding ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Very High ◽  
Selection Of

The record-breaking heatwave of 2003 also had an impact on the vegetation in Switzerland. To examine its influences seven phenological late spring and summer phases were evaluated together with six phases in the autumn from a selection of stations. 30% of the 122 chosen phenological time series in late spring and summer phases set a new record (earliest arrival). The proportion of very early arrivals is very high and the mean deviation from the norm is between 10 and 20 days. The situation was less extreme in autumn, where 20% of the 103 time series chosen set a new record. The majority of the phenological arrivals were found in the class «normal» but the class«very early» is still well represented. The mean precocity lies between five and twenty days. As far as the leaf shedding of the beech is concerned, there was even a slight delay of around six days. The evaluation serves to show that the heatwave of 2003 strongly influenced the phenological events of summer and spring.

scholarly journals The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 1: Wilcox effect revisited

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Prikryl ◽  
V. Rušin ◽  
M. Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Coronal Holes ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Sector Boundary ◽  
Speed Solar Wind ◽  
The Mean ◽  
High Speed Solar Wind

Abstract. A sun-weather correlation, namely the link between solar magnetic sector boundary passage (SBP) by the Earth and upper-level tropospheric vorticity area index (VAI), that was found by Wilcox et al. (1974) and shown to be statistically significant by Hines and Halevy (1977) is revisited. A minimum in the VAI one day after SBP followed by an increase a few days later was observed. Using the ECMWF ERA-40 re-analysis dataset for the original period from 1963 to 1973 and extending it to 2002, we have verified what has become known as the "Wilcox effect" for the Northern as well as the Southern Hemisphere winters. The effect persists through years of high and low volcanic aerosol loading except for the Northern Hemisphere at 500 mb, when the VAI minimum is weak during the low aerosol years after 1973, particularly for sector boundaries associated with south-to-north reversals of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) BZ component. The "disappearance" of the Wilcox effect was found previously by Tinsley et al. (1994) who suggested that enhanced stratospheric volcanic aerosols and changes in air-earth current density are necessary conditions for the effect. The present results indicate that the Wilcox effect does not require high aerosol loading to be detected. The results are corroborated by a correlation with coronal holes where the fast solar wind originates. Ground-based measurements of the green coronal emission line (Fe XIV, 530.3 nm) are used in the superposed epoch analysis keyed by the times of sector boundary passage to show a one-to-one correspondence between the mean VAI variations and coronal holes. The VAI is modulated by high-speed solar wind streams with a delay of 1–2 days. The Fourier spectra of VAI time series show peaks at periods similar to those found in the solar corona and solar wind time series. In the modulation of VAI by solar wind the IMF BZ seems to control the phase of the Wilcox effect and the depth of the VAI minimum. The mean VAI response to SBP associated with the north-to-south reversal of BZ is leading by up to 2 days the mean VAI response to SBP associated with the south-to-north reversal of BZ. For the latter, less geoeffective events, the VAI minimum deepens (with the above exception of the Northern Hemisphere low-aerosol 500-mb VAI) and the VAI maximum is delayed. The phase shift between the mean VAI responses obtained for these two subsets of SBP events may explain the reduced amplitude of the overall Wilcox effect. In a companion paper, Prikryl et al. (2009) propose a new mechanism to explain the Wilcox effect, namely that solar-wind-generated auroral atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) influence the growth of extratropical cyclones. It is also observed that severe extratropical storms, explosive cyclogenesis and significant sea level pressure deepenings of extratropical storms tend to occur within a few days of the arrival of high-speed solar wind. These observations are discussed in the context of the proposed AGW mechanism as well as the previously suggested atmospheric electrical current (AEC) model (Tinsley et al., 1994), which requires the presence of stratospheric aerosols for a significant (Wilcox) effect.

scholarly journals Technical note: Inherent benchmark or not? Comparing Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency scores

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 4323-4331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter J. M. Knoben ◽  
Jim E. Freer ◽  
Ross A. Woods
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Model Adequacy ◽  
Robust Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Adequacy Assessment

Abstract. A traditional metric used in hydrology to summarize model performance is the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Increasingly an alternative metric, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), is used instead. When NSE is used, NSE = 0 corresponds to using the mean flow as a benchmark predictor. The same reasoning is applied in various studies that use KGE as a metric: negative KGE values are viewed as bad model performance, and only positive values are seen as good model performance. Here we show that using the mean flow as a predictor does not result in KGE = 0, but instead KGE =1-√2≈-0.41. Thus, KGE values greater than −0.41 indicate that a model improves upon the mean flow benchmark – even if the model's KGE value is negative. NSE and KGE values cannot be directly compared, because their relationship is non-unique and depends in part on the coefficient of variation of the observed time series. Therefore, modellers who use the KGE metric should not let their understanding of NSE values guide them in interpreting KGE values and instead develop new understanding based on the constitutive parts of the KGE metric and the explicit use of benchmark values to compare KGE scores against. More generally, a strong case can be made for moving away from ad hoc use of aggregated efficiency metrics and towards a framework based on purpose-dependent evaluation metrics and benchmarks that allows for more robust model adequacy assessment.

Creation of physiologic rhythm by closed loop stimulation in heart failure patients with severe chronotropic incompetence: worldwide first results of a pilot study

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Proff ◽  
B Merkely ◽  
R Papp ◽  
C Lenz ◽  
P.J Nordbeck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Chronotropic Incompetence ◽  
First Results ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
Group 1

Abstract Background The prevalence of chronotropic incompetence (CI) in heart failure (HF) population is high and negatively impacts prognosis. In HF patients with an implanted cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) device and severe CI, the effect of rate adaptive pacing on patient outcomes is unclear. Closed loop stimulation (CLS) based on cardiac impedance measurement may be an optimal method of heart rate adaptation according to metabolic need in HF patients with severe CI. Purpose This is the first study evaluating the effect of CLS on the established prognostic parameters assessed by the cardio-pulmonary exercise (CPX) testing and on quality of life (QoL) of the patients. Methods A randomised, controlled, double-blind and crossover pilot study has been performed in CRT patients with severe CI defined as the inability to achieve 70% of the age-predicted maximum heart rate (APMHR). After baseline assessment, patients were randomised to either DDD-CLS pacing (group 1) or DDD pacing at 40 bpm (group 2) for a 1-month period, followed by crossover for another month. At baseline and at 1- and 2-month follow-ups, a CPX was performed and QoL was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire. The main endpoints were the effect of CLS on ventilatory efficiency (VE) slope (evaluated by an independent CPX expert), the responder rate defined as an improvement (decrease) of the VE slope by at least 5%, percentage of maximal predicted heart rate reserve (HRR) achieved, and QoL. Results Of the 36 patients enrolled in the study, 20 fulfilled the criterion for severe CI and entered the study follow-up (mean age 68.9±7.4 years, 70% men, LVEF=41.8±9.3%, 40%/60% NYHA class II/III). Full baseline and follow-up datasets were obtained in 17 patients. The mean VE slope and HRR at baseline were 34.4±4.4 and 49.6±23.8%, respectively, in group 1 (n=7) and 34.5±12.2 and 54.2±16.1% in group 2 (n=10). After completing the 2-month CPX, the mean difference between DDD-CLS and DDD-40 modes was −2.4±8.3 (group 1) and −1.2±3.5 (group 2) for VE slope, and 17.1±15.5% (group 1) and 8.7±18.8% (group 2) for HRR. Altogether, VE slope improved by −1.8±2.95 (p=0.31) in DDD-CLS versus DDD-40, and HRR improved by 12.9±8.8% (p=0.01). The VE slope decreased by ≥5% in 47% of patients (“responders to CLS”). The mean difference in the QoL between DDD-CLS and DDD-40 was 0.16±0.25 in group 1 and −0.01±0.05 in group 2, resulting in an overall increase by 0.08±0.08 in the DDD-CLS mode (p=0.13). Conclusion First results of the evaluation of the effectiveness of CLS in CRT patients with severe CI revealed that CLS generated an overall positive effect on well-established surrogate parameters for prognosis. About one half of the patients showed CLS response in terms of improved VE slope. In addition, CLS improved quality of life. Further clinical research is needed to identify predictors that can increase the responder rate and to confirm improvement in clinical outcomes. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Biotronik SE & Co. KG

scholarly journals Modeling of Lake Malombe Annual Fish Landings and Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE)

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-55
Author(s):  
Rodgers Makwinja ◽  
Seyoum Mengistou ◽  
Emmanuel Kaunda ◽  
Tena Alemiew ◽  
Titus Bandulo Phiri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Annual Fish ◽  
Unit Effort ◽  
The Mean

Forecasting, using time series data, has become the most relevant and effective tool for fisheries stock assessment. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling has been commonly used to predict the general trend for fish landings with increased reliability and precision. In this paper, ARIMA models were applied to predict Lake Malombe annual fish landings and catch per unit effort (CPUE). The annual fish landings and CPUE trends were first observed and both were non-stationary. The first-order differencing was applied to transform the non-stationary data into stationary. Autocorrelation functions (AC), partial autocorrelation function (PAC), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), square root of the mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), percentage standard error of prediction (SEP), average relative variance (ARV), Gaussian maximum likelihood estimation (GMLE) algorithm, efficiency coefficient (E2), coefficient of determination (R2), and persistent index (PI) were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of ARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting. According to the measures of forecasting accuracy, the best forecasting models for fish landings and CPUE were ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,0). These models had the lowest values AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, SEP, ARV. The models further displayed the highest values of GMLE, PI, R2, and E2. The “auto. arima ()” command in R version 3.6.3 further displayed ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,0) as the best. The selected models satisfactorily forecasted the fish landings of 2725.243 metric tons and CPUE of 0.097 kg/h by 2024.

First glaciological investigations at Ridge B, central East Antarctica

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Alexey A. Ekaykin ◽  
Alexey V. Bolshunov ◽  
Vladimir Ya. Lipenkov ◽  
Mirko Scheinert ◽  
Lutz Eberlein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Antarctica ◽  
Snow Density ◽  
Deep Drilling ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
First Results ◽  
Vostok Station ◽  
Water Stable Isotope ◽  
Isotope Content ◽  
Firn Core

Abstract The region of Ridge B in central East Antarctica is one of the last unexplored parts of the continent and, at the same time, ranks among the most promising places to search for Earth's oldest ice. In January 2020, we carried out the first scientific traverse from Russia's Vostok Station to the topographical dome of Ridge B (Dome B, 3807 m above sea level, 79.02°S, 93.69°E). The glaciological programme included continuous snow-radar profiling and geodetic positioning along the traverse's route, installation of snow stakes, measurements of snow density, collection of samples for stable water isotope and chemical analyses and drilling of a 20 m firn core. The first results of the traverse show that the surface mass balance at Dome B (2.28 g cm−2 year−1) is among the lowest in Antarctica. The firn temperature below the layer of annual variations is −58.1 ± 0.2°C. A very low value of heavy water stable isotope content (-58.2‰ for oxygen-18) was discovered at a distance of 170 km from Vostok Station. This work is the first step towards a comprehensive reconnaissance study of the Ridge B area aimed at locating the best site for future deep drilling for the oldest Antarctic ice.

scholarly journals Distance variable improvement of time-series big data stream evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ari Wibisono ◽  
Petrus Mursanto ◽  
Jihan Adibah ◽  
Wendy D. W. T. Bayu ◽  
May Iffah Rizki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Standard Method ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Traffic Demand ◽  
Incremental Model ◽  
Chernoff Bound ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Real-time information mining of a big dataset consisting of time series data is a very challenging task. For this purpose, we propose using the mean distance and the standard deviation to enhance the accuracy of the existing fast incremental model tree with the drift detection (FIMT-DD) algorithm. The standard FIMT-DD algorithm uses the Hoeffding bound as its splitting criterion. We propose the further use of the mean distance and standard deviation, which are used to split a tree more accurately than the standard method. We verify our proposed method using the large Traffic Demand Dataset, which consists of 4,000,000 instances; Tennet’s big wind power plant dataset, which consists of 435,268 instances; and a road weather dataset, which consists of 30,000,000 instances. The results show that our proposed FIMT-DD algorithm improves the accuracy compared to the standard method and Chernoff bound approach. The measured errors demonstrate that our approach results in a lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in every stage of learning by approximately 2.49% compared with the Chernoff Bound method and 19.65% compared with the standard method.

scholarly journals Small-scale spatio-temporal characteristics of accumulation rates in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (185) ◽  
pp. 315-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helgard Anschütz ◽  
Daniel Steinhage ◽  
Olaf Eisen ◽  
Hans Oerter ◽  
Martin Horwath ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Accumulation Rates ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Ground Penetrating ◽  
Firn Core

AbstractSpatio-temporal variations of the recently determined accumulation rate are investigated using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements and firn-core studies. The study area is located on Ritscherflya in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, at an elevation range 1400–1560 m. Accumulation rates are derived from internal reflection horizons (IRHs), tracked with GPR, which are connected to a dated firn core. GPR-derived internal layer depths show small relief along a 22 km profile on an ice flowline. Average accumulation rates are about 190 kg m−2 a−1 (1980–2005) with spatial variability (1σ) of 5% along the GPR profile. The interannual variability obtained from four dated firn cores is one order of magnitude higher, showing 1σ standard deviations around 30%. Mean temporal variations of GPRderived accumulation rates are of the same magnitude or even higher than spatial variations. Temporal differences between 1980–90 and 1990–2005, obtained from two dated IRHs along the GPR profile, indicate temporally non-stationary processes, linked to spatial variations. Comparison with similarly obtained accumulation data from another coastal area in central Dronning Maud Land confirms this observation. Our results contribute to understanding spatio-temporal variations of the accumulation processes, necessary for the validation of satellite data (e.g. altimetry studies and gravity missions such as Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)).

The Initial Return and Its Conditional Return Volatility: Evidence from the Chinese IPO Market

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (04) ◽  
pp. 1450022 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Monica Hussein ◽  
Zhong-Guo Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Functions ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Variance Model ◽  
Initial Return ◽  
Traditional Market ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Sectional Analysis

This paper investigates the monthly initial return and its conditional return volatility for Chinese IPOs. We find that the mean initial return (IR) and cross-sectional return volatility are highly auto- and cross-correlated, and time-varying. We propose a system of two simultaneous equations: a GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) process with an ARMA(1,1) adjustment in the residuals for the IR and an EGARCH process for the conditional return volatility, assuming that the IR and its conditional return volatility are linear functions of the same market, firm- and offer-specific characteristics. We find that the model captures both time-series and cross-sectional correlations at the mean and variance levels. Our findings suggest that the conditional return volatility affects the IR positively and significantly, in addition to the traditional market, firm- and offer-specific characteristics. IPOs with higher conditional return volatility, as a proxy for information asymmetry, tend to be underpriced more. The paper demonstrates the merit of using a conditional variance model, along with time series and cross-sectional analysis to price Chinese IPOs.

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